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The End of the Transition Paradigm
Thomas Carothers, 2002
Presented by:
Salwa Tobbala April 19, 2010
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1) Southern Europe in the mid-1970s: fall of right-wing authoritarian regimes
2) Latin America from the late 1970s -late 1980s: replacement of military dictatorships by elected civilian governments
3) East and South Asia mid-1980s: decline of authoritarian rule in parts of
4) Eastern Europe end of the 1980s: collapse of communist regimes
5) Soviet Union 1991: breakup and establishment of 15 post-Soviet republics
6) Sub-Saharan Africa first half of the 1990s: decline of one-party regimes in many parts of
7) Some Middle Eastern countries 1990s: weak but recognizable liberalizing trend
20th Century Third Wave of Democracy
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1. In Transition toward Democracy2. Democratization in Sequence: Opening –
Breakthrough – Consolidation3. Importance of Elections4. No pre-conditions5. Democracy building and state-building
5 Core AssumptionsTransition Paradigm
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Feckless Pluralism Syndrome
Dominant Power Politics Syndrome
General Characteristics:•Political Freedom•Regular Elections•Alternation of Power
-Elections trade country’s problems from one helpless side to another-State is Weak, corrupt, and elite-dominated-Poor service delivery
(Latin America)
General Characteristics:•One Party Rule•Election show•Hopes of Alteration of Power
-Blurring line between state resources and ruling party-Large scale of corruption-Citizen cut from significant political participation-Hopes resides in donor funded CSOs(Middle East, Former Soviet Union)
Gray ZoneDictatorship
Liberal Democracy
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Discard the transition paradigm’s five assumptions Social Economic Development beside democracy-
building Country-specific patterns of political life:
How to move forward?
Feckless Pluralism Dominant Power System
• Political Party Development
• New entrants of Political Parties
• Strong connection between CSOs and Political Parties
• Political Party development, specially how they are financed
• Differentiate between state and ruling party
• Diverse centers of economic power
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Starts with a dream…. Fulfilled with persistence & hard work