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The Need for an Accelerated Protein Transition
Protein2Food MeetingJan 29th 2020
Charles GodfrayOxford Martin School
University of Oxford
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• Food system challenges?
• Can we feed the world within
“planetary boundaries”
• Alternative proteins
This talk
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The three waves of Malthusian pessimism
• 1790s; Malthus Essay on the Principle of
Population
• Industrial Revolution
• 1960’s & 70’s; Limits to Growth, Population Bomb
• Green Revolution
• From 2008; The Perfect Storm
• ??
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UN Population Division, World Population Prospects, 2015 Revision
Billionpeople
Estimate with95 & 80%confidencelimits
ForecastData
Future population growth(medium fecundity assumption)
Now
2050
2100
23% chanceof peakbefore 2100
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Alexandratos, N. & Bruinsma, J. World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050. FAO, 2012.
Current regional and projected global meat consumption
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Coming challenge
• Continuing demand growth
• Urbanisation & mega-cities
• Hunger & under-nutrition +
Obesity & over-nutrition
• Pressures on agriculture
• Water scarcity
• Competition for land and soil degradation
• More frequent shocks
• Climate change
• Geopolitical
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Can we feed the worldwithin planetary
boundaries?
• Planetary boundaries & the Lancet
Commission
• What food types challenge boundaries?
• What sets of solution maintain safe
operating space?
Nature (2018): 562, 519
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Cropmodel
Water usemodel
Economicmodel
Healthoutcomes
Environ.outcomes
Economicconsequences
Emissionscenarios
Climate models
Populationscenarios
Socioecon.scenariosDiets
Modelling StrategyLed by Marco Springmann (Ox)
Oxford & International Food Policy
Research Institute, DC
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Planetary boundaries
Johan
Rockström
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Percentage contributions of different sectors to total agricultural greenhouse emissions
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Meat alternatives
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Marco Springmann & Report for World Economic Forum
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100604020Now 80
Cooling
effect
Years into the future
CO2
Methane
• Calculation: John Lynch
Cooling consequence of not emitting different greenhouse gasses now
• Reducing methane critical to meeting
targets in next few decades
• Don’t trade-off CO2 for methane
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Warming impact for perpetual consumption at high rates (250 Mt per year) for beef cattle and cultured meat production systems
Lynch & Pierrehumbert Front. Sustain. Food Syst. 2019
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High Sodium
High red meat
Low milk
High processed meat
Global Burden of
Disease Study 2019
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Tong et al European Heart Journal 2019
Analysis of diet and stroke in 418,239 people in EPIC cohort
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Alex Sexton and Report for World Economic Forum
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Alex Sexton and Report for World Economic Forum
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The three waves of Malthusian pessimism
• 1790s; Malthus Essay on the Principle of
Population
• Industrial Revolution
• 1960’s & 70’s; Limits to Growth, Population Bomb
• Green Revolution
• From 2008; The Perfect Storm
• Double-green Supply+Demand Side Revolution