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Strategies and Policy/Technology Instruments for Sustainable Land Use and Transport
- International Comparisons -
Yoshitsugu Hayashi Director, International Research Center for Sustainable Transport
and Cities, Nagoya University, Japan
Chair, Scientific Committee of WCTRS (World Conference on Transport Research Society)
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 1
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PUTTING TRANSPORT INTO
CLIMATE POLICY AGENDA
World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTRS)
http://www.wctrs.org/
December 2011
URGENT!
There is an urgent need to involve transport as a major sector in the climate change negotiation. WCTRS could
help UNFCCC and the IPCC to promote this process.
WCTRS (World Conference on Transport Research
Society) The WCTRS covers multi-modal, multi-disciplinary, and multi-sectoral fields. The
members span almost all aspects of transportation research, planning, policy and
management. The World Conferences held every 3 years mirror this breadth of
interests. 67 countries are represented in the WCTRS, with more than 1,500
members.
President: Anthony May (University of Leeds, UK)
Chair of Scientific Committee: Yoshitsugu Hayashi (Nagoya University, Japan)
WCTRS SIG11 (Special Interest Group11) - Transport and the Environment
The SIG11 aims at seeking ways to establish effective mechanisms for mitigating environmental
degradation due to transport in the international domain. The following topics are researched: a)
Comparing the emission of greenhouse gas and air pollution between countries and cities, b)
Diagnosing transport system and its resulting global and local environmental degradation and
prescribing countermeasure policies, and developing an evaluation system of their performance, c)
Providing scientific instruments for evaluation of international mechanism for environmentally
sustainable transport and the methods to collect the necessary financial resources.
Contact:
Hayashi and Kato Laboratory, International Center for Sustainable
Transport and Cities (SUSTRAC), Graduate School of
Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Japan
Address: 464-8603, C1-2, Nagoya, Japan
TEL: +81-52-789-2773
E-mail: [email protected]
Website: http://www.sustrac.env.nagoya-u.ac.jp/en/
Global Environment Research Fund (S-6-5), Ministry of Environment,
Japan
Graduate School of Environmental Studies & Global COE Program “From
Earth Science to Basic and Clinical Environmental Studies”,
Nagoya University, Japan
College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Tongji University, China
Sponsored by:
Supported by:
- Recommendations from WCTRS to COP17 -
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 2
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3
School boy waiting for a bus at 4:30 am in Suburb of Bangkok(1993)
Bangkok Post 4 Sept 1993
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
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4
Photo by Yoshitsugu Hayashi(1993)
Slower than walkers in Sukunvit Rd., Bangkok
8hr+ Commuters > 10% (1993)
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
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Bike Taxi in Bangkok
Photo by Hayashi (1993)
Photo by Yoshitsugu Hayashi(1993)
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 5
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7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 6
Econ. Growth
Rise of Income
Increment of car ownership
Increment of car use
Urbanization
Expansion of urban area
Increment of VKT
Rising costs to supply
infrastructure
Excessive
Traffic
demand
Insufficiency of Road
Traffic congestion
Obstacle to
progress of
economy
Econ.
Problems from local to global
Env. Level of Technology
Increment of energy
consumption
Insufficient Public
Transport
Motorization
Urban Sprawl
Development of
Infrastructure
Bottleneck of Traffic
Sift to low-emission mode(SHIFT)
Restraint of unnecessary demand(AVOID)
Improvement of emission factor(IMPROVE)
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
GDP per Capita US$ (1995)
Car
s p
er 1
,00
0 in
hab
itan
ts
London
Tokyo Bangkok
Seoul
Hong kong
Singapore (CA)
‘95
‘95
‘90
‘90
‘90
‘95 ‘00
‘85
‘85 ‘80
‘80
‘95
‘95 ‘00
‘70
‘60
Nagoya
Shanghai
‘95
‘02
Beijing
* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ. 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 7
Moscow
‘02 ‘99
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Road Infrastructure Supply vs.
