FO CUS:
URBANISATION
N E W S L E T T E R O F T H E I N T E R N A T I O N A L H U M A N D I M E N S I O N S P R O G R A M M E O N G L O B A L E N V I R O N M E N T A L C H A N G EUPDATEIH
DP
03/2002
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I H D P U p d a t e i s p u b l i s h e d b y t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l H u m a n D i m e n s i o n s P r o g r a m m e o n G l o b a l E n v i r o m e n t a l C h a n g e ( I H D P ) , Wa l t e r - F l e x - S t r. 3 , 5 3 1 1 3 B o n n , G e r m a n y, V. i . S . d . P. : E l i s a b e t h D y c k
1 Cities and Global EnvironmentalChange | R. Sanchez-Rodriguez
4 Cities, Water and GlobalEnvironmental Change |C. Cocklin
6 Cities: Are They Good for Health?| B. Caldwell, T. McMichael
8 Sustainability of Asia’s Mega-Cities | S. Dhakal, S. Kaneko,H. Imura
11 The Athens Heat Island |M. Santamouris
12 Masthead
13 A Human Face for Prague’sSuburbs? | L. Kupková
14 Risk and Vulnerability inDeveloping Countries | E. LópezGranados, G. Bocco
15 Unsustainable DesertSettlements in Egypt | A.SaadShalaby
16 Eco-capital and its Services inUrbanisation | Dan Hu
17 International Human DimensionsWorkshop 2002 | M. Thiem,V. Schulz
18 Core Projects:IDGEC SSC Convenes in Bali |S. A. Ebbin
19 National Committees:An Indian Experience |P.S. Ramakrishnan
20 Surviving the Third Millennium |E. Dyck
21 In Brief, Meeting Calendar
22 Publications
23 Onward and UpwardInterview with IHDP Executive Director Jill Jäger
24 Contact addresses
➤ Cities are complex and dynamic systems that reproduce the interactions betweensocio-economic and environmental processes at a local and global scale. It is estimat-
ed that more than half of the world’s population, ca.3.3 billion people, live in urban
areas. More than 90 percent of future population growth will be concentrated in cities
in developing countries and a large percentage of this population will be poor. Cities
are also driving forces in economic growth. The World Bank estimates that in the
developing world, as much as 80 percent of future economic growth will occur in
cities. They are also the locus of a diversity of environmental problems with severe
local and global negative consequences that potentially affect millions of people.
Despite their importance for economic growth, social well-being and the sustain-
ability of present and future generations, cities have not received the level of attention
they require in the study of global environmental change (GEC). Attention has con-
centrated so far mainly on megacities and their role in the emission of greenhouse
gases. Although this is clearly an important topic for the GEC agenda, there are other
relevant issues. Particularly critical is the study of the impacts of GEC on cities, and
medium-sized and small cities must also be included in the research agenda.
The path of urbanisation mentioned above makes these issues critical for the pres-
ent and future well-being of millions of people in developing and developed countries.
The number and extent of recent climate-related natural disasters in cities illustrate
the devastating consequences of some of those impacts. But disasters represent only
CITIES AND GLOBAL
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEChallenges and Opportunities for a Human Dimension Perspective |
BY ROBERTO SANCHEZ-RODRIGUEZ
C O N T E N T S
➤ continued on page 2
some of the topics that need to be addressed. GEC in cities
covers a diverse and broad range of issues. Cities are a major
source for changes in land use and land cover, since they are
major users of energy, natural resources and food. The socio-
economic characteristics and functions of cities are also
affected by climate variability and a diversity of other issues
on the GEC agenda.
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
The biggest challenge for a broader GEC perspective on
cities is the creation of new conceptual frameworks and
methodologies to study these issues. The growing recogni-
tion that disciplinary approaches create only fragmented
perspectives of reality is fostering the creation of multidisci-
plinary and interdisciplinary approaches to the study of the
environment and
society interactions,
including GEC.
Concepts like sus-
tainable develop-
ment have sought to
create multidimen-
sional approaches as
a way to define new
paths for increased
societal well-being
based on the protec-
tion of the environ-
ment and intra- and
inter-generational
equity. Unfor-
tunately, the concept
has not been able to
create those multi-
d i m e n s i o n a l
approaches, and it
has had little attach-
ment to specific
realities that could transform it into concrete policies and
programmes. The study of global environmental issues faces
a similar challenge. Attention should be given not only to
each of the dimensions involved in global environmental
issues and the interactions among them, but also how those
dimensions and their interactions affect concrete social real-
ities at different scales, from the local to the global.
Cities offer a unique set of opportunities to advance the
creation of new conceptual frameworks for GEC research.
Cities have been studied from a diversity of perspectives. The
long tradition of urban studies has produced significant
knowledge about the social, economic, political and envi-
ronmental dimensions of urban issues. Contributions from
the social sciences (urban sociology, urban economics,
urban politics, and urban geography) are significantly larger
than in other topics of the GEC agenda. The study of urban
climate, landscape ecology and engineering provide a differ-
ent set of contributions from other disciplines. Urban man-
agement and planning have added practical approaches to
the management of physical aspects of urban growth.
Missing so far is the integration of these dimensions. Despite
C I T I E S A N D G E C
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urbanisation
Uncontrolled urban growth frequentlyhappens in risk prone areas.
This issue of UPDATE focusses on the topic of urbanisa-
tion. The articles provide clear evidence of the wide
range of human dimensions issues raised by considera-
tion of human-environment interactions in relation to
cities. Over the past two years, the IHDP Scientific
Committee (SC) has debated whether more emphasis
should be placed on the topic of urbanisation within
IHDP. The topic is already taken up by the IHDP core
projects and is entering the agendas of the joint projects.
However, in view of the expected rate of urbanisation
and the challenges it poses for sustainable development,
perhaps the topic deserves even more attention by the
human dimensions research community. The SC sug-
gested that a »scoping activity« should be carried out
and be discussed at the SC meeting in 2003. Part of that
scoping activity was the International Human
Dimensions Workshop (IHDW) held in Königswinter,
near Bonn, in June 2002. This issue of UPDATE includes
articles by the organisers, speakers and participants of
that workshop, as well as other scholars addressing
important areas of research related to urbanisation. I
would encourage all of our readers who are interested in
pursuing these issues further to look at the website of
the workshop (www.ihdw2002.de), which will be
updated with the papers of the participants when they
are available.
The capacity building activities of IHDP have been very
important. We are proud that participants from the
1998 and 2000 workshops were accepted for sessions at
the Open Meetings of the Human Dimensions Research
Community and look forward to welcoming partici-
pants from all of the workshops at the Open Meeting to
be held October 14 – 16, 2003 in Montreal, Canada. A
further success with respect to capacity building is
reflected in the reports produced through our »Seed
Grant Initiative«, indicating »Who is Doing What?« in
human dimensions research in developing countries and
countries with economies in transition. The first volume
of reports was published in 2001; a second volume is
now in press (see the IHDP website for further details).
My term as Executive Director IHDP will soon come to an
end. I will leave the Secretariat after more than three
years of very hard work secure in the knowledge that the
financial basis of the Secretariat is stable (but not rosy),
that the Secretariat staff is doing a great job of initiating
and co-ordinating research, providing an essential con-
tribution for capacity building and a node for networks
of human dimensions researchers. The IHDP website
and newsletter have become major elements in our com-
munications activities. Without the incredible support
of all of the Secretariat staff, IHDP would not have
made such enormous progress.
Thanks and Goodbye,
JILL JÄGER
IHDP Executive Director
E D I T O R I A L
➤
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the achievements mentioned above, urban
studies have created fragmented perspectives
of complex realities. Efforts to create an inte-
grated perspective under urban planning
have been reduced to technical approaches
focusing solely on the physical aspects of
urban growth.
The study of GEC can take advantage of a
broad base of disciplinary knowledge that
facilitates the creation of new interdiscipli-
nary and multidisciplinary perspectives.
Particularly critical is a better understanding
of the interactions among the social, eco-
nomic, political and environmental dimen-
sions. In the case of cities, these interactions
take place in a small territory, and they are
rapidly influenced or impacted by national,
regional and global social and environmental
processes. Efforts in this direction, such as the integrated
assessment approach, are likely to make significant contribu-
tions in the near future. However, it is also worth consider-
ing contributions from other approaches.
Suitable for the study of GEC in cities is the concept of
vulnerability. Contributions in this direction focus on social
processes and historical social relations in an effort to under-
stand the underlying causes of vulnerability (1,2,3,4). Under
this approach, vulnerability has two principal components:
an external source of stress or shock and an internal compo-
nent addressing the social relationships that shape an indi-
vidual’s or group’s exposure and capacity to respond to and
cope with the damaging consequences of the external stress.
The »vulnerability approach« creates a multidimensional
framework that pays attention to the economic, social, envi-
ronmental dimensions, as well as the interactions among
them. The analysis incorporates the interactions among
these dimensions at different scales, from the local to the
global. The external stress is often associated with the envi-
ronment, e.g., extreme events related to climate variability
and climate change. The internal component illustrates the
range of social processes that contribute to understanding
the consequences of environmental change for diverse social
groups and individuals.
The study of GEC in cities also offers opportunities to
bridge between scientific research and decision-making.
These opportunities are created by the array of internation-
al initiatives designed to support improvements in urban
management. These initiatives create close links with local
decision-makers, and they are dedicated to sharing and
applying the lessons learned from innovative practice. For
example, the UN Center for Human Settlements (Habitat)
sponsors a global network of capacity building organizations
seeking to build awareness of proven solutions and demon-
strates experience and innovative strategies for policy and
decision-making at all levels. Habitat’s programme includes
a series of components that provide guidance to local and
national decision makers (Habitat’s agenda, Agenda 21, State
of the World’s Cities Report, Urban Indicators Program, and
Global Urban Observatory, the Best Practices and
Leadership Program). It also monitors global trends in sus-
tainable urban development and evaluates progress in the
implementation of the Habitat Agenda and Agenda 21. An
analysis of the content of these programmes shows an array
of information useful for improvements in urban manage-
ment but with little attention or reference to GEC.
Incorporating research results of GEC into these pro-
grammes provides a unique opportunity to link scientific
research with stakeholders as end users of this knowledge.
These programmes work through a decentralised network of
partners including government agencies, local authorities,
civic organisations, professional organisations and academic
institutions. The World Association of Cities and Local
Authorities, the International Union of Local Authorities
and other parallel international efforts offer similar oppor-
tunities.
Cities offer the unique opportunity of reaching out to a
large number of local and national officials and other stake-
holders making decisions that affect or are affected by GEC.
This linkage is critical in transforming scientific results of
GEC research into goals, policies, programmes and actions.
It might also prove important for the success of the develop-
ment of the new Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) of
the international global environmental change programmes
(IGBP, IHDP, WCRP and DIVERSITAS) seeking to create an
integrated perspective of GEC. But most important, it cre-
ates new opportunities for sustainability for the present and
future generations.
REFERENCES to this article are included on the IHDP
website at www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm
ROBERTO SANCHEZ-RODRIGUEZ is a Professor at the
Department of Environmental Studies, University of
California, Santa Cruz, USA; he is a member of the IHDP
Scientific Committee and was the scientific leader of the
International Human Dimensions Workshop 2002;
[email protected]; www.ucsd.edu
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urbanisation
Urbanisation in developing countries is a mosaic of contrastsbetween the rich and poor, the legal and illegal.
➤
➤
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➤ The relationship between cities and water is at once vitaland at the same time uneasy. As a basic necessity of life,
urban dwellers cannot do without drinking water. But water
is also a cleanser, an essential resource for industry, a medi-
um for transportation, a repository for wastes, and a compo-
nent of ecological processes on which life depends. The
uneasiness arises because the relationship between people
and water is in a tenuous state. In the context of an increas-
ing world population and the seemingly inexorable process
of urbanisation, many are predicting a global water crisis.
According to the UNEP Global Environmental Outlook 2000
report, »Water security, like food security, will become a
major national and regional priority in many areas of the
world in the years to come« (p. xxii).
Vulnerability is widely represented in terms of inadequate
supplies of potable water, inadequate sanitation, and expo-
sure to waterborne diseases. Water poses a threat to people
through the hazards of flooding and inundation, and as a
potential contributor to land instability. These material
aspects of water constitute what we refer to as the biophysi-
cal dimension of water-related vulnerability (Fig. 1). The
social dimension arises from the differentiated exposure and
the variable ability to cope with these vulnerabilities.
