-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
1/54
© Swedbank
Swedbank Economic Outlook – UpdateBudding spring with spells of night frostMacro Research – April 2015
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
2/54
© Swedbank
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
2. Global Outlook: The global recovery is propped up by monetary policy
3. US: A rebound that faded
4. EMU: Recovery gaining momentum
5. Emerging markets: Credit Ratings At Risk
6. Sweden: Domestic demand remains the main engine for growth
7. Nordic area: A pick up since last winter
8. The Baltics
9. Appendix: Key economic indicators
2
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
3/54
© Swedbank
• Mature economies will provide stability in
the global recovery, propped up bymonetary policy
• Emerging economies will face increased
volatility, but some are better preparedthan others
• Sweden will have adapt to ECB
expansion, Norway to oil price swings andthe Baltic countries to the squeezebetween Russia and the euro area
Executive Summary
3
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
4/54
© Swedbank
3,4 3,5
3,6 3,7
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
2013 2014 2015 2016
Contribution to global growth (ppt)India
China
Japan
EMU countries
USA
Others
Global GDP (PPP)
Sources: Ecowin and Swedbank's forecasts.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
April January
Risks to the forecast (prob. in %)
Main
Worse Better
Source: Swedbank
Main
Worse Better
• Pick up in mature economies despite someset backs. We expect USA and Germany tolead the way.
• Emerging economies in between energyprices and Fed; but China and to an
increasing extent India will provide the bulkof global growth
• Risks are evenly balanced;
– Downside risks are mainly coming from an
uncontrollable unravelling of Chineseimbalances, from a sustained slowdown of theUS economy and Grexit
– Upside risks reside primarily in a stronger-than-expected pick up in the euro area
combined with a rebound of the US economy
Global outlook: The global recovery is propped up by
monetary policy
4
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
5/54
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
6/54
© Swedbank
Global Outlook: Tables
Interest and exchange rate assumptions, %
Outcome Forecast
2015 2015 2015 2016 2016
15-Apr 30 Jun 31 Dec 30 Jun 31 Dec
Policy rates
Federal Reserve, USA 0,25 0,25 0,50 1,00 1,50
European Central Bank 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05
Bank of England 0,50 0,50 0,50 0,75 1,00
Bank of Japan 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,10 0,10
Government bond rates
Germany 2y -0,3 -0,3 -0,3 0,1 0,5
Germany 10y 0,1 0,2 0,4 0,8 1,3
US 2y 0,5 0,6 1,1 1,7 2,2
US 10y 1,9 1,9 2,3 2,7 3,1Exchange rate s
EUR/USD 1,07 1,03 1,00 0,95 0,98
USD/CNY 6,2 6,1 6,1 6,0 5,9
USD/JPY 119 121 125 127 129
EUR/GBP 0,72 1 0,71 0,71 0,68
USD/RUB 50 57 65 65 65
Sources: Reuters Ecowin and Swedbank.
Swedbank’s global GDP forecast
1/
(annual percentage change)
USA 2,2 2,4 (2,4) 2,9 (3,2) 2,8 (2,8)
EMU countries -0,4 0,9 (0,8) 1,4 (1,1) 1,9 (1,9)
Germany 0,2 1,6 (1,5) 2,0 (1,5) 2,2 (2,2)
France 0,4 0,4 (0,3) 0,9 (0,6) 1,8 (1,7)
Italy -1,7 -0,4 (-0,4) 0,1 (0,0) 1,2 (1,2)
Spain -1,2 1,4 (1,3) 2,5 (2,0) 2,5 (2,3)
Finland -1,3 -0,1 (-0,3) 0,1 (-0,0) 0,9 (0,8)
UK 1,7 2,8 (2,6) 2,4 (2,5) 2,4 (2,2)
Denmark -0,5 1,1 (0,9) 2,0 (1,8) 2,3 (2,3)
Norw ay 2,3 2,3 (2,6) 1,2 (1,3) 1,4 (1,7)
Japan 1,6 -0,1 (0,2) 0,8 (1,0) 1,1 (1,1)
China 7,9 7,6 (7,5) 6,8 (7,1) 6,6 (6,8)
India 6,3 6,9 (5,2) 7,3 (6,6) 7,7 (7,0)
Brazil 2,7 0,2 (0,2) -1,2 (0,7) -0,8 (1,8)
Russia 1,3 0,7 (0,5) -5,5 (-6,0) -2,0 (-2,5)
Global GDP in PPP 2/ 3,4 3,5 (3,4) 3,6 (3,7) 3,7 (3,8)
1/ January 2015 forecasts in parenthesis.
2/ World Bank weights (rev ised 2014). Sources: IMF and Swedbank.
2015f2013 2014 2016f
Interest and exchange rate assumptions
Outcome Forecast
2015 2015 2015 2016 2016
17-apr 30 Jun 31 Dec 30 Jun 31 Dec
Interest rates (%)
Sw edish repo rate -0,25 -0,50 -0,50 -0,50 0,00
10-yr. gvt bond 0,24 0,20 0,60 1,10 1,70
Exchange rate s
EUR/SEK 9,3 9,5 9,3 9,0 8,9
USD/SEK 8,6 9,2 9,2 9,5 9,1
KIX (SEK) 1/ 114,3 116,5 114,9 113,0 113,3
1/ To tal co mpetit iveness weights. Trade-weighted exchange rate index fo r SEK.
Sources: Reuters Eco win and Swedbank
6
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
7/54
© Swedbank
Global view
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
8/54
© Swedbank
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
Q1-10 Q3-10 Q1-11 Q3-11 Q1-12 Q3-12 Q1-13 Q3-13 Q1-14 Q3-14
US: Real GDP growth
USA (qoq) US yoy ann.
