SIAM Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers
October 2014
Seoul
State of the Indian Automobile Industry
Latest Performance Review
A SIAM Presentation 2
Performance & Growth
A SIAM Presentation 3
2 Wheelers : 14.8 Mn
3 Wheelers : 0.48 Mn
Passenger Vehicles : 2.5 Mn
Commercial Vehicles : 0.63 Mn
Industry Estimates Employment (Direct + Indirect) : 2 Mn+27 Mn
Domestic Sales (number of vehicles)
Investment from FY 09 - FY 14 : USD 13.5 Bn
Contribution to manufacturing GDP : 47.3%
Source: SIAM, IMACs
A SIAM Presentation
SIAM
14% 3% 3%
80%
Passenger Vehicles (2,503,685)
Two Wheelers (14,805,481)
Three Wheelers (479,634)
Commercial Vehicles (632,738)
4
51%
19% 2%
28%
Passenger Vehicles Commercial Vehicles
Three Wheelers Two Wheelers
Segmentation: By Volume Segmentation: By Value
Source: SIAM
Ashok Leyland Ltd
0.02
Fiat India
Automobiles,
0.42
Force
Motors
0.11
Ford
India,
3.29
General Motors India
2.28
Hindustan Motor Finance
Corporation
0.06
Hindustan Motors
0.01
Honda Cars India
7.04
Hyundai Motor India
16.21
Isuzu Motors India
0.01
Mahindra & Mahindra
8.84 Maruti Suzuki India
44.58
Nissan Motor
India
2.06
Renault India
1.68
Skoda Auto India
0.58 Tata Motors
5.84
Toyota Kirloskar Motor
5.36
Volkswagen
India Pvt Ltd
1.62
AMW Motors
0.56 Ashok Leyland
13.48
Force Motors
3.50
Isuzu Motors India
0.12
Mahindra & Mahindra
25.72
Piaggio Vehicles
1.03 SML Isuzu
2.04
Tata Motors
47.40
VECVs – Eicher
6.01
VECVs – Volvo
0.16
Sl.No
Models Sep 2014 (Sales Nos)
1 Maruti Suzuki Alto 19,906
2 Maruti Suzuki Swift 17,265
3 Maruti Suzuki DZIRE 16,964
4 Maruti Suzuki Wagon R 15,641
5 Hyundai Elite i20 8,902
6 Mahindra Bolero 8,541
7 Hyundai Grand i10 7,285
8 Maruti Suzuki Omni 6,659
9 Hyundai Eon 6,489
10 Maruti Suzuki Celerio 6,382
Alto Swift
Dzire Wagon R
Grand i10 Elite i20
Bolero Omni
Celerio Eon
Category Model September 2014 A: Passenger Cars Micro Tata Nano 1,703
Mini Maruti Suzuki Alto 19,906
Compact Maruti Suzuki Swift 17,265
Super Compact Toyota Etios Sedan 1,638
Mid-Size Honda City 4,600
Executive Toyota Corolla 791
Premium Skoda Superb 125
B: Utility Vehicles(UVs) UV1 Mahindra Bolero 6,850
UV2 Mahindra Scorpio 6,060
UV3 Force Trax 299
UV4 Toyota Fortuner 1,745
UV5 Toyota Land Cruiser 10
C: Vans
V1 Maruti Suzuki Omni 6,659
V2 Tata ACE Magic 1,566
A SIAM Presentation Source: SIAM, IMACs 9
Items Unit 2003-04 2013-14 Growth
Total Volume (in numbers) ‘000 6,811 18,422 2.7x
Passenger Vehicles ‘000 902 2,504 2.8x
Commercial Vehicles ‘000 260 633 2.4x
Two Wheelers ‘000 5,364 14,805 2.8x
Three Wheelers ‘000 284 480 1.7x
Domestic Sales Revenue (OEM) US $ billion 15 40 2.7x
Vehicles Exports Revenue US $ billion 1 8 7.2x
Share of GDP % 4.5% 7.1% 1.6x
(1 USD @ Rs. 60)
Production (January -December ) Data in units 2012 2013 % Change Passenger Cars (1)* 3,296,240 3,138,988 -4.77
Commercial Vehicles (2) 878,473 741,950 -15.54
Total Motor Vehicles (1)+(2) 4,174,713 3,880,938 -7.04
Domestic Sales (January -December ) Data in units 2012 2013 % Change Passenger Cars (1)* 2,753,161 2,553,979 -7.23
Commercial Vehicles (2) 813,821 687,230 -15.56
Total Motor Vehicles (1)+(2) 3,566,982 3,241,209 -9.13
Exports (January -December ) Data in units 2012 2013 % Change Passenger Cars (1)* 551,522 593,453 7.60