Differential vulnerabilities exist within cities, between cities
and across nations. The poor have less access to adequate
sanitation and are often forced to live in areas exposed to
high levels of water pollution. Estimates suggest that 20 per-
cent of the world’s population already lacks access to safe
drinking water, and 50 percent of the population do not have
access to adequate sanitation. Contaminated water and
standing water that provides a habitat for mosquitoes pose
serious threats to human health. Children are amongst the
most vulnerable to the health-related effects.
The other element of social vulnerability relates to the
ability to cope. Lack of financial resources, institutional fail-
ures, and inadequate infrastructure that characterise so
many cities in developing countries imply that they are far
less able to deal with water-related problems than cities in
the West. While significant improvements in economic and
material well-being were a corollary of urbanisation in the
West, this has not been the case in developing nations. In
1987, the Brundtland Report, Our Common Future, observed
that cities in the developing world were on the verge of a cri-
sis, due to their inability to supply basic infrastructure and
services, including clean water and sanitation.
Within cities, the disempowerment of the poor severely
curtails their capacity to cope with vulnerabilities associated
with water. The fact that water degradation and scarcity dis-
proportionately affect the world’s poor and underprivileged
has therefore rightly been a recurrent theme in the analysis
of exposure to water-related problems. At a conference of
seven of the world’s poorest nations in June 2000 (the P7
Summit), delegates called for water to be treated as a funda-
mental human right, not as a market commodity.
CITIES, WATER AND GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGEGovernance, water use and infrastructure as a remedy for water issues in cities | BY CHRIS COCKLIN
C I T I E S , W A T E R A N D G E Curbanisation
Fig. 1. Global environmental change and water-related vulnerability
4 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2
Global Environmental
Change• Urbanisation
• Climate change• Economic transformation
• Land use change
Biophysical Vulnerability• Water quality• Water supply
• Water-related natural hazards
Socio-economic Vulnerability• Institutional capacity
• Social capacity• Economic capacity
SensitivityExposure
Coping
The relationship between cities and water connects intri-
cately to global environmental change. Cities are significant
drivers of global change processes (e.g., climate change,
land-use/cover change or changes in the hydrological cycle).
Clearing of forests in the hinterlands of cities can have sig-
nificant effects on hydrological regimes. Soil infiltration
rates and surface and sub-surface flows are affected by the
removal of vegetation. The possible effects include changes
in water supply, increased risk of flooding and land instabil-
ity. Forest clearing in water catchments is believed to pose
threats to human health due to effects on water quality.
Alterations in precipitation patterns are a predicted con-
sequence of human-induced changes in climate. Increased
temperatures will have impacts on the demands for water for
drinking, cooling, and watering. Forecasts show that climate
change will increase the frequency and severity of storms in
some parts of the world, and associated increases in precipi-
tation (intensity, duration and quantity) will exacerbate the
flood risk. Climate change might also have direct effects on
the adequacy of water supply, due to reduced precipitation.
For Australia, the world’s driest inhabited continent, recent
predictions indicate less precipitation in some parts of the
country, which would affect major urban centres. Australian
cities already have one of the highest per capita water storage
levels in the world, yet they still experience shortages during
protracted dry periods. The vulnerability to water shortages
in this highly urbanised society is likely to increase as a con-
sequence of climate change. While this is serious in its own
right, Australians have the economic, infrastructural and
societal capacity to cope. The same cannot be said of many
developing nations, and some will face increasing problems
of water supply as a result of climate change.
What can be done to reduce the water-related vulnerabil-
ity of cities and improve the security of their inhabitants?
Three closely interlinked realms of intervention that hold
the promise of improved human security in relation to water
may provide an answer.
Governance: Important issues include property rights,
the management and control of water (public or private),
institutional arrangements and the degree of integration of
economic, social, environmental and infrastructural plan-
ning. In many jurisdictions water is poorly managed and
administered. In the public sector, responsibilities for water
infrastructure, bulk water supply, supply to users, treatment
and disposal are often divided amongst several agencies.
Privatising water has often led to unhappy results. Property
rights are poorly specified in many cases, leading to conflicts
between cities and their rural hinterlands over entitlements
to water.
At a general level, then: i) institutional structures relating
to water supply and management should be simplified, with
clear responsibilities and a transparency of operations and
processes; ii) the privatisation of water has questionable net
social benefits in any context and is almost certainly inap-
propriate in most developing nations; iii) property rights
associated with water need to be clearly specified; iv) com-
munities should be involved in decisions relating to water; v)
for developing nations, capacity building is required in terms
of governance and planning; vi) development planning
should be integrated and strategic, to ensure that infrastruc-
tural and service needs are commensurate with population
and economic growth, and adequate provision is made for
human health and welfare.
Use: Like many natural resources, water has been used
profligately, because we have assumed it is in abundant sup-
ply. Consequently, much of it is simply wasted or allocated
inappropriately. The straightforward answer is improved
efficiencies in use, re-use, conservation, and allocation to
higher valued uses, but the means to achieve these outcomes
are not as clear. Improved demand management is the cen-
tral issue. In some western nations, economic instruments
have proven effective in moderating demand and shifting
water use away from low-value uses. However, there is an
equity effect when water, a basic necessity, is priced, and so
the moral and ethical legitimacy of pricing as a demand
management tool comes into question. In such situations,
information exchange, community-based approaches, and
prescribed allocations are likely to be more appropriate
interventions.
Infrastructure: Inadequate infrastructure affects the effi-
ciency of water supply and contributes to the risks to human
health and the environment through poor sanitation. The
vulnerability to natural hazards, such as flooding, is partly
determined by the characteristics of urban built infrastruc-
ture. Better transportation and storage of water, improved
technological design (which can be as simple as dual-flush
toilets), upgraded treatment facilities, and better urban
design to minimise risks of inundation are required. In some
contexts, particularly in developed nations, the strategies to
achieve these outcomes are apparent: pricing, planning reg-
ulations, development levies, etc. In the cash-strapped
economies of the developing world, where the vulnerabilities
are greatest, the outcomes are less easily achieved and require
substantial investments of aid money to improve the infra-
structure. It is a sad indictment on our priority-setting that
western nations are seemingly prepared to expend vast,
indeed almost unlimited, amounts of money on armaments
and defence, when a fraction of the same expenditure would
ensure adequate supplies of potable water and sanitation for
the world’s population.
Attention to governance, use and infrastructure would
help to remedy many of the existing issues of water in cities.
At the same time, it would help to mitigate the effects of
global environmental change on water resources in the con-
text of an urbanising world. From a policy perspective, it is
important to bear in mind that there are no universal solu-
tions. What has worked in terms of improved water resource
management in developed nations may not work in the con-
text of cities in developing countries and, indeed, may have
unacceptable moral and ethical repercussions.
CHRIS COCKLIN is Director of the Monash Environment
Institute, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; he is
also a member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the
IHDP Project on Global Environmental Change and
Security (GECHS) and was a lecturer at the IHDW 2002;
www.mei.monash.edu.au/
C I T I E S , W A T E R A N D G E C
I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 5
urbanisation
➤
➤ City living is one of the characteristics of modern life.An increasing proportion of humanity either lives in cities or
lives outside but in societies that are urban focussed. Cities
are not new – the term civilisation itself refers to living in
cities – but the dominance of cities as the major mode of liv-
ing is much more recent. In the developed world urbanisa-
tion is a phenomenon of the 19th and early 20th centuries;
in the developing world it is still incomplete with rapid
urban growth commencing in the late twentieth century and
unlikely to finish before its end. Increasingly, then, the
nature of urban living is critical to human health.
CITIES AND THE BENEFITS OF PUBLIC HEALTH
Historically, cities were associated with exceptionally
poor health: until the late 19th century cities were charac-
terised by death rates that exceeded the generally high birth
rates – urban populations were maintained only by continu-
ous rural-urban migration. The cities were notorious for
overcrowding and poor sanitation, as images of Dickensian
London bring to mind. Infectious disease was rife, with huge
death rates from e.g., pneumonia, tuberculosis and even the
plague. As a result, in the late 19th century cities led the
world in movements to improve public health (1).
The situation changed radically in the 20th century. Cities
in the developed world and, to a lesser extent, in the devel-
oping world became noted for their exceptional public serv-
ices and facilities. They were the places where the best hospi-
tals were to be found, and, in a sharp reversal of the earlier
situation, the safest drinking water, the best sanitation, and,
following slum removal programs, the best housing. As a
result, measures of health including life expectancy are gen-
erally better in urban than rural areas. This has been espe-
cially true in the developing world where cities, despite often
appalling living conditions, have been comparatively privi-
leged islands of good health facilities and other public serv-
ices, surrounded by rural neglect.
FUTURE HEALTH CONCERNS
This situation might seem to suggest that the current on-
going urbanisation will result in improved health, but the
situation is more complex than that. Especially in the devel-
oping world many of the factors that made cities relatively
healthy are diminishing, while their disadvantages in both
the developing and the developed world may be increasing.
Simultaneously, cities may have a longer-term and global
effect on the sustainability of good health.
In part, because of their very growth, cities in the devel-
oping world are losing some aspects of their erstwhile privi-
leged status. Rapid urban growth in developing countries
has led to health and social services being stretched. This is
partly offset by the implementation of the ‘user pays’ princi-
ple, but this aggravates the health problems. Hospitals, once
catering to small urban populations, are now overcrowded
and inadequate. Water and sewerage services once effective-
ly providing for much smaller towns, now provide inade-
quate services for limited parts of large cities, usually the bet-
ter-off areas most able to pay for the services. Illegal settle-
ments, in which many of the poor live, rarely receive any
such services because this is seen as adding to the illegality of
the situation.
With the growth of the cities urban populations have
become much more unequal. Cities no longer consist of a
small, non-rural elite but increasingly of a broad mass of
people attracted by the city. The poor characteristically live
in settlements marked by an unhealthy environment and
overcrowded housing. In the worse situations, those settle-
ments are illegal and receive few if any municipal services
such as water, sanitation, and rubbish collection. Not sur-
prisingly, they are prone to high rates of infectious diseases
such as pneumonia, tuberculosis and diarrhoea.
CHANGING SOCIAL BEHAVIOUR
City life also impacts on health in other ways. In the
cities, traditional controls on social behaviour are lessened
or even absent. This can provide new opportunities for peo-
ple, but it can also lead to dangers. Cities often have high lev-
els of violence. Traditional institutions that protected the
people against crime and violence are weak, while in many
developing cities legal and policing institutions are poorly
developed. In some cities criminal gangs provide young
men, with few skills or contacts, a substitute for family rela-
tions and a way of prospering in an alien environment.
Gender violence is an issue where women are encouraged or
forced out of traditional family roles, but traditional atti-
tudes to women remain unchanged. This is particularly so
where families are in a weak position to protect daughters
from strangers and even from abusive husbands.
Sexual diseases, including HIV/AIDS, often associated
with high levels of commercial sex, are commonly found in
cities. Recorded HIV levels in Eastern and Southern Africa
are typically higher in the towns and cities. Rates of infec-
tious diseases or deaths from infectious diseases have gener-
ally not worsened in the cities, though HIV is increasingly
the exception. Public health measures, such as better immu-
nisation coverage have prevented this, but, arguably, com-
munity health has not improved as much as it should have.
Along with increased urban differentiation, there has been a
shift in many countries towards private medicine. This is
occurring partly for ideological reasons and partly as a result
of the inability of the public health system to meet the costs
required to provide for the increasing demand. It also
reflects a lessening concern among the elite for the health of
the poor. In the past, the elite was more likely to support
public health measures among the urban poor to lessen the
CITIES: ARE THEY GOOD FOR HEALTH?The implications of continuing urbanisation for human well-being | BY BRUCE CALDWELL AND
TONY MCMICHAEL
C I T I E S A N D H E A L T H
6 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2
urbanisation
risk of contagion for itself. Now health advances such as bet-
ter immunisation and antibiotics mean that they are less at
risk.
ATMOSPHERIC POLLUTION
A problem of cities everywhere is that of chemical pollu-
tion, arising from the concentration of industry and increas-
ing dependence on cars for transport. Cities are not only
major producers of chemical pollution, but, by concentrat-
ing large numbers of people, they increase the number of
people at risk. The pollution that is produced in the cities
and by power stations for cities, adds to the problem. The
fumes include greenhouse gases, which, by adding to global
warming, have major long-term consequences for global
health by extending conditions favourable to the spread of
such diseases as malaria, dengue and diarrhoeal infections
(2).
City populations are associated with an increasing world-
wide ‘epidemic’ of obesity. Urban-dwellers are more likely to
be affluent, have sedentary occupations, and use motorized
transport. Cities lack space for sporting activities, while
offering alternative non-physical recreational activities that
effectively discourage exercise.
