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Production systems for the future: balancing trade-offs between food production,
efficiency, livelihoods and the environment
M. Herrero and P.K. Thornton
WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation
21st September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi
The production and consumption of livestock products in developing countries:
Issues facing the world's poor
Nancy Johnson, Jimmy Smith, Mario Herrero, Shirley Tarawali, Susan MacMillan, Delia Grace
Farm Animal Integrated Research 2012 ConferenceWashington DC, March 4–6, 2012
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Overview
Global poverty and undernutrition Consumption and production of livestock
products: – trends – drivers – future projections
Challenges aheadOpportunities for the poor
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Main messages The rising demand for livestock products in
developing countries presents significant opportunities and threats
Choices about how to manage the global livestock sector have to be context specific.
Institutional innovation as important as technological innovation in charting the best ways forward.
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Poverty and undernutrition
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Changes in global poverty indicators
% of population living on less than $1.25/day– 1990 - 41.7%– 2005 - 25.2%
Millions of people living on less than $1.25/day – 1990 - 1,818 – 2005 - 1,374
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/
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Percent of population living on less than US$1.25/day - 1990
Dark red: >80Red: 60-80Orange: 40-60Light orange: 20-40Yellow: <20Grey: no data
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/
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Dark red: >80Red: 60-80Orange: 40-60Light orange: 20-40Yellow: <20Grey: no data
Percent of population living on less than US$1.25/day - 2000
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/
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Dark red: >80Red: 60-80Orange: 40-60Light orange: 20-40Yellow: <20Grey: no data
Percent of population living on less than US$1.25/day - 2010
http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/
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FAO: SOFA2011
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FAO: SOFA20011
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ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward
Consumption and production of livestock products in developing countries
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ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward
Consumption and production of livestock products in developing countries
Trends
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FAO: SOFA2009
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FAO: SOFA 2009
In 1980, 65% of production was in developed countries. In 2007, 61% was in developing countries
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Agricultural production by system
9%
15%
19%
7%
50%
Beef
28%
18%21%
5%
28%
Lambagro-pastoral
mixed extensive
mixed intensive
other
developed countries
7%
13%
17%
4%
59%
Milk
Herrero et al. 2009
4%14%
35%
2%
45%
Cereals
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FAO: SOFA 2009
Growing trade in livestock commodities
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ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward
Consumption and production of livestock products in developing countries
Drivers
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Population growth by region: 1750 - 2050
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FAO: SOFA 2009
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Urbanization
Source: Economist
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ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward
Consumption and production of livestock products in developing countries
Future projections
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Projected global consumption in 2050
Annual per capita consumption
Total consumption
Year Meat (kg)
Milk (kg)
Meat (Mt)
Milk (Mt)
Developing 20022050
2844
4478
137326
222585
Developed 20022050
7894
202216
102126
265295
Source: Rosegrant et al 2009
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Projected global consumption in 2050
Annual per capita consumption
Total consumption
Year Meat (kg)
Milk (kg)
Meat (Mt)
Milk (Mt)
Developing 20022050
2844
4478
137326
222585
Developed 20022050
7894
202216
102126
265295
Source: Rosegrant et al 2009
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Projected global consumption in 2050
Annual per capita consumption
Total consumption
Year Meat (kg)
Milk (kg)
Meat (Mt)
Milk (Mt)
Developing 20022050
2844
4478
137326
222585
Developed 20022050
7894
202216
102126
265295
Source: Rosegrant et al 2009
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The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009)
Grains1048 million tonnes
more to 2050
Livestock430 million MT(Monogastrics mostly)
biofuels160 million MT
Humanconsumption
458 million MT
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Annual changes in Cereal Production2000 - 2030
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
%
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Herrero et al 2009
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Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
%
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030
0123456789
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
%
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
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28
Challenges ahead
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Challenges ahead
Disease
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Livestock and human disease
15 key zoonotic diseases reported on HealthMap (2006-2011) (Grace et al., 2011)
Animal source foods are the biggest contributor to food-borne disease
Diseases transmitted from livestock & by livestock products kill more people each year than HIV or malaria
One new human disease emerges every 2 months - 20% of these from livestock (Jones et al., 2008)
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Livestock and animal disease Animal disease can be the key constraint (ECF,
tryps, Newcastle disease) – Remove it and animal populations double
Increasingly animal disease impacts are outside the livestock sector
Early-stage intensification associated with increased disease – Most of current growth in animal production is in
early stage
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Challenges ahead
Environment
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Use and impact of livestock production on land, water, biodiversity
Livestock production generates many negative externalities
Significant opportunities to increase efficiency in many systems—more production with fewer animals
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Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein produced
Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)
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Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
Effect of climate change on livestock production
Courtesy of A. Jarvis
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Challenges ahead
Social issues
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OverconsumptionAnimal welfareGender and equity,
especially in the face of rapid change
Conflict and transition to non-agricultural livelihoods
Emerging concerns in developing countries
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Opportunities for the poor
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Livestock demand will be met by a variety of sectors and systems
Currently a significant role for smallholders (30% of milk, 15-18% of poultry)
Highest potential in local and regional markets in developing countries
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Strengthening livestock value chains
Enabling public policy and institutions
Access to input and output markets
Uptake of new improved technology
Public and private partnerships
Attention to gender and equity
Inputs & Services
Production
Processing Marketing Consumers
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CGIAR Research Program 3.7: More meat, milk and fish by and for the poor
PIGS
AQUACULTURE
SHEEP & GOATS
DAIRY
9 Target Value Chains
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Managing risk and providing environmental services in rangelands
Potential for carbonsequestration in rangelands(Conant and Paustian 2002)
Largest land use system High levels of poverty
and food insecurity Managing risk through
livestock insurance Exploring feasibility of
environmental service schemes around wildlife conservation and/or carbon sequestration
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Some conclusions
The rising demand for livestock foods in poor countries presents– Opportunities
• Pathway out of poverty and malnutrition• Less vulnerability in drylands• Sustainable mixed systems
– Threats• Environmental degradation at local and global
scales• Greater risk of disease and poor health• Greater risk of conflict and inequity
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Key issues for decision makers– appreciation of the vast divide in livestock
production between rich and poor countries– intimate understanding of the specific local context
for specific livestock value chains– reliable evidence-based assessments of the hard
trade-offs involved in adopting any given approach to livestock development
Institutional innovations as important as technological/biological innovations in charting the best ways forward– Organization within the sector– Managing trade offs at multiple scales