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PROJECT MOON RAKER
Trident Solution
A Discussion FrameworkPositioning Mayor Michael L. Rama for Re-election
March 2012 to May 15, 2013
COMPETITION ANALYSISStatus of perception and preferences if balloting is held March 2, 2012
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Contested SectorsAcross AgeBrackets
Est.VoteMass
Theaters C/F PotentialNORTH
SOUTH
MLR TRO
Services 41-60 163,01287,860
75,152
28/34 46,947 54,609
Industrial 22-40 151,51081,669
69,841
32/28 49,543 42,422
Youth 19-21 53,12928,631
24,498
26/34 14,079 18,063
Agriculture 41-55 73,14639,430
33,716
31/28 25,330 20,480
Others*UP/FBNRC/SC
81,67944,024
37,655
26/35 21,073 28,669
Total 522,47
6
281,6
14
240,8
62
385/4
03
156,9
72
164,2
43PDP-LABAN sampling survey, March 1719, 2012; Analysis based on interpolated data from US/UK political sections (2012):Country Sheet forwww.cia.gov, CIA World Fact Book (2012): Average Voter Turnout at 78%; C.F. is convention factor
IntroducingCombined Issue Interception,
Community Relations, Coalition Building
And PR/Media Relations
RATIONALETo lay the ground work for 2013 mayoralty campaign
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SITUATION ANALYSISGetting MLR re-elected needs a STRONG LIFT from a set of valid issues close to the hearts and minds of
the populaceaspirations and dreams to which voters can directly identify themselves to.
Through COMMUNITY ORGANIZING and CONSULTATIVE APPROACH on an indirect, sublime, yet high-impact ISSUE INTERCEPTION, we can create and develop a new Social, Politico-Economic, and EcologyDevelopment (SPEED) framework with the direct participation of communities. SPEED will serve as themaster plan of city development, endorsed and supported by men and women in the urban poor, youth,industrial, services, agriculture, and faith-based sections of the local economy.
The grass-root voters dreams and aspirations become Ramas own. They will find in Rama a clear reasonto cast their vote for. They become stakeholders, instead of being kibitzers and fence-sitters. Their quest
for solutions to their social and politico-economic needs form part of the Rama political agenda.
SPEED will serve as the sounding board or an instrumentality for re-echoing our key messages. This holdsthe key to a high-impact, less costly campaign. The how-tos are shown here under.
Reasons for ActionVoter perception tracking data from the US Embassy shows that MLR holds an edge against TRO in termsof incumbency (17.20 percentage points), charisma (6.45 p.p.), and character (3.87 p.p.).
These combined advantage of 0.2752, when weighed against an average voter turnout of 85 percent and
elector base of 522,476, shows a glimpse of the MLR potential in 143,785 votes. This project is meant tocapitalize on the factors fueling these existing perceptions, as illustrated below.
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As illustrated below, voter preference tracking data from the UK Embassy shows TROs strength inpopularity (18.44 percentage points), financial preparations (12.46 p.p.) and experience (6.91p.p).
If weighed against a voter turnout of 85 percent and 522,476 electors, this combination of factors pinpointwhere Tommys building blocks for support at 197,548 heads will be and where we should be usingresources to undermine certain initiatives.
Homestretch may run from 1.5% to as high as 4%, weighed against actual voter turnout on the day ofballoting. This translates to a winning range of 5,750 votes (baseline) to 15,335.