DHAKA
The issues concerning cities and health are brought out in
a particularly stark form by Dhaka, the capital of
Bangladesh. Dhaka
is one of the fastest
growing cities in the
world, having
increased from
300,000 inhabitants
some 50 years ago to
around 13 million
today (3). It has been
transformed from a
largely administra-
tive town to a com-
plex metropolis with
a huge socio-eco-
nomic gradient from
a very wealthy elite
to a vast, poor, urban
population, with
many recent rural
migrants. The poor-
est live in squatter
settlements known as bastes (or bosties), with the destitute
living on the streets of the main city as pavement-dwellers.
Those who migrate are economically better off than their
rural counterparts. In health terms the evidence is more
mixed, despite the fact that Bangladesh’s medical and health
facilities and expertise are concentrated in Dhaka. The
under-5-years mortality rates (U5MR), though declining, is
only marginally better in urban Bangladesh (96.7 in 1999-
2000) than in rural Bangladesh (112.6), a differential that is
diminishing (in 1993-1994 U5MR was 114.3 in urban areas
and 153.2 in rural areas). Among the urban poor it is almost
certainly worse. In a recent survey U5MR was estimated to
be 165 in the bosties and 115 in non-bostie slums (4). The
figures are much higher among the extreme poor.
Malnutrition is a problem; a high proportion of the very
poor have been short of food in the recent past. The very
poor live in an impoverished environment, in extremely
poor and overcrowded housing. In the bosties few house-
holds have access to piped water, most having to share wells.
A high proportion of the population relies upon inadequate
sanitation, including open latrines or no latrines at all. In
cases where households do have access to sanitary latrines,
up to 10 households or 50 individuals may share one. Young
children rarely bother to use them; their faeces are collected
and thrown onto rubbish heaps or simply into the open. The
insecurity of tenure in the bosties means that the house-
owners have little incentive to improve matters by building
better facilities.
As a result of these poor environmental conditions, dis-
eases such as pneumonia and diarrhoea remain common
killers of children, and tuberculosis of adults. Although
access to health facilities is better than in rural Bangladesh, it
is not fully utilized. Health services are often not convenient.
Increasingly, the health system is based on private services,
which are expensive and usually located in better-off areas.
Government health services are predominantly in the form
of hospitals, mostly found in the older part of the cities, and
are difficult to attend for many of the poor. Services that are
in theory free usual-
ly involve payment
at least for medicine.
Often families have
to queue for services
– time they can ill
afford away from
work.
Many of the
poor, especially
those who are recent
migrants and with
little schooling,
believe that allo-
pathic (western
medicine) medical
services are not
appropriate to all
medical conditions,
especially those
affecting young chil-
dren for whom traditional health providers are preferred.
Many also complain that allopathic health providers do not
treat them with respect. An additional problem is posed by
the fact that men, who may be working away from home
during critical hours, control family finances, and women
are reluctant to take decisions to seek medical help in their
absence.
Violence is a major problem, especially in the bosties,
with police protection being minimal. Women may be sub-
ject to acid attacks for not accepting a man as a husband, and
abduction is major concern. On top on this, Dhaka suffers
C I T I E S A N D H E A L T H
I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 7
urbanisation
Children in the bosties of Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Phot
o:B.
Cald
wel
l
SUSTAINABILITY OF ASIA’S MEGA-CITIES Policies for Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation are the focus of research in co-operation
with IHDP-IT | BY SHOBHAKAR DHAKAL, SHINJI KANEKO AND HIDEFUMI IMURA
from extremely high atmospheric pollution including exces-
sive levels of lead, nitrous oxides and suspended particulate
matter due to poorly maintained motor vehicle engines (5).
CONCLUSION
Whereas cities once were places of disease and death, they
were subsequently the crucibles of the nineteenth century
public health movements, and their populations were the
greatest beneficiaries of advances in knowledge on how to
overcome disease and increase life expectancy. As urbanisa-
tion continues, however, these achievements are coming
under strain, especially in the developing world, where many
cities are struggling to maintain the health facilities and
other public services necessary for good public health. Of
great concern for the future, urbanisation is contributing to
emerging concerns such as obesity and global warming, both
of which have major implications for future human well-
being. While future directions in urban health are inevitably
uncertain, what does happen is of great concern, if simply
because the proportion of the world’s population living in
cities, which was less than 5% in 1800 and is now 47%, is
expected to be nearing 65% by 2030 (6).
REFERENCES to this article are included on the IHDP website
at www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm
BRUCE CALDWELL is a Research Fellow at the National
Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian
National University, Canberra, Australia.
[email protected] MCMICHAEL is Director of the National Centre for
Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National
University, Canberra, Australia.
[email protected]; http://nceph.anu.edu.au/
C I T I E S A N D H E A L T H
8 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2
urbanisation
SUSTAINABILITY AND MEGA-CITIES
The human-imposed threat to global sustainability has
two fundamental dimensions: population growth and the
ever-increasing per capita demand for goods and services,
particularly material needs and energy. Mega-cities –
defined as exceeding a population of ten millions – are
characterized by a high population density and high mate-
rial demands. They are also »front-runners« in terms of
urban development, economic growth, industrial transfor-
mation, lifestyle changes and policy implementation.
Massive infrastructure developments are underway and
consumerism is spreading. The deteriorating environmen-
tal situation has health and welfare implications for urban
dwellers. In addition, a degradation of natural resources
due to over-consumption of materials and services affect
areas and people outside cities and will have an impact on
future generations. Thus mega-cities and sustainability are
inseparably linked. At the same time, compact settlements
and high population density reduce per capita infrastruc-
ture and distribution costs and open up opportunities for
economic scale effects. Thus mega-cities could facilitate the
implementation of measures to reduce stress on sustain-
ability.
ASIAN MEGA-CITIES ON THE RISE
Rapid urbanisation is a distinctive feature of Asia. For
1990-98, the average annual urban population growth was
estimated at 3% for East Asia, 3.2% for South Asia and 2.1%
for the world average (1). It is estimated that by 2030, 2.6 bil-
lion people will live in Asian cities, representing 53% of the
world’s urban population (2). Predictions for 2015 show a
total of 358 cities worldwide with a population of over a mil-
lion people, of which 153 are expected to be in Asia (3).
From an estimated 27 mega-cities, 15 such cities will be in
Asia. Thus a sustainable management of mega-cities is and will
be a major issue for local as well as national policy-
makers.
THE ENERGY FACTOR
In this context, our research work, undertaken in co-
operation with the IHDP Industrial Transformation
Project, addresses energy consumption and greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions in Beijing, Seoul, Shanghai and Tokyo for
the years 2001-2004, and makes projections for different
scenarios, identifying major drivers and locally operational
policies and strategies. The research also includes emissions
embedded in materials and services consumed in mega-
cities.
GHG Emissions from Energy Use – Beijing, Seoul,Shanghai and Tokyo: From 1970-1998, CO2 emissions from
energy use have increased more than two-fold in Tokyo, with
a growth rate of 2.5% per year. During the same time, the
annual average growth rate of the local economy (gross
regional product) was 6.87 %. For 1990-1998, annual aver-
age growth rates of CO2 emissions for Tokyo and Seoul are
estimated at 1.7% and 1.63%, respectively.
In Tokyo, most emissions result from commercial activi-
ties and transportation, with oil and electricity being the
main sources of CO2 emissions. Despite a slowing of eco-
nomic growth in the1990s, emissions from sectors such as
households, urban transportation and commercial activities
continued to increase. Only CO2 emissions from the indus-
trial sector decreased gradually, from 34% in 1970 to 10% in
1998.
➤
➤
Households are still the main
source of emissions in Seoul, while
commercial activities cause the
least. The economic crisis that
gripped South Korea in 1997 had
an evident influence on this situa-
tion. Oil contributes to nearly 60%
of the total CO2 emissions due to
its dominant use in buildings and
urban transportation and also
because, unlike Tokyo, most of the
big buildings in Seoul use oil-based
central heating systems.
In Beijing, the industry sector
contributes nearly 60% of the total
emissions, followed by households
(14%). Urban transportation con-
tributes only about 6%. Shanghai’s
situation is similar to Beijing, with
industry contributing over 70%
and urban transportation about
9%. The emission volumes of
Beijing, Shanghai and Seoul are
1.3, 1.7 and 0.7 times higher than
the Tokyo value (Fig. 1). Economic
activity was the major driving force
behind the changes in CO2 emis-
sions in Seoul during economic
growth and recession periods (4).
In terms of CO2 emissions per unit
gross regional product and CO2
emissions per capita, Tokyo’s per-
formance is outstanding in comparison to Seoul, Beijing,
Shanghai, major Japanese cities, national figures of OECD
countries and major non-OECD countries (5).
ENERGY-GHG MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES
Energy efficiency, frequency and use patterns of devices
and appliances, fuel choice, fuel quality, and industrial pro-
ductivity are major factors that govern energy demand and
GHG emissions. Mega-cities have a limited scope to modify
land-use patterns to achieve maximum efficiency. The major
issue is how to reduce energy demand and GHG emissions
while maintaining the urban population’s living standards.
In Tokyo, population growth is more or less stabilized,
but per capita energy consumption is increasing. Major
opportunities for policy interventions are in the road trans-
portation and household sectors. Fuel switching and
enhancing industrial manufacturing processes may play a
minor role in reducing GHG emissions. Reductions will
require changes in lifestyle and consumer behavior. In Seoul,
fuel switching in industries and buildings has contributed
significantly to reducing GHG emissions in the last decade.
Unlike Tokyo, Seoul uses central heating systems in build-
ings. The potentials for improving energy efficiency and fuel
switching are high. Road transportation and private cars are
another area of concern in Seoul.
For Beijing and Shanghai, industry, buildings and urban
transportation are sectors with a great potential for inter-
ventions to reduce GHG emissions. In both cities, fuel
switching in industries is a viable option. Building insula-
tion, efficiency improvement of electric appliances and fuel
switching for central heating systems can also play an impor-
tant role. Fuel switching would contribute to significantly
reducing local pollutants. In Shanghai, car-limiting policies
have been successful so far; this city has adopted the
Singapore style of auctioning registration permits for new
vehicles. GHG emissions from urban transportation may
seem low at the moment for both Beijing and Shanghai.
However, massive investments in the transport systems are
planned for the coming years. Compared to other mega-
cities, private cars are relatively little used now, but Shanghai
and Beijing already suffer from serious air pollution from
the transport sector. China’s growing economy and WTO
membership is likely to increase incomes and reduce tariffs
for automobiles. Thus, urban planners in Beijing and
Shanghai are already projecting a 3 to 4-fold increase of cars
and trucks by 2020.
Reducing indirect energy consumption and GHG emis-
sions is another challenge. As mega-cities consume huge
amounts of materials and goods, this has implications for
manufacturing and resource-extraction sites outside cities.
Cities should be judged by their »environmental load«, also
taking into account indirect emissions. The indirect energy
consumption of Tokyo (1995) and Shanghai (1992) is almost
three times and two times higher than their direct energy
A S I A ’ S M E G A - C I T I E S
I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 9
urbanisation
ELECTRICITY FUEL MIX (1998)Beijing / Shanghai: Almost all coal
Japan national average: Coal 19.5%, Oil 16.5%, Gas 21%, Nuclear 32%, Others 11%
Korea: Coal 42%, Oil 7%, Gas 11%, Nuclear 37.5%, Others 2.5%
Fig. 1. Total CO2 emissions from energy use, 1998
consumption. In Beijing, direct and indirect energy con-
sumption are estimated to be equal. Since energy consump-
tion is the proxy to GHG emissions, the »environmental
load« that Tokyo exerts on other places is significantly high-
er than its direct emissions.
COUNTERMEASURES AND ROLE OF POLICY MAKERS
Transportation and infrastructure: Potential counter-
measures in the transportation sector include a switch to
alternative fuels (e.g., compressed natural gas – CNG); pro-
moting electric and hybrid vehicles; increasing average vehi-
cle speed through traffic management; increasing the fuel
efficiency of cars and improving fuel quality; improving
public mass transportation systems and limiting private cars;
and appropriate land-use planning. These measures should
contribute to reducing travel demand, trip length and fre-
quency. In Beijing, light duty gasoline trucks and cars are
expected to become a key component in future reductions of
energy demand and GHG emissions. Car-limiting policies
for new vehicles alone would not be sufficient in Beijing and
Shanghai. Efficient public mass transportation systems are
inevitable for these cities. It is difficult to implement car-
limiting policies in Tokyo and Seoul. In terms of fuel effi-
ciency, fuel quality and the end-of-pipe technology at the
vehicle tailpipe, there is a limited scope for further drastic
improvement in Tokyo and Seoul. The most promising way
is to implement policies that motivate people to change their
lifestyle (such as driving behaviour), and introduction of
hybrid and electric vehicles in conjunction with other tradi-
tional measures.
