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Tackling Climate Change and Food Insecurity: Challenges and Opportunities for EAC
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 1The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems
Presentation at the Inception Meeting of the PACT-EAC Project Nuhu Hatibu; CEO – Kilimo Trust
Putting Our Abundant Water Resources to Work
Total Renewable Water Resources (Km3/year)• Tanzania = 96• Uganda = 66• Kenya = 31• Burundi = 13• Rwanda = 10
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… because, the main impacts of climate change on food security and economy … occur through water
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 2The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems
For example , GDP Growth (%/annum) in Tanzania
-20 -10 4 10
(25)
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
25
% Variation of Rainfall from the Mean
An
nu
al G
row
th o
f G
DP
(%
)
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… another example of impacts …through water..
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 3The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems
Damages to infrastructure, and economic loses in Kenya
A: 1997-98 El Nino
B: 1998-2000 La
Nina
-
1,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
Eco
nom
ic L
oss
in
US
$
A: 1997-98 El Nino
B: 1998-2000 La Nina
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Loses a
s %
of
Tota
l G
DP
After – the UN World Water Development Report 3 – pg 70-71
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BUT, the Problem is the LIMITED Infrastructure to Manage “Water & its Variability” …
Installed capacity in SSA is about 500 m3 per capita - USA or Australia have more than 5,000 m3 per capita;
Of the world’s 45,000 large dams, only 1,000 (2%) in SSA;
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 4
For example, it is the lack of storage, that makes the abundant water resources (and its variability) - a cause of misery rather than – the water itself
Ethiopia SSA-Average SAfrica Thailand Brazil N-America0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
50500
750
1300
3300
6150
Water Storage Gap - SSA vs Rest of the World
Wat
er S
tora
ge m
3 pe
r ca
pita
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… therefore LIMITED Infrastructure is very costly … and will become worse with Climate Change
For example, in Japan, heavy investment in infrastructure since the 1970s has reduced annual economic losses due to floods from 20% of GNI, to less than 0.5%; and
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 5
However, Heavy investment in developed countries shows high returns - which proves that investment pays
In the USA, many of the largest federal infrastructural investments have been on water control, storage, management and abstraction.
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… one consequence is that, most of our God-given “free” Rainwater Go to Waste! Rainfall total in the
EAC is about 1,750 Km3 per year; or
About 13 m3 per person/year; But
Most of this water is lost to evaporation or flow to the oceans
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… so, Adaptation of Food Security to CC, requires as the 1st priority, the management of rainwater on the farmWHY?The soil provides the largest “free” water
storage infrastructure;Compared to Irrigation, RWH and SWC
can be implemented virtually everywhere; and
Adoption of SWC in the USA made the largest single contribution (45%) to the increase in average wheat yields from 750 kg/ha to 1,800 kg/ha from 1936 to 1977. This was ahead of improved varieties (30%), other equipment (20%) and fertilizer practice (5%).
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… also, Expand, Improve its Efficiency, and Adapt to CC, conventional irrigation
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Burun
di
Rwan
da
Ugand
a
Tanz
ania
Kenya
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
% U
tilizati
on
of
Irri
gati
on
Pote
nti
al
EAC South Asia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
% U
tilizati
on
of
Irri
gati
on
Pote
nti
al
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… plus, for Adaptation to CC, expand use of modern inputs to reduce water requirement for food production
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 90
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
(a) Relationship between water productivity and yields
Yields (MT /ha)
Wate
r pro
ducti
vit
y (
m3/t
onne)
Sweet potatoes
Rice
Maize
Irish potato
Dairy
Cassava
Beef
Beans
Banana
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
1
5.6
2.8
0.330000000000003
2.4
1.5
33
3.3
3.9
Current water of productivity- ET per harvest (m3 /Kg)
Evapo-transpiration(m3/Kg)
Com
modit
ies
Sweet potatoes
Rice
Maize
Irish potato
Dairy
Cassava
Beef
Beans
Banana
0.5
3.2
1.4
0.14
1.3
0.8
10
1.7
2.1
Water of productivity with Optimum Commodity
yields(m3/Kg)
Evapo-transpiration (m3/Kg)
Com
modit
ies
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… for serious Adaptation of the Economy, to Climate Change; we require …
Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 10
Necessary and Sufficient Water Control and Storage Infrastructure (with integrated water use) that is adapted to the anticipated climate change
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…BUT, we also require regional markets and trade – for sustainable Food Security
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FRANCE UK USA GERMANY0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
CEREALSPULSESMEAT
Food I
mport
s a
s a
Pro
port
ion o
f Tota
l C
onsum
pti
on
(%)
Because, the world market for food is very thin …
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…Because… Food self-sufficiency and/or
command and control, is a human trait;
That is why “land-grabbing” is as old as human civilization – although it has nothing to do we land – but rather a lot to do with water!
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… and because it would very costly to achieve 100% adaptation to climate variability & change
• To transfer some of the Risk to the Global Insurance Industry; because
• Potential for weather-indexed agricultural insurance is expanding as the OECD countries shift from direct agricultural subsidies, to subsidies for agri-insurance
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We need a robust weather-indexed insurance
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…however, there are serious challenges …1. Very low trust in insurance;2. Difficult to make index-insurance;
comprehensible to the never-before insured;
3. Limited “livelihood-focused” indexes4. Inadequate historical data for rating
the selected indexes; leading to 5. High basis-risk (poor correlation (r2
< 90%) of index and actual losses).
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…which require serious work, including to: …• Create informed demand (increase awareness,
acceptability, and willingness to pay);• Ascertain the availability and quality of data;• Build necessary capacities, databases and
models;• Create a proposition of real value to the insured;• Integrate agri-insurance onto a wider package of
agricultural services – and make it regional wide;• Engage the private sector to graft onto existing
delivery channels; and• Establish enabling legal and regulatory
frameworks.Arusha - Feb 23rd, 2012 The Kilimo Trust: regional solutions to local problems 15
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…otherwise…• Pilots die as pilots; and
• Anybody who tells you that she can offer index agri-insurance at short notice and without the necessary investment – is deceiving you!
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In summary and conclusion
• It is essential that:– all decision-makers in the EAC, from – farmers in their fields to the highest Council
of Ministers, are – aware of the need, and – have the capacity to improve innumerable
climate-sensitive decisions, through– effective risk reduction investment, actions,
and management. • We are pleased that PACT-EAC will be
working on this, but more dedicated action is required.
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THANK YOU!
For more information & follow-up, please visit
WWW.kilimotrust.ORG
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