The Future of MobilityImpacts of Evolving Vehicle Technology Transitions on Suppliers
January 21, 2020
Daron GiffordPartner, Plante Moran
About Plante Moran
2
95Years serving
clients(founded in
1924)
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Mobility
Intelligence
CenterResearch on
Critical Information for Mobility
Technologies to OEMs, Suppliers and New Entrants
Case Study: Disruptive Technology
3
4
2 Mobility – “sharing”
1 Autonomous
3 Electrification
4 Manufacturing the Vehicle
Where is the Automotive Industry Going? Integration of Technologies will Drive Mobility Futures
5
Mobility DriversEconomics Change the Transportation Business Model
Shared MobilityPrivate Vehicle Ownership
Today Future
New “Mobility”
Business Model
1. Extended Vehicle Life:
• Enabled by enhanced engineering,
advanced materials and manufacturing
• Metric – kilometers traveled
2. Vehicle Uptime (Availability):
• Enabled by rigorous preventative
maintenance discipline
• Metric – % availability (uptime)
3. Vehicle Utilization:
• Enabled by matching riders with
vehicles – right place, right time
• Metric – % of day vehicle is utilized
Vehicle Price Asset Efficiency
Buying Vehicles Buying Miles
6
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050
Veh
icle
Miles
Tra
vele
d (
Billio
ns)
Private - Autonomous Shared - AutonomousNon Autonomous
Vehicle Type Key
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050
Veh
icle
Parc
(M
illio
ns)
-
5
10
15
20
25
2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2047 2050
Veh
icle
Sale
s (M
illio
ns)
Vehicle Miles Traveled Vehicles in Operation (VIO)
Annual New Vehicle Sales
Autonomous + MobilityProjections for U.S.Personal miles traveled drives volumes• Testing and prototyping environments are still growing rapidly – over 1,400 vehicles by 80+ companies in 36
states
• Lack of national policy is slowing progress for now, but private sector is pushing forward
7
Future Mobility Business ModelDramatic Reordering of the Automotive Value Chain
Manufacturing, MaaS, Mobility Operations and Energy Management will all be required
to enable the future mobility industry, as well as to be tightly integrated
Vehicle Manufacturing “Value Chain”(including Engineering)
MaaS and Mobility Operations
Ownership
& Financing
Vehicle
Owners• Fleets
• Private
• Fractional
Financing• Loans
• Leases
• Subscription
• Pay per mile
Insurance• Personal
• Vehicle
• Ride
Mobility Services Provider• Pay per ride/sharing
• Freight/package service
• Specialized mobility services
• Mobility technology broker/interface
Connectivity• V2V communications
• Telecommunications access
• Vehicle data – OTA updates, monitoring
• In-vehicle infotainment services
Mobility Operations Services• Vehicle maintenance and repair
• Vehicle staging – cleaning, charging,
storage
• Vehicle roadside assistance
• Passenger biometrics support
Mobility Infrastructure• Parking location, availability, price
• Traffic flow, route optimization
• Vehicle to infrastructure (SmartCity)
Energy
Manageme
nt
• Battery pack/
cell production
and raw
materials
• Battery
financing
• Charging
infrastructure
manufacturing
and installation
• Energy storage
and discharge:
• V2G
• 2nd use
batteries
• Battery
recycling
Key Vehicle Manufacturing Characteristics
• Utilitarian styled vehicles
• Common platform architectures
• Modular design for component replacement
• High volume production for cost efficiencies
• Electrified powertrains
• Autonomous capability
• Connected technology
Powertrain –
ICE and EVChassis Interiors Exteriors
Electronics &
AutonomousOther
Systems/components
8
Business Opportunities in MobilityFuture Revenue Streams
MaaS, Mobility Operations, Energy Management, and Manufacturing will increase enormously from
transportation shifts in autonomy, mobility, electrification and manufacturing of vehicles
$-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Reven
ue (
$B
)