Beijing and Shanghai are in the process of reconstructing
their infrastructure massively. Once this is done, the cities
will be »locked in« to these infrastructures. At this early
stage, policy makers should consider energy demand and
emissions while constructing infrastructures and trying to
reduce automobile dependency. Mass trans-
portation strategies may look financially
demanding, but are worth pursuing. Efficient
infrastructure is possible with joint cost shar-
ing between the government and the citizens.
Building sector: Prospects for implement-
ing countermeasures in the building sector
are enormous and include improvements in
building insulation, appliance efficiency, and
efficient central heating and cooling systems.
Building insulation is important but largely
not taken seriously by policy makers. In
mega-cities such as Shanghai rapid income
increases during the past decade resulted in
intensive use of heating and cooling devices
and other electric appliances, but building
insulation could not match this pace.
Efficient central heating and cooling systems
for buildings through technology improve-
ment and fuel switching are a key to energy
issues. Simple measures such as changing
from incandescent to fluorescent lamps can
save huge amounts of energy. Building codes,
laws, and standards can also promote appli-
ance and building energy efficiency. The
scope for improvements in appliance efficien-
cy may be less in Seoul and Tokyo than in
Beijing and Shanghai. Using renewable ener-
gy such as solar panels for hot water produc-
tion, appropriate thermostat settings for
heating and cooling systems, and avoiding waste of electric-
ity are key to saving energy.
Drastic changes in construction materials and techniques
are required to make buildings and infrastructure sustain-
able. Improvements in technology, urban management and
life-style changes are key to a sustainable development in
mega-cities.
REFERENCES to this article are included on the IHDP
website at www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm
SHOBHAKAR DHAKAL is a researcher at the Institute for
Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan;
[email protected]; www.iges.or.jpSHINJI KANEKO is Associate Professor, Graduate School for
International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima
University, Japan; [email protected];
www.hiroshima-u.ac.jpHIDEFUMI IMURA is Professor at the Graduate School of
Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Japan; he is a
member of the Scientific Steering Committee of the IHDP
Project on Industrial Transformation
(www.vu.nl/ivm/research/ihdp-it/)[email protected]; www.genv.nagoya-u.ac.jp
A S I A ’ S M E G A - C I T I E S
1 0 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2
urbanisation
Fig. 2. CO2 emissions per capita versus per unit gross regional product
(log scale)
➤
➤
➤ From the climatologist’s point of view, »human historyis defined as the history of urbanisation«. Today, at least 170
cities support more than one million inhabitants. Estimates
suggest that urban populations will represent 80 percent of
the total world population by 2100. In recent years, industri-
alisation and urbanisation have led to a dramatic increase in
the number of urban buildings, which had major effects on
the energy consumption in this sector.
Urban areas without a good climate quality use more
energy for air conditioning in summer and more electricity
for lighting. The urban population suffers under high tem-
peratures; wind tunnel effects in streets and
unusual wind turbulence due to inadequately
designed high-rise buildings are very common
(1). Thus, it has become increasingly important
to study the urban climatic environment and
apply the knowledge gained to improve people’s
environment in cities. This article presents the
main features and results of a large-scale experi-
ment undertaken in Athens within the frame-
work of the POLIS research programme of the
European Commission (EC). The aim of the
experiment was to investigate main parameters
related to urban layout, climatic characteristics
and energy consumption of buildings in Athens.
EXPERIMENT AND RESULTS
Within the framework of the EC’s POLIS
research project 35 temperature stations were
installed in the main Athens region in June 1996,
where the ambient temperature was measured
on an hourly basis. High temperature differences
between the urban and reference stations were
recorded during the summer. During daytime,
temperatures differed up to 14o C; this difference
was particularly evident between a station in a
high traffic area and the reference station. We noticed that
the higher the temperature was in the urban station, the
higher the temperature difference. This was mainly due to
the thermal balance in the urban region where traffic adds to
the heat inputs and increases local temperatures – which
does not occur in the surrounding suburban reference
region.
As a function of urban layout, traffic load, anthropogenic
heat and the overall balance of each study area, temperature
differences during the daytime varied from 0o to 14o C, with
a mean temperature difference of 7-8o C. In the national park
(Station: kip), located in the very centre of Athens, lower
temperature differences were recorded; a main pedestrian
street showed the lowest differences (Station: erm).
In general, during the daytime the city centre is charac-
terized by much higher temperatures than the surrounding
area. Fig. 1 illustrates the spatial temperature distribution in
the central Athens area during noontime on 1 August 1996.
As shown, the central Athens area is to about 7-8o C warmer
than the surrounding area, while at the station of
Ippokratous, located in a high traffic area, the temperature
difference was about 12-13o C. A better understanding of the
persistence of high temperature differences during the day-
time is given if the cooling degree hours are calculated. We
found that cooling degree-days at the surrounding Athens
area were close to 107, while the corresponding value for the
central area was 355.
During night periods, the central Athens region is about
3o C warmer than the reference suburban stations, but
differences up to 5o C were recorded at many stations. The
western part of Athens is characterised by high building den-
sity, lack of green spaces and heavy traffic; temperatures
there were 3-4o C higher than at the reference station.
Cooling degree hours in the western part of Athens varied
between 85 and 104, while the centre had 65-85 such hours
and the Eastern, reference, part of Athens had 26.
ENERGY IMPACT
It is well accepted that urbanisation leads to a very high
increase in energy use. A recent analysis (2) showed that a
THE ATHENS HEAT ISLAND A large-scale, EC-funded experiment investigates links between urbanisation, climate and energy con-
sumption in Athens, Greece | BY MATTHAIOS SANTAMOURIS
T H E A T H E N S H E A T I S L A N D
I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 1 1
urbanisation
Fig. 1. Temperature distribution in the central Athens area at12:00 h on 1 August 1996.
one percent increase in the per capita GNP causes an almost
equal increase in energy consumption, i.e. by a factor of 1.03.
However, if the urban population grows by 1 percent, the
energy consumption increases by 2.2 percent, which means
that the rate of change in energy use is twice the rate of
change in urbanisation. These data clearly show the impact
of urbanisation on energy use.
Increased urban temperatures have a direct effect on
the energy consumption of buildings during the summer
period, as higher temperatures contribute to more elec-
tricity demand for cooling. The spatial variation of the
monthly cooling load of a reference building in Athens,
calculated by using hourly temperature data that were
measured at stations installed in and
around the city, are discussed below.
Using hourly data of the ambient
temperature collected, simulations of
the cooling load of the reference build-
ing were performed for August 1996.
All other operational data, like internal
gains, were selected to correspond
exactly to the measured conditions.
Calculations were performed for three
temperature bases, i.e. 26, 27 and
28o C. The values were expressed in
kWh per square meter and month. An
indicative spatial variation of the cool-
ing load of the reference building for a
26o C set point temperature is given in
Fig. 2. It shows that the cooling load at
the city centre is about twice that of
the surrounding Athens region. For a
set point temperature of 26o C, the cal-
culated maximum and minimum cool-
ing load was close to 14.2 and 7.4 kWh
per square meter. The corresponding
maximum values for 27 and 28o C set
points amounted to 12.9 and 11.5 kWh
per square meter, while the minimum
values were 6.1 and 5.1 kWh per square
meter respectively.
The maximum cooling load was always compared to the
very central area of Athens and especially to a station close to
a road with high traffic. For the south-eastern Athens region,
a residential area with an average population density and
close to the Hemetus forest, we calculated minimum values.
Much higher cooling loads were calculated for the Western
Athens region. This area is characterised by high-density
plots, lack of green spaces, industrial activity and higher traf-
fic than the Eastern Athens region.
CONCLUSIONS
An extensive experimental project was carried out to
investigate the temperature distribution in the main urban
area of Athens. Thirty-five stations were installed and the
recorded data were analysed. A significant temperature
increase was recorded in the central Athens area. Energy
analyses indicated that temperature increase has a very
important impact on the energy consumption of buildings
for cooling purposes.
Acknowledgment: The research was financed by the
Directorate General for Science, Research and Development
of the European Commission within the framework of the
POLIS research project.
REFERENCES to this article are included on the IHDP
website at www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm
MATTHAIOS SANTAMOURIS is a researcher at the Section of
Applied Physics, Department of Physics of the University of
Athens, Greece; he was a lecturer at the IHDW 2002;
[email protected]; www.uoa.gr
T H E A T H E N S H E A T I S L A N D
1 2 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2
urbanisation
Fig. 2. Iso – Cooling load lines for the reference building in Athensand for a set point temperature of 26o C (August1996).
➤ The IHDP UPDATE newsletter features the activities of theInternational Human Dimensions Programme on GlobalEnvironmental Change and its research community.
UPDATE is prepared by the IHDP Secretariat Walter-Flex-Strasse 353113 Bonn, Germany.
EDITOR: Elisabeth Dyck, IHDP; [email protected]
DESIGN & LAYOUT: Serap Lannert, Bonn, Germany;[email protected]
PRINTED BY: Köllen Druck+Verlag GmbH, Bonn, Germany
UPDATE is published four times per year. Sections of UPDATE
may be reproduced with acknowledgement to IHDP. Please senda copy of any reproduced material to the IHDP Secretariat.
The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarilyrepresent the position of IHDP or its sponsoring organisations.
➤
➤
➤ Since the beginning of the economic tran-sition in the Czech Republic in the early 1990s,
problems of suburban land use and change
have become increasingly evident. Before the
»Velvet Revolution« in 1989, cities expanded
to the surrounding land in a very limited fash-
ion, due to many factors that characterised the
socialist system. As there was no market econ-
omy, a market for land and private property
did not exist; efforts to reduce regional differ-
ences were high and laws for land preserva-
tion were strict. After 1989, the transition to a
market economy increased activities in the pri-
vate property and residential land markets, in
particular in commercial, industrial and infra-
structural use of land.
Based on first results of a project by the
Charles University on »Changes in the landscape
in Prague’s suburban area in the periods before
and during transformation«, and supported by
the Czech Grant Agency, we make some prelim-
inary observations about suburbanisation in
Prague. Fig. 1a shows the development of built-
up areas during the period 1990-2000 which
increased in the majority of cadastres.
Interestingly, we found a few cadastres in the suburbs of
Prague, where built-up areas decreased by more than 5 per-
cent. Other analyses based on satellite data show that there
were no intensive pressures on the landscape (such as a frag-
mentation or forest decline) in the entire study area during
the above mentioned period. The increase of built-up areas
corresponds with an increase in population (compare Fig.1a
and 1b). In some parts, residential suburbanisation prevailed.
Spatial relationships will be examined in the next stages of
the project and will be based on methods of spatial statistics.
A very simple data source, i.e. photos, allows us to illus-
trate some specific features of housing. During the socialist
period, extensive blocks of »panel flats« were built, with no
privacy and appropriate services for their inhabitants, with
no green areas around them or playgrounds for children
(Fig. 2). However, is it any
better to build satellite towns
such as shown in Fig. 3? These
are new residential areas in
villages near the capital, built
after 1989 on green meadows
– again without appropriate
services. Their aesthetic value
is controversial. Like in blocks
of flats, the inhabitants do not
have enough privacy. In addi-
tion, some of the building companies
went bankrupt, which left many hous-
es unfinished in some areas. People
here are forced to live in an environ-
ment of unfinished brick structures
that slowly deteriorate with weather
and time. As people commute on a
daily basis between the satellite
towns and the city centre, this causes
traffic jams, requires new roads and
adds to the problem of landscape
fragmentation. An adequate traffic
system has not yet been designed. At
present, the construction of a perimeter
highway in the Northwestern part
of Prague is under discussion. At
the border of the city, huge shop-
ping centres have been set up and
represent another feature of sub-
urbanisation that copies US and
West-European lifestyle. For many
people spending time on the week-
end in these shopping centres has
become a new leisure activity.
A few examples of the old and
new »face« of Prague’s suburbs were discussed here. We are
still at the beginning of a new period of suburbanisation and
should be able to learn from the experience of other major
cities, avoid their mistakes in urban development and give
suburbanisation a »human face«.
Acknowledgement: This contribution is an output of
Research Project No. 205/02/P093 of the Czech Grant
Agency and of Research Project No. VZ 23-313007 of the
Ministry of Education of the Czech Republic.