Motorization Level vs. Peak Hour Speed
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0246810
Bangkok
Tokyo
London
Nagoya
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Bangkok
Tokyo
London
Nagoya
1972
1986
1993
1971
1988
1972
1987
1993
1972
1988
1972
1986
1993
1972
1993
1971
1988
Ro
ad le
ng
th p
er c
ar(m
/c
ar)
Car ownership(car/1,000 inhabitants) Speed (min/km)
Shanghai
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 8
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Motorization & Road Supply
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 9 7June2012
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Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 10
Urban area
Transport
Frequency
Public Transport
Improvement
Fuel
Economy
Level of
congestion
Road
Improvement
LEV Ratio
Concentration
of urban activity
× ×
Trip Generation Degree of Car dependence Technical Level
Total Trip Length
year year
Emission Factor
year
Modal Share
=
year
Emission
AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Total
7June2012
× ×
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CUTE Matrix: (Strategy) x (Instruments)
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 11 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
Strategy
Instrument
Avoid Shift Improve
Reduce need to travel
Reduce car use
Improve alternative
modes
Improve road network
Improve vehicles and fuels
Technology TOD Pedestrian
friendly urban design
Rail/bus infrastructure
IMTS
LEV Alternative fuel
Regulation
Compact city
Mix land use
Access permits
Bus/tram priorities
TDM
Emission standard Top runner program
Information Teleworki
ng
Car sharing
Awareness campaign
Bus location system
Eco-drive
IT/ITS IT / ITS
Economy
Locational Subsidy
Fuel tax Road pricing
Rail/bus fare Road pricing LEV subsidy
LEV preferential tax
7June2012
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Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 12 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
Strategy
Instrument
Avoid Shift Improve
Reduce need to travel
Reduce car use
Improve alternative
modes
Improve road network
Improve vehicles and fuels
Technology TOD Pedestrian
friendly urban design
Rail/bus infrastructure
IMTS
LEV Alternative fuel
Regulation
Compact city
Mix land use
Access permits
Bus/tram priorities
TDM
Emission standard Top runner program
Information Teleworki
ng
Car sharing
Awareness campaign
Bus location system
Eco-drive
IT/ITS IT / ITS
Economy
Locational Subsidy
Fuel tax Road pricing
Rail/bus fare Road pricing LEV subsidy
LEV preferential tax
Tokyo, London, Singapore
Urban Compaction
Transit Oriented
Development (TOD)
Railway development
7June2012
CUTE Matrix: Avoid
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London
Tokyo Nagoya
Bangkok
0 50 km 1910
1965
1985
Change in Built-up Areas Changes in Built-up Areas
AVOID AVOID
* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ. 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 13
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Tokyo
max. 1 5 , 4 0 0
London
max. 1 1 , 5 0 0
Nagoya
max. 1 7 , 1 0 0
Bangkok
max. 4 2 , 2 0 0 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 7June2012 14
AVOID
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Transit Oriented Development
7June2012 15
source: left: http://11.pro.tok2.com/~mu3rail/link156.html http://w3land.mlit.go.jp/WebGIS/index.html right: Google maps
2012 1970
1. Purchased undeveloped land
2. Improved the infrastructure and constructed new railway
• Supermarket in station, department store in city terminal, leisure site in terminal
3. Sold the land again
• Restore the development benefits TOD without public investment
New town construction by Tokyu Railway Company Around Tana Station, Yokohama city
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
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Strategy
Instrument
Avoid Shift Improve
Reduce need to travel
Reduce car use
Improve alternative
modes
Improve road network
Improve vehicles and fuels
Technology TOD Pedestrian
