Download - Teknik Analisis Jalur Dan Terapannya
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TEKNIK ANALISIS JALUR DAN TERAPANNYAProf. Dr. Maruf Akbar
PROGRAM PASCASARJANA UNIVERSITAS NEGERI JAKARTA2010
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A. PENDAHULUANTUJUAN PENGGUNAAN ANALISIS JALUR (PATH ANALYSIS)1. ANALISIS JALUR MERUPAKAN SUATU CARA UNTUK MEMPELAJARI PENGARUH-PENGARUH LANGSUNG DAN TIDAK LANGSUNG SEJUMLAH VARIABEL YANG DIHIPOTESISKAN SEBAGAI VARIABEL SEBAB TERHADAP VARIABEL AKIBAT (As a method for studying the direct and indirect effects of variables hypothesized as causes of variables treated as effects) ( Sewall Wright dikutip Elazar J. Pedhazur. Multiple Regression in Behavioral Research. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1981, p. 580)
As was noted above, path analysis is not a method for discovering causes, but a method applied to a causal model formulated by the researcher on the basis of knowledge and theoretical consideration. (Elazar J. Pedhazur. Multiple Regression in Behavioral Research. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1981, p. 580)
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CONTOH MASALAH
TUJUAN PENELITIAN
KINERJAPENELITIAN KAUSALVARIABELVARIABELPENYEBAB
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DASAR TEORIJoint Effects of Goals and Self-Efficacy on performance (Stephen P. Robbins, and Timothy A. Judge. Organizational Behavior. New Jersey: Pearson Prentice Hall, 2007, p. 181)
Managers setsdifficult, specific goalsfor job or taskIndividuals setshigher personal(self-set) goalfor their performanceIndividuals hashigher level ofjob or taskperformanceIndividuals hasconfidence thatgiven level ofperformance will be attained(self-efficacy)
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CONTOH MODEL TEORETIK PENELITIAN X2
X1 Y
X3 KINERJAUPAYAKERJA(SELF-SET) KOMUNIKASIINTERPERSONALSELF-EFFICACY
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ALTERNATIF LAIN MEMBANGUN MODEL TEORETIK PENELITIAN
TEORISUMBERDESKRIPSITEORETIKVARIABEL-VARIABELPENGARUH(DE, IE, TE)
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PLACEMENT OF THE THEORY IN QUANTITATIVE STUDIES ONE USES THEORY DEDUCTIVELY AND PLACES IT TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE PLAN FOR A STUDY. IN QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH THE OBJECTIVE IS TO TEST OR VERIFY A THEORY, RATHER THAN TO DEVELOP IT (JOHN W. CRESWELL. RESEARCH DESIGN QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES. NEW DEHLI: SAGE PUBLICATIONS, 1994, p.87)
Researcher Test a TheoryResearcher Test Hypotheses or ResearchQuestions Derived from the TheoryResearcher Operationalizes ConceptsOr Variables Derived from the TheoryResearcher Uses an Instrumentto Measure Variables in the Theory
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HUBUNGAN ANTAR VARIABEL
KORELASI
KAUSAL
3. TIMBAL BALIK (RECIPROCAL)
SPURIOUS
5. PENGARUH LANGSUNG DAN TIDAK LANGSUNG
XYXYXYXYZX1YX2
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B. CONTOH ANALISISMASALAH PENELITIAN 1. Apakah ada pengaruh langsung komunikasi interpersonal terhadap self-efficay? 2. Apakah ada pengaruh langsung komunikasi interpersonal terhadap upaya kerja? 3. Apakah ada pengaruh langsung self-efficay terhadap upaya kerja? 4. Apakah ada pengaruh langsung self-efficacy terhadap kinerja? 5. Apakah ada pengaruh langsung upaya kerja terhadap kinerja?
