Download - The 2040 Imperative: Zero Emissions by 2040
www.bcsea.org
The climate deniers’ argument
Barry Saxifrage, May 2014
Reality Check
The Rapid Progressof Renewables…?
Reality Check
Barry Saxifrage, May 2014
Exported and imported carbon emissions
Potsdam Institute
2°C“A nice Utopia”
International Energy Agency chief economist
Fatih Birol
2°C“We need a miracle”
International negotiations
chief Christiana Figueres
“The idea of a 2°C target is largely out of
the window.”
Former UK government
advisor Professor Sir Robert Watson
“There is no longer a non-radical option. If developed economies are to play an equitable role in holding warming to 2°C with 66% probability it would require at least a 40% reduction by 2018,
70% reduction by 2024 and 90% by 2030. This would require “in effect a Marshall plan for
energy supply.”
Kevin AndersonDeputy Director,
Tyndall Centre for Climate Research
2°C
2°C is the boundary between ‘dangerous’ and ‘very dangerous.’
James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist
2012
493GT
2015
304GT
2020
104GT
2025
0
2030
for a 75% chancethat the global temperature will not rise by 2°C
The 2015 Global Carbon Budget
493Gigatonnes of CO2
= a 25% chancethat we’ll crash right through the 2°C barrier
The 2015 Global Carbon Budget
493Gigatonnes of CO2
2012: 699 MT
Canada’s Other Greenhouse Gases
MethaneNitrous OxideThe F Gases
Also all to zero by 2040
Canada’s 2015 CO2 emissions
500Megatonnes of CO2
Canada’s shareof global emissions
1.25%
Canada’s shareof global emissions
1.25%The Non-Equity Model,
divided by current emissions
Canada’s totalCarbon Budget
6,000 Mt of CO2
Canada’s shareof global emissions
0.5%The Equity Model,
divided by population
Canada’s totalCarbon Budget
2,400 Mt of CO2
The Equity Model,
divided by population
Exhausted by 2020
How longwill the budget
last?
Annual reduction in
CO2 emissions
% of Canada’s
2015 emissions
Year by when zero
emissions is achieved
Mt of CO2 released
before before reaching
zero
Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level
Year by when 6,000 Mt
carbon budget is exhausted
5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028
10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029
15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030
20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033
25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a
33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a
50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a
CANADA’S CHOICES
Annual reduction in
CO2 emissions
% of Canada’s
2015 emissions
Year by when zero
emissions is achieved
Mt of CO2 released
before before reaching
zero
Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level
Year by when 6,000 Mt
carbon budget is exhausted
5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028
10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029
15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030
20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033
25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a
33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a
50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a
CANADA’S CHOICES
Annual reduction in
CO2 emissions
% of Canada’s
2015 emissions
Year by when zero
emissions is achieved
Mt of CO2 released
before before reaching
zero
Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level
Year by when 6,000 Mt
carbon budget is exhausted
5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028
10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029
15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030
20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033
25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a
33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a
50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a
CANADA’S CHOICES
Annual reduction in
CO2 emissions
% of Canada’s
2015 emissions
Year by when zero
emissions is achieved
Mt of CO2 released
before before reaching
zero
Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level
Year by when 6,000 Mt
carbon budget is exhausted
5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028
10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029
15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030
20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033
25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a
33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a
50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a
CANADA’S CHOICES
Annual reduction in
CO2 emissions
% of Canada’s
2015 emissions
Year by when zero
emissions is achieved
Mt of CO2 released
before before reaching
zero
Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level
Year by when 6,000 Mt
carbon budget is exhausted
5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028
10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029
15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030
20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033
25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a
33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a
50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a
CANADA’S CHOICES
Annual reduction in
CO2 emissions
% of Canada’s
2015 emissions
Year by when zero
emissions is achieved
Mt of CO2 released
before before reaching
zero
Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level
Year by when 6,000 Mt
carbon budget is exhausted
5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028
10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029
15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030
20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033
25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a
33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a
50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a
CANADA’S CHOICES
Annual reduction in
CO2 emissions
% of Canada’s
2015 emissions
Year by when zero
emissions is achieved
Mt of CO2 released
before before reaching
zero
Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level
Year by when 6,000 Mt
carbon budget is exhausted
5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028
10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029
15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030
20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033
25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a
33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a
50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a
CANADA’S CHOICES
Annual reduction in
CO2 emissions
% of Canada’s
2015 emissions
Year by when zero
emissions is achieved
Mt of CO2 released
before before reaching
zero
Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level
Year by when 6,000 Mt
carbon budget is exhausted
5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028
10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029
15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030
20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033
25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a
50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a
CANADA’S CHOICES
Canada’s Annual CO2 Reduction
25Mt of CO2
25
4932°C6,000
2015 Global Carbon Budget Gt
2015 Canada Carbon Budget Mt Canada Annual Reduction Mt
Increased warming
2015
ZeroBy 2040
The2040
Imperative
Starting today
Starting 2020
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Every year25 Mt CO2 reduction
Fossil fuels imported
Fossil fuels extracted
An Annual Fossil Fuel Permits Auction
Each year, 25 Mt CO2 fewer permits
Carbon rationing, for individuals and businesses
The Race to Zero
= The Race to a Clean Green Economy
ELECTRICITYA Federal Clean Energy Plan
that helps the provinces to close down all coal-fired power plants by 2025 and all gas-fired power plants by 2040, and…
ELECTRICITYA Federal Clean Energy Plan
to ramp up conservation, renewables and power storage to take their place, including geothermal for base-load power.
