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The Role of Information Technology in Improving Transit Systems
by Nigel H.M. Wilson
MIT
Transportation@MIT Seminar September 29, 2009
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OUTLINE
2 Transportation@MIT September 29, 2009
Nigel H.M. Wilson 2
• MIT Transit Research Program • Key Automated Data Collection Systems (ADCS) • Key Transit Agency/Operator Functions • Impact of ADCS on Functions • Traditional Relationships Between Functions • State of Research/Knowledge • Examples of Recent Research • Emerging Possibilities • Remaining Challenges
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MIT Urban Public Transport Research Program
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A major focus of MIT transportation research over the past fifteen years
Research projects included: • Tren Urbano (Puerto Rico): 1994 - 2003 • Chicago Transit Authority: 2001 - present • Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority: 2003 - 2005 • Transport for London: 2005 - present • Diputacion Foral de Gipuzkoa 2009 – present
Six faculty and research staff 15-20 graduate students
Transportation@MIT September 29, 2009
Nigel H.M. Wilson
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COMMON PHILOSOPHY
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Multi-year applied research program conducted in close collaboration with transit operating and planning agencies • Focus has often been a major infrastructure project with MIT program helping to develop intellectual capital to match infrastructure investment
• Strong support from agency leadership
• Professional development within agencies
• Inter-disciplinary research: broad range of research questions addressed
• Application of research to multiple agencies
• Student internships within transit agencies for in-depth immersion
Transportation@MIT September 29, 2009
Nigel H.M. Wilson
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Faculty and Research Staff
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John Attanucci, Research Associate • Urban public transport planning, operations • Fare policy and management
George Kocur, Senior Lecturer • Information Technology • Ticketing systems and fare policy
Mikel Murga, Research Associate • Transportation planning and modeling • Geographic Information System
Fred Salvucci, Senior Lecturer • Transportation policy and politics
Nigel Wilson, Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering • Urban public transport planning, operations, control, and management
Jinhua Zhao, Research Scientist • Travel preferences and behavior • Transport policy
Transportation@MIT September 29, 2009
Nigel H.M. Wilson
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6 Transportation@MIT September 29, 2009
Nigel H.M. Wilson 6
Manual • low capital cost • high marginal cost • small sample sizes • aggregate • unreliable
• limited spatially and temporally • not immediately available
Automatic • high capital cost • low marginal cost • large sample sizes • more detailed, disaggregate • errors and biases can be
estimated and corrected • ubiquitous • available in real-time or quasi real-
time
Transit Agencies Are at a Critical Transition in Data Collection Technology:
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Nigel H.M. Wilson 7 Transportation@MIT September 29, 2009
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Key Automated Data Collection Systems • Automatic Vehicle Location Systems (AVL)
• bus location based on GPS • train tracking based on track circuit occupancy • real-time availability of data
• Automatic Passenger Counting Systems (APC) • bus systems based on sensors in doors with channelized passenger
movements • passenger boarding (alighting) counts for stops/stations with fare barriers • train weighing systems to estimate number of passengers on board • traditionally not available in real-time
• Automatic Fare Collection Systems (AFC) • increasingly based on contactless smart cards with unique ID • provides entry (exit) information (spatially and temporally) at the
individual level • traditionally not available in real-time
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8 Transportation@MIT September 29, 2009
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ADCS - Potential and Reality Potential • Integrated ADCS database • Models and software to support many agency decisions using ADCS
database • Providing insight into normal operations, special events, unusual
weather, etc.
Reality • Most ADCS systems are implemented independently • Data collection is ancillary to primary ADC function
• AVL - emergency notification, stop announcements • AFC - fare collection and revenue protection
• Many problems to overcome: • not easy to integrate data • requires substantial resources
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Key Transit Agency/Operator Functions
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• Service and Operations Planning (SOP) • Network and route design • Frequency setting and timetable development • Vehicle and crew scheduling • Off-line, non real-time function
• Service and Operations Control and Management (SOCM) • Dealing with deviations from SOP, both minor and major • Dealing with unexpected changes in demand • Real-time function
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Transit Service Delivery Process*
Nigel H.M. Wilson 10 Transportation@MIT September 29, 2009
Servicepolicy Timetable Opera2ons
ServiceControl
Dataanalysisandmodels
Transitagencymanagement
Opera2onalstaff
Scheduling&planningstaff
Decisions,plans
Informa2on,feedback
Demandes2ma2on
Servicedelivery
Servicetopassengers
Passengers
* Source: “Diagnosis and Assessment of Operations Control Interventions: Framework and Applications to a High Frequency Metro Line.” MST Thesis, André Carrel; MIT, 2009.
