-
Update on COVID-19 ProjectionsScience Advisory and Modelling Consensus Tables
January 12, 2021
-
Key Findings• Growth in cases has accelerated and is over 7% on the worst days.• Almost 40% of long-term care homes have active COVID-19 outbreaks. Since January 1st 198 LTC
residents and 2 LTC staff have died of COVID-19. Forecasts suggest more deaths in wave 2 in long-term care than in wave 1.
• COVID-19 ICU occupancy is now over 400 beds. Surgeries are being cancelled and the access to care deficit will continue to increase with real consequences for health.
• Mobility, and contacts between people have not decreased with the current restrictions. Survey data show that the majority of Ontarians are helping limit spread by following them. However, case numbers will not decline until more of the population follows their example.
• A new variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 (B117) could drive much higher case counts, ICU occupancy and mortality if community transmission occurs. The doubling time for cases could drop by more than 2/3. This new variant is now in Ontario.
• Without significant reductions in contacts, the health system will be overwhelmed and mortality will exceed the first wave totals before a vaccine has time to take effect.
2
-
All Other PHUs, 32
Ottawa, 80Simcoe Muskoka, 72
Hamilton, 158
Brant, 103
Halton, 115
Lambton, 253
Peel, 232
Windsor-Essex, 323
York, 197
Toronto, 180
PROTECT (cases ≥ 10)
Haldimand-Norfolk, 106
Chatham-Kent, 126
Eastern, 142
Durham, 145
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph, 128
Southwestern, 145
Middlesex-London, 132Waterloo, 145
RESTRICT (cases ≥ 25)
CONTROL (cases ≥ 40)
Niagara, 182
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Aug
1
Aug
8
Aug
15
Aug
22
Aug
29
Sep
5
Sep
12
Sep
19
Sep
26
Oct
3
Oct
10
Oct
17
Oct
24
Oct
31
Nov
7
Nov
14
Nov
21
Nov
28
Dec
5
Dec
12
Dec
19
Dec
26
Jan
2
Wee
kly
new
cas
es p
er 1
00,0
00 re
siden
ts (7
-day
avg
.)
Total new cases per 100,000 residents per week across PHUs
Data source: Case and Contact Management System, data up to January 8
Oct 9 Modified
Stage 2 begins in Toronto, Ottawa, and Peel
Sept 17In-person
classes for all major
school boards
Sept 25Restrictions on bars and restaurants
Oct 16 Modified
Stage 2 begins in
York
Nov 7COVID-19 RESPONSE
FRAMEWORKDurham, Halton, Eastern
to Protect. Ottawa and York to Restrict. Peel to
Control + local restrictions. Toronto remains in
Modified Stage 2.
Nov 23Toronto and Peel enter 28-day lockdown
Dec 14York and Windsor-Essex enter lockdown
Recent data subject to
change
Dec 4Middlesex-London + T-Bay to Restrict. Haliburton to Protect
Sept 19Limits on social gatheringsizes
Dec 26Province-wide lockdown14 days N. ON28 days S. ON
3
-
Middlesex-London, 6%Hamilton, 6%
Ottawa, 5%
Eastern, 7%
Peel, 13%
Durham, 8%
Windsor-Essex, 14%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph, 5%
All Other PHUs, 4%
York, 10%
Southwestern, 7%
PROTECT (positivity ≥ 0.5%)
Halton, 7%
RESTRICT (positivity ≥ 1.3%)
CONTROL (positivity ≥ 2.5%)Simcoe Muskoka, 3%
Lambton, 10%
Chatham-Kent, 9%
Waterloo, 7%
Haldimand-Norfolk, 5%
Toronto, 10%
Niagara, 6%Brant, 5%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Aug
1
Aug
8
Aug
15
Aug
22
Aug
29
Sep
5
Sep
12
Sep
19
Sep
26
Oct
3
Oct
10
Oct
17
Oct
24
Oct
31
Nov
7
Nov
14
Nov
21
Nov
28
Dec
5
Dec
12
Dec
19
Dec
26
Jan
2
% p
ositi
vity
of d
aily
test
ing
episo
des (
7-da
y av
g.)
COVID-19 testing % positivity across PHUs
Data source: Ontario Laboratories Information System (OLIS), data up to January 4
Sept 24Testing guidance update
Oct 6 Assessment Centres move to advance booking
Oct 1School & childcare screening guidance change
Nov 7COVID-19 RESPONSE
FRAMEWORKDurham, Halton, Eastern
to Protect. Ottawa and York to Restrict. Peel to
Control + local restrictions. Toronto remains in
Modified Stage 2.