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HIPOTESIS STATISTIKHo. : 21 0 Hi. : 21 > 02. Ho. : 31 0 Hi. : 31 > 03. Ho. : 32 0 Hi. : 32 > 04. Ho. : y2 0 Hi. : y2 > 05. Ho. : y3 0 Hi. : y3 > 0
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PILIHAN ANALISIS (SOFTWARE PROGRAM)SPSSLISREL
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PILIHAN 1TAHAPAN: 1. MEMBUAT PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL 2. MENCARI DAN MENGUJI SIGNIFIKANSI KOEFISIEN JALUR 3. MENCARI BESARAN PENGARUH LANGSUNG, TIDAK LANGSUNG DAN PENGARUH TOTAL 4. PENAFSIRAN
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PROSEDURMEMBUAT PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL
2 X2 4 p42 X1 p21 p32 X4
p31 p43 X3 3
SELF-EFFICACY KOMUNIKASIINTERPERSONALUPAYAKERJA(SELF-SET)KINERJA
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PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL1. p21
X1 X2 X2 = p21X1 + 2 22. X2
p32 X1 p31
3 X3 = p31X1 + p32X2 + 3 X3
KOMUNIKASIINTERPERSONALSELF-EFFICACY KOMUNIKASIINTERPERSONALSELF-EFFICACYUPAYAKERJA(SELF-SET)
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LANJUTAN y = py2 X2 + py3 X3 + 4
SELF-EFFICACYUPAYAKERJA(SELF-SET)KINERJA4py2py3X2X3
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MENGHITUNG KOEFISIEN KORELASI ANTAR VARIABEL
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MENGHITUNG KOEFISIEN JALURX2 = p21X1 + 2
p21 = 0, 719 (nilai t = 7.174 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.000) t = r (n-2)/(1 r2) t tabel = (0.05, dk= n-2) = 1,67 = 0,719 (50-2)/(1-0,52) = 7.17
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LANJUTAN2. X3 = p31X1 + p32X2 + 3
p31 = 0, 478 (nilai t = 3.533 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.001)p32 = 0, 345 (nilai t = 2.555 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.014)
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LANJUTANMenghitung nilai t
t1 = p31 / (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.478/ (1-0.585)(2.07)/(50-2-1) = 3,536 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684
t2 = p32 / (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.345/ (1-0.585)(2.07)/(50-2-1) = 2,552 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684
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LANJUTAN3. y = py2 X2 + py3 X3 + 4 py2 = 0, 526 (nilai t = 5.125 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.000)py3 = 0, 408 (nilai t = 3.975 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.000)
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LANJUTANMenghitung nilai t
t1 = p42 / (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.526/ (1-0.740)(1.904)/(50-2-1) = 5,125 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684
t2 = p43 / (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.408/ (1-0.740)(1.904)/(50-2-1) = 3,975 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684
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UJI HIPOTESISHo. : 21 = 0 Hi. : 21 > 0
p21 = 0, 719 (nilai t = 7.174 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.000) t = r (n-2)/(1 r2) t tabel = (0.05, dk= n-2) = 1,6 = 0,719 (50-2)/(1-0,52) = 7.17 Kriteria Penolakan Ho. 1. =0.05 > p (Sig) tolak Ho. dan =0.05 < p (Sig) terima Ho 2. t hitung > t tabel, tolak Ho t hitung < t tabel terima Ho Kesimpulan : Tolak Ho, dengan demikian ada pengaruh langsung x1 terhadap x2
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LANJUTAN2. Ho. : 31 0Hi. : 31 > 0p31 = 0, 478 (nilai t = 3.533 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.001)p32 = 0, 345 (nilai t = 2.555 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.014)3. Ho. : 32 0 Hi. : 32 > 0 t1 = p31 / (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.478/ (1-0.585)(2.07)/(50-2-1) = 3,536 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684 t2 = p32 / (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.345/ (1-0.585)(2.07)/(50-2-1) = 2,552 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684
