Download - Topic Disadvantages
![Page 1: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Topic DisadvantagesJames Stevenson
![Page 2: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
US Industries – Background• Auto industry• Second-largest automobile producer in the world• Est. 3-3.5% of US GDP• Directly employs 1.7 million Americans• Spends $16-18 billion annually on research and
development• Bailed out for $80 billion in 2008
• Airline Industry• Devastated by 9/11—lost $30 billion and laid off 100k
workers from 2000-2005. Bailed out for $4.6 billion.• Will fly 323 million seat-miles in 2012• Employs nearly 600,000 Americans
![Page 3: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
US Industries – Structure• Uniqueness: industry strong now• Link: plan trades off w/ industry growth• Siphons demand• Decreases competitiveness• “Zero sum”—predicated off aff solvency
• Internal link: industry is good, generally for a few reasons:• Economy• Hegemony/competitiveness• Aerospace
![Page 4: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Economy—Background• The 2008 recession:• Recession = sustained period of decreased economic
activity• Begins in 2007. Officially ends in 2009 but lingering
effects remain• Housing bubble• Derivative deregulation• Median household income drops to 1996 levels
• The facts:• Unemployment in June is 8.2%. +800,000 jobs.• Retail sales dropped 0.5% in June—third straight negative
month• Growth in the last 11 fiscal quarters• Economy is 1.2% larger than pre-recession levels
![Page 5: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Economy—Structure• UQ: Economy is okay• L: There are a few possibilities--• Fiscal discipline• Spending decreases US credit rating• Spending snowballs—”pork barrel” projects
• Inflation• “Invisible hand” of the free market” vs targetted
government spending• Private investment crowd-out
• !: Economy
![Page 6: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Economy—Strategy• Two important techniques:• Know the facts.• Know the theory, so you can spin the facts.• Econ debates are 75% spin.
• Internal link comparisons• Short vs. long term growth• Sustainability of growth• Evidence specificity—generic cards vs aff/transportation
specific analysis• Eurozone comparisons
• Economic decline as “escalatino” impact—turns case args
![Page 7: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Oil—Background• Oil prices• Spot price per barrel of Brent crude• Follow laws of supply and demand• “Market flooding”—massive supply increase to offset drop
in price• OPEC• Several of the most powerful oil retailers in the world—
except the US and Russia• Trades oil in dollars… for now
![Page 8: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Oil—Structure• UQ: Oil prices up• L: Plan lowers oil prices• !: High oil prices good—another entity/country
depends on them
• Basically infinite possible impacts.• Aff—either don’t do things that link to the DA, or
keep updated on generic parts of the argument (oil prices uniqueness, economic stability, alt causes to the link, etc) and learn to impact turn
![Page 9: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Oil—SCuFI file countries• Saudi Arabia• 2nd largest reserves and largest producer (as of March)• US ally, sort of. • Close neighbors w/ Egypt (just had a revolution), Israel
(historic enemies, nuclear-armed), Syria (undergoing revolution), Iraq (yeah), Bahrain + Yemen (successfully stifled revolutions), Iran (probably seeking nuclear armament, also historic enemies)
• Russia• 8th largest reserves, 2nd largest producer• Taxes on oil = half of government revenue• $1 in oil pricing = $1.5 billion of revenue
![Page 10: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Buy America• Provisions requiring that spending goes to
American companies• Political interest• Directness of stimulus
• “Protectionism”—doesn’t give other countries a fair chance—triggers reciprocation
• Trade = “escalatino” impact
![Page 11: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Buy America—Structure• UQ: Trade up now• L: Plan has to use Buy American, triggers
protectionism• Spills over—economic ripples• Other countries’ statements
• !: Protectionism bad• Trade connectivity = peace
![Page 12: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Elections• Presidential elections. They are happening. Read
the news.• They matter.
• Normal election year politics = gridlock, because any controversy is kryptonite
• Infinite impacts.• Electoral college, not popular vote = some states
matter more than others• Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Iowa, North Carolina,
Arizona, New Hampshire
![Page 13: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Elections—Structure• UQ: Obama/Romney will win now• L: Plan is unpopular/popular, making
Obama/Romney lose• !: Obama/Romney good• Iran strikes• Economy• Warming/emissions/green tech• Immigration• Health care repeal
![Page 14: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Elections—Strategic/Tactical Notes• Two ways to get ahead on uniqueness:• Cut cards regularly.• Nate Silver = generally considered the best poll analyst in
the country• Cut swing-state specific uniqueness/link modules
to beat link turns• Elections debate often devolve to impacts v.
impact turns—be prepared with uniqueness tricks and turn shields• Obama can’t fulfill his agenda, GOP will constrain him• Romney lacks political spine, will moderate once he’s
elected
![Page 15: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Politics—Structure• UQ: X bill will pass• L/IL: Plan’s political fallout makes X bill not pass• !: X bill good
![Page 16: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Politics—Topic scenarios• Wind PTC• Jackson-Vanik/PNTR• Debt Ceilling/Fiscal Cliff
Further down the road:• Immigration• Energy/emissions regulation• Health care repeal• CTBT
![Page 17: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Politics—Form• Extremely technical• Put it in the 1NR.
• Three essential elements• Recent cards• Short/efficient cards• Lots of cards
• Comparisons• Predictive vs. descriptive• Qualifications
![Page 18: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Politics—on the 2011-2012 topic• Infrastructure spending is generally unpopular• Cost• Pork
• But it might also be kinda popular• Contractors• Public good• Stimulus/unemployment
![Page 19: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Political Capital• Simply: presidential ability to leverage his/her
clout to pass bills• Public pressure• Back-room negotiating• Agenda setting• Have to win Obama would push the plan• Not simply a question of popularity/unpopularity
of the president OR of the plan
![Page 20: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Politics—other links & link turns• Focus—has to work on one issue to get it passed• Agenda/docket—plan knocks another item off the
legislative list• Winners win—classic 2AC answer• Winning passage of difficult legislation builds, not spends,
political capital• Assumes political capital
![Page 21: Topic Disadvantages](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022081507/568164cc550346895dd6f00a/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Videos I wanted to show• They are funny• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNixDlRoMvA• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8UtRNCztVI• http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=HOgj2etJs3Y&feature=player_embedded• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdTgKarqTQ0• http://www.theonion.com/video/man-becomes-
gop-frontrunner-after-showing-no-inter,19678/