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Update of Tributary Concentration and
Loading Estimates to Lake Champlain
Maurie Clark, Annie Procaccini, and Jamie Van Clief
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We had a tool, not a problem● Weighted regression on time, discharge, and
season (WRTDS) model● Exploration and Graphics for RivEr Trends
(EGRET) package in R Studio coding statistical program
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Learning experience...
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● Phosphorus Loadingo Eutrophic conditions exist in the lake including,
South Lake, St. Albans Bay, and Missisquoi Bay segments
● TMDLo 2002 loading estimates turned down by EPA
● Outdated models… revisit your tools (Philip Halterman)
Background… we found a problem
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Tributaries of interest
TributaryTotal Phosphorus
Mean Load 1000kg/yr
Mean Concentration mg/l
Winooski 152.7 .077
Missisquoi 113.6 .074
Lamoille 141.7 .099
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● Using the new statistical software to evaluate phosphorus trends in and among seasons
● their causationo aided by Geographical Information
Systems (GIS)● make future recommendations
Overall Goals, How we used the model
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● EGRET package-Exploration and Graphics for RivEr Trends
● WRTDS- weighted regressions on time, discharge and season.o True condition estimate
understand history of nutrientso Flow normalized estimate
evaluate loading/management process less related to river flow
R Studio
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● 20 years of data● 200 samples at each
sampling siteo 100 samples needed for
estimations● Complete record of
daily discharge
Characteristics needed for analysis
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Patuxent River, Maryland (Hirsch et al. 2010)
Why the need for these models?T
P
Winooski River, Vermont (Us 2015)
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WRTDS Model- 1st Approach: “True Condition Estimates”
Unsampled dayst0, Q0, unknown C0
Sampled daysti, Qi, unknown Ci
How to estimate a concentration?(C0)
To: estimate the expected value of concentration for any given date (t0) and discharge (Q0)
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WRTDS Model- 1st Approach: “True Condition Estimates”
Unsampled dayst0, Q0, unknown C0
Sampled daysti, Qi, unknown Ci
Sift through and give weight to the sampled days data How to estimate a concentration?(C0)
Store in the weighted regression
Run regression. Get this equation, use with t0 and Q0
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Unsampled dayst0, Q0, unknown C0
Sampled daysti, Qi, unknown Ci
Sift through and give weight to the sampled days data How to estimate a concentration?(C0)
Store in the weighted regression
Run regression. Get this equation, use with t0 and Q0
Flux0 = C0 x Q0
ln(c)=β₀+ β₁ᵗ+ β₂ln(Q)+ β₃sin(2πt) +β₄cos(2πt) +ɛ
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WRTDS Model- 1st Approach: “True Condition Estimates”
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WRTDS- 2nd Approach: “Flow-normalized estimates”
To: estimate concentration and flux in a manner that removes variation that arises from stochasticity in discharge
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WRTDS- 2nd Approach: “Flow-normalized estimates”
Discharge: viewed on any given day as a random sample of the discharges that may have happened on that day
For April 21st, 2015P(Q04/21/2015) =P(Q04/21/2014) =P(Q04/21/2013) =P(Q…) =P(Q04/21/1972)
To: estimate concentration and flux in a manner that removes variation that arise from stochasticity in discharge
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WRTDS- 2nd Approach: “Flow-normalized estimates”
To compute FN C0 for April 21st, 2015 with a 31-year record of discharge:
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To compute FN C0 for April 21st, 2015 with a 31-year record of discharge:
Method estimates 31 values of concentration using WRTDS modelUses the T0 but Q04/21/2015, Q04/21/2014, Q.... 04/21/1972
Take the average of the 31 estimated concentration or flux values
Flow-normalized concentration/flux
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Flow-normalized concentration
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Drainage area: 850 square miles 686 square miles1,044 square miles
Annual Flow Normalized Graphs of the Missisquoi, Lamoille and Winooski Rivers
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Land Cover Assessment
● 2001 Lake Champlain Basin Simplified Land Cover Dataseto Developed for accurate mapping
of land uses, which influence phosphorus loading
o 19 NLCD classes -> 8 classeso Derived: National Land Cover
Dataset (NLCD) and 2001 imagery
o 30m pixel cellso Overall 88% accuracy
assessment
● Overlaid by watershed and stream corridor datao HUC - 8 watershedso 800m riparian buffer
● Statistics Derived using ArcGIS
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Watershed Land Cover
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Stream Buffer Land Cover
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● 2009 Digital Elevation Model (DEM)o 10m cell size National Elevation Dataset
● ArcGIS Processingo Generate a slope raster, which displays terrain
steepness within the stream corridorso Assess the slope distribution using 3D analyst
5 slope classes by 15° increments
Stream CorridorGradient Assessment
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Missisquoi River
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Lamoille River
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Winooski River
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Seasonality
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Conclusions
● This model supports prioritizing management practices to specific tributaries and seasons
● Flow Normalization is an applicable tool● Revisiting WQS and TMDLs● Ecological timing