Source: Reuters EcoWin
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015
US: Nonfarm payrolls
Monthly change 3-month average 12-month average
Source: Reuters EcoWin
• Growth declined in the fourth quarter of2014, due to temporary factors, andindicators suggest a continued weak
development in early 2015.
• Job creation dropped significantly in the first3 months of the year
US: A rebound that faded
8
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
9/54
© Swedbank
• Households are saving, debt levels aredown
• Moderate investments in housing
• Business investments are lagging
• Corporate profits and household wealth arerising
• Mid-way in the business cycle according todemand components
US: Balance sheets positioned for a pick up
300
350
400
450
500
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000 2002 2004 2005 2008 2010 2012 2014
US: Corporate profit & H.H net worth(% of GDP)
Corporate Profits Household Net Worth (RHS)
Source: IIF
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2011
US: Demand, deviation from trend
Sources: Macrobond and Swedbank.
Households
Public sector
Business invest. Netexports
9
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
10/54
© Swedbank
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
1
1,5
World DM EM OPEC U.S. EuroArea
Japan China
US: Impact of oil price decline
GDP CPI
Source: IIF
• Low oil price in particular beneficial to theUS, despite short term negative impact onoil energy related sectors
• Headline inflation will be suppressed
• Slack in labour market will hold back wagedevelopments for yet another period of time
Oil price decline boosts growth and reduces inflation
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.02.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US: Core inflation and wages (%)
CPI core PCE core Average hourly earnings
Source: Reuters Ecowin
10
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
11/54
© Swedbank
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
2014 2015 2016 2017 Long term
FOMC median end-year forecast of targetrate
Mar 2015
Dec 2014
Sep 2014
Jun 2014
• Despite revising down growth to 2.9% (from3.2%) from 2015 we remain cautiouslyoptimistic on US prospects. Growth for 2016
is forecast at 2.8%.
• We stick to our view that Federal Reservewill hike in September this year, andthereafter twice per semester. FOMC recentforecast revision moves them closer to ourcall.
US: Solid expansion and tempered policy tightening
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Q 1 -
1 2
Q 2 -
1 2
Q 3 -
1 2
Q 4 -
1 2
Q 1 -
1 3
Q 2 -
1 3
Q 3 -
1 3
Q 4 -
1 3
Q 1 -
1 4
Q 2 -
1 4
Q 3 -
1 4
Q 4 -
1 4
Q 1 -
1 5
Q 2 -
1 5
Q 3 -
1 5
Q 4 -
1 5
Q 1 -
1 6
Q 2 -
1 6
Q 3 -
1 6
Q 4 -
1 6
US: Real GDP growth
USA (qoq)
US yoy (rhs)
11
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
12/54
© Swedbank
-5
-4
-3
-2
-10
1
2
3
4
5
6
37,5
40
42,5
45
47,550
52,5
55
57,5
60
62,5
65
2007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
EMU: PMI vs GDP
Composite PMI GDP q/q (annual rate, %) (RHS)
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Swedbank
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Jan-07 Dec-07 Nov-08 Oct-09 Sep-10 Aug-11 Jul-12 Jun-13 May-14
EMU: Composite PMI
Spain France Italy Germany
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Swedbank
• Barometers have improved fast – PMIs have improved rapidly and now suggest
1.5% GDP growth on average
– Other business barometers also rising
• Actual data have also improved – German GDP growth picked up in Q4
– Retail sales set for strong growth in Q1, consumerconfidence is strong
– Employment is growing and unemployment falling
almost everywhere – Private credit is rising and the decrease in credit to
NF corp is decelerating firmly
• Monetary stimulus will continue – Exceptionally low interest rates
– Weak EUR
– Quantitative measures should give further boost tocredit growth
• We revise up expected growth to 1.4-1.9%2015/2016 – Mostly on Germany and Spain, but most countries
in EMU stand to gain
EMU: Recovery gaining momentum
12
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
13/54
© Swedbank
-2,0
-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
2014Q1
2014Q2
2014Q3
2014Q4
UK: Contribution to growth (y/y, p.p.) Net Trade
Gross capital formation
General governmentfinal consumptionexpenditure
NPISH finalconsumptionexpenditureH.H final consumptionexpenditure
GDP, y/y (%)
Sources: ONS and Reuters EcoWin
Note: Components may not sum due to rounding & inventories not included
• GDP growth for 2014 was revised up, but
dismal start to 2015 – Retail sales has developed strongly and PMIs signal
growth going forward – In 2015 growth is mainly domestically driven but global
growth gives support in 2016
– In the medium to long term productivity has to increase
• Election on May 7 is expected to be a cliff-
hanger and the likelihood for a hungparliament is high – Fiscal consolidation expected no matter turn out
– Temporary depreciation of the pound likely aroundelection time
• First rate hike to 0.75% postponed to 1Q
2016 – Worrisome development of the inflation
– Pay growth remains weak
– Over the year, a stronger pound dampens import prices
UK: Politics in focus
13
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
14/54
© Swedbank
• Abenomics, after 2 years: – ‘A’ grade for his monetary stimulus,
– a ‘B’ for his fiscal policy and
– an ‘E’ for the limited progress on structural reform.
• Growth is still expected to accelerate in2015. – A negative impact from the consumption tax rate hike is
waning.
– A recent fall in oil prices will boost consumption.
– Exports are getting stronger, benefitting from strongerdemand in the US but also from weaker yen.
• As inflation is slowing, additional monetarystimulus is expected before the end of 2015.