LUCIE KUPKOVÁ is a Research Assistant at the GIS
Laboratory, Institute for Environmental Studies, Faculty of
Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic;
[email protected]; www.natur.cuni.cz/
T H E S U B U R B S O F P R A G U Eyoung scientist research
Fig. 2 and 3. Footprints of socialism (left), footprints of a new capitalism (right) – block ofpanel houses versus satellite towns. What is better/worse?
Fig. 1b. Population development1991-1999 (year 1991 = 100%)
A HUMAN FACE FOR PRAGUE’S SUBURBS?A research project at Charles University evaluates human and biophysical dimensions of Prague’s sub-
urbanisation and its consequences | BY LUCIE KUPKOVÁ, PARTICIPANT IN THE INTERNATIONAL HUMAN
DIMENSIONS WORKSHOP 2002
Phot
os:L
.Kup
ková
I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 1 3
Fig. 1a. The development ofbuilt-up areas 1990-2000
(year 1990 = 100%)➤
➤ Intensive use of natural resources calls for increasinglydetailed inventories of its components and an investigation
of the changes that took place in the past. This is particular-
ly important in areas undergoing fast, unplanned changes,
such as urban settlements in developing countries. Land-
cover and land-use (LCLU) change analysis and projection
provide a tool to assess ecosystem change and its environ-
mental implications at various temporal and spatial scales.
Despite their relevance, quantitative data describing where,
when and how change occurs are incomplete or inexact.
Thus, research on this subject is important in order to
understand patterns of LCLU change as well as their social
and environmental implications at different spatial and tem-
poral scales.
We have researched LCLU change patterns in the water-
shed of Cuitzeo, the second largest lake in Mexico, covering
an area of ca. 4,000 km2 and located in the Trans-Mexican
Volcanic Belt. The dominant climate is temperate with sea-
sonal rainfall in summer and an average temperature of
15° C. The average annual precipitation is around 1,000 mm.
Soils and landforms are of Quaternary volcanic origin.
To quantify patterns of LCLU change, land-cover was
interpreted on black and white panchromatic aerial photog-
raphy. The approximate scale was 1:50,000 for 1975 (161
images) and 1:37,000 for 2000 (283 images). In addition,
1:50,000 basic and thematic cartography was used to
describe relevant physical characteristics of the study area.
The analysis of LCLU changes specifically considered popu-
lation and human settlement growth, which increased sig-
nificantly. 385 localities (380,787 inhabitants) were regis-
tered in 1975; in 1995, the number was 509 (837,775 inhab-
itants). The study area is characterised by a population
migration to the capital of the state, the capital of the coun-
try and to the USA. Rain-fed fields are increasingly aban-
doned and are now covered by shrub land or forests.
According to census data, urban settlements are those
with over 2,500 inhabitants; 25 such settlements exist in the
Cuitzeo watershed. In 1975 urban settlements occupied an
area of 3,141 ha, increasing to 10,939 ha by 2000. At the same
time, population density decreased in these urban settle-
ments. In two cities, the population has declined due to emi-
gration, but the cities continue growing in area. People
working outside the country send money to their families in
the region to build houses that they will occupy when
returning to Mexico.
There are other urban problems in the watershed. So far,
a vulnerability analysis has not been undertaken. During my
participation in the IHDW, I learned about the application
criteria to carry out a risk and vulnerability analysis (floods,
earthquakes, landslides) in urban settlements. Remote
sensing and GIS technology are useful to delineate land
cover, land use, geo-forms, rocks and soils and help to model
risk scenarios and vulnerability of the society.
The main urban area in the watershed is Morelia, a city
that expanded from 709 ha in 1960 to 3,368 ha in 1990.
Other urban settlements were incorporated into Morelia, a
process very common to fast growing urban settlements that
lack adequate planning. Forty-six percent of the urban area
is now located on the alluvial plain, occupying former agri-
cultural land of prime quality. Urbanisation expanded also
to slopes surrounding the city, some of them
affected by landslides and rock-fall. This has
increased the vulnerability to geologic risks, a
fact that is not easily accepted by local authori-
ties. Therefore it is necessary to carry out an
interdisciplinary study to identify the natural
risks and vulnerability of each human settlement
in the basin. This study must also involve deci-
sion-makers to influence urban planning in this
area.
ERNA LÓPEZ GRANADOS is a PhD candidate at
the Instituto de Ecología, Universidad Nacional
Autonoma de Mexico, Campus Morelia,
Michoacán, México; [email protected];
http://geoecologia.oikos.unam.mx
GERARDO BOCCO is a researcher at the Instituto
de Ecología, Universidad Nacional Autonoma
de Mexico, Campus Morelia, Michoacán, and
with the National Institute for Ecology, Mexico
RISK AND VULNERABILITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES A case study of Morelia City, Mexico, evaluates risk and vulnerability | BY ERNA LÓPEZ GRANADOS,
PARTICIPANT IN THE INTERNATIONAL HUMAN DIMENSIONS WORKSHOP 2002, AND GERARDO BOCCO
A M E X I C A N C A S E S T U D Yyoung scientist research
Fig. 1. A vulnerability and risk analysis of Morelia City, Mexico.
1 4 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2
➤
➤
Geographic Information System
Bio
ph
ysica
l da
ta
an
d in
form
atio
nS
ocia
l da
ta
Morelia City | Vulnerability
Seismic activity
EarthquakesFracturesFaults
Geological andgeomorphologicalinformation
Hydrometerological processes
Landslides
Geomorphological processes
Hydrometerologicaldata and geomorpho-logical and land cover /use information
FloodsDroughts
VulnerabilityAnalysis and modelling
Population Density Margination
➤ This article aims to locate my current studies within thecontext of the IHDW 2002. It first discusses the current
urban product of Egyptian desert settlements and its nega-
tive impact on humans and the environment. Then, it pres-
ents a conceptual framework for the process behind the
development of this product and briefly highlights my cur-
rent research focus. Finally, it explores potential avenues for
future research inspired by the Workshop.
THE URBAN PRODUCT
It is widely agreed that the spatial strategies adopted by
the Egyptian government in recently developed new desert
settlements are not environmentally sustainable (1). The
new settlements have detached, spread-out housing blocks
that heat up under intensive solar radiation or consume
excessive quantities of energy for cooling. They have wide
grid networks of streets that serve as good channels for hot
dusty winds. They require high use of cars that potentially
emit an excessive amount of pollutants and heat. They
impact on a lot of land and disturb the fragile ecosystem.
These modern settlements ignore the design principles of
Egypt’s traditional settlements, developed over many centuries.
These traditional settlements have low-rise buildings with
small inner courtyards that provide good ambient conditions.
They have narrow winding streets that minimise heat gain and
loss and escape the hot sand-laden winds. They are compact
and small in size, integrate under- with above- ground spaces,
and hence have a minimal impact on the environment. Based
on these traditional desert settlements, I have developed a
model of environmentally adaptive urban design principles
towards establishing sustainable desert settlements (2).
THE PROCESS
Ignoring these principles is not primarily a technical prob-
lem. Securing a better urban product depends upon a critical
examination of the urban development process (3), defined as
the decision-making process and mechanisms that lead to the
production of the urban form. When comparing contempo-
rary and traditional development processes a significant differ-
ence was found. While the contemporary process is top-down
with virtually no role for residents and a rigid set of Western
regulations, the traditional process was bottom-up with mini-
mal state intervention and a proscriptive rather than prescrip-
tive code of laws (i.e. a code which only states what not to do).
An answer to why the current urban development process
and product have taken this shape lies in the political, social,
cultural, economic, environmental and technological forces.
These forces, which operate at different scales, shape a com-
plex societal process that stands behind the current urban
practices. In order to understand the current urban product,
we have to develop an understanding of the nature of this
complex process. This is a major task; in my current research
only a first step towards this goal is attempted by focusing on
‘planning education’ as one force that contributes to the cur-
rent urban practices.
FUTURE RESEARCH
Inspired by the many ideas discussed at the IHDW,
potential avenues for future research on the product level
include (i) quantifying the negative impact of the current
built environment through studying the Heat Island Effect
in one of the new desert settlements, and associated health
hazards and environmental problems; (ii) quantifying the
positive role of traditional built environments in reducing
negative environmental impacts; and (iii) investigating how
vegetation and water elements could be used efficiently in a
desert environment with limited resources.
On the process level, research proposals include (i) mon-
itoring the change from the traditional development process
to the current one, and examining how different forces con-
tribute to this change over time; (ii) investigating on a glob-
al/national scale the contribution of the governance system
to the current built environment, as one important force in
the Egyptian context; and (iii) investigating how the envi-
ronment is perceived, or socially constructed, by the govern-
ment, professionals and other stakeholders.
REFERENCES to this article are included on the IHDP
website at www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm
ABOUL-FETOUH SAAD SHALABY is a Teaching Assistant at
the Faculty of Urban and Regional Planning, Cairo
University, Egypt (on leave) and a PhD student at the
Department of City and Regional Planning, Cardiff
University in Wales, UK. [email protected];
www.cardiff.ac.uk
UNSUSTAINABLE DESERT SETTLEMENTS IN EGYPTProduct, Process and Avenues for Future Research | BY ABOUL-FETOUH SAAD SHALABY, PARTICIPANT IN THE
INTERNATIONAL HUMAN DIMENSIONS WORKSHOP 2002
D E S E R T S E T T L E M E N T S I N E G Y P T
I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 1 5
young scientist research
Fig. 1. Simplified diagram: how different societal forces shapethe urban product
➤
➤
➤ China is undergoing a period of rapid urbanisation andindustrialisation. The number of cities increased from 622 in
1994 to 667 in 1999. In 1994, ten cities had a population of
more than 2 million; by 1999 the number was 13. China’s
rate of urbanisation grew from 26.21 percent in 1989 to
30.89 percent in 1999. The complex interactions between
urbanisation and ecosystems have become a major concern
for researchers of different disciplines, decision-makers and
the public. Our recent research has therefore focused on
finding scientific solutions for a sustainable urbanisation
management in China.
THEORETICAL DEVELOPMENT
Taoism, the traditional holistic Chinese philosophy, recog-
nizes that humans and nature interact with each other as one
entity. With this in mind, we derived fifteen ecological princi-
ples of human-nature interactions including principles of
selectability, complementarity, duality, substitutability, adapta-
tion and innovation, symmetry and fluctuation, and cost-bene-
fits (effectiveness), etc. Based on the fundamentals of ecologi-
cal economics and these principles, we developed an integrat-
ed concept of ecosystems capital or eco-capital, which serves as
a starting point for establishing a theoretical framework of
integrating eco-capital into urbanisation (see Fig.1, included
in the Web version of Update). The concept of eco-capital (see
Box) integrates human-related and natural capital that pro-
duces eco-products or services to sustain the survival and
development of humans and ecosystems. Complicated inter-
actions among eco-capital, natural capital, human capital and
man-made (including financial) capital drive urbanisation,
industrialisation and civilisation. Our research focused on the
ecological transformation of urbanisation, industrialisation
and civilisation by building a management mechanism for a
sustainable ecological capital cycle between cities and ecosys-
tems. This requires understanding the temporary and spatial
processes of urban development, exploring the stress-
response mechanisms between urbanisation and eco-capital,
and evaluating the depreciation, appreciation and appropria-
tion of eco-capital at different levels of urbanisation.
METHODOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
Our study1 was implemented in the Yangtze River Delta
Region (YRDR), the Taihu Lake Basin Region (TLBR) and in
Yangzhou city in East China, rich in wetland eco-capital
stock and one of the highly urbanised areas in the country.
An integrated methodology was developed, using a method
model that included driving forces, stress, vulnerability, sen-
sitivity, state, effects, uncertainty and responses. The research
focused on developing a meta-analysis including an
Integrated Temporary Analysis (ITA) with a life cycle of the
past, present and future, a 3S-based Integrated Spatial
Analysis (ISA) with different spatial scales, an Integrated
Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis (IQA) and an
Integrated Biophysical and Currency Value Analysis (IVA).
RESEARCH PROGRESS
So far, research has been completed on (1) stresses of
urbanisation on eco-capital and its effects and responses,
including ecological effects of urban land use and regional
climate impacts of urbanisation in YRDR; ecological impacts
of urbanisation on water resources, water environment and
their ecological responses in TLBR; climate impact simula-
tion analyses of urban energy consumption in YRDR;
changes in the ecological landscape driven by urbanisation
in Shanghai and its surrounding areas; and environmental
impacts and human responses of urbanisation and industri-
alisation in Jiangyin; (2) an eco-capital value measure method
and appropriation/assessment analysis, including a solar
space value method for measuring eco-capital; an eco-serv-
ices value measure method; an analysis of eco-capital appro-
priation by urbanisation in TLBR; an assessment of water
ecosystem services of urbanisation in Yangzhou; and an eco-
services analysis for urbanisation in Shanghai and Yangzhou;
(3) eco-capital integrated management of urbanisation,
including eco-planning of sustainable urbanisation in the
Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou-Shaoxing region and eco-plan-
ning of sustainable urbanisation in Yangzhou.
