Tanzania –Building a Productive Social Safety Net
Presentation to the DPG Meeting on Nov 12, 2013
Guide to the presentation Rationale Overall Approach Benefits and Costs Institutional Arrangements Challenges Implementation Status Strategic Issues
Why a social safety net in Tanzania?
Good economic growth but not commensurate with poverty reduction…
-50
510
15
Con
sum
ptio
n gr
owth
(%)
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Consumption percentiles
Growth incidence, Tanzania Mainland, 2001 - 2007
High economic growth (7% annual average 2000-2007) but still high levels of poverty and vulnerability (poverty reduction 2000-2007: 2.2% total)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan
Feb
Mar
ch
Apr
il
May
Jun
e
Jul
y
Aug
ust
Sep
t
Oct
Nov
Dec
% H
Hs
agriculturesmall businesslivestockcommerce/businessdaily w ork
Seasonal shocks deepen chronic poverty and prevent improving wellbeing of the poorest
Seasonality in labor and livestock activities
… however, not everybody is equally poor…
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000
100,000
Distribution of Consumption
Average per capita ConsumptionFood Poverty LineBasic Needs Poverty Line
Tsh per adult equivalent per month
a significant number of people is very close to the poverty line…
Poorest 10% 2nd Poorest 10%
3rd Poorest 10%
4th Poorest 10%
02000400060008000
1000012000140001600018000
Average per capita consumption among the poor
… but there are differences among the poor.
… and a significant proportion of the population is still highly vulnerable
High levels of poverty and food insecurity…
…and unacceptable social indicators
1 2 3 4 5 60
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000Caloric Consumption by Wealth Quintile
Caloric Con-sump-tion
Kcal
per
day
(adu
lt eq
uiva
lent
)
- Primary school attendance (poorest 40%): <80%
-Secondary school attendance (poorest 60%): <15%
- Stunting (poorest 60%): >40%- Births attended by skilled staff
(poorest 20%): 31%- Under 5 mortality: >130 per 1,000
- Life expectancy at birth: 52
How would a safety net in Tanzania look like?
Need for a productive social safety net system approach
To cope with chronic poverty
To mitigate shocks
To reduce vulnerability in the mid- and long-term by investing in human capital of children
To move on to a positive trajectory
Poor and vulnerable households require different types of support –A single intervention is not enough
+
CCTs(HH with children
and pregnant women)
Incl. monthly community
sessions
PWP(HH with adults able to work)Plus savings promotion
The Productive Social Safety Net: A system to support the poor and vulnerable in Tanzania
Income generating activities,Savings,Training
Education, health and nutrition
services
Human capital accumulation and
sustained reduction of poverty
v
Smooth consumptio
n, accumulati
on of assets
v
Participation for several years
*A family could be beneficiary of both programs
Unified registry of Beneficiaries
Common targeting
Who will be supported by the social safety net and how much will it cost?
Benefits and beneficiaries Target population: Population under the food poverty
line 1.2 million households (about 7.5 million people or 15% of
the population) Benefits
From the CCT: Basic benefit: US$5 per month per household Variable benefit: up to additional US$5 per month per household
From the cash-for-work: US$1.35 per day for up to 60 days in three months
Participation in the two programs equivalent to about 35% of annual household’s consumption
Hondu
ras (P
RAF)
Ecuad
or (B
DH)
Jamaic
a (PATH
)
Colombia
(Fam
ilia en
Acc
ion)
Red S
olida
ria (E
S)
Red de
Opo
rtunid
ades
(PA)
Guatem
ala (M
ifapro
)
Tanz
ania
(CCT o
nly)
Nicarau
gua (
RPS)
Mexico
(Opo
rtunid
ades
)
Tanz
ania
(CCT+
PW)0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
It is a generous program…
Size of the benefit as % of pre-transfer consumption among beneficiaries
… with expected significant impacts… Ex-ante simulations indicate:
Extreme poverty reduction of 52% Extreme poverty gap reduction of 43%
… and affordable
Indon
esia
PKH (2
010)
Turke
y CCT (
2008
)
Malawi S
CT (20
11)
Peru
Juntos
(201
1)
Keny
a OVC (2
010)
Guatem
ala MFP
(201
0)
Namibi
a gran
ts (20
10)
Jamaic
a PATH
(201
1)
Colombia
FA (2
010)
Rwanda
VUP (20
12)
Hondu
ras PR
AF (20
10)
Philip
pines
4Ps (
2013
)
Mex Opo
rtunid
ades
(201
1)
Brazil B
F (20
11)
Ghana
LEAP (2
014)*
Tanz
ania
PSSN
(201
6)*
Indon
esia
UCT (20
06)
Ecua
dor B
DH (201
2)
South
Africa C
SG
Ethiop
ia PS
NP
Namibi
a (SP
)**
Leso
tho (S
P)**
Mauriti
us (S
P)**
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Annu
al b
udge
t as
% o
f G
DP
*Estimated **Social Pensions
Annual cost of cash transfer programs as a % of the GDP
The cost once the program to reach the 1.2 million households: <1% of the GDP
Institutional Arrangements
Options for Scaling Up GoT had in Sept
Option 1: Reaching the 1.2 million households with transfers costing $300m/year by December 2015
Option 2: Having 1.2 million households targeted and enrolled in CCT before December 2015 then phase- in Public Works, COMSIP, nutrition interventions
Option 3: To only conduct the targeting and enrolment processes for all 1.2 million HHs in the program
Government endorsed the first option
Main Challenges for Scaling Up Moving from a social fund intervention
