Trends in the World Traditional &
Renewable Heating Markets
Krystyna Dawson
BSRIA WMI
June 2014
2 Excellence in Market Intelligence
• Turnover £3.7 million for 2013
40% multi-client
60% private client including
management consultancy
• Research across 94 countries
• 35 permanent multi-lingual analysts and
• 35 independent consultants
• Offices in China, US, Brazil, UK, France,
Spain, Germany, partners in other countries
• Japan office opening shortly
• Global network of associates eg. JARN
BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence
3 Excellence in Market Intelligence
BSRIA Regular Multi-Client Studies 2013
& 2014 Smart
Environmental Controls
Security
Lighting controls
Fire Detection
Smart Homes
Energy Management
Air Conditioning Worldwide Review and In-depth
Air handling units & fan coils
Chillers
Large packaged & close control
Splits
Windows & moveables
Brand & Distribution
Refrigeration
Renewables Worldwide Heat Pumps
Worldwide Solar Thermal
Micro CHP
Fuel Cells
Gas Heat Pumps
Hybrid Heat Pumps
Residential Heat Recovery
Commercial Heat Pumps
Commercial Solar Thermal
Solar PV
Heating
Annual Worldwide Review
Domestic boilers
Commercial boilers
Water heaters
Radiators & under-floor heating
HVAC 2020
Integration/overlap
IT
Annual Worldwide Review
Structured cabling
Data centres
Wireless
Passive optical LAN
IT Convergence
Air Conditioning Heating Renewables Cabling
Europe 11 18 14 11
Asia Pacific 11 6 6 5
Americas 4 5 3 3
Middle East, India & Africa 3 7 4
4 Excellence in Market Intelligence 11/02/2010
Policy long term impact on dwellings –
Europe
Reduction of CO2 emissions
Efficiency of products & systems
Integration of products & systems
Reduction of energy consumption
Source: BSRIA
5 Excellence in Market Intelligence 11/02/2010
France Germany
Policy & incentives impact on HP sales –
Europe
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Growth
211%
Decline
40%
Growth
51%
Growth
99%
Growth
45%
Growth
52%
Decline
22%
2006
• Low interest loans
• Lower electricity tariffs from utilities
• Market driven by new dwellings that was going strong
2008
• HP included in market incentive program
2010
• HP financial support available for existing dwellings
only
Quick rise of electricity prices slows market growth
2006
• Existing tax credit have been raised to 50%
• Quick rise in fossil fuel prices but low electricity price
2010
• Reduction of tax credit to 25% for A/W HP
(15% in 2012)
• Announced increase in electricity price
• High tax credit and FiT for PV
• SHW HP receive 40% tax credit (reduced to 15% in
2014)
Source: BSRIA
Source: BSRIA
6 Excellence in Market Intelligence 11/02/2010
Japan U.S.
Policy & incentives impact on HP sales –
Japan / US
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016f
2002
• Japanese government financial support for CO2
water heater heat pumps.
• HP parts of ECO points scheme
Early 2012
• Government direct subsidies for HP stopped
• ECO points remained.
• ECO CUTE seen as electricity consuming product
– bad image
End 2009
• G/W/W heat pumps receive federal and state
incentives.
April 2015
• New federal efficiency standards of DOE: all new
electric storage water heaters over 55 gallons will
effectively become an air-to-water cylinder-integrated
water heater.
Growth
242%
Growth
nearly
7 X
Growth
6 X
Decline
34%
Source: BSRIA
Source: BSRIA
7 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Heat Pump
2020 Outlook
7
22% 17%
10%
19%
7%
15%
4% 6%
18% 18%
7% 1%
51%
0% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,0002012 2020 CAGR 2012-2020
27%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
China
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
Sales volume per country with CAGR 2012 - 2020 growth units
growth units
Source: BSRIA
8 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Water Heating Markets
8
World Water Heating, 2013
Largest Water Heating markets, 2013
Total: around 98.6 mln units (include
ESWH, GSWH, EIWH, GIWH, ST WH,
SHWHP)
Based on BSRIA market analysis for 44 countries
Europe 11%
Russia 3% North
America 11%
Brazil 28% India
2%
China 28%
Japan 4%
Saudi Arabia 3%
Others 10%
0.0
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
20,000.0
25,000.0
30,000.0
Brazil China Europe NorthAmerica
Japan
Electric storage
Gas storage
Electric instantaneous
Gas instantaneous
ST Water Heaters
SHW HP
Source: BSRIA
Source: BSRIA
9 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Water Heating market - Europe
9
Water Heating market,
by type of provision, 2013
Water Heating market
by type of provision, 2010
• Electric storage have been the most
popular product.