Future research will focus on spatial pattern and dynam-
ics of wetland eco-capital and its services, using 3S tech-
niques. Methods for eco-capital value measure and appro-
priation analysis will be improved and developed, and insti-
tutional and cultural dimensions of sustainable eco-capital
management will be studied.
REFERENCES to this article and Fig. 1 are included on the
IHDP website at www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm
DAN HU is an Associate Professor at the Research Center for
Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
Beijing, P.R.China;
[email protected]; www.cas.ac.cn
ECO-CAPITAL AND ITS SERVICES IN URBANISATION A brief introduction to theory, methods and progress in China | BY DAN HU, PARTICIPANT IN THE
INTERNATIONAL HUMAN DIMENSIONS WORKSHOP 2002
E C O - C A P I T A L A N D U R B A N I S A T I O N
1 6 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2
young scientist research
Eco-capital refers to tangible and intangible ecosystem states, forms (structure/pattern)
and functioning/processes produced by human- or biota-environment interactions
within and/or among ecosystems, which serve as inputs for producing other joint
ecosystem products or services.
Examples of eco-capital are hydro-, soil, atmospheric, landscape and agricultural ecosys-
tems and other human-involved or -dominated ecosystems. We define strong eco-capital
with humans as a component and weak eco-capital without humans but with biota as a
component. Social, cultural and economic capital are usually viewed as constituent ele-
ments of eco-capital, depending on the contexts in which the concept is seen.
Eco-assets are the tangible and intangible ecosystem states, forms (structure/pattern) and
functioning/processes produced by human or biota-environment interactions within
and/or among ecosystems, which have the potential for producing types of ecosystem
utility or benefits and usually include human and non-human ecosystems.
Ecosystems or eco-services are the conditions and processes through which natural
ecosystems, and the species that make them up, sustain and fulfill human life (4,1)
1 The National Foundation of Natural Sciences of China supported the
research (grant numbers 40171042 and 3993004).
➤
➤
➤ From 2-15 June 2002,IHDP and START
(Global Change SysTem
for Analysis, Research
and Training) hosted the
third bi-annual Inter-
national Human
Dimensions Workshop
(IHDW) for young sci-
entists in Bonn. Thirty-
two young scholars from
20 countries in Africa,
Asia, Latin America,
and, for the first time,
Eastern Europe and
Russia were selected
from over 160 applicants to come to Bonn and explore the
workshop theme: »Urbanisation and the Transition to
Sustainability«.
The main objective of the workshop was to provide a
comprehensive and integrated perspective on issues related
to Global Environmental Change (GEC) and urban areas.
The workshop encouraged speakers and participants from
different scientific backgrounds to develop an interdiscipli-
nary approach to the workshop theme. Different comple-
mentary components, such as lectures, expert panels and
individual projects formed the basis for the organisational
structure of the workshop. The lectures and panels given by
well-known scholars in the field exposed the participants to
a wide range of topics reflecting the complex and dynamic
range of societal and environmental interactions that take
place in cities, from the local to the global level: natural and
social dimensions of GEC, regional processes of urbanisa-
tion, urban processes, social shaping of urban space, gover-
nance, environmental problems, urban climate, vulnerabili-
ty, and water.
Prior to the workshop the participants had been asked to
select an individual case study from their country on a topic
related to the »Human Dimensions of GEC in Cities« and
bring their own sets of empirical data to Bonn. During the
workshop, the young scholars were able to apply the infor-
mation and knowledge gathered to their individual projects.
The last two days were dedicated to presentations by partic-
ipants. Their talks demonstrated a clear step towards an inte-
grated perspective on human dimensions of GEC, and many
participants expressed a strong desire to expand their
research to include new dimensions.
The successful outcome was due to a framework that
emphasised communication and interaction amongst lec-
turers and participants. All invited lecturers were asked to
allow for extra time for discussions and interaction.
Lecturers advised and commented on the participants’
individual case studies. In addition, two data specialists
from the Columbia University’s Center for International
Earth Science Infor-
mation Network
(CIESIN) and the
Center for Environ-
mental Systems
Research of the Uni-
versity of Kassel,
Germany, were present
during the workshop.
After an introduction
to Geographic Infor-
mation Systems (GIS)
including ArcView®
software, they helped
the participants to
solve individual data
problems and computer questions. Lively discussions dur-
ing the breaks, in the evenings and sometimes even at
night, when participants and lecturers worked together in
the computer room, proved the success of this organisa-
tional framework.
An important result of the workshop is a strong network
established between young and senior scholars working in
the field of GEC and urbanisation. In the meantime, a list
server has been installed to facilitate communication within
the group. IHDP will produce a hard copy report of the
workshop, which will highlight the case studies. Copies will
be available from Maarit
Thiem or at the IHDP web-
site in electronic form. A
website with information on
the workshop’s agenda, par-
ticipants and relevant insti-
tutions can be found at
www.ihdw2002.de.
IHDP would like to thank
Roberto Sanchez-Rodriguez,
who was the scientific leader
of the workshop. His con-
cepts, experience and ideas
helped to set up and carry
out a very successful endeavour. His efforts before and dur-
ing the workshop were invaluable.
We gratefully acknowledge the sponsors of the workshop:
Asia-Pacific Network (APN), German Research Foundation
(DFG), Inter-American Institute for Global Change
Research (IAI), START and the US National Science
Foundation.
MAARIT THIEM, International Science Project Co-ordina-
tor, and VALERIE SCHULZ, Research Assistant, organised the
IHDW 2002 on behalf of the IHDP Secretariat.
[email protected]; [email protected];
www.idhw2002.de
INTERNATIONAL HUMAN DIMENSIONS WORKSHOP 2002Urbanisation and the transition to sustainability | BY MAARIT THIEM AND VALERIE SCHULZ
I H D W 2 0 0 2
I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 1 7
urbanisation
➤
IHDW 2002: participants, lecturers and organisers
J. Leitmann (left), lecturer, andRoberto Sanchez-Rodriguez (right),scientific leader of the IHDW 2002.
Phot
o:M
.Thi
em
Phot
o:D.
Mey
er W
efer
ing
➤ From June 1-3, 2002, the IDGEC Scientific SteeringCommittee (SSC) met for the fourth time since the incep-
tion of the project – this time in Bali, Indonesia. Amid the
lush plantings of the Hotel Putri Bali and just a few hundred
feet away from the Bali International Convention Center,
where the WSSD PrepCom was holding its final meeting, the
SSC held lively discussions, charting the course for the
implementation of the IDGEC project.
The SSC welcomed several new mem-
bers and bid goodbye to several old
friends who had served on the SSC for the
past three years. Elena Andreeva (Russia),
Peter Sands (Germany), Angela Cropper
(Trinidad and Tobago), and Yoshiki
Yamagata (Japan) left the SSC. New
members included Taishi Sugiyama
(Japan), Jyrki Luukannen (Finland), and
Arild Underdal (Norway). Joining the SSC meeting were
Syma Ebbin (IPO Executive Officer), Antonio Contreras,
(IDGEC Research Fellow, Philippines), Sylvia Karlsson
(IHDP Secretariat), Ooi Giok Lin (Singapore), and Robert
Wasson (IGBP Scientific Committee).
IDGEC’s science agenda is implemented through flagship
activities focused on the political economy of forestry (PEF),
carbon management (CMRA) and the performance of the
exclusive economic zones (PEEZ), as well as several cross-
cutting themes. Each of the three flagship activities has pub-
lished a scoping report and made the transition from plan-
ning to active research. At this time, however, it is too soon
to synthesize findings from the project.
Funded by the Asia Pacific Network (APN), the PEF team
has just completed a series of case studies on the political
economy of forests in Southeast Asian countries. A report
summarizing the study’s findings will be completed this
summer. The team is currently beginning a second APN
funded project focused on the implications of sustainable
livelihoods and biodiversity in Southeast Asia on resilience
and risk. The PEF team is also developing another proposal
for APN funding for a study comparing tropical and boreal
forest governance.
PEEZ held its second workshop in Bali immediately fol-
lowing the IDGEC SSC meeting.
Alf Håkon Hoel has received a research grant from the
Norwegian Research Council that will fund a third PEEZ
workshop in September at the University of Tromsø. IDGEC
Research Fellow Frank Alcock authored a successful grant
proposal to Duke University that will facilitate a
fourth PEEZ workshop in the spring of 2003 at
Duke University.
Two CMRA activities are in
progress: an agent-based model of
compliance and a scenario-based
model of emissions trading in the
21st century. With the develop-
ment of the joint IGBP/IHDP/
WCRP Global Carbon Project
Science Plan and Implementation
Strategy, it was decided that
future research efforts of the
IDGEC CMRA should directly contribute to this endeavor.
The SSC identified the development of partnerships with
other programs and organizations and the IDGEC network
as high priorities. The SSC endorsed the IDGEC Network
Initiative, which was the focus of a story in a previous
newsletter. It also endorsed the introduction of the IDGEC
Policy Links Publication Series and a web-conferencing
pilot project. The members of the SSC decided to continue
and formalize the IDGEC Research Fellows Program.
Guidelines for prospective fellows are currently being drawn
up. IDGEC’s presentation and publication strategies were
also discussed, identifying fora where relevant research
should be presented. Finally, the SSC emphasized the need
for IDGEC research to be both policy-relevant and
accessible.
SYMA ALEXI EBBIN is Executive Officer, International
Project Office of the IHDP Project on Institutional
Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (IDGEC),
Dartmouth College, Hanover, USA;
[email protected]; www.dartmouth.edu/~idgec
IDGEC SSC CONVENES IN BALI BY SYMA ALEXI EBBIN
I D G E C
1 8 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2
core projectsPh
otos
:E.D
yck
➤
➤ A major issue discussed within both the IHDP and theIGBP research communities is a common methodological
approach for integrating the ecological and the social
processes at varied scalar dimensions, from plot level to
landscape level analysis, and final upgrading to regional
scale. In this context the following discussion on India’s con-
tributions to human dimension-related global change
research becomes significant.
Human dimension-related global change research was
started in India in the early 1970s. An initiative of over 60
scientists and 10 community participants aimed at finding a
sustainable management for shifting agriculture areas, using
a socio-ecological systems approach in studies on North-
Eastern India (1). During the early 1980s, Indian researchers
were involved in the international Tropical Soil Biology and
Fertility (TSBF) programme of the International Union of
Biological Sciences and UNESCO, using a farming system
approach for sustainable agriculture (2). These efforts were
restricted to socio-ecologically complex mountain systems.
Recently, this research was extended to the plains of India,
applying a socio-ecological systems approach to analyse
land-use dynamics.
A SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL APPROACH
We used an integrated socio-ecological system perspec-
tive to examine the dynamics of sustainability issues (Fig. 1)
and linked ‘Traditional Ecological Knowledge’ (TEK) with
‘Formal Knowledge’ to identify suitable technologies for a
sustainable management of natural resources. A wide variety
of traditional agro-ecosystems, ranging from casually man-
aged shifting agriculture to sedentary systems, and varied
levels of ecological and economic efficiencies, linked to for-
est ecosystems with energy and resource flows between the
two, required the building of bridges between natural and
human-managed ecosystem functions. Integrated forest and
agricultural system management practices strengthened soil
biological processes.
Based on a historical analysis of the factors responsible
for land degradation, the objective was to design agro-
ecosystem models by combining sustainability with higher
production levels. This was achieved by linking the tradi-
tional and the formal knowledge systems within a social con-
text (1,3). For less-developed societies, it was necessary to
gradually build upon TEK using an incremental pathway. For
societies ready to accept more developed agro-ecosystem
models, a mix of traditional and formal knowledge bases was
used to fit the model into the ecological contours of the
landscape – the contour pathway. For modern agriculture, the
buffering mechanisms in the landscape were strengthened to
avert land degradation. All three models were able to coexist
in a landscape, the proportion being determined by socio-
ecological conditions.
A related concern was forest management, particularly
where degradation was most rampant and managing forest
biodiversity was critical for the overall sustainability of the
landscape (4). Recognizing the linkage between socially
selected and ecologically significant keystones (5) enabled us
to link resource management efforts with local communities’
value systems. This ensured local participation in biodiversi-
ty conservation and met the needs for a sustainable liveli-
hood. Many species were identified from diverse socio-eco-
logical systems; often the same sets of species were found in
different situations. Silviculture was linked to ecological,
social, economic and cultural dimensions of forest ecosys-
tem management.