friendly urban design
Rail/bus infrastructure
IMTS
LEV Alternative fuel
Regulation
Compact city
Mix land use
Access permits
Bus/tram priorities
TDM
Emission standard Top runner program
Information Teleworki
ng
Car sharing
Awareness campaign
Bus location system
Eco-drive
IT/ITS IT / ITS
Economy
Locational Subsidy
Fuel tax Road pricing
Rail/bus fare Road pricing LEV subsidy
LEV preferential tax
Rail Improvement
Bangkok, Tokyo, Seoul, Shanghai, London
Mass Transit System for Urban/Sububan Lines
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 7June2012 16
CUTE Matrix: Shift
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Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 17
Tokyo Seoul Shanghai Singapore London
Area
(km2)
615
(15,000)
606
(1,900)
600
(2,900) 700
319
(18,000)
Population
(million) 8.8
(35.2)
9.9
(19.9)
10.0
(18.4) 4.5
3.0
(20.0)
Urban
railway
(km)
292 338 420 138 652
Avg car
speed
(km/h)
26 17 20 32 26
(): 2010 data of urban area in the Metropolitan Region (source: demographia)
7June2012
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18
car11%
bus5%rail
48%
walk22%
cycle14%
Tokyocar26%
bus33%
rail36%
walk4%
cycle1%
Seoul
car20%
bus29%
rail4%
walk27%
cycle20%
Shanghai
(2008) (2004)
(2009) (2007)
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
car25%
bus19%rail
17%
walk36%
cycle3%
London
(23wards)
(Inner London)
(city)
(city)
7June2012
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Inner TOKYO 23Wards O
D
Outer
TOKYO
Inner
TOKYO
23
Wards
Outer TOKYO
Total : 3. 07 million trip/day Total : 0.35 illion trip/day
Total : 3.06 million trip/day Total : 7.2 million trip/day
Car Rail Bus/Tram Cycle Walk
8%3%
65%
10%14%
17%1%
78%
1% 3%
4%1%
94%
0%1%
46%
3%
29%
9%13%
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Tokyo
5km
10km
15km
5km
10km
15km
© Y. Hayashi & S.Lee
Urban Railway Network
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 20
Tokyo Seoul Total Line Length 2,313 476 km City 292 338 km Hinterland 2,021 138 km
7June2012
Seoul
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5km
10km
15km
Shanghai
Urban Railway Network
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
London
5km
10km
15km
Tokyo Seoul Shanghai London
Total Line Length (km) 2,313 476 729 1,401
City (km) 292 338 420 652
Hinterland (km) 2,021 138 309 749
7June2012 21
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Photo by Hayashi(2002)
SHIFT
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
After SHIFT
7June2012 22
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Mass-transit Network of Future
Bangkok
2010 84.8km
planning:
2016 236km
2019 391km
2029 509km (12lines)
Master Plan Study to adjust rail mass
transit system in Bangkok and its
vicinity(2010)
SHIFT
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
SHIFT
7June2012 23
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CO2 Emission Reduction from Passenger Car by Railway Development
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 24
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1000 10000 100000 1000000
Pas
sen
ger-
car-
ori
en
ted
CO
2e
mis
sio
n c
han
ge r
ate
GRP per capita [US$ in 2003]
Shanghai
Beijing
Delhi
2050
2010
2050
2050
201020102010 Bangkok
2050
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
100 1000 10000 100000 1000000
Pas
sen
ger
cars
per
100
0 in
hav
itan
ts
GRP per capita [US$ in 2003]
Nagoya
Tokyo
Shanghai
Beijing
Delhi
Bangkok
1993
2050
20502050
2050
19651965
2005
2005
1993
1999
Without Railway
Development during mature stage
(2030~2050)
Developed during early stage
(2010~2030)
SHIFT SHIFT
If railway might be developed
during early stage, 36% of
CO2 can be reduced. If
including technological
innovation, around 80-86% of
CO2 can be reduce.
(2010年排出量=1)
Pas
sen
ger
Car
Ow
ner
ship(
Car
/10
00
per
son)
GRP par capita (US dollars in 2003)
GRP par capita (US dollars in 2003) Ch
ange
of
CO
2 E
mis
sio
n f
orm
PC (c
om
par
ing
20
10)
By 2050, railway will be developed as same level in Tokyo in 2005.
* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ.
