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Bellevue-Kirkland-RedmondTravel Demand Modeling ExperienceTravel Demand Modeling Experience
Jin Ren, P.E.
City of Bellevue, Washington, USA
October 19, 2004
18th International EMME/2 User’s Conference Mexico City, Mexico
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Puget Sound
Lake Washington Lake
Sammamish
SEATTLE
I-405
SR-520
I-90
Mercer Island
I-5
KIRKLAND
I-5
I-405
REDMOND
BELLEVUE
0 17,000 34,0008,500
Feet.
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Introduction
EMME/2 BKR Model Since 1991 MP0 – Base Year Model Platform MP6 – 6-Year Short-Range MP MP12 – Mid-Range 12 Year MP MP20 – Long-Range 20 Year MP MP30 – Long-Range 30 Year MP
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BKR Model Enhancements Migrating multiple off-model functions to a complete 4-step
EMME/2 macro process Tying trip generation to household cross-classification Introducing multi-class (SOV and HOV) auto assignments EMME/2 Network match-up with GIS tiger line file Calibrating to the 1999 regional household travel survey Updating with new 2000 census data Building a transit modeling capability with capacity
constrained assignment Park-&-Ride lot capacity constrained mode splits
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BKR Model Application Annual base year model calibration and validation (MP0) Street closure/construction traffic diversion analysis (MP0) Annual Transportation Concurrency Update (MP6) Development review modeling (MP6) 2015 Transportation Facility Plan Update (MP12) 2004 update of traffic impact fee schedule (MP12 and MP6) 2015 sub-area SOV/HOV traversal matrix (MP12) 2020 Bellevue Downtown Implementation Plan (MP20) Overlake Hospital Medical Center expansion (MP30)
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Table 1: Final Validation of Trip Generation Models for the BKR Study Area
2003 BKR Modified
with Census Data
1999 Household Survey for BKR Study
Area
Model-Survey
Difference
Model-Survey Percent
Difference
Home-Based Work 1.39 1.47 -0.08 -5.44%
Home-Based College 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.00%
Home-Based School 1.12 1.17 -0.04 -3.41%
Home-Based Shop 3.14 3.17 -0.03 -0.95%
Home-Based Other 0.49 0.51 -0.02 3.92%
Work-Other 0.67 0.66 0.02 3.03%
Other-Other 1.68 1.68 0.00 0.00%
Total 8.55 8.72 0.17 1.95%
Base Year Model Trip Generation
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Base Year Model Trip Distribution
Table 2: Final BKR Area Average Trip Duration by Purpose (minutes)
MP0 R5 (2003) 1999 PSRC HH SURVEY
DIFFERENCE PERCENT DIFFERENCE
HBW+HBC 19.34 18.89 0.45 2%
HBO+HBShop 11.46 12.24 -0.78 -6%
NHB 10.56 11.40 -0.84 -7%
HBSch 10.09 9.93 0.16 2%
Average 12.21 12.99 -0.78 -6%
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Base Year Model Mode Choice Table 3: 2003 BKR MP0 R5 Mode Choice Model Results vs. 1999 Regional Survey
Trip Types and Modes BKR MP0-R5(2003)
PSRC 1999 Household
Survey
Model-Survey Difference
HBWTrips
Drive Alone 86.1% 85.8% 0.3%
Shared Ride 5.0% 5.2% -0.2%
Transit – Walk Access 6.8% 7.2% -0.4%
Transit – Auto Access 2.1% 1.8% 0.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0%
HBOTrips
Auto 99.1% 99.3% -0.2%
Transit 0.9% 0.7% 0.2%
Total 100.0% 100.0%
NHB Trips
Auto 99.1% 98.8% 0.3%
Transit 0.9% 1.2% -0.3%
Total 100.0% 100.0%
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Figure 2: 2003 Base Year BKR Model PM Peak Hour Auto Traffic Screenlines: Model/Count Ratios