Japan: Recovery postponed, again
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Japan: Economic sentiment
Manufacturing PMI, SA
Services PMI
Composite PMI, SA
Source: Markit Economics
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Japan: Prices, YoY change
CPI less fresh food(LHS)
REER, JPY (RHS)
Monetary base, SA,JPY (RHS)
Japan Nikkei 225
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Swedbank
14
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
15/54
© Swedbank
Expansionary ECB and tighter Fed
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ln % of GDP
Central bank balances
Japan USA UK EMUSource: Reuters EcoWin
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
Central bank policy rates (%)
Fed
BoE
Norges bank
Riksbank
ECB
Source: Swedbank's forecasts
15
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
16/54
© Swedbank
• Major challenges for dollar borrowers!
• A number of EM countries will likely facehigh problems servicing their debt with large
refinancing risks in the next couple of years.• We expect a high degree of differentiation
between EM countries according toimplementation of macroeconomic reforms.
• China: The economy is weak on a broad
basis. High need for economic stimulus.• India: Growth has disappointed. Challenge
is now to get important reforms approved inthe upper house.
• Brazil: Weak demand from China, a strong
dollar, weak government finances, anextensive corruption scandal, high inflationand the biggest water shortage in moderntimes are all impacting growth.
• Russia: Consumers start to feel the bite withreal wages and retail volumes plummeting
Emerging markets: Credit Ratings At Risk
16
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
17/54
© Swedbank
• Brazil is in recession
• The Brazilian economy hurt by:
– Slower growth in China
– A stronger dollar
– Weak government finances
– Corruption scandals
– High inflation
• Tight policy to keep sovereign rating• High risk of political turbulence
• A stronger dollar is a risk as external debt inUSD is high
• A recovery will take time, which is a risk for a
setback in fiscal policy
Brazil: Unusually numerous and difficult challenges
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
23
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Brazil: Real GDP (y/y, %)
Source: Reuters EcoWin
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 May-12 Dec-12 Jul-13 Feb-14 Sep-14 Apr-15
Brazil: Policy rate (%)
Source: Reuters EcoWin
17
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
18/54
© Swedbank
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Russia: Growth of retail, wages and prices (%, y/y)
Real gross wage
Retail tradeturnover
Consumer prices
Source: Reuters Ecowin
• Consumers start to feel the bite with real
wages and retail volumes plummeting – Russia escaped recession last year owing to a massive
drop in imports, but in the second half of 2014investments, exports, and government spending were
already falling.
‒ We inch up GDP forecast to -5.5% in 2015 and -2% in2016 (from -6% and -2.5%) due to less weak roubleand somewhat higher oil price. Volatility in GDP
aggregates will be massive, e.g., consumption down bymore than 10%, investment by about 20%.
‒ High inflation, financial squeeze, and bank bailouts;continued capital outflows.
‒ The rouble to depreciate further amid some volatility.Reserves have decreased - still at good levels toservice forex debt, but insufficient for investments.
• Major risks are political, not economic ‒ Probabilities of baseline and negative scenarios very
closely matched. Baseline scenario hinges uponcalming of the RUS/UKR conflict during 2015, followed
by gradually eased sanctions in late 2016. ‒ Negative scenario: crisis escalation, broader sanctions,
and deeper recession.
Russia: Consumers start to feel the bite
250
325
400
475
550
30
50
70
90
110
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15
Russia: FX, oil price & central bank reserves
Brent, USD (1. jan2014 = 100)
USD/RUB, close(1.jan 2014 = 100)
Central bankinternationalreserves, USD bn (rs)
Source: Reuters Ecowin
18
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
19/54
© Swedbank
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 May-12 Dec-12 Jul-13 Feb-14 Sep-14
India: PMI Manufacturing
Source: Reuters EcoWin
-5,5
-5
-4,5
-4
-3,5
-3
-2,5-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
India: Current Account (% of GDP)
Source: Reuters EcoWin
• India is one of the big winners of the lower
oil price
• Strong improvement in the current account,
lower inflation and fx stability
• Economic policy is tight in order to buildconfidence
• However, confidence comes with a cost -
growth has disappointed• Credit growth is slow and rate cuts have not
been passed to borrowers
• We expect a gradual improvement in growthas reforms are introduced
• The government needs support in the upperhouse to push through important reforms
India: Good policy pays off in higher confidence
19
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
20/54
© Swedbank
100
200
300
400
500
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 May-12 Dec-12 Jul-13 Feb-14 Sep-14
Billions% y/y
China: Foreign trade (USD)
Trade Balance (total, annual rate) Exports, % y/y, 3MA Imports, % y/y, 3MA
Source: Reuters EcoWin
• Growth target at 7% for 2015
• Broad economic weakness
• House prices are falling
• Credit growth decelerates
• Tighter fiscal stance as local governmentsface borrowing restrictions
• Growth will be driven by economic stimulus,
net exports and low oil prices• Risks are (as usual) big for a disorderly
adjustment but China still has large reservesto use, if needed
• A devaluation of the Renminbi is highly
unlikely as long as exports are growing…
• …and the volume of corporate bond
maturing in 2015 is record high
China: Major challenges to rebalance the economy
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15
China: Credit growth (y/y)
Bank loans Total loansSource: Reuters EcoWin
20
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
21/54
© Swedbank
Sweden
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
22/54
© Swedbank
1,3
2,3 2,6 3,2
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,00,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
2013 2014 2015f 2016f
Sweden: Contribution to growth (%-points of GDP)
Public cons
Foreign balance
Stockbuilding
Gross fixed investment
Private cons
GDP (cal. adj.)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and Swedbank forecasts.
• We expect the household economy toremain strong and consumption to be themain engine of growth in 2015. Next year,
tax increases, higher inflation, and, to someextent, amortisation requirements will
constrain purchasing power.
• Higher investment growth, in 2015 throughrising housing investments, in 2016 through
business investments. Economic policy,however, creates uncertainty that cancompromise corporate investment plans.
• Moderately unit labour cost (ULC) and aweaker exchange rate will support Swedish
exports during the forecast period and partlyoffset the decline in market share.
