The Re-Engaged Generation2004 and Beyond
Peter Levine Ivan FrishbergDeputy Director New Voters Project/CIRCLE State PIRGs www.civicyouth.org www.pirg.org
Election 2004
What Happened?
What Happened? Youth turnout was up
Youth turnout had been declining since the 1970s—down by about one third
0
20
40
60
80
100
1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
18-24s 25 and older
Source: Census, analyzed by CIRCLE
What Happened? Youth turnout was up
There are two main sets of exit polls for ’04.
Both show substantial increases in youth turnout.
For 18-24s, turnout was up either 5.3 or 10.8 points to either 42% or 48%
Census data will be available in about six months
37%42%
48%52%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
18 - 24 18 - 29
2000 2004
What Happened? Youth turnout was up
Approximately 21 million votes were cast by 18-29 year olds, and 10.5 million were cast by 18-24 year olds, both up sharply from 2000.
Greatest turnout since 1992 and probably since the mid-1970s
Based on exit polls and Census population data, analyzed by CIRCLE
What Happened? Battleground vs. non-battleground
51%
38%
64%
48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%50%
60%
70%
2004 2000
Non-Battleground Battleground
18-29s. Source: exit polls, analyzed by CIRCLE
What Happened? Women and Men
.
37% 36%
46%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2004 2000
men (18-24) women (18-24)
18-29s. Source: exit polls, analyzed by CIRCLE
What Happened? Young voters were interested in this election
85%
63%
81%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Paying Attention to the Campaign (registeredvoters 18-29)
1992 2000 2004
Source: MTV and MTV/CIRCLE polls
What happened? Young people were mobilized and mobilized others
Of college students ….
47%—and 57% of those who attend college in a battleground state—said they were contacted by a political party during the campaign62% said that they had encouraged or helped someone else to vote
Source: Niemi/Hanmer survey funded by CIRCLE)
What happened? Most college students were permitted to vote
Source: Niemi/Hanmer survey funded by CIRCLE)
did not vote
planned to vote but unable to
voted
not allowed to vote
0 20 40 60 80 100
What happened? Youth supported Kerry
56%51%
46% 48%54%
43%48%
53% 51%45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
18-24s 25-29s 30-44s All Voters 75+
Kerry Bush
Source: exit polls
What happened? Young people’s issue priorities
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
taxes education Iraq terrorism economy &jobs
moralvalues
health care
All Voters 18-24s College Students* *
Source: exit polls
What happened? Kerry/Bush vote by college major
65%62%
50% 50%46%
30%35%
46% 47%52%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Humanities SocialScience
Science &Engineering
Business Education
Kerry Bush
(current college students. Source: Niemi/Hanmer survey funded by CIRCLE)
The Re-Engaged GenerationGen X vs. Gen Y
They have different opinions than their
older brothers and sisters.
In comparing 18–29 year olds to 30–39 year olds, under 30s were:
more likely to identify as liberal by 12 points; Less likely to call themselves conservative by 7 points; favored gay marriage by 16 points; More likely to believe that “government should do more to
solve problems” by 5 points.
Election 2004
Why did it happen?
Why did it happen?This is NOT Generation X.
They are different
They voted. They paid more attention to election news than 2000. UCLA reports that youth interest in politics is on the rise for
the first time in two decades. Volunteering is up for young people. Over half volunteered
in 2002. They watch less TV They are more trusting of government and more pro-
government
Why did it happen?This is NOT Generation X.
There are more of them
They are more numerous.
They have a much stronger “generational identity”
Why did it happen?Unprecedented efforts to reach them.
Investing time and money pays off in new voters. The six largest non-partisan youth vote organizations, spent
$40 million dollars on the most comprehensive young voter mobilization campaign in history.
The Republicans employed the National College Republicans, what many consider the nation’s strongest college organizing force.
The Democrats channeled their donor dollars to 527s, including the Young Voter Alliance and 21st Century Democrats.
Overall trend to face to face grassroots contact has a greater impact on new voters.
First youth targeted ad buys by a presidential campaign.
Increased Voter Registration Among 18-24 Year Olds
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Linn Dubuque Polk Johnson
2000
2004
Iowa Case Study: 4 Counties
Increased Turnout Rate Among Registered Voters
44%40%
48%
62%
47%
64%58%
63%70%
62%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Linn* Dubuque Polk Johnson Total
Iowa Case Study: 4 Counties
Iowa Case Study: 4 Counties
18-24 Vote Totals in Four Counties
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Linn County DubuqueCounty
Polk County JohnsonCounty
Total
2000
2004
Comparing Age Groups for Two Counties With Similar Age Clusters
(Percentage Increase from 2000 to 2004)
29%
15%
33%
6%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%
18-24 Dubuque& Polk
25-34 Dubuque& Polk
RegistrationIncrease
Turnout Increase
Iowa Case Study: 4 Counties
Why did it happen?The media paid attention.
Data, research and a coordinated message were vital to changing the story.
Coverage of youth voting was up 120% compared to 2000. Coverage was more in-depth, focusing on tactics and the
research. Coverage focused on the impact of young voters and their
status as an “up for grabs” constituency. Coverage was cross-cutting – in local newspaper, in major
national newspapers, on television, and among the “chattering class.”
But it was also easy to go negative: “Youth vote a bust.”
Where do we go from here?
Interest + Attention + Infrastructure
Where do we go from here?Capitalizing on 2004
Organizers: Thousands of young people were trained as grassroots organizers.
Technology: Every youth voting effort used technology to track and communicate with the young people they registered and mobilized.
Political interest: Candidates for the two 2005 open governorships have placed college tuition affordability at the top of their election agendas.
Issue Frame: According to both USA Today and The Washington Post, the President’s social security agenda is being framed as a generational issue to build a base of youth voters.
President Bush just announced an $19.3 billion plan to increase Pell Grants.
Where do we go from here?Creating a political constituency.
Example: Seniors vote and engage on issues. In turn, politicians pay attention, targeting them in campaigns and when making policy.
Can we do the same for young people?
Issue Attention Political Engagement
Political AttentionVoting
Where do we go from here? Creating a Political Constituency
Register more young people.
Engage on issues.
Mobilize young voters in 2005 and 2006 elections.
Tell the story.