Commercial Vehicles (2) 89,221 72,170 -19.11
Total Motor Vehicles (1)+(2) 640,743 665,623 3.88
Note: * BMW, Mercedes, Audi and JLR data not reported
Production (January -September) Data in units 2013 2014 % Change
Passenger Cars (1)* 2,407,278 2,388,674 -0.77
Commercial Vehicles (2) 585,855 517,323 -11.70
Total Motor Vehicles (1)+(2) 2,993,133 2,905,997 -2.91
Domestic Sales (January -September) Data in units 2013 2014 % Change
Passenger Cars (1)* 1,927,176 1,927,917 0.04
Commercial Vehicles (2) 543,251 455,633 -16.13
Total Motor Vehicles (1)+(2) 2,470,427 2,383,550 -3.52
Exports (January -September) Data in units 2013 2014 % Change
Passenger Cars (1)* 452,001 447,721 -0.95
Commercial Vehicles (2) 53,399 63,815 19.51
Total Motor Vehicles (1)+(2) 505,400 511,536 1.21
Note: * BMW, Mercedes, Audi and JLR data not reported
A SIAM Presentation
Facing slowdown over the last 2-3 years
Vehicle Segment (‘000) FY 02 FY 12 CAGR
FY 02-12
Passenger Vehicles 686 2,629 14.4%
Commercial Vehicles 136 833 19.9%
FY 14 CAGR
FY 12-14
2,501 -2.5%
633 -12.8%
Source: SIAM 12
Domestic Sales (number of vehicles)
Vehicle Segment (‘000) FY 02 FY 12 CAGR
FY 02-12
Passenger Vehicles 686 2,629 14.4%
Commercial Vehicles 136 833 19.9%
FY 14 CAGR
FY 12-14 Growth
6m FY 15
2,501 -2.5% 4.3%
633 -12.8% -10.1%
Domestic Sales (number of vehicles)
Early signs of domestic demand recovery
A SIAM Presentation
Passenger Vehicles-Trends
PVs=Cars + UVs + Vans- Trends
• 4% in H1 F15 over H1 F14
61
5
63
7
1,2
52
Q1 Q2 H1
Passenger Vehicle Sales ‘000s
F14 F15
1% 7% 4%
A SIAM Presentation
CVs-Trends
• -10% in H1F15 over H1 F14
141
152
294
Q1 Q2 H1
Commercial Vehicles‘000s
F14 F15
-10% -4% -16%
A SIAM Presentation
178
20
166
23
PVs CVs
Q2 Exports ‘000s
Q2 F14 Q2 F15
-7% 11%
20% Exports as a % of Production in Q2 13%
Source: SIAM Data
15
A SIAM Presentation 16
F15 Outlook
A SIAM Presentation
SIAM 17
Sensex Foreign financial investment (FIIs)
20.5 21.1 22.4 22.4
24.2 25.4 25.9 26.6 27.2
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Jan
-14
Feb
-14
Mar
-14
Ap
r-1
4
May
-14
Jun
-14
Jul-
14
Au
g-1
4
Sep
-14
(Till
dat
e)
Mill
iers
All time high
711
3422
1258
9304
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Net
FII
infl
ow
, $ M
illio
n
7 times high
April - August
Monthly Source: CMIE
A SIAM Presentation
SIAM 18
GDP recovery Some respite in Inflation
4.5 4.6
4.4 4.4 4.7
5.2
4.6 4.6
5.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun
-14
Gro
wth
Yo
Y, %
10.2 9.9 10.1 10.7
9.5 9.7 10.4
8.4 8.1
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun
-14
CP
I Yo
Y, %
Source: CMIE
A SIAM Presentation
SIAM 19
Current account deficit Business confidence index
135 127 125
120 114
118
103
122 127
143
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Apr-
12
Jul-
12
Oct-
12
Jan-1
3
Apr-
13
Jul-
13
Oct-
13
Jan-1
4
Apr-
14
Jul-
14
BC
I Q
uart
erl
y
3.98
4.95
6.49
3.49
4.78
1.2 0.87
0.24
1.65
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun
-14
Cu
rre
nt
acco
un
t d
efic
it %
of
GD
P
Source: CMIE and NCAER
A SIAM Presentation
Some early signs of revival in demand. However business environment continues to be challenging
◦ Economic growth – Seen improving but still to take root
◦ Inflation – still not under control