Sweden: Domestic demand remains the main engine for
growth
22
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
23/54
© Swedbank
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Sweden: Households financial wealth and debt
Financial net wealth incl. NPISH Debt totalSource: Swedbank
Solid development for the household sector
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
18,0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f
Sweden: Disposable income and consumption
Disposable income (real change in %, RHS)Consumption (real change in %, RHS)Savings ratioInterest rate costs (% of disp.inc)
Source: Swedbank
• Solid increase in disposable income this year, but higher taxes and rising inflation will dampen
the growth rate in 2016• Amortization Requirements and political uncertainties contributes to a persistent high savings
ratio during the forecast period• Households have a strong balance sheet at the aggregate level
23
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
24/54
© Swedbank
Amortization requirement takes effect
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
0-25 25-50 50-70 70-85 above 85
Sweden: Amortization in LTV ranges (%), newloans, 2014
Share that amortize
Share of debt (RHS)
Share of disposable income (RHS)
Source: FSA
50
55
60
65
70
7580
85
90
95
100
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Jan-07 Apr-08 Jul-09 Oct-10 Jan-12 Apr-13 Jul-14 Oct-15
Sweden: Houshold debt & interest rate costs
Debt, bn SEK Interest rate costs, bn SEK
Source: Statistics Sweden
0
5
10
15
0
5
10
15
0-25 25-50 50-70 70-85 above 85
Sweden: Interest & debt service ratio in LTVranges, 2014, new loans
Interest ratio Debt service ratio
Source: FSA
Note: Shows interest rate payments as well as the sum ofinterest rate payments and amortization as a share ofdisposable income.
The debt service ratio refers to present amortization plans.
• Households amortizing at a higher rate, but itremains a part to fully meet the amortizationrequirement
• Both interest and debt service ratio willrise, which dampens other consumption. Due toour calculations costs will increase by 9 – 16 bnSEK, corresponding to 0.5 – 0.9 percent ofhousehold consumption.
• Monetary policy keeps interest expenses in checkuntil next year 24
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
25/54
© Swedbank
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1 2010Q1 2011Q1 2012Q1 2013Q1 2014Q1
Sweden: Consumption on class of goods
Goods Durable goods Services
Source: Statistics Sweden
Strong consumption this year but weaker in 2016
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sweden: Retail sales & household expectations
Retail Sales (y/y) Sweden´s economy over the next 12 mths (RHS)
Source: Reuters EcoWin
• Low interest rates and strong housing completions boost’s consumption this year• Amortization Requirements, higher taxes and fragile "sentiment" dampen consumption of
durable goods, mainly next year
25
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
26/54
© Swedbank
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sweden: Contribution to investment growth, %
Machinery/Inventories Building excl. housing
Investments that are intangible Housing
Source: Statistics Sweden
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sweden: Investment in different sectors, %
Total Business, excl housing Housing Public
Source: Statistics Sweden
• Continued growth in real estate investmentsbut will decelerate in 2016 due to bas effectsand supply restrictions
• Public investments speeds up driven by thegovernment measures in infrastructure andfrom municipalities
• Low interest rates, lower increases in unitlabour costs, low oil and higher export
demand raising investments in the businesssector
Broader growth in investments
26
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
27/54
© Swedbank
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sweden: Export, market growth and market shares
Market shares World market growth Export, %
Source: Statistics Sweden
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Sweden: Export volume on class of goods, % change
2014 Average 2010-2013
Source: Statistics Sweden
• Export recovery during 2014 on serveralmarkets – but still sluggish for investmentgoods
• Higher expected market growth in EMU(40% of Swedish export) in 2015/16,favourable conditions for a stronger exportof goods.
• Modest unit labour cost increases and
weaker krona
Higher export growth as export demand in EMU recovers
27
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
28/54
© Swedbank
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
7,5
8,0
8,5
9,0
9,5
10,0
4 200
4 400
4 600
4 800
5 000
5 200
5 400
Sweden: Employment, labour force & unemployment
Unemployment rate (%)
Labor force
Employment
Sources: Statistics Sweden, Swedbank and the Riksbank
Swedbank estimateRiksbank estimate
• Underlying development positive
• Labour force growth continues to surprise
• Unemployment decrease only gradually
Labour market improves but unemployment remains
stubbornly high
28
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
29/54
© Swedbank
Record population growth
• Sweden population increased by 100 000last year and is approaching 10 million
• 3/4 net immigration and ¼ net birth
• Dependency ratio has stabilized in the shortterm
7 500 000
8 000 000
8 500 000
9 000 000
9 500 000
10 000 000
-0,6%
-0,4%
-0,2%0,0%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%
0,8%
1,0%
1,2%
0-14y (%) 15-64y (%) 65+y (%)
Chg population (%) Population (RHS)
Source: Statistics Sweden
Sweden: Population growth and contribution from age groups
60%
62%
64%
66%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Total
Dom. born
Source: Statistics Sweden
73%
75%
77%
79%
For. born
Sweden: Share 15-64 years in total pop., among foreign anddomestic born
29
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
30/54
© Swedbank
• Wage growth has been moderate for several
years
• Difficult wage negotiations is expected
• Wage expectations are falling
• Moderate wage increases in the yearsahead
• Labour cots will rise next year on abolishing
youth discount• Hourly wages: 2.9% this year and 3.2 %
next year
Upcoming wage negotiations increasingly in focus
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
Sweden: Economic Forecasts, Prospera
