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Trends in Tennessee Forest Lands andTrends in Tennessee Forest Lands and
Real Estate Values
Don Hodges & Dave OstermeierDon Hodges & Dave OstermeierDon Hodges & Dave OstermeierDon Hodges & Dave OstermeierThe University of TennesseeThe University of Tennessee
Natural Resource Policy CenterNatural Resource Policy CenterDepartment of Forestry, Wildlife & FisheriesDepartment of Forestry, Wildlife & Fisheries
Tennessee Farmland Legacy ConferenceTennessee Farmland Legacy ConferenceMontgomery Bell State Park Montgomery Bell State Park
October 9October 9‐‐10, 200810, 2008
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MORE PEOPLE, MORE CROWDS MORE PEOPLE, MORE CROWDS
CHANGES IN LAND VALUES & PARCEL NUMBERS CHANGES IN LAND VALUES & PARCEL NUMBERS IN METRO COUNTIESIN METRO COUNTIES
NORTHERN PLATEAU CASE STUDYNORTHERN PLATEAU CASE STUDY
IMPLICATIONS IMPLICATIONS
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8.00
POPULATION GROWTH AND DENSITY PROJECTIONSPOPULATION GROWTH AND DENSITY PROJECTIONS
7.00
7.50
6
6.50
7.00
5.50
6.00
ACRES/RESIDENT
POPULATION (in millions)
4.50
5.00
3.50
4.00
3.002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
SOURCE: UT CENTER FOR BUSINESS AD ECONOMIC RESEARCH 2006
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Change in Forest ParcelizationChange in Forest Parcelization
PeriodNumber of
PatchesAvg. patch
size (ac)Patch Density
(#/100ac)Period Patches size (ac) (#/100ac)
1992 2617 143.35 0.70
2001 4488 64.62 1.55
Change (%) 71.49 -54.92 122.09
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KNOXVILLEKNOXVILLE CHATTANOOGACHATTANOOGA NASHVILLENASHVILLE MEMPHISMEMPHISBLOUNT BRADLEY BEDFORD FAYETTEJEFFERSON MARION CHEATHAM HAYWOODLOUDON SEQUATCHIE SUMNER TIPTONQSEVIER WILLIAMSON
WILSON
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CHANGE IN APPRAISED CHANGE IN APPRAISED LAND VALUE LAND VALUE BY BY METROPOLITAN METROPOLITAN REGIONREGION
$14,000,000,000
$10,000,000,000
$12,000,000,000
$8,000,000,000
2001 VALUE
2007 VALUE
$4,000,000,000
$6,000,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$0KNOXVILLE CHATTANOOGA NASHVILLE MEMPHIS
SOURCE: TENNESSEE PROPERTY TAX DIVSION, 2008 SOURCE: TENNESSEE PROPERTY TAX DIVSION, 2008
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CHANGE IN PARCEL NUMBERS BY CHANGE IN PARCEL NUMBERS BY METROPOLITAN REGIONMETROPOLITAN REGION
250,000
200,000
150,000
2001 PARCELS
2007 PARCELS
100,000
50,000
‐KNOXVILLE CHATTANOOGA NASHVILLE MEMPHIS
SOURCE: TENNESSEE PROPERTY TAX DIVSION, 2008 SOURCE: TENNESSEE PROPERTY TAX DIVSION, 2008
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CHANGE IN AGRICULTURAL VALUE PER PARCELCHANGE IN AGRICULTURAL VALUE PER PARCEL
$350,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$250,000
2001 VALUE
2007 VALUE
$150,000
$50,000
$100,000
$0KNOXVILLE CHATTANOOGA NASHVILLE MEMPHIS
SOURCE: TENNESSEE PROPERTY TAX DIVSION, 2008 SOURCE: TENNESSEE PROPERTY TAX DIVSION, 2008
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CHANGE IN FOREST VALUE BY CHANGE IN FOREST VALUE BY PARCELPARCEL
$140,000
$160,000
$120,000
$80,000
$100,000
2001 VALUE
2007 VALUE
$40 000
$60,000
$20,000
$40,000
$0KNOXVILLE CHATTANOOGA NASHVILLE
SOURCE: TENNESSEE PROPERTY TAX DIVSION, 2008 SOURCE: TENNESSEE PROPERTY TAX DIVSION, 2008
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NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAUNORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAUNORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAUNORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
CASE STUDYCASE STUDYCASE STUDYCASE STUDY
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ACRES SOLD IN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES(developed)
12000
ES
8000
10000
AC
R
4000
6000 1985-19901991-19951996-2000
0
2000 2001-2005
COUNTY
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ACRES SOLD IN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES(undeveloped)(undeveloped)
1800020000
ES 12000140001600018000
AC
R
60008000
10000 1985-19901991-19951996-2000
020004000 2001-2005
COUNTY
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Subdivision Parcels vs. Non-Subdivision Parcels Sold1985 - 2005
25000
1985 2005
20000
Pa
rcel
s So
ld
15000
Nu
mb
er o
f P
Parcels sold not within a subdivision
5000
10000 Parcels sold within a subdivision
0
5000
1985-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005
Years
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Place of Residence of PurchasersPlace of Residence of PurchasersN th C b l d Pl t P lN th C b l d Pl t P l
2000
Northern Cumberland Plateau ParcelsNorthern Cumberland Plateau Parcels
1400
1600
1800
yers
South
800
1000
1200
mb
er o
f B
uy South
Northeast
Mid-central
California
200
400
600
Nu
m California
Florida
0
1985 - 19901991 - 1995
1996 -2000 2001 -2000 2001 -
2005
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Comparing the Forest Coverage
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Land Use Change & Loss of Forest Habitat
Implications of Parcelization
•Land Use Change & Loss of Forest Habitat•Decrease in Timber Harvesting from these lands•Change in Rural Character •Change in Ecosystem Services
• Decline in Water Quality & Quantity• Impacts on Aquatic Systemsp q y
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Implications of Parcelization
•Importance of Planning at Local Levels
Implications of Parcelization
•What to develop and what to sustain?•New Links: Landowners and Service Agencies•New Partners & Networks
• New Linkages Among State/Fed Agencies• EC&D, Local Planning Assistance• Institute for Public Service, MTAS, CTAS, ,• Development Districts• TDA, Division of Forestry• TN Wildlife Resources Agency• Natural Resource Conservation Service• Univ of TN: Research & Extension
• New Linkages Between City/County Officials and State & Fed Agencies, Universities