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1 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
The Role of BLS Import and Export Price Indexes in the
Real GDP
Guadalupe CerritosEconomist
International Price Program Discussion SeriesJune 24, 2016
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2 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov2 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
What is IPP? Where does IPP’s source data come from? What is so special about IPP’s indexes? How are IPP’s indexes used? What is GDP? How to deflate?
Agenda
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3 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov3 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
So, what is IPP?
The International Price Program’s (IPP) indexes measure the average change in export and import prices
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4 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov4 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
So, what is IPP?
IPP’s indexes measure the average change in export and import prices
43 years of IPP…
1973 1974 1982 1993 2016First annual
indexesFirst quarterly
indexesIndexes
declared PFEIsAll indexes monthly
>1,000 monthly indexes
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5 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Who provides prices to IPP?
Survey respondentsSecondary source data
providers
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6 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov6 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
What makes IPP’s indexes unique?
No similar statistic exists They adapt to the changing economyNew mix of itemsRevised item weights
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7 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
What agencies help IPP’s indexes adapt?
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8 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov8 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
How IPP’s indexes adapt
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9 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov9 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
How IPP’s indexes adapt (imports)
Import transaction data
Edited import transaction data
Formattedimport data
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10 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov10 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
How IPP’s indexes adapt (exports)
Export transaction data
Transaction data on imports from the U.S. (i.e.
U.S. exports to Canada)
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11 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov11 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
How are IPP’s data used?
Used byPolicy makersPrivate businessesAcademiaGovernment statistical community
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12 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov12 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
What is GDP?
Measures output of final goods and services
Net Exports
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Net Exports and GDP
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Total trade and GDP
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Deflation: why is it important?
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Deflation: why is it important?
Corn Belt
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Deflation: why is it important?
August 2012
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Deflation: why is it important?
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19 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Deflation: why is it important?
𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 𝑑𝑑𝐸𝐸𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝐸𝐸 𝑣𝑣𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣 = 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑣𝑣 × 𝑞𝑞𝑣𝑣𝑑𝑑𝑞𝑞𝐸𝐸𝑝𝑝𝐸𝐸𝑞𝑞
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20 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Deflation: why is it important?
𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 𝑑𝑑𝐸𝐸𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝐸𝐸 𝑣𝑣𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣 = 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑣𝑣 × 𝑞𝑞𝑣𝑣𝑑𝑑𝑞𝑞𝐸𝐸𝑝𝑝𝐸𝐸𝑞𝑞
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21 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Deflation: why is it important?
𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 𝑑𝑑𝐸𝐸𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝐸𝐸 𝑣𝑣𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑣𝑣𝑣𝑣 = 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑣𝑣 × 𝑞𝑞𝑣𝑣𝑑𝑑𝑞𝑞𝐸𝐸𝑝𝑝𝐸𝐸𝑞𝑞
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22 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov22 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Deflation: how to do it
1. Start with the nominal series
Corn exports, January-December 2012
Month
Nominal Corn Exports($ millions)
Jan 1,081Feb 1,054Mar 1,094Apr 1,086May 1,044Jun 926Jul 809Aug 733Sep 902Oct 667Nov 584Dec 558
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23 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov23 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Deflation: how to do it
1. Start with the nominal series
2. Take the price index and rebase it
Corn exports, January-December 2012
Month
Nominal Corn Exports($ millions)
Price Index
Rebased Price Index
Jan 1,081 295.0 100.0Feb 1,054 294.1 99.7Mar 1,094 301.6 102.2Apr 1,086 302.7 102.6May 1,044 302.4 102.5Jun 926 277.1 93.9Jul 809 330.4 112.0Aug 733 367.1 124.4Sep 902 359.7 121.9Oct 667 349.7 118.5Nov 584 346.1 117.3Dec 558 351.9 119.3
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24 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov24 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Deflation: how to do it
1. Start with the nominal series
2. Take the price index and rebase it
3. 𝑅𝑅𝑣𝑣𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 =𝑁𝑁𝐸𝐸𝑁𝑁𝑝𝑝𝑞𝑞𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
𝑅𝑅𝑣𝑣𝑅𝑅𝑑𝑑𝑅𝑅𝑣𝑣𝑑𝑑 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑣𝑣 𝑝𝑝𝑞𝑞𝑑𝑑𝑣𝑣𝐸𝐸× 100
Corn exports, January-December 2012
Month
Nominal Corn Exports($ millions)
Price Index
Rebased Price Index
Real Corn Exports ($ millions)
Jan 1,081 295.0 100.0 1,081Feb 1,054 294.1 99.7 1,058Mar 1,094 301.6 102.2 1,070Apr 1,086 302.7 102.6 1,059May 1,044 302.4 102.5 1,019Jun 926 277.1 93.9 985Jul 809 330.4 112.0 722Aug 733 367.1 124.4 589Sep 902 359.7 121.9 740Oct 667 349.7 118.5 563Nov 584 346.1 117.3 498Dec 558 351.9 119.3 468
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25 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Deflation: GDP and IPP, Example 1
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26 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Deflation: GDP and IPP, Example 1
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27 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Deflation: GDP and IPP, Example 1
𝑅𝑅𝑣𝑣𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 =𝑁𝑁𝐸𝐸𝑁𝑁𝑝𝑝𝑞𝑞𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
𝑅𝑅𝑣𝑣𝑅𝑅𝑑𝑑𝑅𝑅𝑣𝑣𝑑𝑑 𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑝𝑣𝑣 𝑝𝑝𝑞𝑞𝑑𝑑𝑣𝑣𝐸𝐸× 100
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28 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Deflation: GDP and IPP, Example 1
𝑅𝑅𝑣𝑣𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 =146.6
127.869× 100 = 114.6
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29 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Deflation: GDP and IPP, Example 1
𝑅𝑅𝑣𝑣𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 =146.6
127.869× 100 = 114.6
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Deflation: GDP and IPP, Example 2
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Deflation: GDP and IPP, Example 2
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Deflation: GDP and IPP, Example 2
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Deflation: GDP and IPP, Example 2
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Deflation: GDP and IPP, Example 2
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Deflation: GDP and IPP, Example 2
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Deflation: GDP and IPP, Example 2
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Deflation: GDP and IPP, Example 2NIPA table
4.2.4.
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Conclusion
What have we learned today? What to take away?
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39 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Questions…
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Contact Information
40 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov
Guadalupe CerritosEconomist
Office of the Commissionerwww.bls.gov