POLICY DIMENSIONS OF RESEARCH
Operating within a socio-ecological framework, we used
print and audio-visual media to reach out to policy planners
and developmental agencies. The two contrasting socio-eco-
logical situations that demand different strategies were:
(a) redeveloping traditional land use systems to conserve
natural and human-managed biodiversity, and (b) building
buffering mechanisms to counter the adverse effects of high-
ly intensive land-use management practices.
An example of strategy (a) is the Nagaland experiment in
North-Eastern India. It involved 1200 village communities,
created institutions based on traditional values, and built
upon traditional knowledge. Due to our research efforts (4),
it resulted in a redevelopment of shifting agriculture systems
in the region, based on a traditional value system.
Understanding soil biological processes, manipulating them
through appropriate soil organic residue management, and
using earthworms as indicators for soil fertility improved the
buffering capacity of the soil. This led to a 50% reduction in
the use of inorganic fertilizers in the tea garden systems of
southern India and was patented as part of the TSBF initia-
tive (6).
During the past decades we have tried to build the capa-
bility to arrive at a methodological approach (see Fig. 1) and
effectively link ecological with social processes in the area of
landscape ecology and its sustainable management. This was
undertaken with community participation in the context of
‘global change’. These efforts were able to cut across socio-
ecological systems by designing adaptive landscape manage-
ment strategies. The capacity building effort spread over 30
years and involved more than 150 young scientists in this
research field.
REFERENCES to this article and Fig. 1 are included on the
IHDP website at
www.ihdp.org/update0302/references.htm
P.S. RAMAKRISHNAN is a Professor at the School of
Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University,
New Delhi, India; he is a member of the IHDP Scientific
Committee and Chair of the Indian National Human
Dimensions Committee; [email protected]
AN INDIAN EXPERIENCETowards an integrative approach to global change research | BY P.S. RAMAKRISHNAN
I N D I A
I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 1 9
national committees
➤
➤
➤ Urbanisation, deforestation, pollution, climate change ... sustainable development at all scalesrepresents perhaps the most daunting challenge that humanity has ever faced. How can we live sus-
tainably on our planet? Science holds many of the answers. Recent research is providing crucial tools
for understanding the ‘earth system’, allowing improved impact assessment, risk prediction, and
development of sustainable technologies.
PrepCom4 in Bali (27 May-7 June 2002) was the last stop on the road to the World Summit on
Sustainable Development (WSSD) in Johannesburg. The multidisciplinary nature of global sustain-
ability made PrepCom4 an excellent opportunity to run a collaborative media campaign by the GEC
programmes, as part of the contribution of the International Council of Science (ICSU) to the
WSSD. To enhance their co-operation, the GEC programmes recently formed the »Earth System
Science Partnership« (ESSP) (see Interview with Jill Jäger, p. 23).
A team of communicators of the ESSP organised an »International Science Roundtable for the
Media: Surviving the Third Millennium«, held during PrepCom4 in Bali. ICSU, a sponsor of the GEC
programmes, provided funding for the event. The roundtable aimed at highlighting the crucial role
science can and should play in sustainable development, using timely results from the ESSP com-
munity.
A panel of international experts gave brief insights into their areas of expertise to an audience of
media representatives, scientists, and delegates to the WSSD. All stories had a SE Asian angle, but
were also of global relevance.
Science and Technology as a Foundation for Sustainable Development was addressed by Gisbert
Glaser (ICSU’s Senior Advisor on Science for Sustainable Development). He emphasised the impor-
tance of scientific knowledge and appropriate technologies in resolving the economic, social and
environmental problems that make current development paths unsustainable, and stressed ICSU’s
role in the WSSD process.
How sustainable is the development of mega-cities in Asia? This was discussed by Shobhakar
Dhakal (IHDP and Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan), based on an inter-
national, IHDP-IT supported study that investigates how ‘Industrial Transformation’ in Asian mega-
cities impacts on the environment (see article p. 8).
When the monsoon and El Nino clash over SE Asia, the Madden-Julian Oscillations (MJOs) may
be a major cause of floods and cyclones in SE Asia and Australia. Matthew Wheeler (WCRP and the
Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre) presented a new technique that promises to give
advance warning of such events.
The destruction of mangrove forests in SE Asia, primarily due to dig ponds for shrimp aquacul-
ture and for wood chips for the rayon industry, is releasing as much CO2 into the atmosphere each
year as 3 million cars. Jin Eong Ong (IGBP and the University of Sains, Malaysia) disclosed the hid-den costs of mangrove destruction and showed ways to a sustainable forestry.
Will tropical forests last? Daniel Murdiyarso (START and the Bogor Agricultural University,
Indonesia) painted a dim picture of deforestation in SE Asia, due to unsustainable forest manage-
ment and illegal logging practices. Science could help in several ways, such as bridging the informa-
tion gap by policy-relevant research and developing a sustainable forest management that benefits
the indigenous people.
Overfishing in Asia has reduced the largest and most commercially preferred marine species to 5
% of their 1930s abundance. Carmen Ablan (DIVERSITAS and the World Fish Center, Malaysia)
explained how a better understanding of the genetic diversity of fish populations might hold the
key to managing marine fish stocks and conserving biodiversity.
In a concluding talk, Robert J. Wasson (IGBP and the Australian National University) gave the
»Big Picture of Sustainability«, summing up the various issues and explaining how science and the
knowledge it creates could help to embark on a path towards sustainable development.
The research presented in Bali was covered in reports by Indonesian and international print and
electronic media and news agencies. For more information on the International Science Roundtable
for the Media go to www.igbp.kva.se/prepcom4/ and www.ihdp.org (What’s New – Press Releases).
ELISABETH DYCK is Information Officer at the IHDP Secretariat; [email protected]
SURVIVING THE THIRD MILLENNIUMInternational Science Roundtable for the Media – Joint Event of ICSU, IGBP, IHDP,
WCRP, DIVERSITAS, and START – 4 June 2002, Bali, Indonesia | BY ELISABETH DYCK
E S S P M E D I A R O U N D T A B L Ein brief
Phot
os:E
.Dyc
k
From left: S. Arai (SecretaryGeneral, IGES), S. Dhakal,A. Morishima (Chair of the
Board, IGES), G. Glaser
M.Wheeler is interviewed by anIndonesian TV station
Jin Eong Ong (left) and W. Eckert of Germany’s
SWR/ARD radio
Jakarta’s radio station 68Hinterviews D. Murdiyarso
R.J. Wasson (left) talking to Reuters’ Dean Yates
2 0 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2
➤
➤➤➤ IHDP SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE
IHDP SC CHAIR. Coleen Heather Vogel (South Africa)
has been appointed as Chair of the IHDP Scientific
Committee (SC) for a term of 3 years, effective 1 July 2002.
She is a Professor at the Department of Geography and
Environmental Studies, University of Witwatersrand,
Johannesburg, South Africa. Previously, Coleen was a mem-
ber of the Scientific Steering Committee of the IHDP/IGBP
Project on Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC).
IHDP SC VICE-CHAIR. M.A. Mohamed Salih(Sudan/The Netherlands), a member of the SC, has been
appointed as Vice-Chair of the IHDP Scientific Committee.
Mohamed is a Professor of Politics of Development at the
Institute of Social Studies in The Hague, and the
Department of Political Science, University of Leiden, The
Netherlands.
NEW IHDP SC MEMBERS. We also welcome three new
members on the Scientific Committee:
Tatiana Kluvankova-Oravska (Slovak Republic), an econo-
mist at the Institute for Forecasting of the Slovak Academy
of Sciences, Bratislava;
Roberto Sanchez-Rodriguez (Mexico), a geographer at the
Department of Environmental Studies, University of
California, Santa Cruz, USA;
Paul L.G. Vlek (The Netherlands), Director for Ecology and
Resource Management at the Center for Development
Research (ZEF) in Bonn.
The SC guides IHDP’s work and research activities. All
appointments, made by IHDP’s sponsoring organisations,
the International Council for Science (ICSU) and the
International Social Science Council (ISSC), are effective as
of 1 July 2002.
➤➤➤ NEWS FROM GECHS
The International Project Office (IPO) of the IHDP
Project on Global Environmental Change and Human
Security (GECHS) has been moved to Carleton University,
Ottawa, Canada. Its new home is within the University’s
Department of Geography and Environmental Studies,
where Mike Brklacich, Chair of the GECHS Scientific
Steering Committee, is located.
Maureen Woodrow has been hired as new Executive
Officer of the GECHS IPO. She has a PhD in sociology and
most recently was a coordinator of research initiatives with
the Institute of the Environment at the University of Ottawa,
working with several community-based environmental
projects. Maureen brings considerable research and project
management experience to the GECHS team. However, a
GECHS presence will remain at the University of Victoria,
with Ann Zurbrigg continuing to work part-time until the
end of November; also, the production of the AVISO
Bulletin will remain in Victoria.
➤➤➤ 23-24 September – Amsterdam, The Netherlands
IHDP-IT Second Workshop for Carbon Flows Between Eastern and Western Europe (CFEWE)Organised by the Institute for Environmental Studies
(IVM) at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and the IHDP-IT
Project, in association with CFEWE partners;
Contact: [email protected]/ivm/research/ihdp-it/implementation/enma.htm
➤➤➤ 6-7 December – Berlin, Germany
2002 Berlin Conference on the Human Dimensions ofGlobal Environmental Change: »Knowledge for theSustainability Transition: The Challenge for SocialScience« endorsed by IHDP-IDGEC and IHDP-IT
Annual Convention of the Environmental Policy &
Global Change Section of the German Political Science
Association
Contact: [email protected]/
➤➤➤ 9-11 December – Vienna, Austria
International Conference on the Social Sciencesand Social Policy in the 21st Century
Organized by the International Social Science Council
(ISSC) in cooperation with UNESCO; co-sponsored by the
Austrian Federal Ministry of Education, Science and
Culture and the Austrian Commission for UNESCO;
Session organised by IHDP on Human Dimensions on
Global Environmental Change Research and the Global
Science-Policy Interface (contact: [email protected])Contact: [email protected]
N E W S / M E E T I N G Sin brief / calendar
IN BRIEF CALENDAR
International Conference on theUrban Dimensions of Environmental Change:Science, Exposures, Policies and Technologies
➤➤➤ 3-6 June 2003, Shanghai, P.R. China
This conference, co-sponsored by IHDP, will examine
causes, impacts, and responses to environmental change in
the world’s major cities and urban areas. Relating to both
the science and the management of urban environmental
change, topics for the conference will include policy, regula-
tion, technology, impact adaptation, mitigation, and reme-
diation.
Specific environmental changes to be addressed include:➤ Environmental Contamination➤ Land Use Change➤ Local and Global Climate Change
The conference is organised by the East China Normal
University, Shanghai, and the Montclair State University,
New Jersey, USA.
Deadline for submission of abstracts: 15 January 2003.
For more information go to
www.montclair.edu/globaled/Shanghai
I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 2 1
GROWING UP IN AN URBANISING WORLD
Louise Chawla (ed.), Earthscan in association with UNESCOpublishing, 2002; 256 pp.cloth ISBN 1853838276 £50.00paper ISBN 1853838284 £18.95 / £16.11 (online)➤ In industrialised countries, over half of all children live in
urban areas, and the same will be true in the developing
world in the near future. Yet, by almost all indicators, cities
are failing to meet the needs of young people, prejudicing
their opportunities as adults. This volume will be of interest
to anyone concerned with how urban environments address
the needs of future generations. More information at
www.earthscan.co.uk
BIODIVERSITY, SUSTAINABILITY AND HUMAN
COMMUNITIES: Protecting Beyond the ProtectedTim O`Riordan and Susanne Stoll-Kleemann (eds.),Cambridge University Press, August 2002; cloth ISBN 0 521 81365 4; £ 45.00 paper ISBN 0 521 89052 7; £ 16.95
➤ Biodiversity is the key indicator
of a healthy planet. Losses of bio-
diversity have become widespread
and current rates are catastrophic
for species and habitat integrity.
Biodiversity, Sustainability and
Human Communities advocates
the preservation of the best
remaining habitats and the
enhancement of new biodiverse
habitats to ensure that they cope
with human impact, climate
change and alien species invasion.
These aims can be achieved by a
mix of strict protection, inclusive
involvement of local people, and by combining livelihoods
and social well being in all future biodiversity management.