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PART I OBJECTIVES1.0 Build a Broad Multi-sector Base of Support2.0 Establish common ground with congressional and city councilor-candidates3.0 Empower Small Teams for Targeted Vote Conversions
FRAMEWORK Cost-effective, low-profile, high-impact, barangay level organizing
Target sectors: Urban, youth, stakeholders in industrial, services and farm cross-section, and faith-based groups
Duration: 14 months
Target: 526,476 individual voters in 192,760 households
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PART II STRATEGIESCommunity Relations, Communications, Coalition Building, Voter Conversion, Vote Delivery, VoteProtection
PART III TACTICSMethodology TrainingCommunity Organizing
Targeted Communications (Primary Messaging)Advocacy (Secondary Messaging)Agitation Propaganda (Tertiary Messaging)Radio Block timers
PR/Media Relations/Reputation ManagementBarangay-Level Consultative Planning WorkshopCitywide Conference on New Social, Politico-Economic, and Ecology Development (SPEED)MLR Adoption of SPEED FrameworkCouncilor-candidates using SPEED frameworkCongressional candidates adopting SPEED issue frameworkHiring Staff: 4 writers, 1 driver, 1 utility
PART IV KEY MESSAGESTogether We Can Make Things Happen (Person-to-Person)Rama Service with a Heart (General)A Vote for Rama, a Vote for Your Sector (Person-to-Group)A Vote for Rama, a Vote for Your Dreams (Person-to-Person)
PART V TOOLS6
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Messaging Kit #1: 8 PowerPoint presentations, each one 8 minutes long, illustrating an issue in SPEEDframeworkMessaging Kit #2: 32 graphic slides for Face Book deploymentMessaging Kit #3: 48 issue interception modules for radio block timers
Messaging Kit #4: 72 issue interception outlines for PR/media relationsMessaging Kit #5: 36 special speeches5 PC desk tops, 1 printer, wired to a LAN/WAN network with Internet Service Protocol provider8 lap tops, 8 LCD projectors, 1 service vehicle
VI IMPLEMENTATION SUMMARY
Descripti
on
Time
Line
UpdateSched
ule
Targeted Message Delivery Channels
Stor
yPitch
P
R
Pre
ssCon
M2
G
P2G
SPEED
Radi
oBlock
FB
+
MK #1 July12 toMay13
Dec15,2012
MK #2 Oct 12toMay
13
Feb 1,2013
MK #3 Oct 12toMay13
Jan 2,2013
MK #4 Jun 12toMay
Dec 1,2012
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13The Campaigns & Image Group (2012)
Seven-Step Implementation Flow
5
4
3
2
1
8
Strategy
Tactic
Launch
Adjust
Regroup
Convert Protec Deliver
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IMPLEMENTATION FLOW
PART VII ACTION PLANThis project will be implemented by Chief Strategist Leonardo Chiu and ABC.
The following models (as shown below) govern both functional organizational coordination at the policy,strategy and tactical levels of the campaign.
Entire plan takes into account the formulation of initiatives in community organizing, PR/media relations,community relations, coalition building, and radio-based propaganda programs.
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Stimu
M2G
P2O
P2G
P2S
Fine-
Refin
Refin
Refin
Review
Protection
Conversion
DeliverySystem
Regrou
Rama
Review
Regrou
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On the ground level, PROJECT MOON RAKER is operationally under the control and supervision of the ChiefStrategist, who reports directly to Mike Rama. The coordination flow between Media Relations, under theCampaign Manager, should be clear at this point (as was shown in the diagram).
Campaigns & Image Group (2012)
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Propaganda Management Model
The Campaigns & Image Group (2012)
Grass-root Platform Diversification:
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Mind
Emotion
s
Thinking
Heart Feelings
DecisionThought
s
Vote
StimulusImagery
Words
ChoicesPerceptions
Preferences
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The SPEARS Model
The Campaigns & Image Group (2012)
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Issue
Issue
Platform
Developm
Platform
Developm
Platform
Propagati
Platform
Propagati
Signature
Signature
Propaganda
Propaganda
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Vote Development, Protection and DeliveryModel
Type A: Family-based
Figure 1
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Father/Moth
Mother/Fat Son
SonDaugh
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Type B: Friendship-centered
Figure 2
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You
Frien
Frien
Friend Friend D
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Figure 4
Organizing Structure across Six Target Fields
DETAILS TO ACTION PLAN
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March 2012Recruit, train, organize, empower six (6) team leaders (first level)These team leaders, who will be recruited from among Ramas staff, will assist implementation of Project MoonRaker in the following sectors:
Industrial ServicesAgriculture/fisheryYouthUrban poorFaith-based (Roman Catholic and other Christian/Bible-based denominations)
LVC provides the operations center of the team, coordinates with MLR over staff assignments, procures equipmentand supplies, and facilitates funding.MLR keynotes the first team meeting. ABC will conduct the one-day briefing and training for the team. Theoperations and responsibility structures will be presented.