Nov 23Toronto and Peel
enter 28-day lockdown
Dec 14York and Windsor-Essex enter lockdown
Dec 4Middlesex-London + T-Bay to Restrict. Haliburton to Protect
Dec 26Province-wide lockdown14 days N. ON28 days S. ON
4
-
Halton, 90%Hamilton, 91%
Lambton, 63%
Haldimand-Norfolk, 84%Durham, 81%
Middlesex-London, 86%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph, 66%
All Other PHUs, 77%
York, 75%
Toronto, 92%
Southwestern, 73%
Eastern, 85%
Peel, 86%
Waterloo, 76%
Simcoe Muskoka, 71%Windsor-Essex, 72%
Brant, 75%
Niagara, 84%
Chatham-Kent, 84%Ottawa, 84%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Aug
1
Aug
8
Aug
15
Aug
22
Aug
29
Sep
5
Sep
12
Sep
19
Sep
26
Oct
3
Oct
10
Oct
17
Oct
24
Oct
31
Nov
7
Nov
14
Nov
21
Nov
28
Dec
5
Dec
12
Dec
19
Dec
26
Jan
2
% o
f tes
ting
episo
des
with
resu
lts re
leas
ed w
ithin
2 d
ays o
f tes
t (7-
day
avg.
)Percent of COVID test results returned within 2 days across PHUs
Data source: Ontario Laboratories Information System (OLIS), data up to January 4
Sept 24Testing guidance update
Oct 6 Assessment Centres move to advance booking
Oct 1School & childcare screening guidance change
Nov 7COVID-19 RESPONSE
FRAMEWORKDurham, Halton, Eastern
to Protect. Ottawa and York to Restrict. Peel to
Control + local restrictions. Toronto remains in
Modified Stage 2.
Nov 23Toronto and Peel
enter 28-day lockdown
Dec 14York and Windsor-Essex enter lockdown
Dec 4Middlesex-London + T-Bay to Restrict. Haliburton to Protect
Dec 26Province-wide lockdown14 days N. ON28 days S. ON
5
-
Weekly % positivity by age group
Legend:
Data Source: Ontario Laboratory Information System (OLIS), MOH – extracted from SAS VA Jan 10Note: Includes all data submitted to OLIS up to January 7th 2021. The last six days are considered interim data (week 52) and subject to changeWeekly % positivity = total number of positive tests within the week (based on reported date)/COVID tests within the week
Weekly % positivity by age group
6
-
Data Source: Ministry of Long-Term Care Tracker, Dec 19th extraction based on data reported up to 3:30 pm Jan 9th, 2021. Data are self-reported by the long-term care homes to the Ministry of Long-Term Care. Daily case and death figures may not immediately match the numbers posted by the local public health units (i.e. iPHIS database) due to lags in reporting time.
7
Cases and cumulative mortality LTC increasing (198 resident and 2 staff deaths since January 1st)
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
Sep 1 Sep15
Oct 1 Oct15
Nov1
Nov15
Dec 1 Dec15
Jan 1
COVID-19 cases and deaths for LTC residents and staff
Daily Active Cases Residents
Daily Active Cases Staff
Cumulative deaths since Sept 1
Current status
252 LTC homes have COVID-19 outbreaks (40% of all homes) with 105 outbreaks involving resident cases
Outbreaks are occurring across almost all public health units, with 91 outbreaks (37%) occurring in priority vaccination areas of Toronto, Peel, York and Windsor-Essex
Since January 1st, 198 LTC residents have died of COVID-19 and 2 staff deaths have been reported
Forecasts suggest there will be more LTC residents deaths in wave 2 than in wave 1 (1,815 total deaths)
-
1,119 actual deaths as of Jan 9, 2021
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Cum
ulat
ive
LTC
resid
ent C
OVI
D-19
dea
ths
Date
Projected and actual cumulative LTC resident COVID-19 deaths (Sep 1, 2020-Feb 14, 2021)
Projected deaths
Actual cumulative deaths (MLTC tracker)
Last
day
of f
orec
ast:
Feb
14, 2
021
2,639 projected deaths as of Feb 14, 2021 (worst case)
Projections: second wave cumulative LTC resident COVID-19 deaths >2,600 by Feb 14 in worst case scenario
8Predictions: MOH Capacity Planning and Analytics Division Data: (Cumulative Deaths): MLTC Tracker Tool
-
Public Health Unit2226 Algoma Public Health Unit
2227 Brant County Health Unit
2230 Durham Region Health Department
2233 Grey Bruce Health Unit
2234 Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit
2235 Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit
2236 Halton Region Health Department
2237 Hamilton Public Health Services
2238 Hastings & Prince Edward Counties Health Unit
2240 Chatham-Kent Health Unit
2241 Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Health Unit
2242 Lambton Health Unit
2243 Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit
2244 Middlesex-London Health Unit