MaaS
(Operating, Ownership, Financing, Data)
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Reven
ue (
$B
)
Mobility Operations
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Reven
ue (
$B
)
Energy
Management
Manufacturing
(including engineering)
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047
Reven
ue (
$B
)
9
By 2050, disruptive changes in the industry will drive significant shifts in how transportation is consumed
New Vehicle
Sales
$610B
Used Vehicle
Sales
$685B
Gas/Diesel/
Electricity
$254B
Insurance
$234B
Financing
$120B
Repair/
Maintenance
$72B
Public Transit/
Car Rental/Taxi
$119B
Mobility as a
Service (MaaS)*
$27B
Other
$271B
2017
$2.4
Trillion
New Vehicle
Sales
$625B
Used Vehicle
Sales
$679B
Gas/Diesel/
Electricity
$209B
Insurance
$253B
Financing
$119B
Repair/
Maintenance
$79B
Public Transit/
Car Rental/Taxi
$117B
Mobility as a
Service (MaaS)*
$176B
Other
$255B
2027
$2.5
Trillion
Minimal Change
New Vehicle
Sales
$867B
Used Vehicle
Sales
$165B
Gas/Diesel/
Electricity
$189B
Insurance
$173B
Financing
$153B
Repair/
Maintenance
$233B
Public Transit/
Car Rental/Taxi
$17B
Mobility as a
Service (MaaS)*
$3.4T
Other
$590B
2050
$5.7
Trillion
Large Growth
Shifts
*Mobility as a Service (MaaS) – only includes transportation revenue miles. Other mobility revenue streams included in Other.
Transportation Spending – U.S. ProjectionsRadical Redistributions in the Mobility Business Model Revenue
10
Transportation MaaS Spending IncreasesDriven by Personal Consumption and Commercial Use
Mobility as a Service (MaaS) to experiences Massive GrowthAutonomy allows personal transportation to shift from private vehicle ownership to “buying
kilometers” for travel, in highly utilized shared fleet vehicles of multiple configurations (1-10+
passengers)
2017 2050
2017 2050
2017 2050
2017 2050
1% of Spend63% of
Spend
$610B
$867B
$685B
$165B
$72B
$233BRepair and Maintenance Cost IncreasesScheduled preventative maintenance will be required to support high vehicle utilization and service,
increased vehicle life longevity and expedited repairs
New Vehicle Sales and Production IncreaseHigher vehicle utilization accelerates vehicle life span, increasing vehicle turnover and resulting in
shorter replacement cycles of 3-4 years
Used Vehicle Sales DecreaseShared fleet vehicles are driven to the end of maximum useful life, then retired from operation;
eliminating much of the secondary market for resale
$27B $3.4T
11
Vehicle Technology - Electrification
Evolution of the Powertrain
• Converging disruptions (autonomy, sharing and powertrain efficiency) will increase the pace
of adoption of electrification
• Powertrain components will transition to EV specific technology over time, eliminating the
need for ICE products throughout the vehicle
Onboard charging
moduleDC/DC converter
Inverter
Traction motor
Battery
packFuel system
Air intake systemExhaust
system
Transmission
ICE Powertrain Components EV Powertrain Components
Market ShiftsInternal
combustion
engineTurbocharge
r
Gearbox
12
21.4 21.0
13.3
3.3
0.1 0.2
0.7
1.4
0.3 0.7
2.6
5.1
0.6 1.4
7.6 15.2
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2020 2025 2030 2035
Mill
ion
s
BEV / BEV Rex PHEV/HEV 48v PHEV/HEV 400V ICE
24.5 25.0
18.7
5.3
0.1 0.1
0.6
1.1
0.6 0.9
4.2
8.1
1.5 2.6 8.9
20.5
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2020 2025 2030 2035
Mill
ion
s
BEV / BEV Rex PHEV/HEV 48v PHEV/HEV 400V ICE
15.8 15.3 14.6 13.2
- 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.7 1.2 2.2 3.6
0.4 0.8 1.3 3.5
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2020 2025 2030 2035
Mill
ion
s
BEV / BEV Rex PHEV/HEV 48v PHEV/HEV 400V ICE
26.9 28.0 27.6 26.1
1.0 0.9 1.3 2.0 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.9 0.2 0.3 1.1
2.4
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
2020 2025 2030 2035
Mill
ion
s
BEV / BEV Rex PHEV/HEV 48v PHEV/HEV 400V Nissan E-Power/Note ICE