More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.
1977: $77
1997: $7
2013: $0.7
Price of Solar Module
per Watt
100 GW in 2012
Solar PV 140-fold increase since 2000
200 GWin 2014
TRANSPORTATION1. An organized plan to shift all modes of transport
to 100% renewable energy by 2040
2. Municipal and regional goals for increased walking, cycling, carsharing, transit and rail.
3. Provincial and national goals and incentives for EV uptake.
4. The electrification of all of Canada’s railways.
5. The transformation of long-distance freight.
www.bcsea.org
The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries
The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries
2018
The falling emissions from Europe’s carsGrams of CO2 per kilometre
Falling emissions from Europe’s carsGrams of CO2 per kilometre
2030 Target
0 g/km
100% of new cars and lights trucks electric by 2030
= almost all vehicles by 2040
BUILDINGSZero emissions from all new buildings starting in 2020.
Zero emissions from existing buildings by 2040 through a nationwide program to retrofit every building for greater
energy saving and renewable energy for heat.
INDUSTRYA major drive to help companies improve their
energy efficiency, and replace the use of coal and gas with biomass or hydrogen.
ALBERTA’S OIL SANDSFactor zero by 2040 into all NEB decisions.
Freeze production at current level.Deny licenses for all new pipelines.
Close down the last oil sands operation by 2040.Firm up requirements for boreal forest restoration.
THE ECONOMY (1)Eliminate all subsidies and tax breaks for fossil fuels.
Divest all public funds from fossil fuels.Put an annually increasing price on carbon.
Invest the resulting funds in climate solutions.Support the green economy with tax incentives.
THE ECONOMY (2)Create new jobs by applying entrepreneurial skill to R&D,
innovation, business start-up, cooperative economic development and other initiatives. Bring in public banking,
basic income, work-sharing, employee share ownership, profit-sharing, tax reform, a financial transactions tax,
and closure of the world’s tax havens.
The transition from a capitalist economy to a green, entrepreneurial cooperative economy
could be one of the defining achievements of the 21st century.
Canada, population 35 million
500
6.6 73,000 26,000
Canada-wide1.75
A very approximate sense of Canada’s gain
blog.floridaenergycenter.org
10,000 lives could be saved and 76,600 job opportunities created if people in major European cities cycled
as much as they do in Copenhagen. World Health Organization, 2014
655,000 people work in cycling in the EU, most in cycle tourism. If cycling’s modal share were doubled, more
than 400,000 new jobs could be created. Cycling has a higher employment intensity per million of
turnover than other transport sectors.
The power
of our visionmust be stronger than
the power of our fears
Think of the Age of Fossil Fuels as the
LAUNCH RAMPfor the Solar Age
30,000 yearsFirewood
300 yearsFossil FuelsScience
EngineeringEnlightenment
Two billion yearsSolar Energy
A billion years
The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
is 100,000 periods of 10,000 years
A billion years
The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.
and with every passing year, our solar technology will improve
and fall in price.
Guy Dauncey 2015 www.earthfuture.com
www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey
Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.co
m
Guy Dauncey
www.earthfuture.com
Together, we can change the worldIf you feel inspired, join the BCSEA
www.bcsea.org/join
