![Page 1: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines
Ian Duncan
Bureau of Economic Geology
University of Texas
![Page 2: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
What do the Newspapers Say about Risks of Natural Gas Pipelines?
USA Today, 2000
“pipelines are time bombs” and that “2 million miles of
them deliver potential catastrophe everyday”.
USA Today, 2011
“A fiery natural gas explosion in Allentown, Pa., is the
latest in a series of deadly accidents that have raised
worries about a form of energy that had a good safety
record until recently”.
![Page 3: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Transmission Pipeline ExplosionSan Bruno, California
![Page 5: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
The Scene after the San Bruno Event
![Page 6: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
What is Risk?
![Page 7: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Risk = Likelihood x Consequences
![Page 8: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Lets talk about individual risks that we face:
Why don’t we all live in concrete bunkers?
![Page 9: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
At what risk level do we loose interest?
• Risk of something falling from sky and killing us is 10-9
• Risk of death from the sky within 2 Km of an airport is 10-8
• But we don’t live in concrete bunkers so most of us are not concerned about risks at this level…
![Page 10: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Is it safe?
“because nothing can be absolutely free of risk, nothing can be said to be absolutely safe”
Lowrance (1976)
![Page 11: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
“A thing is safe if its risks are judged to be acceptable.”
Lowrance (1976)
![Page 12: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
“establishing acceptable levels of risk, particularly for those in proximity to a pipeline, will always be a difficult task.”
Williams (2012)… Report to Parliament of Canada
![Page 13: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Lets Talk some more about the
Nature of Risk
![Page 14: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
EXAMPLES OF INDIVUAL RISKS:
North Sea offshore oil and gas production
1 in 1000 or 1 x 10-3 per year. Equivalent to a rate of just above 30 fatal accidents per 108
exposure hours.
Mountain climbing: risk of 10-3 per year
Driving an automobile: risk of 1 x 10-4 per year
Flying: risk of 5 x 10-5 per year.
![Page 15: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
UK HSE Acceptable Risk
![Page 16: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Lets look at some Real Information on Pipeline Incident
Rates from DOT
![Page 17: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
US Natural Gas Pipeline Data
Gathering pipelines
Transmission pipelines
Distribution pipelines
Over 200,000 miles (321,868 kilometers) of gas gathering and transmission pipelines
![Page 18: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Risks …Natural Gas Pipelines
![Page 19: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Natural Gas Transmission Pipeline Incidents
![Page 20: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Fatality and Injury RatesNatural Gas Transmission Pipelines
![Page 21: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Injury + Fatality Rates versus
Number of Significant Incidents
![Page 22: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
If Incident Rates do not Correlate
with Fatalities… what are they
Correlated with?
![Page 23: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Serious Incident Rate versus Gas Price
![Page 24: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
What Role does Pipeline Age Play in Risk?
• Previous studies have focused on incident rates
• Two major reports in last 5 years concluded no relationship between risk and pipeline age
![Page 25: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Injury and Fatality Rate Versus NG Pipeline Age
![Page 26: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Public versus Non-Public Risks
Public fatality risk = 7.2 x 10-7
Non-Public fatality risk = 4.8 x 10-7
![Page 27: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age
![Page 28: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure
![Page 29: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Volume Oil Leaked V. Pipe Diameter
![Page 30: Understanding Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines Risks of Natural Gas and Oil Pipelines ... Oil Pipeline Incident Rate V. Pipeline Age. Causes for Oil Pipeline Failure](https://reader033.vdocuments.net/reader033/viewer/2022050917/5ae518df7f8b9a7b218f4072/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Final thought…
For pipelines, dams, for earthquake safety, for unconventional natural gas development etc.
….. how safe do we want it to be and are we prepared to pay the cost?