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Key Transit Agency/Operator Functions (cont’d)
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• Customer Information (CI) • Information on routes, trip times, vehicle arrival times, etc. • Both static (based on SOP) and dynamic (based on SOP and
SOCM) • Both pre-trip and en-route
• Performance Measurement and Monitoring (PMM) • Measures of operator performance against SOP • Measures of service from customer viewpoint • Traditionally an off-line function
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Impact of ADCS
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IMPACT ON SOP • AVL: detailed characterization of route segment running times • APC: detailed characterization of stop activity (boardings, alightings, and
dwell time at each stop) • AFC: detailed characterization of fare transactions for individuals over time
IMPACT ON SOCM • AVL: identifies current position of all vehicles, deviations from SOP
IMPACT ON CI • AVL: supports dynamic CI • AFC: permits characterization of normal trip-making at the individual level,
supports active dynamic CI function
IMPACT ON PMM • AVL: supports on-time performance assessment • AFC: supports passenger-oriented measures of travel time and reliability
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Traditional Relationships Between Functions
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• SOP serves as the basis for both SOCM and CI • Reasonable as long as SOP is sound and deviations
from it are not very large • Input data to the SOP has improved as a result of ADCS • Fundamentally a static model in an increasingly
dynamic world
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State of Research/Knowledge in SOP
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Network Design
Frequency Setting
Timetable Development
Vehicle Scheduling
Crew Scheduling
Cost Considerations
Dominate
Frequent Decisions
Computer-Based Analysis Dominates
Infrequent Decisions
Service Considerations
Dominate
Judgement & Manual Analysis
Dominate
Service Planning Hierarchy
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State of Research/Knowledge in SOP
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• Advanced in vehicle and crew scheduling (operations planning)
• Limited in past by weak data, less of a problem now • Limited in service planning: rules of thumb and
experience still dominate • Much research has been simplistic in terms of
formulation of objectives and constraints • Inadequate recognition of uncertainty in model
formulation • Substantial opportunities remain for better models
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State of Research/Knowledge in SOCM
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• Advances in train control systems help minimize impacts of small incidents
• Major disruptions still handled in individual manner based on judgement and experience
• Little effective decision support for controllers • Models suffer from deterministic formulation of highly
stochastic systems • Simplistic view of objectives and constraints in model
formulation • Substantial opportunities remain for better models
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Rail Operations Controllers Decision Factors
• These factors can trigger service control interventions or place constraints on interventions performed for other reasons
• Conflicts between objectives are frequent • How can we best coordinate and integrate these objectives and
constraints?
Level of service Crew management
Capacity constraints
Rolling stock management
Passenger impact
Energy management
Infrastructure maintenance
Service control
Uncertainty and manageability Safety
Source: “Diagnosis and Assessment of Operations Control Interventions: Framework and Applications to a High Frequency Metro Line.” MST Thesis, André Carrel; MIT, 2009.
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State of Research/Knowledge in CI
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• Next vehicle arrival times at stops/stations well developed and increasingly widely deployed
• Pre-trip journey planner systems widely deployed but with limited functionality in terms of recognizing individual preferences
• Strongly reliant on veracity of SOP • Ineffective in dealing with major disruptions
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Evolution of Customer Information
• Operator view --> customer view • route-based --> OD-based
• Static --> dynamic • based on SOP --> based on SOP modified by current
system state
• Pre-trip and at stop/station --> en route
• Generic customer --> specific customer
• Active systems --> passive systems
Nigel H.M. Wilson Transportation@MIT September 29, 2009
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State of Research/Knowledge in PMM
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• Generally takes the operator rather than customer perspective • route- or stop-based measures rather than OD measures • lack of measures of reliability • lack of recognition of non-linear response in terms of
customer satisfaction
• Based on achieving SOP as ultimate goal
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Examples of Recent Research Based on ADCS
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• Trip chaining based on entry-only AFC transactions and AVL data
• Travel behavior analysis: modal preferences and access distance
• Reliability metrics at OD level
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OD Matrix Estimation in CTA Bus Network
Objective: • Estimate bus passenger OD matrix for CTA at:
• single route level
• network level
CTA Network attributes: • multi-modal rail and bus system
• entry-control-only operations
Source: "Bus Passenger Origin-Destination Matrix Estimation Using Automated Data Collection Systems." Alex Cui, MST Thesis, MIT, June 2006
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Trip Chaining: Basic Idea
Each AFC record includes: • AFC card ID • transaction type • transaction time • transaction location: rail station or bus route
The destination of many trip segments (TS) is also the origin of the following trip segment.