China Production Volumes Europe Production Volumes
North America Production Volumes
Source: Plante Moran/AFS
ROW Production Volumes
(includes Japan, Korea)
Electrified Vehicle Production – by RegionChina and Europe lead the way
19%
19%
2020-2035
CAGR
BEV/ BEV Rex
PHEV/HEV 48V
PHEV/HEV 400V
17%
-10%
ICE
26.7M28.6M
32.4M
35M
25%
17%
2020-2035
CAGR
BEV/ BEV Rex
PHEV/HEV 48V
PHEV/HEV 400V
24%
-12%
ICE
22.5M 23.3M 24.1M 25M
16.9M 17.3M 18.1M 20.3M15%
12%
2020-2035
CAGR
BEV/ BEV Rex
PHEV/HEV 48V
PHEV/HEV 400V
1%
-1%
ICE
29M 30.2M 31.4M 32.4M
19%
5%
2020-2035
CAGR
BEV/ BEV Rex
PHEV/HEV 48V
PHEV/HEV 400V
5%
-0.2%
ICE
-0.2%Nissan E-Power/Note
Evolution of the Automobile Chassis
Changing Requirements to be Common, Modular
Skateboard
Skateboard
Skateboard
Pickup Application
SUV Application
Shuttle Bus Application
Electric Vehicle Skateboard ChassisICE Chassis
• Vehicle differentiation requirements for end customers decline
• Utilitarian applications provide broader, common customer experience through autonomous,
shared, electrified vehicles
Variable Skateboard
Applications
14
Evolution of the Interior Space
Shifting Expectations of the User Experience
• Interior focus still in the cockpit, but with more technology available
• Interior physical features highly streamlined
• Interior design is used to differentiate their vehicles in the market
2025 and Beyond“Autonomous and Shared”
2020 – 2025“Personalized and Connected”
2015 – 2020Current Interiors
2000 – 2015Traditional Interior of the Past
• Interior is the “3rd living space”
• Interior maximizes user enjoyment and satisfaction through their experiences inside – air, light, touch
2008 Chevrolet Trailblazer SS 2018 Chevrolet Equinox Mercedes-Benz F 015 Luxury in Motion Concept2018 Tesla Model 3 Featuring Next Gen Design / Technology
• Cockpit focus to layout of the interior
Evolution of the ExteriorDesign Changes Resulting from Mobility
Mercedes Benz Concept
Navya Autonomous Cab
SMART Pod Concept
Autonomous, shared, electrified vehicles will be more “utilitarian”
Utilitarian Design for Functionality
• Vehicle ownership will transfer from personal owners to fleet owners
and exterior differentiation could be less of a factor in vehicle
designs
• Emphasis will be on “interior” differentiation
• 3rd Living Space (home, work, vehicle)
Size Variations
• Vehicles transporting “one individual” could be smaller
• Multi-individual vehicles could be larger
Mixed Materials
• Increased safety resulting from Autonomy drives fewer collisions and
more safety
• Exterior materials shift to a variety of materials, including carbon
fiber and composite plastics - frequency of collisions dramatically
decreases
Today
Current State
Transportation
Model Vehicles produced
Value
Proposition to
Customer
Customers
Product
Design
Research
Development &
Engineering
Manufacturing
Future
Miles driven
Private owners “MaaS” fleet operators
Differentiated, personalized
products, Commodity product, convenience,
availability
Platform architectures requiring major
redesigns in 7-8 year development cycleSkateboard platforms requiring refresh
designs in 2-3 year development cycles
OEMs internal RD&E is duplicative and
costly; viewed as a market differentiator
OEMs depend on RD&E for innovation
with proven, capable suppliers
Manufacturing is core competency with
OEM control of end-to-end processes
OEMs focus on mobility and customer
experience. More responsibility of vehicle
manufacturing shifts to suppliers
Evolution of Manufacturing Business ModelManufacturing and Supply Relationships will Radically Change
16
17
“Create Strategic Vision”
Plante Moran’s Structured Approach to Strategic Planning
“Plan and Implement”
Transitioning for TechnologyStrategies for Meeting the Mobility Future
Contact Information
Daron Gifford
Partner
Strategy and Automotive Industry Consulting Leader
+1 248-223-3709
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