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The Netherlands in a Sustainable World
Poverty, Climate and Biodiversity
Second Sustainabilty Outlook
Aldert Hanemaaijer, projectleader
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Approach First
Sustanability Outlook
4 ‘policy rich’ scenario’s
(based on different
worldviews and values)
• Anything is possible
• Goals were implicit
• Risk of cherry picking
• Difficult to give robust options
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Approach Second Sustanability Outlook
• 1 Baseline Scenario (OECD)– No additional policy, like EU Climate Policy
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Approach Second Sustanability Outlook
• 1 Baseline Scenario (OECD)– No additional policy, like EU Climate Policy
• Existing goals – MDG’s: half poverty– EU 2 degrees climate– CBD: signifcantly reduce biodiversity loss
• Policy challenge = goal - trend
• Options to realise goals
• Worldviews to make options robust
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Assumptions Baseline Scenario
• Looking 35 years back and forward from 2005
• Almost 9 billion people in 2040
• World GDP tripples; GDP doubles per head
• Energy use + 75%; GHG almost + 50%
• Agricultural productivity + 40%
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The world is not enough
For simultaneously:
Foodsupply
Biofuels
Biodiversity conservation
Climate Change
Biodiversity loss
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Reasons for not realising the goals
• For biodiversity and climate change T < P * C
Population x Consumption Technology
• One-sided emphasis in the short term
• Partial solutions
• Inadequate international cooperation
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Mankind develops …
Africa
lags
behind
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… at the expense of biodiversity
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Human development has an ecological price
Further loss of biodiversity is inevitable
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MDG’s will not be reached in time
Africa and
South Asia
lag behind
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Stimulating devlopment in poorest countries
• Investing in broad infrastructure
Education, health care, roads, energy, water, sanitation, etc.
• Abolish agricultural subsidies and phased opening of
markets in the poorest developing countries
• Combining ODA funds to prevent fragmentation
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Climate requires strong international coalition
By broadening the EU trading system
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Biofuels put tropical nature and food supply under additional pressure
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There’s more then biofuels
• Lowering current EU ambitions for 2020
• Biofuels versus energy from biomass
• Other options for transport: more efficient engines and second generation cars
• How to get second generation biofuels in a liberalising global market, not competing with food production (in less productive areas)?
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If the world would consume as the Dutch in 2040, all natural forests and grasslands will be gone
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Reduce biodiversity loss
• Raise agricultural production in developing countries
• Influence people’s diet (meat)
• Sustainable production changes via companies
• Targeted protection of and paying for (tropical) nature
IPCC for biodiversity Biodiversity for development
ecosystem goods and services
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No sustainable development without Europe
• Right scale to work on international coalition
• Emission trading and level playing field for companies
What is needed for SD on EU level? What is needed for SD on EU level?
• Broaden EU competences
– To integrate policies for development, climate, biodiversity,
trade, energy and agriculture
• Adjustment of decision making procedures
– Unanimity at discussion
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Dutch citizens: “Government should take care”
• Solve the social dilemma– Support and willingness to pay for climate in NL and EU
• Products should be ‘OK’– Sustainable consumption also asks for active role government
• Pricing and EU regulation needed– Pricing in rich countries has less effect
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Realising goals and human ambitions
• Fysical limits to realising all the global goals
• Big ambitions in a small world: what is possible?
• Will technolgy be enough? Also change in lifestyle!
– ‘Fat ego’ debate in NL on the question if everybody should be able to buy a SUV and a jaccuzi in the garden
– Influencing behavior with pricing, sustainable chains or taking away ‘bad’ choices by regulation
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Coherent international policy
Willingness to pay
Key role for Europe
Leading government
Technology + lifestyle
Summary
What is needed?
Nederland en een duurzame wereld