• The share of renewable WH
systems is stable but SHW HP have
increased at ST WH expense.
Source: BSRIA, based on market analysis for 19 European countries
Electric storage
43%
Gas storage
1%
Electric inst 8%
Gas inst 10%
Combi boilers
36%
ST systems
5%
SHWHP 0%
ST Water Heaters
3% SHW HP
2%
Combi boilers 34%
Electric storage 44%
Gas storage 1%
Electric instantaneous
8%
Gas instantaneous
8%
Source: BSRIA
10 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Solar Thermal
2020 Outlook
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
China
Th
ou
sa
nd
s m
2
CAGR
2012-2020=
7.1%
12.3%
5.4% 6.2%
3.8%
8.2%
15.7%
-2.4%
0.3%
7.1%
13.9%
0.7%
2.0%
10.4%
2.5%
7.1%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2012 2020 CAGR 2012-2020 growth Thousands m2
Source: BSRIA,
11 Excellence in Market Intelligence
ErP - Impact on products
• Increase in Combined & Hybrid
systems
Eco Design
A +++ ≥150%
A ++ ≥125%
A + ≥98%
A ≥90%
B ≥82%
C ≥75%
D ≥36%
E ≥34%
Cogeneration Gas HP
Condensing
boilers
Non-
condensing
boilers
Ground /Water to
water HP
Air to water HP
From 26/9/2015
products with Label
D to G are no longer
allowed to be sold
• Enhanced Controls
Fuel cell
Labels mandatory from Sep. 2015
11
• Dramatic decrease in sales of
non-condensing boiler
12 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Boiler technology shift
Domestic gas & oil boiler sales, 2012 - 2017
Outside the EU market Inside the EU market ‘000 units
‘000 units
12
70%
92%
30%
8%
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2012 2017
non-condensing
condensing
Source: BSRIA, based on the analysis of 9 largest European markets Source: BSRIA, based on the analysis of Turkey, Russia, China, S. Korea
12% 15%
88%
85%
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2012 2017
non-condensing
condensing
13 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Domestic boilers - main world heating markets
Total domestic boiler sales, 2012 - 2017
‘000 units
13
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2012
2013
2017
Source: BSRIA
14 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Small cogeneration (CHP <50 kW)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Japan Germany UK Italy Netherlands France
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
300
(+34%)
Total market in 2013: 20,660 units (CAGR 2009/2016: 9%)
Expected decline in Japan due to competition from Fuel Cell
9,900
(-2%)
8,700
(+20%)
1,480
(+40%)
120
(+15%)
100
(>90%)
units
14
Source: BSRIA
15 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Stationary Fuel Cell Systems - Japan
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F
Micro CHP
Fuel Cells
• PEM FC entered the market in
2009.
• SO FC entered the market in
2012.
• FC old under the name of
ENEFARM.
• Supported financially from 2009.
• Part of the Off-Grid Power
System Enhancement
Programme (BUNSANGATA
DENGEN DONYU SOKUSHIN
JIGYO HOJYO KIN)
• Government target: 1.4 million
FC installations by 2020.
units
Source: BSRIA
16 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Stationary Fuel Cell systems- Europe
European sales of Fuel Cells under 10kWe
Source: BSRIA
units
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
PEM FC
SO FC
17 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Thank you
Contact:
Krystyna Dawson
Senior Manager – Heating & Renewables
BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence
Direct: +44 (0)1344 465 638; Mob: +44 (0)7990 595836
Email: [email protected]