The U.S. in 2008: The Election and the Economy
I. Demographic data
II. U.S. political process
III. 2008 election
IV. State of U.S. economy
Population Density by State
Growth in Minority Population
SOURCE: Census Bureau | GRAPHIC: The Washington Post - May 10, 2006
Distribution of African Americans
Distribution of Asian Americans
The U.S. Electoral Cycle
Every TWO years congressional elections all members of the House of Representatives (2 year terms) 1/3 of the members of the Senate (6 year terms) November of even numbered years, take office January of odd numbered years
Every FOUR years congressional and presidential elections November of years divisible by 4, take office January of odd numbered years presidents can only serve 2 terms
2004 Bush (R) defeated Kerry (D) Republicans keep control of both Houses of Congress
2006 Democrats win majority in both House of Representatives and Senate
2008 John McCain (R) vs. Obama or Clinton (D) + all members of House of Representative + 33 members of Senate
2010 all members of House of Representative + 33 members of Senate
Senate House
Democrats 44 201REPUBLICANS 55 229
Senate House
DEMOCRATS 51 233Republicans 49 202
Control of Congress before 2006 Election
Control of Congress after 2006 Election
The Presidential Selection Process
1. 50 State primaries or caucusesheld between January and June, each state can choose its own timeeach party has its own separate primary or caucus2 purposes
to select delegates to go to the national convention to nominate the president
to select party candidates for congressional, state, and local electionsprimary is a vote much like a regular election votecaucus is a set of public meetings where people declare their preferences
20% of Democratic delegates are “superdelegates” chosen by state parties
2. National conventionIn July the Democratic delegates meet at their national conventionRepublicans meet in AugustJohn McCain has already won a majority of Republican delegatesBarack Obama has a small lead over Hillary Clinton, but does not have a majority
3. General Election + Electoral CollegeIn the first week of November the national vote is heldthe vote that counts is the vote of states in the electoral college
states vote as a bloc (win Florida by one vote and you win all 54 Florida votes)so in rare cases the winner of the popular vote does not win the electoral collegein 2000 Al Gore won more votes, but George Bush won the electoral college and became president
Electoral College Results 2004 Size of State Adjusted for Size of Population
Three party eras
The U.S. party system usually shows historical continuities
I. Democratic Dominance 1933-1968Democratic presidents for 28 of 36 yearsDemocrats controlled Congress for 32 of 36 years
II. Divided Government: Split Level 1969-1994Republican Presidents for 20 of 26 yearsBut Democrats controlled the House of Representatives all 26 yearsDemocrats controlled the Senate 20 of 26 years
III. The New Republican Majority in Congress 1995-2006Democrat Clinton faced Republican majorities in Congress his last 6 yearsRepublican Bush had Republican majorities in the House for 6 years and the Senate for
four yearsDemocrats won control of both houses of Congress in 2006
Themes from Candidate or Party Websites
Voters’ Identification of Most Important Issues to Them
Thinking ahead to the November presidential election, what is the single most important issue in your choice for president?
2/1/08 1/12/08 12/9/07 11/1/07 9/7/07
Economy/Jobs 39 29 24 14 11
Iraq/War in Iraq 19 20 23 29 35
Health care 8 10 10 13 13
Terrorism/Natl security 5 4 9 5 6
Ethics/Corruption in govt 4 5 4 4 6
Immigration 4 4 5 5 5
Public Opinion on which party can do a better job on issues
Which political party, the (Democrats) or the (Republicans), do you trust to do a better job handling ______?
Democrats Republicans The economy 52 (44) 33 (45) war in Iraq 48 (30) 34 (56) Health care 56 (47) 29 (37)War on terrorism 44 (25) 37 (61)Immigration 40 (NA) 37 (NA) budget deficit 52 (38) 31 (46) Taxes 48 (46) 40 (44)
Numbers in parenthesis = scores in 2002
Numbers do not add up to 100% because of answers like both parties, neither party, orno opinion.
Numbers in xxx are numbers taken during the first Bush administration.
U.S Economic Problemsadapted from http://www.thought-criminal.org/article/node/1018
U.S. Debt Crisis
1. The average U.S. household owes more debt than it owns in assets
2. In 1945, half of all the debt in the world was owed to the U.S. government, U.S. corporations, and individuals
3. Today, half of all the debt in the world is owed by the U.S. government, U.S. corporations, and individuals
Number of Homes in foreclosure process
Third Quarter 2006 223,233
First Quarter 2007 333,731
Third Quarter 2007 446,726
1% of all American homes were in foreclosure process in 2007
up from .6% in 2006
In the U.S. the home ownership rate is approximately 2 out of 3 households
Percentage of Americans without Health Insurance
More U.S. EconomicIndicators
Euro exchange rate against the Dollar
Yen exchange rate against the Dollar