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The Curious Absence of The Curious Absence of New Nuclear New Nuclear
Michael Hoeger Presented 02/06/2012
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OutlineOutline• Brief Review of Nuclear Energy• Current Public Opinions • Past Nuclear Accidents• Comparison to Coal• Media and Popular Culture • Economics • Question and Answer Session
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Fission OverviewFission Overview
Neutron is Absorbed by 235U
The 235U atom briefly becomes 236U
The 236U Atom Decays into lighter Atoms, Releases Energy, and 3 Neutrons
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Sustaining the ReactionSustaining the Reaction
Uranium 235 Atom Absorbs Neutron
Neutrons Collide with 235U, 238U, or Nothing
Neutron Collision with 235U Produces more Neutrons Continuing the Chain
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How do Most Commercial Nuclear How do Most Commercial Nuclear Reactors Work?Reactors Work?
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Simplified View of a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR)
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Public OpinionPublic OpinionNovember 11, 2011November 11, 2011
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Renewing Licenses and Renewing Licenses and Allowing New Construction Allowing New Construction
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Most Support Investment in Most Support Investment in Low-Carbon TechnologiesLow-Carbon Technologies
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Why did the Last Why did the Last Groundbreaking for a Groundbreaking for a Nuclear Plant Occur Nuclear Plant Occur
in in 19741974 ? ?
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Two Classical ArgumentsTwo Classical Arguments
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Core Damage FrequencyCore Damage Frequency• Likelihood of an accident that causes damage
to a reactor core• Estimated that a core will be damaged in the
United States once every 50,000 reactor years• Globally there are 582 reactors totaling
14,400 reactor years, with a core damage frequency of 1,400 years
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Core Damage FrequencyCore Damage Frequency• Clearly reactors are damaged at a rate much
higher than anticipated• However, how many of these incidences were
severe and what was the damage
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Three Mile IslandThree Mile Island
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• No immediate deaths• Average exposure of 8 mrems• No person exposed to greater
than 100 mrems
• A chest X-ray is equivalent to 8 mrems• Each person is exposed to 310 mrems annually from natural
background radiation
For ComparisonFor Comparison
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ChernobylChernobyl
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• Around 31 immediate deaths• TORCH Report concluded 30,000 to
60,000 premature cancer deaths• Worst nuclear disaster of all time• Highest dose rates around 3000 mrems
per hour near the core
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Fukushima Fukushima
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• No immediate deaths• Projected increase in cancer
mortality rate to increase .001% total of 100 to 1000 Deaths
• The tsunami caused up to 16,000 to 20,000 Deaths
• 92.5% Drowned (12,143)• 1.1% Burned (148)• 4.4% Crushed or Fatal Injuries (578)
Relative to TsunamiRelative to Tsunami
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Normal Operating Radiation Normal Operating Radiation LevelsLevels
• The average person is exposed to 13 mrems living within a 50 mile radius of a nuclear plant
• The average person is exposed to 23 to 1.2 mrems living within the same radius equivalent size coal fired plant
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Spent Fuel PoolsSpent Fuel Pools• Spent fuel rods are kept on site pools until
permanent geological disposal site is created • The pools help cool the rods from decay heat
and prevent criticality
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• Fuel may be stored in pool for 1-10 years before dry storage
• 1% of the original mass is converted to Plutonium
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Media and Popular Culture Media and Popular Culture [4]
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Media and Popular Culture Media and Popular Culture
• Do those who disfavor nuclear energy have risk-averse behavior
• Does the media increase our perception of risk
• Are news stories sensationalized to gain the attention of viewers
Nuclear Energy is an order of magnitude safer than coalNuclear Energy is an order of magnitude safer than coal
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Capacity by Energy SourceCapacity by Energy Source
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Generation by SourceGeneration by Source
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Production CostsProduction Costs
Coal 3.06Natural Gas 4.82Nuclear 2.14
Cents per Kwh in 2010
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U.S. Electricity Production Cost U.S. Electricity Production Cost 1995-2010, In Cents per Kwh 1995-2010, In Cents per Kwh
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Financing New PlantsFinancing New Plants• Upfront costs are high and investors do not
want to wait years for returns• Florida Power & Light expects a cost of $5400
per Kwh installed • Once new construction begins it is expected
that cost will drop per Kwh installed
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Decommissioning CostsDecommissioning Costs• Total Cost per Plant $300-500 million – Radiological $300 million – Used Fuel $100-150 million– Restoration $50 million
• Total Cost of Fleet Decommissioning $31.9 billion– 2/3 of the decommissioning cost is already funded– The remaining cost will be funded over the next 20
years if the average plant is licensed for 40 years
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Permanente StoragePermanente Storage• For every 1000kg fuel used at a nuclear power
plant over 999kg of fuel waste is created• 2,000-2,300 metric tons of waste are created
each year• Over 65,000 metric tons have been created
since the start of the industry • There is no large permanent high-level waste
site in the U.S.
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ResourcesResources• 1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Nuclear_fission.svg • 2 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fission_chain_reaction.svg• 3 http://www.daviddarling.info/images/boiling-water_reactor.gif• 4 http://ia.media-imdb.com/images/M/MV5BMTY5NjU3MjIwOF5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTYwMDMxNDY5._V1._SY317_CR3,0,214,317_.jpg• 5 http://www.infrastructurist.com/wp-content/uploads/simpsons-radioactive.jpg• 6 http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iqs4fhVntXzSFcbAIBZ5hCvqzQCQ?docId=CNG.5fa661bb3a769ff2c8863ffeda85dc34.701• 7 http://www.nei.org/resourcesandstats/documentlibrary/publications/perspectiveonpublicopinion/perspective-on-public-opinion-november-2011/• 8 http://www.energypolicyblog.com/2011/04/27/reassessing-the-frequency-of-partial-core-melt-accidents/• 9 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Three_Mile_Island_nuclear_power_plant.jpg• 10 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Chernobyl_Disaster.jpg• 11 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fukushima_I_by_Digital_Globe.jpg• 12 http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20110421a5.html• 13 http://www.jstor.org.ezproxy.library.wisc.edu/stable/1747827?seq=4• 14 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121432182593500119.html• 15 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fuel_pool.jpg• 16 http://www.ieahydro.org/reports/ST3-020613b.pdf• 17 http://fora.tv/2011/05/03/Bill_Gates_Energy_Innovation• 18 http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epm/table1_1.html• 19 http://www.nei.org/resourcesandstats/documentlibrary/reliableandaffordableenergy/graphicsandcharts/uselectricityproductioncostsandcomponents/• 20 http://www.nei.org/resourcesandstats/documentlibrary/reliableandaffordableenergy/graphicsandcharts/uselectricityproductioncosts/• 21 http://www.nei.org/resourcesandstats/nuclear_statistics/costs/• 22 http://web.mit.edu/ceepr/www/publications/workingpapers/2009-004.pdf• 23 http://www.nrc.gov/waste/hlw-disposal.html• 24 http://www.epa.gov/rpdweb00/yucca/
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Questions & DiscussionQuestions & Discussion