2246 Niagara Region Public Health Department
2247 North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit
2249 Northwestern Health Unit
2251 Ottawa Public Health
2253 Peel Public Health
2255 Peterborough Public Health
2256 Porcupine Health Unit
2257 Renfrew County & District Health Unit
2258 Eastern Ontario Health Unit
2260 Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit
2261 Sudbury and District Health Unit
2262 Thunder Bay District Health Unit
2263 Timiskaming Health Unit
2265 Region of Waterloo, Public Health
2266 Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Health Unit
2268 Windsor-Essex County Health Unit
2270 York Region Public Health
3895 Toronto Public Health
4913 Southwestern Public Health
5183 Huron Perth Health Unit
Long-term Care OutbreaksJuly 1, 2020
Size of outbreak (staff and residents)
9
-
Public Health Unit2226 Algoma Public Health Unit
2227 Brant County Health Unit
2230 Durham Region Health Department
2233 Grey Bruce Health Unit
2234 Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit
2235 Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit
2236 Halton Region Health Department
2237 Hamilton Public Health Services
2238 Hastings & Prince Edward Counties Health Unit
2240 Chatham-Kent Health Unit
2241 Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Health Unit
2242 Lambton Health Unit
2243 Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit
2244 Middlesex-London Health Unit
2246 Niagara Region Public Health Department
2247 North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit
2249 Northwestern Health Unit
2251 Ottawa Public Health
2253 Peel Public Health
2255 Peterborough Public Health
2256 Porcupine Health Unit
2257 Renfrew County & District Health Unit
2258 Eastern Ontario Health Unit
2260 Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit
2261 Sudbury and District Health Unit
2262 Thunder Bay District Health Unit
2263 Timiskaming Health Unit
2265 Region of Waterloo, Public Health
2266 Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Health Unit
2268 Windsor-Essex County Health Unit
2270 York Region Public Health
3895 Toronto Public Health
4913 Southwestern Public Health
5183 Huron Perth Health Unit
Long-term Care OutbreaksOctober 1, 2020
Size of outbreak (staff and residents)
10
-
Public Health Unit2226 Algoma Public Health Unit
2227 Brant County Health Unit
2230 Durham Region Health Department
2233 Grey Bruce Health Unit
2234 Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit
2235 Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit
2236 Halton Region Health Department
2237 Hamilton Public Health Services
2238 Hastings & Prince Edward Counties Health Unit
2240 Chatham-Kent Health Unit
2241 Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Health Unit
2242 Lambton Health Unit
2243 Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit
2244 Middlesex-London Health Unit
2246 Niagara Region Public Health Department
2247 North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit
2249 Northwestern Health Unit
2251 Ottawa Public Health
2253 Peel Public Health
2255 Peterborough Public Health
2256 Porcupine Health Unit
2257 Renfrew County & District Health Unit
2258 Eastern Ontario Health Unit
2260 Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit
2261 Sudbury and District Health Unit
2262 Thunder Bay District Health Unit
2263 Timiskaming Health Unit
2265 Region of Waterloo, Public Health
2266 Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Health Unit
2268 Windsor-Essex County Health Unit
2270 York Region Public Health
3895 Toronto Public Health
4913 Southwestern Public Health
5183 Huron Perth Health Unit
Long-term Care OutbreaksJanuary 7, 2021
Size of outbreak (staff and residents)
11
-
Despite some reduced mobility from “Grey Zone” restrictions, there was a pre-holiday spike
12Analysis: UofT, St. Michael’s Hospital, ICES
Data: Google% change relative to January 2020
-
“Grey Zone” restrictions did not affect the proportion of people working from home; holiday decreases are not likely to persist
13Analysis: UofT, St. Michael’s Hospital, ICES
Data: Google% change relative to January 2020
-
With current restrictions, almost 2/3 of the population are acting in a way that will decrease COVID-19 spread
• Are people in your neighbourhood physically distancing?