Wage increase expectations, Year 2 Inflation expectations, Year 5
Wage increase expectations, Year 1
Source: Reuters EcoWin
0,0
1,0
2,03,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
Sweden: Wages
Total pay growth Collective bargaining agreement "Wage drift"
Source: Swedish National Mediation Office
30
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
31/54
© Swedbank
-1,00%
-0,50%
0,00%0,50%
1,00%
1,50%
2,00%
2,50%
3,00%
3,50%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sweden: Inflation development
CPI Swedbank CPIF Swedbank
Sources: Swedbank and Statistics Sweden
• Inflation has bottomed out and CPIFincrease to 1.0% in 2015 partly due to baseffects
• In 2016 CPIF increase to 2% driven byhigher energy prices and tax increases
• The government tax increases on fuels and
lower tax reduction for building/constructionwill raise the CPI by 0.35 percentage points
in 2016
• Positive contribution to CPI in 2016 whenthe interest rates gradually start to increase
Higher inflation
31
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
32/54
© Swedbank
-1,00
-0,50
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
2010-11-15 2012-11-15 2014-11-15 2016-11-15
Sweden: Repo rate path
Outcome Riksbank (Mar) Swedbank (Apr) Riba/FRA (Apr 20)
Sources: Swedbank, Riksbanken and BloombergNote: The Riksbank repo rate path is an estimation from the press release
• The Riksbank cuts the repo rate to – 0.5percent
• Additional purchases of government bonds
– SEK 50 billion – Covered bonds and bonds from local authorities are
plausible
• Loans to small and medium-sizedenterprises (possibility)
• FX-interventions (possibility)• Repo rate raised the second half of 2016 in
two steps to 0 percent (September andDecember)
The Riksbank implements additional easing in the
spring
32
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
33/54
© Swedbank
Neutral fiscal policy
33
• Neutral to marginally negative effect on GDP 2015 och 2016• SEK 8 bn 2015 och 20 bn 2016 in fully financed reforms
• Scope for more reforms in the fall; gasoline tax, defense, jobs, education
Reforms in Spring Budget Bill SEK bn 2016 Effect on GDP 2016
Jobs and competitiveness +5,5 Higher private and public consumption
School +2,6 Higher public consumption
Health care and elderly care, unemploymentbenefits
+6,5 Higher public consumption
Environment +2,0 Higher public consumption
Other (mainly to municipalities) +3,4 Higher public consumption
Social contribution fees for people
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
34/54
© Swedbank
Negative policy rate - unique possibility for fiscal
policy
34
• Expansive fiscal policy can contribute to strengthen growth with a positive multiplier whenpolicy rates have reached the zero lower bound (see e.g., Blanchard och Leigh 2013,Eichengreen and O’Rourke 2012)
• Ineffective fiscal policy?
– In countries with a government debt over 90 % (Reinhardt och Rogoff 2010, 2012)
– Multiplier effect diminshes witha government debt over 70% (Becker 2006)
• Swedish government debt 2015 40,9%
– Real interest rate 10-year government bonds about -1,7%
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
35/54
© Swedbank
Fiscal policy: There will be more
SEK 28 bn in tax increases planned and more reforms to be announced
35
Revenue increases SEK 20 bn Expenses SEK 20 bn
Jobs and comp!"!"#nss Schoo$
%a$!h car and $dr$y car& 'nmp$oymn! bn"!s n#"ronmn!
*!hr (ma"n$y m'n"c"pa$"!"s) Soc"a$ con!r"b'!"on s
*!hr
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
36/54
© Swedbank
Relativ inflation is key to FX outlook
• Usually, FX is not a tool/target for centralbanks that are inflation targeting
• However, FX is crucial now due to: – Global disinflation processes in the light of the debt
crisis and doubled capacity in the world economy
since 1990 – Global policy rates are at zero and monetary
policies have to act with QE and indirectly againstFX
• Currencies are a zero sum game, in thepast Fed and BoE lowered their
currencies• Inflation outlook in the short term is driven
by base effects, energy and currencies: – Slowly upwards: Sweden and the Eurozone
– Unchanged: US and Norge
– Down: UK
• Note that central banks view the falling oilprice differently. – Fed , ECB and Norges bank disregard it
– Riksbanken and ECB assume that it affectsinflation expectations and thereby emphasis it
36
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
37/54
© Swedbank
EURUSD close to parity this year before Fed lifts-off.
• Labour costs in the US start increasing as the labour market continues to improve
• Strong USD/low oil prices support limited rate hiked by Fed
• Expectations on Fed is currently ”only” 25 bp hike in December and Fed funds around 1.00 % Dec
16.
37
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
38/54
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
39/54
© Swedbank
• Norway: Slowdown set to continue
• Denmark: A successful defence of thecurrency peg
• Finland: Less clouds, but still rainy
Nordic area: A pick up since last winter
39
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
40/54
© Swedbank
• Outlook has weakened further... – Regional network projects growth below 1%
– Oil prices remain low, investments falling
– Wage growth slows down to below 3% this year
• ...but unemployment remains low – Registered (NAV) unemployment has risen more slowly
than expected
– Labour force survey (AKU) has reported an upswing,but remains volatile
• Norges Bank set to cut policy rate – Kept policy rate unchanged at 1.25% in March for fear
of fuelling strong house price growth
– Rate path projection implies cut to 1% in Q2, anddownside bias thereafter
– We see clear downside risks and expect rate
eventually bottom at 0.5% next year
• We reduce our growth projections to
1.2-1.4% in 2015/2016, with risks ondownside
• We expect NOK to remain weak
Norway: Slowdown set to continue
-4,0
-2,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Norway: GDP outcome and forecast (%)
Norges Bank's forecast GDP MainlandNetwork survey Network forecast
Sources: Reuters EcoWin, Swedbank and Norges Bank.
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Norway: Unemployment in %
Norges Bank's forecast Unemployment (survey)
Unemployment (registred)
Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Swedbank.