towards a social safety net approach
Capacity at LGA and ward levels to facilitate scaling up of a community-based approach
Ensuring predictable and timely transfers
Constructing and broadening the evidence base to rationalize SP expenditures to ensure sustainability
Implementation Status Short-term Roll out Plan: Nov 2013 – Jan 2014
(In progress now) Reach out to 12 Districts in Mtwara & Lindi Regions To reach 131,332 households Capacity Building for LGA teams, targeting and
enrolling, procedures and processes and tools Assess the roll out by January 2014
Long Term Detailed roll out to 2015 February Mission will incorporate lessons from the
assessment and finalize detailed massive roll plan: changes in processes, timing, costing, ICT/MIS and T/A
requirements
Coverage for Short-term Roll Out Plan
Estimated Number of Beneficiaries in the first 12 Project Authority Areas (PAAs)
District/LGA Population
Number of H/H Number of Villages
Beneficiary HH
1 Mtwara DC 284,945
68,895 157 13,779
2 Masasi DC 532,199
144,913 222 28,983
3 Newala DC 212,390
56,786 155 11,357
4 Nanyumbu DC 191,750
46,181 89 6,927
5 Mtwara MC 111,454
28,230 91 4,235
6 Tandahimba DC
251,126
82,136 157 9,856
7 Tunduru DC 311,866
77,491 150 15,498
8 Lindi DC 257,325
64,354 132 9,653
9 Lindi TC 103,681
22,787 83 3,418
10 Kilwa DC 214,094
44,377 98 8,875
11 Ruangwa DC 151,536
43,170 89 8,634
12 Nachingwea DC
190,511
50,582 122 10,116
Total 2,812,877
729,902 1,545 131,332
Strategic Issues Fiscal Sustainability
Option needs US$300m per yr at full coverage Sources of funds Government and donors Initial modeling suggests that fiscal impact of 0.6 - 0.8% of
GDPSpending on Safety Nets in a Selection of Low-Income Countries
Inclusion of PSSN in the Government’s recurrent budget MoF has advised that PSSN is in the budget preparation
guidelines for FY 2014/15 Ministry of Finance preparing Cabinet Paper Need support with policy note to inform Cabinet Paper
Country % of GDP
Per capita income
Approx. US$ per capita Spending
Ethiopia 4.5% $879 $39.54Madagascar 0.9% $768 $ 6.92Malawi 4.4% $577 $25.39
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
Objective of the productive social safety net
Increasing consumption of extremely poor on a permanent basisSmoothing consumption during lean seasons and shocksInvesting in human capital
Strengthening links with income generating activitiesIncrease access to improved social services
Tanzania Productive Social Safety Net Provision of predictable and timely cash transfers
through a combination of : CCTs for poor and vulnerable households (Education, health, nutrition) Participation in seasonal cash-for-work programs during the lean season and
shocks (a labor intensive intervention with 75/25 ratio of labor/capital)The same group of households will be beneficiary of both programs (over 85% beneficiaries will be able to participate in the CCTs and the cash-for-work
Institutional reform At the Social Protection sector level (Coordination, institutional responsibilities,
rationalization of SP expenditures) Implementing agency level (from a social fund to a safety nets approach)
Instruments to support a system approach Common targeting mechanism Single registry of beneficiaries Same payment mechanism Comprehensive and integrated MIS
In all LGAs select villages using a
Village/Mtaa/Shehia Index
Village Assembly
identifies the poorest
households
CMC collects information
from households
TASAF verifies list of beneficiaries applying
a PMT
Village Assembly
validates final list of
households
CMCs collects information to
register beneficiaries in
the URB
URB(administered by
TASAF)
VC sends list of hh via LGAs
Selection and Registry of Beneficiaries
TASAF sends list of hh via LGAs
Decentralized operations and processes Central level (TASAF): Overall management and monitoring, support to sub-national
authorities, disbursement of funds. Coordination with other SP actors (Welfare)
Regional level: Follow up of implementation in LGAs
LGA level: Provision of support to ward level extension staff. Technical support and guidance including training and follow-up of implementation in the villages. Selection of works and activities.
Ward level: Direct provision of technical support to communities and households
Village level: Selection of beneficiaries by CMC under oversight of Village Council, endorsed by Village Assembly, overall support to program
CMCs: Day to day implementation management, collection of information to register beneficiaries and to verify compliance with co-responsibilities
Education and health sectors: Provision of information on compliance with co-responsibilities
Payment Agents: Direct transfer to beneficiary households and reconciliation of payments
Social Protection Policy Environment Draft National Social Protection not yet
endorsed by Cabinet but in principle it is accepted
Cabinet has asked for an action Plan that will operationalize the Framework
Ministry of Finance is working on the plan (timeframe for this work not known)
Implementation Status (cont….) Procurement processes are in progress for:
Unified Registry of Beneficiaries Mobile Payments MIS enhancement Recruitment for staff almost finalized at national
and district levels Procurement of goods in progress International TA is in place assisting with massive
scale-up