• In the last 4 weeks, how many people outside your household visited your house (meal, celebration, stay over)?
• And if so, did you observe restrictions?
14
3 or more 1-2 None
Didn’t observe restrictions Observed restrictionsSurvey: Fields Institute
Occasionally or never Most of the time/sometimes All the time
-
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
12-21 12-28 01-04 01-11 01-18 01-25 02-01 02-08
Daily New Cases (Other Countries Aligned at 230/1M Population/Day)
ON - Daily ON - 7-Day Mean ON 0%↑ (Constant) ON 1%↑ ON 3%↑ ON 5%↑
ON 7%↑ FRA GER NLD UK
As happened in other jurisdictions, case growth continues under current levels of restrictions
15
ON 3%↑
ON 1%↑
ON 0%↑
ON 7%↑
Predictions informed by modeling from McMasterU, Fields Institute, COVID-19 ModCollab, PHO; recent growth in new daily cases; reported cases in peer jurisdictions
Data (Observed Cases): covid-19.ontario.ca; https://ourworldindata.org
Note: Ontario reached 23/100,000 cases between 1.5 and 3 months after these countries
ON 5%↑
https://ourworldindata.org/
-
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
ICU
Bed
s Occ
upie
d w
ith C
OVI
D-19
Pat
ient
s (pe
r Day
)
ON Observed ON Predicted ON 0%↑ (Constant) ON 1%↑ ON 3%↑ ON 5%↑ ON 7%↑
Projections: COVID-19 ICU occupancy around 500 beds in mid-January, potentially over 1,000 beds in February in more severe, but realistic scenarios
16
ON 0%↑
ON 1%↑
ON 3%↑
ON 5%↑
ON 7%↑
Predictions: COVID-19 ModCollab. Data (Observed ICU Occupancy): CCSO
150 beds
At 9% growth rate (not shown): >2,000 occupancy Feb 5
-
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
01-Aug 08-Aug 15-Aug 22-Aug 29-Aug 05-Sep 12-Sep 19-Sep 26-Sep 03-Oct 10-Oct 17-Oct 24-Oct 31-Oct 07-Nov 14-Nov 21-Nov 28-Nov 05-Dec 12-Dec 19-Dec 26-Dec 02-Jan
Confirmed COVID19 Acute Inpatients (excluding ICU)Confirmed COVID19 ICU Patients
17Data Sources: Daily Bed Census Summary COVID-19 Report + Critical Care Information System, extracted January 9
Over the past 4 weeks:72.2% increase in hospitalizations
61.2% increase in ICU patients
COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions continue to climb
-
One quarter of hospitals have no ICU beds free, another quarter have only 1 or 2 beds free
18
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%Co
rnw
all C
omm
unity
Hos
pita
l n =
11
Ham
ilton
Hea
lth S
cien
ces G
ener
al n
= 3
1Hu
mbe
r Riv
er W
ilson
n =
46
Mar
kham
Sto
uffv
ille
n =
15M
icha
el G
arro
n Ho
spita
l n =
17
Nia
gara
Hea
lth S
yste
m S
t. Ca
thar
ines
n =
14
Oak
ville
Tra
falg
ar M
emor
ial H
ospi
tal n
= 2
1Q
uint
e He
alth
care
Bel
levi
lle n
= 1
8Sc
arbo
roug
h Ce
nten
ary
n =
20St
. Tho
mas
-Elg
in G
ener
al H
ospi
tal n
= 8
Stra
tfor
d Ge
nera
l Hos
pita
l n =
6Su
nnyb
rook
Hea
lth S
cien
ces C
entr
e n
= 52
Trill
ium
Cre
dit V
alle
y Ho
