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The US Presidency and American Foreign
Policy
The Most Powerful Job on Earth
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Presidential Powers
• Article 2, Section 1:– Executive Power in a Prez and
VP for 4 years• Article 2, Section 2:
– Commander-in-Chief– Pardons– Make treaties– Nominate and appoint and fill
vacancies
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Presidential Powers
• Article 2, Section 3:– Information on State of the Union– Convene Special Congressional
Sessions– Receive Foreign ambassadors
• Article 2, Section 4:– Removed by Impeachment for
treason, bribery, high crimes and misdemeanors
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Presidential Powers
• 20th Amendment:– Changed term to begin January
20• 22nd Amendment:
– 2 terms• 25th Amendment:
– Presidential succession and disability
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Presidential Expectations
• Chief of State• Chief Executive• Commander-in-Chief• Chief Diplomat• Chief Legislator• Party Chief• Voice of the people• Protector of the Peace• Manager of the Prosperity• World leader
ALL AT THE SAME TIME!!
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Presidential Limitations
• Congress• Courts• Bureaucracy• Federalism• Capitalism• Public• Time• Outside Forces
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Evolution of the Presidency
• Traditional “Do Nothing” Presidency
• “Modern Presidency”– greater formal and informal
powers for initiative– increased staff and advisory
capacity• Brownlow Commission Report
(1937)• EOP (1939)
– agenda setter– most visible national actor
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Presidential Leadership
• No-Win Presidency?• Lead by Command or by
Persuasion?• The President’s Helpers• The One, The Few, or The
Many?
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Advising the President
The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly
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The Good: Brent Scowcroft (?)
• NSA to Ford and “41”
• General, USAF (ret.)
• PhD Columbia
• (pic courtesy www.scowcroft.com)
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The Bad: John M. Poindexter (!)
• NSA to Reagan ’85-86
• Vice Admiral, USN (ret.)
• convicted in 1990 of conspiracy, obstruction of justice, and destruction of evidence in connection with the Iran-Contra affair
• Overturned on appeal• (Don Rypka-AFP)• Condi is a close
second?
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The Ugly: You pick…
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The “First”
• McGeorge Bundy
• JFK and LBJ, 1961-1966
• Harvard’s Dean of the Faculty at 34
• 1919-1996
• Actually the first was Robert Cutler for Ike
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The Current• Stephen J. Hadley• Rice’s Deputy• CIA called him twice
to waive off the Niger uranium story
• Lawyer, and worked at the Scowcroft Group
• NSC (Staff) in Ford administration (NATO and Europe)
• b. 1947, Toledo, OH• BA, Cornell (’69) ;
JD, Yale (’72)(Pic stolen from usinfo.state.gov)
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It’s MY power!
• National Security Act 1947– NSC– JCS– SecDef (et al.)– CIA
• Increasing reliance on NSC staff
• Centralization of policymaking in the White House
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OK, not really all “in” the White House:
Eisenhower (Old) Executive Office Building
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Advising the President
• Short Run Advantages for the President
• Long Run Disadvantages for the Presidency?
• Principal-Agent Relationships
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Advising the President
• Alexander L. George, Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy: The Effective Use of Information and Advice (Boulder, CO: Westview, 1980)
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Staffing Systems(Ideal Types)
• Formalistic• Competitive• Collegial
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Formalistic Systems
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Formalistic Systems
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More Formalism
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Competitive System
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Collegial Model
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Decision-Making Tasks
• Survey Objectives• Canvass Alternatives• Search for Information• Assimilate and Process New
and Discrepant Information• Evaluate Costs, Risks,
Implications• Develop Implementation,
Monitoring, and Contingency Plans
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Process-Outcomes
• Irving Janis: Groupthink
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Process-Outcome Link?
• Herek, G. M., I. Janis and P. Huth, Decision Making during International Crisis: Is Quality of Process Related to Outcome? Journal of Conflict Resolution 31 (1987): 203-226.
• Mark Shafer and Scott Crichlow“The Process-Outcome Connection in Foreign Policy Decision Making: A Quantitative Study Building on Groupthink,” International Studies Quarterly 46 (March 2002): 45-68.
• Figure from John T. Rourke and Mark A. Boyer, International Politics on the World Stage (Boston: McGraw-Hill, 2004, 5/ed brief edition)
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Getting it Right
• George: Multiple Advocacy
• Not sure I can tell you how to guarantee success, but I can tell you how to nearly guarantee failure. And scandal.