A (locA, timeA)
B (locB, timeB)
C (locC, timeC)
D (locD, timeD) TS 1 TS 3
TS 2
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Nigel H.M. Wilson 24 Transportation@MIT September 29, 2009
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Trip-Chaining Method for OD Inference
Key Assumptions for Destination Inference to be correct: • No intermediate private transportation mode trip segment
• Passengers will not walk a long distance
• Last trip of a day ends at the origin of the first trip of the day
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Summary Information on the Data Used
• Overall AFC data (single weekday, all bus routes): – 545,000 bus passenger trips using farecard
– From these, 436,000 with boarding stop (~80% identification rate)
– From these, 244,000 with destination (~56% inference rate)
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Nigel H.M. Wilson 26 Transportation@MIT September 29, 2009
CTA Travel Behavior Analysis
* Source: Gupta, S., " Understanding Transit Travel Behavior: Value added by Smart Cards." MST Thesis, MIT, 2006.
Utsunomiya, M., J. Attanucci, N.H.M. Wilson, "Potential Uses of Transit Smart Card Registration and Transaction Data to Improve Transit Planning." Transportation Research Record 1971, pp 119-126 (2006).
• Use of CTA Chicago Card analysis of bus vs. rail preferences*
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Nigel H.M. Wilson 27 Transportation@MIT September 29, 2009
Home
Station Actual Distance
Methodology: Calculating Access Distances
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Nigel H.M. Wilson 28 Transportation@MIT September 29, 2009
Rail Access Distance Distributions
Frequent and Consistent Rail Customers (%)
Total analyzed 12,973
Access distance ≤ 1 mile 8,702 (67%)
Access distance > 1 mile 4,271 (33%)
Access distance distribution for frequent rail users (Sep 2004)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 2More
Distance (miles)
Rail u
sers
Distance > 1 mile4,271 (33%)
Distance > 2 miles2,917 (22%)
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Nigel H.M. Wilson 29 Transportation@MIT September 29, 2009
Path Choice Analysis: Sample Users Belmont-Orchard
Intersection Belmont-Sheriden
Intersection Belmont Station
• Multiple rail and bus routes serving the Loop
• Stiff competition between express bus and rail service
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Nigel H.M. Wilson 30 Transportation@MIT September 29, 2009
Path Choice Analysis : Access Distance Belmont-Orchard
Intersection Belmont-Sheriden
Intersection Belmont Station
Intersection Bus Mixed Rail Total Belmont Station 2 4 73 79 Belmont Orchard 20 9 83 112 Belmont Sheriden 170 10 21 201
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Excess Journey Time (EJT)
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Reliability Buffer Time (RBT)
RBT = 95th percentile travel time – median travel time
Additional time a passenger must budget to arrive late no more than 5% of the time
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Line Level ERBT
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Victoria Line, AM Peak, 2007
Trav
el T
ime
(min
)
February November
NB (5.74)
SB (10.74)
NB (6.54)
SB (7.38)
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
Excess RBT
Baseline RBT
4.18
5
5.52 4.18 5.52
1.56
5.22
2.36
1.86
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Emerging Possibilities
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• Better understanding of customer behavior through AFC data: • response to service and fare changes at disaggregate level • modal preferences • access distances • path choice
• More robust SOPs built on better demand-side understanding • Better models and support for SOCM based on clearer
understanding of objectives as well as demand • Exception-based CI based on stated and revealed individual
preferences, typical individual trip-making, and current AVL data • Integration of AFC and CI functions through payment-capable
cell phones
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Remaining Challenges
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• Viewing the SOP, SOCM, and CI functions more holistically, recognizing their interdependencies
• Making the SOP more dynamic and capable of reacting to unexpected events on the supply side and unanticipated changes in demand
• How can we attract more customers? • How can we finance the system expansions needed to
satisfy increased demand?