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25 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
SHIFT
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Strategy
Instrument
Avoid Shift Improve
Reduce need to travel
Reduce car use
Improve alternative
modes
Improve road network
Improve vehicles and fuels
Technology TOD Pedestrian
friendly urban design
Rail/bus infrastructure
IMTS
LEV Alternative fuel
Regulation
Compact city
Mix land use
Access permits
Bus/tram priorities
TDM
Emission standard Top runner program
Information Teleworki
ng
Car sharing
Awareness campaign
Bus location system
Eco-drive
IT/ITS IT / ITS
Economy
Locational Subsidy
Fuel tax Road pricing
Rail/bus fare Road pricing LEV subsidy
LEV preferential tax
Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
MRT LRT
development Singapore &
Seoul Hierarchically
Integrated Transport
Bus priority (BRT)
IT/ITS operation
system
PT fare system
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 26
CUTE Matrix: Shft
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Recent Expansion Plan for the City Centre and
Railway Network in Singapore
(Sun, G., LTA)
Marina Bay development (2008)
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 27
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Bukit Panjang LRT
• 8 km, 14 stations
• Opened in 1999
(Sun, G., LTA)
Sengkang LRT
• 11km, 14 stations
• Integrated with Sengkang MRT
• Fully-automated system
• Opened in 2003
Punggol LRT
• 10km, 15 stations
• Integrated with Punggol MRT
• Fully-automated system
• Opened in 2005
LRT Integrated with MRT in Singapore
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 28
SHIFT
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Status of Existing Bus Lanes (2005)
• Exclusive median bus lanes: 7 lines/ 84km
• Curbside bus lanes: 293.6km
■ Expansion Plan (13 lines / 192 km)
Before After
Source: GyengChul Kim
Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Seoul
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 29
SHIFT
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Increase - Network capacity new bus route +BRT - Bus ridership - Bus frequency (Keep Interval) Decrease - Total bus operation cost > Increase - Bus company revenue > Decrease - Subsidy of SMG Source: GyengChul Kim
Hierarchical BRT System in Seoul
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 30
SHIFT
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Source: GyengChul Kim
Integrated Bus-Subway Operation in Seoul Bus interval management
Safe operation
Providing dynamic
information to public
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 31
SHIFT
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Electric Fare System (Smart card)
32
•Distance based fare (no change for transfers)
• Data collection for traffic management
• Non-transit applications (e.g. retail purchases, mileages)
Seoul (2004-) Singapore (2002-)
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
SHIFT
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Strategy
Instrument
Avoid Shift Improve
Reduce need to travel
Reduce car use
Improve alternative
modes
Improve road network
Improve vehicles and fuels
Technology TOD Pedestrian
friendly urban design
Rail/bus infrastructure
IMTS
LEV Alternative fuel
Regulation
Compact city
Mix land use
Access permits
Bus/tram priorities
TDM
Emission standard Top runner program
Information Teleworki
ng
Car sharing
Awareness campaign
Bus location system
Eco-drive
IT/ITS IT / ITS
Economy
Locational Subsidy
Fuel tax Road pricing
Rail/bus fare Road pricing LEV subsidy
LEV preferential tax
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 33
Road pricing
IT/ITS operation
system
Car ownership &
parking control
Emission Standard
Singapore & London Car Traffic Control
7June2012
CUTE Matrix: Shift + Improve
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Singapore
Vehicle Quota System
(VQS)
• Introduced in 1990
• Certificate of Entitlement
(COE)
– valid for 10 years
– Bid the COE
Shanghai
License Plate Auction System
• Introduced in 1997
• Bid license plates of vehicles
• The price exceeds 60,000yuan ($9,540) in 2012
(Sun, G., LTA)
Car Ownership Control
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 34
SHIFT
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Off-Street Parking Control in London •Maximum car parking space by land use
Location Marginal floor area (m2) to add one parking space
Central London (CAZ) 1,000 – 1,500
Inner London 600 – 1,000
Outer London 100 – 600
Employment car parking standard
Residential car parking standard
Predominant housing type
Car parking provision
4+ bed units 2 – 1.5 spaces
3 bed units 1.5 – 1 space
1 – 2 bed units 1 to less than 1
•Maximum car parking space by Public Transport Accessibility Levels (PTAL)
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 35
SHIFT
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On-Street Parking Control in Tokyo
• In principle, parking is prohibited on the road
• parking meters are installed in some of the road
• Management by the police
Tokyo St.