StoryPitch
es
MediaReleas
es
Household
Reached
New
Allies
TVCovera
ge
RamaSpeech
es
Press
Cons
MediaRelations
2 2 5,000 25 - 1
PublicRelations
2 2 5,000 25 - 1
CommunityRelations
2 - - 1 1 -
CoalitionBuilding
2 - - - 1 -
Radio 2 - - - - -
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Descriptio
n
Monthly Key Result Indicators
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PropagandaTOTAL 10 4 10,000 1 2 2
The Campaigns & Image Group (2012)
2nd Quarter 2012APRIL/MAY:Recruit, train, and empower six (6) coordinators in each district or 12 altogether (2nd level) inaccordance with the multi-sector targets stated beforehand;All six team leaders and 12 coordinators hold one-day team-building briefings, group dynamics, andtraining. Operating structure will be discussed.District-level coordinators will recruit six (6) men/women from six sectors from each barrio under theirAOR.
South District will have 204 representatives; North District, 276.The goal is to identify the key community development needs in each barrio, pinpoint a program-benefitratio, and create a central document to be called Socio-Political, Economic, and Environment Development(SPEED) plan. This will be the rallying poinht for all community organizing actions and emergence of 80duly registered peoples organizations.
JUNE:Deploy MK# 4 and Speeches #1/2/3/4 of MK#5
Organize and sponsor barrio-level SPEED workshops 480 in 80 villages (3rd
level). We will provide thehome venue, snacks, training supplies, and token cash allowance for each representative.Production of eight (8) PowerPoint presentations, each one 8 minutes long, illustrating an issue in SPEEDframeworkProduction of 32 graphic, issue-illustrative slides for Face Book deploymentProduction of 48 issue interception modules for radio block timersProduction of 72 issue interception outlines for PR/media relations
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StoryPitch
es
MediaReleas
es
Household
Reached
Individuals
Allies
TVCovera
ge
RamaSpeech
es
Press
Cons
MediaRelations
6 12 15,000 250 - 6
Public
Relations
6 - 15,000 250 - 6
CommunityRelations
6 12 - - 3 3 -
CoalitionBuilding
6 6 480 480 - 3 -
RadioPropaganda
6 6 5,000 5,000 - - -
TOTAL 30 36 35,480 5,980 3 6 12The Campaigns & Image Group (2012)
3rd Quarter 2012JULY:Consolidate all 80 SPEED proposals through a citywide conference of 480 representatives, 12coordinators, and six team leaders (Total heads: 498 heads). MLR will be keynote speaker. Snacks, lunch,
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Descriptio
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Monthly Key Result Indicators
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and token allowance will be provided. The adoption of the Cebu City SPEED plan will be the maindeliverable, on top of collective decision to organize 80 peoples organizations (PO).
Deploy MK#1 and Speeches #5/6/7/8 of MK#5
AUGUST:We will assist in the registration of 80 PO.MLR adopts SPEED as part of the campaign platform.Deployment of eight (8) PowerPoint presentations, each one 8 minutes long, illustrating an issue inSPEED framework We will initiate house-to-house propagation of the SPEED message and recruitment ofmembers who subscribe to our development platform;Deploy 48 issue interception modules for use by radio block timersDreams and aspirations of each barrio, in accordance with SPEED plan, will be propagated and/or
articulated in newspapers, radio, and TV issues in media, and in our own radio propaganda section.Deploy 72 issue interception outlines for PR/media relations
Ramas congressional and city council allies adopt SPEED. The SPEED issue framework integrated in tomessaging by councilor-aspirants.
SEPTEMBER:Increase the pace of SPEED team deployment through group presentations, for house-to-houseenumeration, sector-to-sector coordination, P2O educational initiative; consolidate community organizingusing the power of two.Maintain pace in deployment of MK2/MK3/MK4.
StoryPitch
MediaReleas
Household
Individuals
TVCovera
RamaSpeech
Press
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Descriptio
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Monthly Key Result Indicators
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es es Reached Reached ge es Cons
MediaRelations
6 12 15,000 250 - 6
PublicRelations 6 12 15,000 250 - 6
CommunityRelations
6 12 250 500 3 3 -
CoalitionBuilding
6 6 7,680 69,120 - 3 -
RadioPropaganda
6 6 5,000 5,000 - - -
TOTAL 30 48 42,930 75,210 3 6 12The Campaigns & Image Group (2012)
4th Quarter 2012Continue/maintain house-to-house issue and SPEED propagation, education, recruitment, and enumerationinitiative
OCTOBER:Deploy MK #3 and Speeches #9/10/11/12 of MK#5Barrio allies seek SANGGUNIANG BARANGAY funding for SPEED programs; this issue-baiting initiative is
meant to pick a fight with local leaders loyal to TRO and who dont subscribe to the SPEED framework. Allresistance and objections will be articulated in media and mass-based agitation in our propagandasections.
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NOVEMBER:One at a time our barrio SPEED allies formally write the CITY COUNCIL asking consideration and financialassistance for the implementation of programs. Exploit SP resistance in agitation propaganda, PR/mediaadvantage
DECEMBER:MLR discusses SPEED before targeted organizations and ask certain corporations to assist SPEED-identified NGOs in getting financial assistance through corporate social responsibility programs. Anyattempts by TRO to disparage the initiative will be articulated in our PR/media relations, communityrelations, coalition building, and propaganda initiatives.
Update MK #1 and Speeches #7 and #8 in MK#5 for the homestretch campaign
StoryPitch
es
MediaReleas
es
Household
Reached
Individuals
Reached
TVCovera
ge
RamaSpeech
es
Press
Cons
MediaRelations
6 12 15,000 250 - 6
PublicRelations
6 12 15,000 250 - 6
CommunityRelations
6 12 250 500 3 3 -
Coalition 6 6 30,720 122,88 - 3 -
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Descriptio
n
Monthly Key Result Indicators
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Building 0RadioPropaganda
6 6 25,000 75,000 - - -
TOTAL 30 48 85,970 198,88
0
3 6 12
The Campaigns & Image Group (2012)
1st Quarter 2013JANUARY:Update MK #3 for the homestretch campaignDelivery of Speeches #13/14/15/16 of MK#5MLR continues to seek corporate funding sponsors for SPEED projects via social responsibility.Barrio-level SPEED formally write letters to TRO and CDM asking for endorsement and financial help for theirprojects.Resistance, objections, bad comments against SPEED and its framework will be subject of our media releases,commentaries, letters to the editors, and discussions in our radio-based propaganda programs.
FEBRUARY:Update MK #1 for the homestretch campaign Delivery of Speeches #17/18/19/20/21 in MK#5Bring over senators and congressional candidates to address SPEED meetings; deploy additional radio block-timers (2nd round)
MARCH:Start house-to-house enumeration tactic (red and white chalk markings; refer to propaganda manual for details;continue block-timer initiatives
Delivery of Speeches #22/23/24/24/25 in MK#5
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First Quarter 2013
StoryPitch
es
MediaReleas
es
Household
Reached
Individuals
Reached
TVCovera
ge
RamaSpeech
es
Press
Cons
MediaRelations
6 24 5,000 250 - 6
PublicRelations
6 24 5,000 250 - 6
CommunityRelations
6 24 250 500 6 3 4
CoalitionBuilding
6 24 92,160 184,360
3 3 4
RadioPropaganda
6 24 5,000 50,000 - - -
TOTAL 30 120 107,410
235,360
9 6 20
The Campaigns & Image Group (2012)
April 2013Consolidate amplification of SPEED agenda in media, party causes, P2O presentations; use SPEEDinitiatives as propagandaCarry out Final Leg Enumeration Strategy using blue chalk.
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Descriptio
n
Monthly Key Result Indicators
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Prepare precinct-level vote conversion strategies and tactics Delivery of Speeches #26/27/28/29/30 in MK#5
April 2013 KRI
StoryPitch
es
MediaReleas
es
Household
Reached
Individuals
Reached
TVCovera
ge
RamaSpeech
es
Press
Cons
MediaRelations
2 24 5,000 250 - 6
PublicRelations
2 24 5,000 250 - 6
CommunityRelations
2 24 250 500 6 3 4
CoalitionBuilding
2 24 112,760
368,640
3 3 4
RadioPropaganda
2 24 5,000 25,000 - - -
TOTAL 10 120 * 394,640
9 6 20
The Campaigns & Image Group (2012)
May 2013String up SPEED groups for vote conversion
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Descriptio
n
Monthly Key Result Indicators
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Delivery of Speeches #31/32/33/34/36/36 in MK#5
May 2013 KRI
StoryPitch
es
MediaReleas
es
Household
Reached
PotentialAllies
TVCovera
ge
RamaSpeech
es
Press
Cons
Media
Relations
2 4 9,000 900 - 3
PublicRelations
2 4 4,500 450 - 3
CommunityRelations
2 4 250 500 4 3 2
CoalitionBuilding
2 2 115,000
221,000
2 3 2
RadioPropaganda
2 2 5,000 2,500 - - -
TOTAL 10 18 * 225,350
6 6 10
The Campaigns & Image Group
Special Guard-the-Vote Operations, including discreet actions to disrupt vote-buying actions by TRORefer to Project Weasel Brown Manual
VIII ESTIMATED BUDGET
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Descriptio
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Monthly Key Result Indicators
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ItemDescription
%wt
Estimated Cost TotalMar-Dec2012
Jan-May2013
Radio block timers 25 218,125 112,687.50 330,812
.50PR/media relations 16 139,600 72,120.0
0211,720
.00Volunteer StaffAllowances
20 174,500 90,150.00
264,650.00
Communication (e-Load)
10 87,250 45,075.00
132,325.00
Food 14 122,150 63,105.00
185,255.00
Gasoline 12 104,700 54,090.0
0
158,790
.00Office supplies 3 26,175 13,522.5
039,697
.50Total 10
0872,500 450,750.