40
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
41/54
© Swedbank
• Net exports main contributor to growth in2015 – Although, substantial negative impact of the Russian
economic crisis, average foreign demand has improvedlately
• Supply side of the economy is primarilysupported by growth in the service sector – Industrial sector output is still in the negative territory
• Finland’s economic growth potential hasdecreased – Productivity growth has been very sluggish, and
working-age population and investments have
decreased several years in a row.
• Investments will have positive growthnumbers only in 2016
• Private consumption grows marginally in2015, primarily supported by low energyprices – Household savings have been negative for 2 years in a
row, which inhibits more robust pick-up in consumption
• Public sector has to implement even morestrict austerity policies as the budget deficitfell below the 3% limit last year
Finland: Less clouds, but still rainy
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Industrial output Services' turnover
Sources: Statistics Finland and Swedbank
Finland: Industrial output and services' sector turnover, YoY %
32.6
-1.5-1.3
-0.1
0.1 0.9
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
Finland: GDP and its transactions, YoY %
GDP Exports Private consumption Investments
Sources: Statistics Finland and Swedbank
41
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
42/54
© Swedbank
• Aggressive reductions of policy rates, and
large intervention in the currency marketshave kept the krone well within bounds
Denmark: A successful defence of the currency peg
-1,00
-0,80
-0,60-0,40
-0,20
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
2012 2013 2014 2015
Denmark: Monetary policy rates (%)
Certificates of deposit rate Discount rateCurrent-account rate Lending rate
Source: Danmarks Nationalbank
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2012 2013 2014 2015
Denmark: Foreign-exchange reserve (DKK billion)
Source: Danmarks Nationalbank
7,2 kr
7,3 kr
7,4 kr
7,5 kr
7,6 kr
7,7 kr
Market rate Central rate Fluctuation limits (+/-2.25 per cent)
Denmark: Kroner per euro
Source: Danmarks Nationalbank
42
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
43/54
© Swedbank
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Denmark: Competitiveness and exports
REER (ULC) Export (m Dkk, RHS)
Sources:BIS and Statistics Denmark.
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Mar-05 Jun-06 Sep-07 Dec-08 Mar-10 Jun-11 Sep-12 Dec-13
Denmark: Labour market developments (%)
Employment growth Unemployment rate Employment rate (RHS)
Source: Statistics Denmark
• Exports improves on the back of improved
competitiveness
• Employment and employment rate recover,
while unemployment rate declines fromelevated levels
• We expect growth to continue to increase ata moderate rate
Denmark: Competitiveness and labour market improve
43
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
44/54
© Swedbank
• Estonia: More opportunities for growth
• Latvia: Consumers driving growth
• Lithuania: Wear your long johns until the
summer
The Baltics
44
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
45/54
© Swedbank
• GDP real growth in 2015 and 2016 revisedmarginally upwards
• Manufacturing sector turnover and export growthis expected to decelerate this year – Negative effect from the economic crisis in Russia, but
– Estonian enterprises have increased their exports to several
other markets – Foreign demand stronger than we forecast in January SEO
• Uncertainty among enterprises inhibit the growth ofbusiness sector investments – Faster growth of government investments
• Labour market is expected to tighten
– Wage growth remains strong
– Working-age population is decreasing
– Unemployment will drop further
– Households’ real purchasing power will grow markedly and
feed private consumption this year
• Consumer prices are expected to start rising (yoy)in the 2H of this year – Energy and food prices will start to increase
– USD denominated imports become more costly
– In 2016 another round of excise tax hikes
Estonia: More opportunities for growth
4.7
1.62.1 2.1 2.8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
Inventories
Net exports
Investments
GovernmentHouseholds
GDP growth, %
Estonia: Contributions to GDP growth, pp
Sources: Statistics Estonia and Swedbank
10.0%
8.6%
7.4%7.0% 6.7%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
Estonia: Labour market indicators and inflation
Unemployment rate
Consumer prices,YoY
Net wage realgrowth, YoY
Sources: Statistics Estonia and Swedbank
45
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
46/54
Li h i W i l j h il h
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
47/54
© Swedbank
• First half of 2015 looks dismal – Exports in January-February were 6.9% smaller than a
year ago. This was mainly due to Russia’s embargoand recession – exports to it have shrunk by 34.7%.
– Retail trade growth has also weakened – annual
growth in January-February was 2.7%, down from abrisk 8.2% in December. Part of this is cautiousnessafter the euro adoption, thus household consumption islikely to recover later this year.
– Consumption will be supported by rising wages and
deflation – we’ve revised our CPI forecast to -0.5%.
• Growth is likely to return to its trend in 2016 – Recovering euro zone and more stable Russia (and a
likely end of embargo) will support export growth,which expected to expand by 7%
– Parliament elections in autumn will encourage
government to increase public sector wages. We alsoforecast that non-taxable income threshold will be
increased by 10%, further boosting householdconsumption.
– Unemployment will drop to 8.5%, but mainly due toshrinking labor force; employment growth is likely toremain meagre
Lithuania: Wearing long johns until the summer
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2012 2013 2014 2015
Lithuania: Exports of goods, annual growth
Exports of goods to RussiaExports of goodsExports of goods produced in Lithuania (w/o mineral pr.)Exports of goods produced in Lithuania (w/o mineral pr. & Russia)
Source: Statistics Lithuania.
1,6
6,1
3,8
3,3 2,92,3
3,5
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016f
Lithuania: Contributions to GDP growth, pp
Household consumption Government consumption
Investment (excl.invent.) Inventories
Net export GDP growth, %
Sources: Statistics Lithuania and Swedbank forecasts.