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
4 wheel
2wheel
Number of cars parked in the streets in Tokyo [cars]
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 36
SHIFT
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Area Licensing Scheme (ALS)
• Implemented in 1975
• Reduced traffic entering the
Restricted Zone (RZ)
Electronic Road Pricing (ERP)
• Implemented in 1998
• Replaced manual ALS
(Sun, G., LTA)
Road Pricing in Singapore
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 37
SHIFT
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65 kph 45 kph
Increase
ERP rate Decrease
ERP rate
Expressways
30 kph 20 kph
Increase
ERP rate
Decrease
ERP rate
Arterial Roads
• ERP is a congestion management tool
• Pay-as-you-use principle
• Review speed range at 3-month interval, adjust ERP rates
Courtesy of Mohinder Singh, LTA
traffic.smart
Application of ITS
Electronic Road Pricing (ERP)
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 38
SHIFT
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Road Pricing in London
39
Congestion Charge
• Implemented in 2003
• The Zone of City Centre
• Exemption introduced in 2011
for LEVs (EURO5, EV/PHV etc)
Low Emission Zone
• Implemented in 2008
• Freight vehicles and coaches
• The whole city (GLA)
• EURO3 standard
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
SHIFT
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Strategy
Instrument
Avoid Shift Improve
Reduce need to travel
Reduce car use
Improve alternative
modes
Improve road network
Improve vehicles and fuels
Technology TOD Pedestrian
friendly urban design
Rail/bus infrastructure
IMTS
LEV Alternative fuel
Regulation
Compact city
Mix land use
Access permits
Bus/tram priorities
TDM
Emission standard Top runner program
Information Teleworki
ng
Car sharing
Awareness campaign
Bus location system
Eco-drive
IT/ITS IT / ITS
Economy
Locational Subsidy
Fuel tax Road pricing
Rail/bus fare Road pricing LEV subsidy
LEV preferential tax
Emission Standard
Japan Top Runner Program
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 40 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 7June2012
CUTE Matrix: Improve
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0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
1996 2001 2006 2011
g-P
M /
kW
h
PM
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
1996 2001 2006 2011
g-N
ox
/ kW
h Japan
EU
US
China
Thailand
NOx
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
1995 2000 2005 2010
An
nu
al a
vera
ge
[m
g /
m3]
PM
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
1995 2000 2005 2010
An
nu
al a
vera
ge
[pp
m]
NO2 NO
Euro2
Euro3
Euro4
Euro5
Euro2
Euro3
Euro4,5
Atmospheric Concentrations of NOx and PM around roads in Japan
Source: Ministry of Environment ,Japan, www.env.go.jp/air/osen/index.html 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 41
IMPROVE
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Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 42
Top Runner Program with vehicles List of the Specified 21 Appliances
Passenger VehiclesFreight VehiclesAir ConditionersElectric RefrigeratorsElectric FreezersElectric Rice CookersMicrowave OvensFluorescent LightsElectric Toilet SeatsTV Sets (CRT, LCD, Plasma)Video Cassette RecordersDVD RecordersComputersMagnetic Disk UnitsCopying MachinesSpace HeatersGas Cooking AppliancesGas Water HeatersOil Water HeatersVending MachinesTransformers
at the time of standards establishment
Target year
19km/L
18km/L
17km/L
15km/L 15km/L
14km/L
13km/L
12km/L
16
Fuel Efficiency (km/L)
target value
Weighted average value for each product category
7June2012
IMPROVE
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Strategy
Instrument
Avoid Shift Improve
Reduce need to travel
Reduce car use
Improve alternative
modes
Improve road network
Improve vehicles and fuels
Technology TOD Pedestrian
friendly urban design
Rail/bus infrastructure
IMTS
LEV Alternative fuel
Regulation
Compact city
Mix land use
Access permits
Bus/tram priorities
TDM
Emission standard Top runner program
Information Teleworki
ng
Car sharing
Awareness campaign
Bus location system
Eco-drive
IT/ITS IT / ITS
Economy
Locational Subsidy
Fuel tax Road pricing
Rail/bus fare Road pricing LEV subsidy
LEV preferential tax
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 43 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