◦ Vehicle finance rates – Continues to be high
◦ Consumer Sentiment - Significantly Improved
◦ Product Offering - Number of new models launched
Key Concerns
◦ Commercial vehicle segment continues to be strained but improving
◦ High inflation
◦ Vehicle finance rates high
◦ FOREX rate fluctuation
◦ Higher Excise duty rates expected to be reinstated in January 2015
20
A SIAM Presentation
Need to watch economic growth trend, inflation, interest rates, fuel prices and commodity prices.
Also, need to watch Government policy initiatives in terms of project implementation, infrastructure development and revival in mining activity.
Industry needs to grow at a pace much faster than in recent times to get back to growth path.
21
A SIAM Presentation 22
A SIAM Presentation
• A key objective is to address India’s increasing crude oil deficit,
which poses a serious challenge to its fuel security
• Concerted efforts are required across a range of solutions to
meet India’s fuel security objective
• Alternate mobility solutions include xEVs such as HEV, PHEV,
ER-EV and BEV
• xEV and CNG adoption could help meet our objective of fuel
security through significant fuel savings
• Apart from regulations, cost of batteries is a key factor in xEV
demand, which is expected to decline substantially by 2020
A SIAM Presentation
To achieve the desirable outcomes stated in NEMMP 2020, Government of India, will focus on four broad areas:
Demand creation through:
Incentives (cash subsidy) for various xEVs
Mandates for some segments such as public transport vehicles
On road vehicles through hybrid retrofitment
Domestic manufacturing through:
Linking incentives with localization content in a phased manner
Various tax rebates such as excise duty, corporate tax
Research, Development & Demonstration through:
Creating Centre of Excellence for accelerated development and tangible outcomes of research work at component level
Pilot projects to test and assess the impact of xEVs and spread awareness
Infrastructure creation through PPP or private players for:
Power infrastructure
Charging infrastructure
A SIAM Presentation
The Government has set up a robust mechanism for disbursement
of incentives, for ensuring quality of products and for value
addition in the country.
a) b)
- c)
A SIAM Presentation
Potential
xEV
Sales by
2020
Decrease
in CO2
Fuel
Savings Jobs
xEV
Sales Till
2020
9500 Mi Liters
24 Mi
Ton
250,000~300,000
15 Million
6~7 Million (YoY)
A SIAM Presentation
Incentives to consumers based on Life Cycle Analysis (TCO Modeling) and Projected Desirable Sales.
All segments (Inclusive) and technology types (Technology Neutral). Prioritization of vehicle segments based on two broad objectives of maximizing potential for fuel savings and potential for mass adoption.
Setting-up Qualifying Criteria focusing on Quality (Safety and Emissions), Performance (Fuel Savings) & Value Addition (Make in India)
Setting-up an e-Enabled Incentive Delivery Mechanism to create efficient and robust mechanism.
Fiscal support in terms of tax policies – import and excise duty rebate aiming at promoting domestic manufacturing
PPP in R&D and Charging Infrastructure.
A SIAM Presentation 28
SIAM Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers