Download - Uncertainty in Climate Change Projections: Results from Different GCMs/RCMs in the Context of Nepal
Pabitra GurungPhD Student
Natural Resources and Environmental Studies (NRES)
University of Northern British Columbia
Curious to Know?
What are the potential sources of uncertainty?
Is it due to Model resolution?
Is physics missing for such discrepancies?
Is it a problem to capture monsoon well?
Is this a common problem of the world? What is a
scenario in Canada?
What can be done to improve the climate model to fit into
the Himalayan regions?
Is there any improvement in IPCC AR5 that can address
the orographic effects of the mountain?
Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region
“Slope and Aspect”
Source: Google Earth
How can we say climate is changing in the
region?
Snow and Glacier Retreat
Shifting of Agro-ecological Zones
Drying up Spring Water Sources and Migration
Source: From my own experiences and various studies
Climate Data Portal: http://dhm.gov.np/dpc
Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM)
Projected Climate Data of Nepal
RCM Climate
Variable
Data Period GCM SRES
Family
Resolution Source
PRECIS
Rainfall (mm),
Temperature (⁰C)
(Min and Max),
Relative Humidity,
Wind Speed,
Solar Radiation, &
Other
1970-2000 (Baseline),
2030-2060 (Projected)
HadCM3Q0,
ECHAM5A1B 20 km
DHM
RegCM4
1960-1990 (Baseline),
2030-2060 (Projected)
ECHAM4 A2
20 km
ECHAM5 A1B
WRF
1970-2000 (Baseline)
2030-2060 (Projected)
Era40,
CCSM3,
ECHAM5,
GFDL-V2,
HadCM3
A1B 12 km
Source: ADB/DHM/ADPC
Projected Mean Annual Climatic Variables
3 RCMs (WRF, RegCM4 and PRECIS) for all
scenarios from A1B….
grey lines: HadCM3Q0, ECHAM05, CCSM3, GFDL-V2, and HadCM3…
mean as black line representing scenario A1B … ...
red line represents scenario A2: ECHAM04…..
Precipitation Maximum Temperature
Minimum Temperature
Source: ADB/DHM/ADPC
Change of Annual Mean Precipitation
(mm)
(2030-2060)
Source: ADB/DHM/ADPC
Change of Annual Mean Maximum Daily
Temperature ( C)
(2030-2060)
Source: ADB/DHM/ADPC
Change of Annual Mean Minimum Daily
Temperature ( C)
(2030-2060)
Source: ADB/DHM/ADPC
Change in Monsoon (JJAS) Rainfall
WRF-ECHAM5 WRF-GFDL-V2 WRF-HADCM3
PRECIS-HadCM3Q0 RegCM4-ECHAM5 WRF-CCSM3
SRES Family – A1B
Source: IWMI
Change in Monsoon (JJAS) Max. Temperature
WRF-ECHAM5 WRF-GFDL-V2 WRF-HADCM3
PRECIS-HadCM3Q0 RegCM4-ECHAM5 WRF-CCSM3
SRES Family – A1B
Source: IWMI
Example of Hydrological Modeling: West Seti River Sub-basin of Nepal
- Located at Far Western Region of Nepal
- Catchment Area: 7,438 km2
- Elevation : 314 m to 7043 m (2505 m)
- Annual Rainfall: 1921 mm
- > 75 % Rainfall occurs only in monsoon Source: IWMI
Agro-Hydrological Model: Soil Water Assessment Tool
(SWAT)
Source: SWAT Document
Precipitation (2031-2060)
Percentage Change in Water Balance
(-13% to
+40%)(+6% to
+45%)
(-36% to
0%)
(-19% to
+25%)
Actual ET (2031-2060)
(-39% to
+122%)(-29% to
+108%)
(-30% to
+75%)
(-42% to
+50%)
Sou
rce:
IW
MI
Percentage Change in Water Balance
Total Flow Volume (2031-2060)
(-74% to
+736%)(-94% to
+714%)
(-96% to
+475%)(-67% to
+939%)
Net Water Yield (2031-2060)
(-68% to
+64%)(-68% to
+66%)
(-80% to
+15%)(-76% to
+22%)
Sou
rce:
IW
MI
Thank you !!!
Acknowledgement
Dr. Luna BharatiSenior Researcher
International Water Management Institute (IMWI)
Dr. Stephen DeryAssociate Professor
University of Northern British Columbia (UNBC)
Climate Science Informal Seminar (CSIS)University of Northern British Columbia (UNBC)
Potential Issues to Discuss?
What are the potential sources of uncertainty?
Is it due to Model resolution?
Is physics missing for such discrepancies?
Is it a problem to capture monsoon well?
Is this a common problem of the world? What is a
scenario in Canada?
What can be done to improve the climate model to fit into
the Himalayan regions?
Is there any improvement in IPCC AR5 that can address
the orographic effects of the mountain?