NORTH
SOUTH
EAST
EW
EW
NS
NS
NS
EW
EW
WEST
EW
EW
EW
EW
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
6
8
D
D
A
A
B C
C
B
C
D
A
A BC
D
A B C D E
E F
A B C
A B C
A
DA CB
A
F
D
CB
C
B
A
A
A
A B
B
7
C
B
5
NS
-2-B
EL
:CB
D
NS
-1-B
EL
:CB
D
NS
-1-B
EL
NS-
2-BE
L
EW-2-BEL
NS
-1-R
ED
EW-1-RED
EW-1-BEL:CBD
EW-2-BEL:CBD
EW-3-BEL:CBD
NS
-1-O
V
NS
-2-O
V
EW-1-BEL
NS
-3-R
ED
NS
-2-R
ED
EW-4-BEL
EW-3-BEL
NS-4-RED
0.96
0.93
1.10
1.08
1.23
0.94
1.16
1.04
1.03
1.09
1.01
1.11
1.20
1.06
1.02
0.98
0.97
0.99
1.32
1.29 1.12
1.21
1.00
0.88
0.87
0.98
0.96
1.06
1.09
1.05
0.95
1.021.11
Lake Washington
Lake Sammamish
V:\tr\ai\planning\Modeling\bkrscreen_2003_a.mxd
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Base Year Model v.s. Actual Counts
Figure 4. 2003 PM PK Hr. Network Forecast v.s. 2003 Actual Traffic Counts
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Figure 5: 2002 Base Year PM Peak Hour NE 4th Street Select Link Assignment
Street Closure Select Link Analysis (MP0)
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Figure 6: 2002 Base Year PM PK Hr. Volume Differences with/without NE 4th Street
Street Closure Volume Changes (MP0)
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Annual Transportation Concurrency Update (MP6)
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Figure 8. City Center II Development PM PK Hour Select Project Trip Assignment
Development Review Modeling (MP6)
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2015 Transportation Facility Plan (MP12) - Impact Fee Assessment
• Select link TFP group assignments by 14 Sub-areas, based on MP12 (a downtown example is shown in Figure 9)
• Select link TFP group assignments by 14 Sub-areas, based on MP6 (2003 Existing + Permitted LU)
• Select link group trip tables by sub-area for MP12 and MP6• Sub-area traffic growth rates related to TFP select link groups• TFP Growth Cost = (Sub-area traffic growth rates) X (TFP total
costs by sub-area)• Average Cost Per Trip = TFP Growth Costs / Sub-area Trip Growth• Cost Per Trip by commercial, non-commercial and city-wide areas
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Figure 9: 2015 Select TFP Link Group Identified in Downtown Bellevue
Select TFP Link Group in Downtown Bellevue
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SOV/HOV Traversal Matrix (MP12)
Figure 10: 2015 TFP MP12 145th Pl Sub-area In-Gate and Out-Gate Link ID
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Bellevue Downtown Implementation Plan (MP20)
Figure 11: 2020 PM PK Hr. Traffic Difference (Preferred Alternative – Baseline) Plot
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Overlake Hospital Expansion (MP30)
Figure 12: 2030 OHMC Expansion/NE 10th w/Ramps Select SOV PM PK Hr. Trip Assignment
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Overlake Hospital Expansion (MP30)
Fig. 13: 2030 OHMC Expansion/NE 10th w/Ramps Select HOV PM PK Hr. Trip Assignment
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Interlocal Agreement AmongBellevue-Kirkland-Redmond
• BKR Model Platforms Are Shared Among BKR Partners• BKR Model Is Annually Maintained and Upgraded
through Jurisdictional Partnership• Variety of EMME/2 Applications in the Cities of BKR• Time Savings, Cost Sharing, Data and Technical
Support• Enhance Opportunities to Influence Transportation
Decision Making at the Local, Sub-Regional and Regional Level Planning
• These Benefits Are Demonstrated by the Above Discussed Examples