47
A di K i i di &
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
48/54
© Swedbank
Appendix: Key economic indicators &
national accounts for Swedbank’shome markets
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
49/54
Estonia Key economic indicators
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
50/54
© Swedbank
Estonia: Key economic indicatorsESTONIA: Key economic indicators, 2013-2016 1/
2013 2014Real GDP grow th, % 1,6 2,1 2,1 (2,0) 2,8 (2,7)
Household consumption 3,8 4,6 4,7 (4,2) 3,6 (3,6)
Government consumption 2,8 2,3 2,0 (1,0) 2,0 (1,0)
Gross fixed capital formation 2,3 -2,8 2,0 (0,6) 3,5 (3,5)
Exports of goods and services 2,4 2,6 2,1 (1,5) 4,0 (3,7)
Imports of goods and services 3,3 2,7 3,1 (2,1) 4,6 (4,2)
Consumer price grow th, % 2,8 -0,1 0,1 (0,3) 2,7 (2,6)
Unemployment rate, % 2/ 8,6 7,4 7,0 (7,3) 6,7 (7,2)
Real net monthly w age grow th, % 4,6 4,2 7,0 (6,5) 3,0 (3,3)
Nominal GDP, billion euro 18,7 19,5 20,5 (20,4) 21,7 (21,7)
Exports of goods and services (nominal), % grow th 3,5 2,4 1,9 (1,5) 4,5 (4,2)
Imports of goods and services (nominal), % grow th 2,9 1,1 2,1 (1,9) 5,1 (4,7)
Balance of goods and services, % of GDP 1,4 2,5 2,3 (2,4) 1,9 (2,2)
Current account balance, % of GDP -1,1 -0,1 -0,3 (-0.9) -1,0 (-1.3)
Current and capital account balance, % of GDP 0,6 0,6 0,8 (-0.4) -0,4 (-1.0)FDI inf low , % of GDP 3,6 6,1 4,9 (3,9) 4,6 (3,7)
Gross external debt, % of GDP 93,5 97,2 93,0 (87,2) 88,8 (83,4)
General government budget balance, % of GDP 3/ -0,5 0,6 -0,5 (-0.4) -0,5 (-0.2)
General government debt, % of GDP 10,1 10,6 10,2 (9,8) 10,0 (9,5)
1/ January 2015 forecast in parenthesis
2/ According to Labour f orce survey
3/ According to Maastricht criterion
2015f 2016f
Sources: Statistics Estonia, Bank of Estonia and Swedbank
Key economic indicators, 2013-2016 1/
2013 2014
Real GDP grow th, % 1,6 2,1 2,1 (2,0) 2,8 (2,7)
Consumer price grow th, % 2,8 -0,1 0,1 (0,3) 2,7 (2,6)
Unemployment rate, % 2/ 8,6 7,4 7,0 (7,3) 6,7 (7,2)
Real net monthly w age grow th, % 4,6 4,2 7,0 (6,5) 3,0 (3,3)
Current and capital account balance, % of GDP 0,6 0,6 0,8 (-0.4) -0,4 (-1.0)
General government budget balance, % of GDP 3/ -0,5 0,6 -0,5 (-0.4) -0,5 (-0.2)
1/ January 2015 forecast in parenthesis
2/ According to Labour force surv ey
3/ According to Maastricht criterion
Sources: Statistics Estonia, Bank of Estonia, Swedbank.
2015f 2016f
50
Latvia: Key economic indicators
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
51/54
© Swedbank
Latvia: Key economic indicatorsLATVIA: Key economic indicators, 2013-2016 1/
2013 2014
Real GDP grow th, % 4,2 2,4 1,9 (1,9) 3,5 (3,5)
Household consumption 6,2 2,3 3,5 (3,5) 4,0 (4,0)
Government consumption 2,9 3,4 0,6 (0,7) 0,5 (0,5)
Gross fixed capital formation -5,2 1,3 -0,5 (-0,5) 10,0 (10,0)
Exports of goods and services 1,4 2,2 1,4 (1,0) 4,0 (4,0)
Imports of goods and services -0,2 1,6 2,3 (2,2) 7,0 (7,0)
Consumer price grow th, % 0,0 0,6 0,8 (0,5) 2,7 (2,5)Unemployment rate, % 2/ 11,9 10,8 10,2 (10,2) 9,2 (9,2)
Real net monthly w age grow th, % 5,7 7,9 5,2 (5,5) 2,9 (3,9)
Nominal GDP, billion euro 23,2 24,1 24,8 (24,9) 26,5 (26,4)
Exports of goods and services (nominal), % grow th 2,2 1,8 1,2 (1,1) 5,9 (5,9)
Imports of goods and services (nominal), % grow th 0,9 1,2 1,5 (1,6) 8,6 (8,9)
Balance of goods and services, % of GDP -3,3 -2,9 -3,0 (-3,0) -4,5 (-4,7)
Current account balance, % of GDP -2,3 -3,1 -2,9 (-2,6) -4,4 (-4,3)
Current and capital account balance, % of GDP 0,1 -0,1 0,2 (-0,2) -1,9 (-2,8)
FDI inf low , % of GDP 2,9 1,5 2,4 (2,4) 3,0 (3,0)
Gross external debt, % of GDP 131,3 138,6 135,9 (136,9) 132,2 (133,7)
General government budget balance, % of GDP 3/ -0,9 -1,6 -1,6 (-1,5) -1,2 (-1,2)
General government debt, % of GDP 38,2 40,3 39,3 (39,4) 38,3 (38,5)
Sources: CSBL and Swedbank.
2015f 2016f
1/ January 2015 f orecast in parenthesis.2/ According to Labour force surv ey .3/ According to Maastricht c riterion.
Key economic indicators, 2013-2016 1/
2013 2014
Real GDP grow th, % 4,2 2,4 1,9 (1,9) 3,5 (3,5)
Consumer price grow th, % 0,0 0,6 0,8 (0,5) 2,7 (2,5)
Unemployment rate, % 2/ 11,9 10,8 10,2 (10,2) 9,2 (9,2)
Real net monthly w age grow th, % 5,7 7,9 5,2 (5,5) 2,9 (3,9)
Current account balance, % of GDP -2,3 -3,1 -2,9 (-2,6) -4,4 (-4,3)
General government budget balance, % of GDP 3/ -0,9 -1,6 -1,6 (-1,5) -1,2 (-1,2)1/ January 2015 forecast in parenthesis.
