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Systems Thinkingin sustainability, projects and communication
Sustainable Development: Project Management & Communication September 10, 2013
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Systems Thinking
Systems thinking is the process of understanding how things influence one another within a whole. (Wikipedia)
Systems thinking is a way of understanding reality that emphasizes the relationships among a system's parts, rather than the parts themselves. (Pegasus Communications)
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Intuition & Analysis
Right brain & Left brain
Complexity & Simplicity
Structure & Behavior
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Aim
Using systems thinking to manage and communicate projects that contribute to a
sustainable development
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Aim - rephrased
Causing organized whole bodies to appear to oneself, in order to handle, and make
common, something thrown forth that contributes to a bearable unfolding.
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Exercise: Paper Tear
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Sustainable Sweden?
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Dialogue
• Listen more than you talk• Speak with Intention• Listen with Attention• Speak from Experience• Listen to yourself• Build on each others ideas• Around the campfire
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Ways of explaining reality
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Ways of explaining reality
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Ways of explaining reality
Events
Patterns, Trends
Systemic Structures
Mental Models
What just happened?
What’s been happening?Have we been here or some place similar before?
What are the forces at play contributing to these patterns?
What about our thinking allows this situation to persist?
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Ways of explaining Ways of explaining realityreality
Events
Patterns, Trends
Systemic Structures
Mental Models
Drought
Declining Water Table
IrrigatedLands
ExpectedProfitability
Profitabilityfrom Irrigated
Lands
WaterDemand
WaterExcess/ Shortage
Surface WaterAvailability
+
-+
Pumping
External WaterResources
+
+
+
++
Pressure formore Water
-
Water in LocalAquifers
-
+
Planned Increaseof Water Resources
+
DamsDivertions +
+
+
+
+
PiezometricLevels
+
SeawaterIntrusion
-
Salinization ofAquifers
+
Water SupplyUnit Cost
- ++-
Available Areafor New
Irrigated Lands
-
+
-
B1
B2
Expand ifWater Available
Expand ifLand Available
B3
Water from Pumping
B4
Water fromDivertions
B5
Water fromReservoirs
B6
Costs Escalation
R6
Water Supply ExpectationsDrive Irrigation Development
NaturalVegetation
+
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””Without changing our patterns of Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our the problems we created with our patterns of thought”patterns of thought”
Albert EinsteinAlbert Einstein
Mental Models – Patterns of Mental Models – Patterns of ThoughtThought
””Our life is what our thoughts make itOur life is what our thoughts make it””Marcus Aurelius, Marcus Aurelius,
MeditationsMeditations
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ISIS
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Ways of explaining Ways of explaining realityreality
Events
Patterns, Trends
Systemic Structures
Mental Models
Drought
Declining Water Table
IrrigatedLands
ExpectedProfitability
Profitabilityfrom Irrigated
Lands
WaterDemand
WaterExcess/ Shortage
Surface WaterAvailability
+
-+
Pumping
External WaterResources
+
+
+
++
Pressure formore Water
-
Water in LocalAquifers
-
+
Planned Increaseof Water Resources
+
DamsDivertions +
+
+
+
+
PiezometricLevels
+
SeawaterIntrusion
-
Salinization ofAquifers
+
Water SupplyUnit Cost
- ++-
Available Areafor New
Irrigated Lands
-
+
-
B1
B2
Expand ifWater Available
Expand ifLand Available
B3
Water from Pumping
B4
Water fromDivertions
B5
Water fromReservoirs
B6
Costs Escalation
R6
Water Supply ExpectationsDrive Irrigation Development
NaturalVegetation
+
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System
a set of things – people, cells, molecules, or whatever – interconnected in such a way that they produce their own pattern or behavior over time. (Meadows, 2008)
a group of interacting, interrelated, and interdependent components that form a complex and unified whole. (Pegasus Communications)
an entity which maintains its existence through the mutual interaction of its parts. (www.systems-thinking.org)
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Systems
• Sweden• Uppsala• Uppsala University• The Geosciences building• CEMUS• Sustainable Development: Project
management and Communication• You
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The Sustainability Compass
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Systems (S)•Sources, Stocks, Sinks and flows•Feedback•Delay•Non-linear effects•Thresholds•Positive and negative casual relationships
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If A then B
A
B
C
D
Cause and EffectCause and EffectTypical approachTypical approach
Systems approachSystems approach
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Positive and negative causation?
If A goes up, then B goes up
If A goes down then B goes down
If A goes up, then B goes down
If A goes down, then B goes up
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Exercise: Living Loops
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Casual Loop Diagrams
A causal loop diagram (CLD) is a diagram that helps you visualize and understand how the different key parts and elements in a complex system interact.
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Causal Loop DiagramCausal Loop Diagram
Causal -Causal -
refers to cause-and-effect refers to cause-and-effect relationshiprelationship
Loop -Loop -
refers to refers to closed chainclosed chain of cause and of cause and effecteffect
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Conceptual modell on a village & landscape scale
Tree Planting andCultivation
Tree Density
Soil Fertility
Wind Speed
Local Rainfall
Family FoodProduction
CropPlantingSuccess
FuelwoodAvailability
ForagingTime
HouseholdIncome
SoilMoisture
Crop Yield
++
+
-
+
+
+
++
-
Farmers' Sense of Crisis( Potential for Behavior
Shift)
-
+
+
-
+
Potential for Non-FarmIncome Generation
-
+
+
ET
+
Livestockvisiting
Farmers'Fields
+
ConflictsHerders/Farmers
LocalLivestockAccessDistant
Resources
HerderMonitoring
Time
+
-
HouseholdSubsistence
+
Drought Durationand Intensity
-
Foodpurchases
-
-
AdvancingDesert
FoodExport
+
+
Farmers'Livestock
++
+
FuelwoodSales
+
B1
- B2a-
B3a
B2b
B2c
B2d
B2e
B3b
B4a
B4b
B4c
R5
Tree Removal
-
+
Fodder infields
Forestry officersinterventions
+
Local Decisionand
EnforcementCapacity
+
-
-
+
-+
- -
HerderLivestock
EnvironmentalDegradation
+
+
+
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Sahel Reforestation Process
1975 2003
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Drawing casual loop diagrams
Draw a causal loop diagram (CLD) that portrays how your chosen indicators interact in a systematic way. Start with the indicators you have and add indicators that you think are important for the dynamics of the system.
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LEVERAGE POINTS
Places within a complex system where a small shift in one thing can produce big changes in everything. Points of power.
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Identified leverage points depend on
• What system we are looking at• How we are looking at it• How we have conceptualized it• Our mental models
And they are often counter-intuitive (J.W. Forrester)
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Places to intervene in a system
12. Constants, parameters, numbers11. Sizes of the buffers and other stabilizing
stocks, relative to their flows10. The structure of material stocks and flows9. The length of delays, relative to the rate of
system change8. The strength of negative feedback loops,
relative to the impacts they are trying to correct against
7. The gain around driving positive feedback loops
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Places to intervene in a system
6. The structure of information flows (who does and who does not have access to what kinds of information).
5. The rules of the system (such as incentives, punishments, constraints)
4. The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure
3. The goals of the system2. The mindset or paradigm out of which the system –it’s
goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters – arises1. The power to transcend paradigms
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LEVERAGE POINTS
Try to classify the levarage points that you have found by using Dana Meadows categories
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CLOSING WORDS