Kriteria Penolakan Ho. 1. =0.05 > p (Sig) tolak Ho. dan =0.05 < p (Sig) terima Ho 2. t hitung > t tabel, tolak Ho t hitung < t tabel terima Ho Kesimpulan : Tolak Ho, dengan demikian ada pengaruh langsung x1 terhadap x3. Dan Tolak Ho. Dengan demikian ada pengaruh langsung x2 terhadap x3
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LANJUTAN4. Ho. : y2 0Hi. : y2 > 0 5. Ho. : y3 0 Hi. : y3 > 0p42 = 0, 526 (nilai t = 5.125 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.000)p43 = 0, 408 (nilai t = 3.975 dan nilai probabilitas (Sig.)=0.000)t1 = p42 / (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.526/ (1-0.740)(1.904)/(50-2-1) = 5,125 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684 t2 = p43 / (1- R2) C11/(n-k-1) =0.408/ (1-0.740)(1.904)/(50-2-1) = 3,975 t tabel = (0.05, dk=47) = 1.684Kriteria Penolakan Ho. 1. =0.05 > p (Sig) tolak Ho. dan =0.05 < p (Sig) terima Ho 2. t hitung > t tabel, tolak Ho t hitung < t tabel terima Ho Kesimpulan : Tolak Ho, dengan demikian ada pengaruh langsung x2 terhadap x4. Dan Tolak Ho. Dengan demikian ada pengaruh langsung x3 terhadap x4
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MENGHITUNG BESARAN PENGARUH RESIDU ()p22 = 1- 0.517 =0,694
2. p33 = 1- 0.585 = 0,644
3. py4 = 1- 0.740 = 0, 509
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MODEL TEORETIK PENELITIAN DAN HASIL
p22 =0, 694 X2 2 4 py2=0,526 p44 = 0,504 p21=0,719 p32=0,345X1 Y
p31=0,478 py3 =0,408 3 X3 p33 =0,644
SELF-EFFICACY KOMUNIKASIINTERPERSONALUPAYAKERJA(SELF-SET)KINERJA
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MENGHITUNG PENGARUH LANGSUNG, TIDAK LANGSUNG, DAN TOTAL
Pengaruh
variabel
Pengaruh Kausal
Langsung
Melalui X2
Melalui X3
Melalui X2 dan X3
Total
X1->X2
0,719
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0,719
X1->X3
0,478
(0,719)(0,345)=
0,248
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0,726
X1->Y
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(0,719)(0,526)=
0,378
(0,478)(0,408)=
0,195
(0,719)(0,345)(0,408)= 0,101
0,674
X2->X3
0,345
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0,345
X2->Y
0,526
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0,526
X3->Y
0,408
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0,408
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KESIMPULAN 1.Ada pengaruh langsung komunikasi interpersonal terhadap self-efficay 2. Ada pengaruh langsung komunikasi interpersonal terhadap upaya kerja 3. Ada pengaruh langsung self-efficay terhadap upaya kerja 4. Ada pengaruh langsung self-efficacy terhadap kinerja 5. Ada pengaruh langsung upaya kerja terhadap kinerja
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2. ALTERNATIF ANALISIS KE DUADATA MATRIK KOVARIANS
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LANJUTAN (Save as Type ketik PATHANL.spl.) muncul
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LANJUTAN (KLIK Icon Gb. Orang berlari L) didapat :
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LANJUTAN
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LANJUTAN
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LANJUTAN
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LANJUTAN
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LANJUTAN
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LANJUTAN
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MODEL TEORETIK PENELITIAN DAN HASIL
X2 2 4 p42=0,53 p21=0,72 p32=0,35X1 X4
p31=0,48 p43 =0,41 3 X3
SELF-EFFICACY KOMUNIKASIINTERPERSONALUPAYAKERJA(SELF-SET)KINERJA
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LANJUTAN
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MODEL TEORETIK PENELITIAN DAN HASIL (t hitung)
X2 2 4 th= 5,18 th= 7,17 th= 2,58X1 X4
th=3,57 th = 4,02 3 X3
SELF-EFFICACY KOMUNIKASIINTERPERSONALUPAYAKERJA(SELF-SET)KINERJA
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SELAMAT MENCOBA