2/ According to Labour force surv ey .
3/ According to Maastricht criterion. Sources: CSBL and Swedbank.
2015f 2016f
51
Lithuania: Key economic indicators
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
52/54
© Swedbank
Lithuania: Key economic indicators
Key economic indicators, 2013 -2016 1/
2013 2014
Real GDP grow th, % 3,3 2,9 2,3 (2.3) 3,5 (3.5)
Consumer price grow th, % 1,0 0,1 -0,5 (0.7) 2,5 (2.0)
Unemployment rate, % 2/ 11,8 10,7 9,7 (9.7) 8,5 (8.5)
Real net monthly w age grow th, % 3,8 4,8 5,4 (4.2) 4,0 (4.5)
Current account balance, % of GDP 1,6 0,1 -1,6 (-1.7) -3,0 (-3.2)
General government budget balance, % of GDP 3/ -2,6 -1,3 -1,6 (-1.6) -1,0 (-1.0)
1/ January 2015 forecast in parenthesis2/ According to Labour force surv ey .
3/ According to Maastricht criterion.
Sources: Statistics Lithuania,
Bank of Lithuania and Swedbank.
2015f 2016f
LITHUANIA: Key economic indicators, 2013-2016 1/
Real GDP grow th, % 3,3 2,9 2,3 (2.3) 3,5 (3.5)
Household consumption 4,2 5,6 4,3 (4.0) 4,5 (4.7)
Government consumption 1,8 1,3 2,0 (2.5) 2,5 (2.5)
Gross f ixed capital formation 7,0 8,0 2,0 (2.0) 8,0 (8.0)
Exports of goods and services 9,4 3,4 -2,5 (0.0) 7,0 (7.0)
Imports of goods and services 9,0 5,4 1,0 (2.6) 8,4 (8.5)
Consumer price grow th, % 1,0 0,1 -0,5 (0.7) 2,5 (2.0)
Unemployment rate, %2/
11,8 10,7 9,7 (9.7) 8,5 (8.5)Real net monthly w age grow th, % 3,8 4,8 5,4 (4.2) 4,0 (4.5)
Nominal GDP, billion euro 35,0 36,3 37,1 (37.7) 39,3 (39.7)
Exports of goods and services (nominal), % grow th 8,0 1,0 -3,0 (-2.5) 9,0 (8.0)
Imports of goods and services (nominal), % grow th 7,5 2,1 -1,5 (-0.5) 10,8 (10.0)
Balance of goods and services, % of GDP 1,3 0,1 -1,1 (-1.2) -2,5 (-2.7)
Current account balance, % of GDP 1,6 0,1 -1,6 (-1.7) -3,0 (-3.2)
Current and capital account balance, % of GDP 4,6 2,9 1,2 (0.9) 0,0 (-0.7)
FDI inf low , % of GDP 1,5 0,8 1,0 (1.5) 1,5 (2.0)Gross external debt, % of GDP 69,8 70,0 70,1 (68.2) 67,5 (65.8)
General government budget balance, % of GDP 3/ -2,6 -1,3 -1,6 (-1.6) -1,0 (-1.0)
General government debt, % of GDP 39,0 41,1 42,1 (42.6) 37,5 (38.2)
1/ January 2015 forecast in parenthesis
2/ According to Labour force surv ey .
3/ According to Maastricht criterion.
Sources: Statistics Lithuania, Bank of
Lithuania and Swedbank.
52
Contact information
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
53/54
© Swedbank
Contact informationMacro Research
Olof Manner Magnus Alvesson Martin Bolander Andrejs Semjonovs Jerk Matero
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Head of Macro Head of Economic Forecasting Senior Economist Economist Chief IR Strategist
+46 (0)70 567 9312 +46 (0)8 700 94 56 +46 8 700 92 99 +371 6744 58 44 +46 (0)8 700 99 76
Anna Felländer Knut Hallberg Sihem Nekrouf Lija Strašuna Hans Gustafson
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Group Chief Economist Senior Economist Economist, EA to Anna Felländer Senior Economist Chief EM Economist & Strategist +46 (0)8 5859 39 34 +46 (0)8 700 93 17 +46 (0) 725 88 39 34 +371 6744 58 75 +46 (0)8 700 91 47
Harald-Magnus Andreassen Jörgen Kennemar Øystein Børsum Vaiva Še č kut ė
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Chief Economist NO Senior Economist Senior Economist Senior Economist
+47 23 11 82 60 +46 (0)8 700 98 04 +47 99 50 03 92 +370 5258 21 56
Tõnu Mertsina Åke Gustafsson Helene Stangebye Olsen Strategy
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] MadeleinePulk
Chief Economist EE Senior Economist Reserach Assistant [email protected]
+372 888 75 89 +46 (0)8 700 91 45 +47 23 23 82 47 Head of Strategy and Allocation
+46 (0)72 53 23 533
Nerijus Ma č iulis Anna Breman Liis Elmik
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Anders Eklöf
Chief Economist LT Senior Economist Senior Economist [email protected]
+370 5258 22 37 +46 (0)8 700 91 42 +372 888 72 06 Chief FX Strategist
+46 (0)8 700 91 38
M ārti ņš Kaz āks Cathrine Danin Teele Aksalu
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Deputy Group Chief Economist, Chief Economist LV Economist Economist
+371 6744 58 59 +46 (0)8 700 92 97 +372 888 79 25
53
-
8/9/2019 Swedbank Economic Outlook - Update, April 2015
54/54