More information at www.cambridge.org
HUMAN DIMENSIONS OF THE CARBON CYCLE:
Summary of a WorkshopCommittee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change,National Research Council, Paul C. Stern, Washington:National Academy Press, May 2002; 41 pp.; ➤ The carbon cycle has become interesting to policy makers
because human activities that release carbon-containing
GHG are the primary source of the threat of global warming.
In the US, the carbon cycle has become a major element of
global change research, although so far this effort has not yet
integrated the relevant fields of the social and behavioural
sciences. This report summarizes a November 2001 work-
shop at the National Research Council intended to improve
communication between the relevant research communities
in the natural and social sciences, leading eventually to an
expansion of the carbon cycle programme element in direc-
tions that would better integrate the two domains. It can be
read on-line or ordered at www.nap.edu
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE:
Options and OpportunitiesDaniel C. Esty and Maria H. Ivanova (eds.), Yale School ofForestry & Environmental Studies, July 2002; ISBN 0-9707882-2-3➤ This volume provides an analysis of various ways to manage
our increasing ecological interdependence, lays out options
for strengthening global environmen-
tal governance, and includes a chapter
by Sylvia Karlsson (IHDP) on »The
North-South Knowledge Divide:
Consequences for Global Environ-
mental Governance«. The authors
urge countries participating in the
World Summit on Sustainable
Development to seize the opportunity
and demonstrate a commitment to
action with four concrete initiatives
focusing on: (1) global environmental
data and information; (2) financing
for sustainable development; (3) tech-
nology promotion; and (4) exploration of options for
strengthening global environmental governance.
Chapter PDFs are available at
www.yale.edu/environment/publications/geg/index.html
NEW TOOLS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION:
Education, Information, and Voluntary MeasuresCommittee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change,National Research Council, T. Dietz and P.C. Stern (eds.),Washington: National Academy Press, June 2002; ➤ Many believe that environmental regulation has passed a
point of diminishing returns: that the quick fixes have been
achieved and the sources of pollution are shifting from large
»point sources« to more diffuse sources that are more diffi-
cult and expensive to regulate. The political climate has also
changed in the United States since the 1970s in ways that
provide additional impetus to seek alternatives to regulation.
This book examines the potential of some of these »new
tools« that emphasise education, information, and voluntary
measures. It can be read on-line or ordered at www.nap.edu.
TRADITIONAL ECOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE FOR
MANAGING BIOSPHERE RESERVES IN SOUTH AND
CENTRAL ASIAN REGION
Ramakrishnan, P.S., Rai, R.K., Katwal, R.P.S. andMehndiratta, S. (eds.), UNESCO and Oxford & IBH, NewDelhi, 2002; 536 pp.This UNESCO initiative emphasises on the role of Traditional
Ecological Knowledge (TEK) for biosphere management in
South and Central Asia, based on a number of case studies
including India, Nepal and Bhutan. The volume, co-edited by
IHDP-SC member P.S. Ramakrishnan, emphasises the role of
understanding and validating TEK at the direct usage level,
and more importantly at the intersection of ecological and
social processes that impact on ecosystems. The authors call
for an integration of TEK into the ‘formal knowledge’ system,
which has implications for biosphere reserve management
with community participation.
N E W B O O K S
2 2 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2
publications
PUBLICATIONS
Q: Jill, when you look back, how did IHDP develop duringthe past years?
The importance of human dimensions research has
become increasingly recognised in recent years. It is clear
that understanding the role of humans in the Earth System
is central to dealing with the issues of global environmental
change (GEC) and, more broadly, of sustainable develop-
ment. The core projects of IHDP have made great strides in
the implementation of their research agendas. On this basis
it has become possible to increase collaboration with the
other international GEC research programmes. At the same
time, through the Open Meetings of the human dimensions
research community (Japan 1999 and Rio de Janeiro, 2001)
we have been able to broaden our research community,
increase the involvement of young scholars and get a clearer
view of the challenges facing this area of research. The Open
Science Meeting in Amsterdam last year was a major mile-
stone in integrating human dimensions research into the
broader agenda. Finally, I think we have made significant
progress in our capacity-building activities, and this remains
a major objective of the programme.
Q: How is the collaboration with the other GEC pro-grammes proceeding?
The central element of collaboration is the Earth SystemScience Partnership (ESSP), which has been discussed by
the Chairs and Directors of the GEC programmes at their
annual meetings over the last three years. The ESSP is an
informal partnership that emphasises the integration of the
work going on within the individual programmes. This inte-
gration is taking place in various fora – first and foremost in
the joint projects on carbon, food systems and water, but
also through START, joint sponsorship of projects, e.g., the
IGBP-IHDP joint sponsorship of the LUCC project, the
activities of »The Oslo Group«, which has been addressing
the methodological challenges of integration and the work
of the IGBP GAIM (Global Analysis, Integration and
Modelling) project.
Q: What would you consider your greatest challenge? Whatwere the most exciting and successful events?
The greatest challenge is still to secure stable and ade-
quate funding for the programme as a whole. Increasingly,
however, this challenge cannot be met alone. The ESSP will
need to develop a strategy for funding of our integrated
research, going beyond the usual sources of funding, to work
with private foundations and potentially even industrial
sponsorship. The International Project Offices of the IHDP
projects are still chronically underfunded and while the sup-
port, in particular from Germany and the USA, has been
essential for the successes of the
Secretariat in initiating and
coordinating research over the
past three years, the Secretariat
cannot meet the challenges of
implementing a strong science
agenda and building essential
capacity, without further sup-
port from a broader range of
donors. I have probably spent
about one third of my time on
this challenge over the past three years.
In terms of exciting and successful events, I have men-
tioned a few before – the Open Meetings of the human
dimensions research community and the Amsterdam Open
Science Conference. In addition, the International Human
Dimensions Workshops that took place in Bonn in 2000 and
2002 have been truly exciting, inasmuch as we stimulated a
network of young scholars from developing countries, and
we have benefited a lot from the engagement of many of
these colleagues in follow-up activities. For me, the partici-
pation in the Initiative on Science and Technology for
Sustainability (ISTS) was also an important contribution
that IHDP could make to the evolving agenda in this area.
Q: What was IHDP’s role in this Initiative?
IHDP was the host and co-organiser of one of the ISTS
regional workshops held in 2001/2002 to discuss the core
science questions, the research strategy and the infrastruc-
tural requirements for »Sustainability Science«. IHDP has a
lot to offer in terms of experience with integrated, interdis-
ciplinary, »place-based«, solution-driven research.
Q: A final question: what are your own plans for the future?
I have at least two book projects that are begging for
completion – a book, co-edited with Alex Farrell, on the
design of global environmental assessments and a book for
START, co-edited with Greg Knight, on Integrated Regional
Assessment. I worked from 1979 until 1994 as a consultant,
and I plan to revive »Jäger International« in order to carry
my interests forward. My main interests remain in the link-
age of knowledge and action, and the »sustainability science«
agenda has provided with me with new insights that I wish
to pursue. Finally, I suggested »Onward and Upward« as the
title of this interview – this is borrowed from a series of arti-
cles in the New Yorker entitled »Onward and Upward in the
Garden« – IHDP will, I am sure, continue onward and
upward, and I will devote more time to my beloved garden.
INTERVIEW BY ELISABETH DYCK
ONWARD AND UPWARDJill Jäger became the second IHDP Executive Director in April 1999,
succeeding Larry Kohler. As her term of directorship comes to a close, UPDATE
asked her to share some thoughts about her time at IHDP.
J I L L J Ä G E R
I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 2 | 2 3
interview
Photo: P. Pommerening
➤
IHDP SECRETARIAT
• IHDP Secretariat:Jill Jäger, Executive Director
Walter-Flex-Str. 3
53113 Bonn, Germany
Phone: +49-228-739050
Fax: +49-228-739054
www.ihdp.org
IHDP CORE PROJECTS
➤ GECHS
• Global EnvironmentalChange and Human Security c/o Maureen Woodrow
Executive Officer
GECHS International Project Office
Dept. of Geography &
Environmental Studies,
Carleton University
1125 Colonel By Drive
Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada
www.gechs.org
➤ IDGEC
• Institutional Dimensions ofGlobal Environmental Change c/o Syma Ebbin, Executive Officer
IDGEC International Project Office
6214 Fairchild, Dartmouth College,
Hanover, NH 03755, USA
www.dartmouth.edu/~idgec
➤ IT
• Industrial Transformation c/o Anna J. Wieczorek,
Executive Officer
IT International Project Office
Institute of Environmental Studies
De Boelelaan 1087
1081 HV Amsterdam
The Netherlands
www.vu.nl/ivm/research/ihdp-it/
➤ LUCC
• Land-Use and Land-CoverChange c/o Helmut Geist, Executive Officer
LUCC International Project Office
University of Louvain
Place L. Pasteur 3
1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
www.geo.ucl.ac.be/LUCC
JOINT PROJECTS
➤ GECAFS
• Global EnvironmentalChange and Food Systems c/o John Ingram, Executive OfficerGECAFS International ProjectOffice, NERC-Centre for Ecology &Hydrology, Wallingford OX 10 8BB, UK
www.gecafs.org
➤ GCP
• Global Carbon Projectc/o Kathy A. Hibbard, Interim
Executive Officer
University of New Hampshire
Morse Hall, Durham, NH 03824
USA
http://gaim.sr.unh.edu/cjp/
➤ Water
• Water Joint Projectc/o Sylvia Karlsson
IHDP Liaison Officer
IHDP Secretariat, Bonn, Germany
IHDP SCIENTIFIC COMMITTEE (SC)
➤ Chair
• Coleen Heather VogelDept. of Geography & Env. Studies
University of Witwatersrand
Johannesburg, South Africa
➤ Vice Chair
• M.A. Mohamed SalihInstitute of Social Studies
The Hague, The Netherlands
➤ Past-Chairs
• Eckart Ehlers Institutes of Geography
University of Bonn
Bonn, Germany
• Arild Underdahl Rector, University of Oslo
Oslo, Norway
➤ Members
• William C. ClarkJFK School of Government
Harvard University
Cambridge, MA, USA
• Carl FolkeCNM, Stockholm University
Stockholm, Sweden
• Gilberto C. GallopinEconomic Commission for Latin
America & the Caribbean (ECLAC)
Santiago, Chile
• Carlo J. JaegerPotsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research (PIK)
Potsdam, Germany
• Tatiana Kluvankova-OravskaInstitute for Forecasting
Slovak Academy of Sciences
Bratislava, Slovak Republic
• Elinor OstromCenter for the Study of
Institutions, Population &
Environmental Change
Indiana University
Bloomington, IN, USA
• Xizhe PengInstitute of Population Research
Fudan Unviersity
Shanghai, P.R. China
• P.S. RamakrishnanJawaharlal Nehru University
New Delhi, India
• Roberto Sanchez-RodriguezUniversity of California
Santa Cruz, CA, USA
• Paul L.G. VlekCenter for Development
Research (ZEF)
Bonn, Germany
EX-OFFICO MEMBERSIHDP SCIENTIFICCOMMITTEE
➤ ICSU
• Gordon McBean Institute for Catastrophic Loss
Reduction, University of Western
Ontario, London, ON, Canada
➤ I S S C• Kurt Pawlik Institute for Psychology I
University of Hamburg, Germany
➤ DIVERSITAS
• Michel LoreauEcole Normale Superieure
Laboratoire d'Ecologie
Paris, France
➤ IGBP
• Guy Brasseur Max-Planck-Institute for
Meteorology
Hamburg, Germany
➤ START (alternating)
• Sulochana GadgilIndian Institute of Science
& Oceanic Sciences
Bangalore, India
• Graeme I. PearmanCSIRO Atmospheric Research
Aspendale, Australia
➤ WCRP
• Peter LemkeAlfred-Wegener-Institute
for Polar and Marine Research
Bremerhaven, Germany
➤ GECHS
• Michael Brklacich Carleton University
Ottawa, Canada
➤ IDGEC
• Oran R. Young Dartmouth College,
Hanover, NH, USA
➤ IT
• Pier Vellinga Dean, Faculty of Life and Earth
Sciences
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
The Netherlands
➤ LUCC
• Eric Lambin Dept. of Geography
University of Louvain
Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
SOCIAL SCIENCE LIAISON OFFICER
• João M. MoraisIGBP Secretariat
The Royal Swedish Academy of
Sciences, P.O. Box 50 005
10405 Stockholm, Sweden
C O N T A C T A D D R E S S E Saddresses
S U B S C R I P T I O N
➤ For a free subscription to
this newsletter, write to the
IHDP Secretariat at the
above address
or send an e-mail to:
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