001,323,250.00
The Campaigns & Image Group
COST-EFFICIENCY ASSUMPTIONSSince built-in city government resources and strategic assets are already in place, there will be asignificant reduction in out-of-pocket expenses.
Campaign goal: 225, 350 men and womenSpending from March 2012 to May 15, 2013: P5.87 per voter
IX AREAS OF CONSIDERATIONAverage voter turnout in last three elections has been 78%For May 2013, AVT of 407,531 is a close call.Not the best-case scenario yet
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Uncommitted votes: 86,316 or 21.18%A swing vote as large as thisa wide gapis crucial to both sides
The best-defensive-case scenarios for TRO:Line P500 for each of targeted 40,000 voters among urban poor and young voters, and spend P20 millionon Election DayGiving money to keep 40,000 of Ramas supporters at home for P25 millionHe did that once; he will do it again
Ramas best-offensive-case scenario:Raise voter turnout at the 88% threshold (459,778)Line up 52,247 more votes at no expense in Mikes favorDiminish TRO initiatives in the Services, Youth, and Agriculture sectorsForce TRO into costly defensive propaganda actions, stretching his financial rope to maximum limitsWork out special conversions in traditionally gray areas of the political economy (W4, U1, and YMW5)Disrupt vote-buying
X EXPECTED RESULTS Advantage #1: MLR is guided by an issue-based framework, which runs parallel to mainstream
campaign messaging
Advantage #2: By winning hearts and minds, Mike will be able to get win even if TRO spends P50million on Election Day.
Advantage #3: Rama creates and sustains the impression that he values other peoples ideas andinputs more than his own, thereby raising his acceptability and viability as a candidate.
Contested SectorsAcross AgeBrackets
Est.VoteMass
Theaters C/F HomestretchNORTH
SOUTH
MLR TRO
Services 41-60 163,01287,860
75,152
30/31 48,903 50,533
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Industrial 22-40 151,51081,669
69,841
32/28 48,483 42,422
Youth 19-21 53,12928,631
24,498
29/31 24,378 28,751
Agriculture 41-55 73,146
39,430
33,716
31/28 27,158 31,152
Others*UP/FBNRC/SC
81,67944,024
37,655
49/29 52,470 29,625
Total 522,476
281,614
240,862
38/34 201,392
182,483
Interpolated data from US/UK political sections (2012): Country Sheet for www.cia.gov, CIA World Fact Book (2012): AverageVoter Turnout at 78%;
Inner-core, Election-day Scenarios Voter turnout between 71% and 80% Losses from cross-candidate diffusion among councilor-candidates may hit 5% and may favor Rama
ticket (9/7)
TRO/MVO spending in South District may take some 4.53% to 5% off Ramas support lineup,affecting CUENCO
TRO spending in North District may affect MLR a little, if DAVIDE runs. If not, diffusion by 3% standslikely.
Homestretch may run from 1.5% to as high as 4%, weighed against actual voter turnout on the day
of balloting. This translates to a winning range of 5,750 votes (baseline) to 15,335.
Prepared By: Recommending Approval:ABBEY B. CANTURIAS LEONARDO V.
CHIU
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Approved:
MICHAEL L. RAMA
Conceive. Believe. Achieve
[email protected]: canturias8811; Mobile: +63 918 619 0440Landline: +6332 417 7559
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mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]