LEV subsidy LEV preferential
tax
Japan Greening Taxation
CUTE Matrix: Improve
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Effects of Tax and Subsidy Policies
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 44 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University
Fuel economy [km/l]
Observed Estimation
Sales base
Real running
EV
HV
NGV
LPG
Methanol
Ownership base
Greening taxation
Greening taxation
Methanol-fueled vehicle LPG-fueled vehicle Natural gas vehicle Hybrid vehicle Electrical vehicle
Year
No. of vehicles
Top Runner Program
Top Runner Program
IMPROVE
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Increase in Low Emission Cars
7June2012 45
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
EV
HV
[vehicle]
Year
HV : 1,418,400
(2.54 % of total
passenger cars)
EV : 16,800
(0.03 % of total
passenger cars)
Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
IMPROVE
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Scenario for Improvement of Power Source and Fuel in the Case of Bangkok
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 46
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CO
2Em
issi
on
Fac
tor[
g-C
O2
/km
]
Year
CO2 Emission Factor for Passenger Vehicle * Result of the study of Nagoya Univ.
FCV
EV
HV
GV
IMPROVE IMPROVE
• Scenario for CO2 Emission Factor Improvement was set based on estimation in
Japan
• Production of electricity will be estimated based on scenario “increased use of
renewable energy”
Lower level
Upper level
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Scenario for Low-emission Vehicle Diffusion
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 47
IMPROVE IMPROVE
0
100
200
300
400
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Nu
mb
er
of re
gis
tere
d V
eh
icle
[‘0
00]
Year
二輪GV
二輪EV
普通GV
HV
普通EV
Gasoline Motorcycle Electric Motorcycle Gasoline Passenger Car Hybrid Passenger Car Electric Passenger Car
Based on Estimation in Japan, passenger car using gasoline will be 0% with the scenario that motorcycle will sift to passenger car,
* Result of the study of Nagoya Univ.
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Identifying A Necessary Policy Package
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
CO
2e
mis
sio
ns
fro
m p
asse
nge
r ca
rs in
Ban
gko
k (M
t/ye
ar) AVOID
SHIFTIMPROVE
Mitigation from
2050
Do Nothing
CO2 mitigation Scenario
SHIFT
IMP
RO
VE
AV
OID
70%
Extensive Measures Needed for Low-Carbon Transport
IMPROVE
48 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
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49
Energy Source
Mo
dal
Sh
are
MC
PC Gasoline
Rail Electricity
Public
Bus Diesel CNG
Comprehensive Strategy to Achieve CO2 Emission Reduction Target
Electricity
Diesel
CNG Biomass
Gasoline
Electricity
Diesel CNG
Gasoline
-50%
-30%
From the view point of energy consumption
7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
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Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University 50
Urban area
Transport
Frequency
Public Transport
Improvement
Fuel
Economy
Level of
congestion
Road
Improvement
LEV Ratio
Concentration
of urban activity
× ×
Trip Generation Degree of Car dependence Technical Level
Total Trip Length
year year
Emission Factor
year
Modal Share
=
year
Emission
AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Total
7June2012
× ×
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Conclusion
• CUTE Matrix: (Strategy) x (Instruments) for
• Decomposition for understand Urban Transport Emission: , and
• Back-casting approach for seeking effective combinations
• Scenario and Roadmap
51 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University
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Conclusion
• To realize the low-carbon society, leapfrog development is necessary in Asian developing cities.
• Thus, the future vision of low-carbon society which will achieve huge reduction of CO2 emission should be established firstly.
• Impacts of each avoid, sift and improve measures should be clarified.
• Then, thier effective combinations should be examined through backcasting approach.
• Finally the available scenario should be set up for the roadmap of each city.
52 7June2012 Hayashi Laboratory, Nagoya University