spita
l n =
24
Will
iam
Osle
r Eto
bico
ke C
ampu
s n =
14
Win
dsor
Reg
iona
l Met
ropo
litan
Cam
pus n
= 1
9Ch
atha
m-K
ent n
= 1
0Ge
orgi
an B
ay G
ener
al H
ospi
tal n
= 6
Mac
kenz
ie H
ealth
n =
30
Oril
lia S
oldi
ers M
emor
ial H
ospi
tal n
= 8
Sout
hlak
e Re
gion
al H
ealth
Cen
tre
n =
18U
nity
Hea
lth S
t. M
icha
el's
n =
29Bl
uew
ater
Hea
lth S
arni
a Ge
nera
l Hos
pita
l n =
14
Cam
brid
ge M
emor
ial H
ospi
tal n
= 1
2Gr
ey B
ruce
Hea
lth S
ervi
ces O
wen
Sou
nd n
= 6
Guel
ph G
ener
al H
ospi
tal n
= 1
0Ha
milt
on H
ealth
Sci
ence
s Jur
avin
ski H
ospi
tal n
= 2
3Ki
ngst
on H
ealth
Sci
ence
s Cen
tre
n =
33
Que
ensw
ay -
Carle
ton
Hosp
ital n
= 1
2Ro
yal V
icto
ria R
egio
nal H
ealth
Cen
tre
n =
15Sc
arbo
roug
h Bi
rchm
ount
n =
15
St. M
ary'
s Gen
eral
Hos
pita
l n =
13
The
Ott
awa
Hosp
ital C
ivic
Cam
pus n
= 2
9U
HN T
oron
to W
este
rn H
ospi
tal n
= 3
3U
nity
Hea
lth S
t. Jo
seph
's n
= 18
Bran
tfor
d Ge
nera
l Hos
pita
l n =
15
Broc
kvill
e Ge
near
l Cha
rles S
t n =
10
Gran
d Ri
ver K
itche
ner W
ater
loo
n =
20Ha
lton
Heal
thca
re M
ilton
Dist
rict H
ospi
tal
n =
8He
alth
Sci
ence
s Nor
th n
= 1
4Ho
pita
l Mon
tfor
t n =
12
Jose
ph B
rant
Hos
pita
l n =
24
Lake
ridge
Hea
lth A
jax
n =
13La
kerid
ge H
ealth
Osh
awa
n =
32LH
SC U
nive
rsity
Cam
pus n
= 2
5LH
SC V
icto
ria C
ampu
s n =
31
Mou
nt S
inai
Hos
pita
l n =
21
Nia
gara
Hea
lth S
yste
m G
reat
er N
iaga
ra n
= 1
5N
orth
Bay
Reg
iona
l Hea
lth C
entr
e n
= 16
Nor
th Y
ork
Gene
ral H
ospi
tal n
= 2
3Pe
mbr
oke
Regi
onal
Hos
pita
l Inc
. n =
9Pe
terb
orou
gh R
egio
nal H
ospi
tal D
rive
n =
28Ro
ss M
emor
ial H
ospi
tal n
- 9
Saul
t Are
a Ho
spita
l n =
13
Scar
boro
ugh
Gene
ral n
= 2
9St
Jose
ph's
Heal
thca
re S
yste
m C
harlt
on n
= 2
7Th
e O
ttaw
a Ho
spita
l Gen
eral
Cam
pus n
= 2
9Th
unde
r Bay
Reg
iona
l Hea
lth S
cien
ces C
entr
e n
= 22
Trill
ium
Miss
issau
ga H
ospi
tal n
= 3
7U
HN T
oron
to G
ener
al H
ospi
tal n
= 3
8W
illia
m O
sler B
ram
pton
Cam
pus n
= 2
4W
inds
or R
egio
nal O
uelle
tte
Cam
pus n
= 2
0W
oods
tock
Gen
eral
Hos
pita
l n =
12
0 Free Beds 1 Free Bed 2 Free Beds 3+ Free Beds
Perc
enta
ge o
f L3
MSI
CU B
eds O
ccup
ied
Percentage of Ontario L3 Medical Surgical ICU Beds Occupied on January 8, 2021, by Number of Available Beds
Other ICU Patients Patients with COVID-19
=
100% Occupancy85% Occupancy
-
Access to care continues to decline below 2019 levels
Dec. 21 to 27 holiday fluctuation in surgical volumes
19
Chart1
Dec 30 to Jan 52020Dec 30 to Jan 52020Dec 30 to Jan 52020Dec 30 to Jan 5Dec 30 to Jan 5Dec 30 to Jan 5 2020Dec 30 to Jan 512162224Dec 30 to Jan 52020
Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12 2020Jan 6 to Jan 1212162224Jan 6 to Jan 12
Jan 13 to Jan 19Jan 13 to Jan 19Jan 13 to Jan 19Jan 13 to Jan 19Jan 13 to Jan 19Jan 13 to Jan 19 2020Jan 13 to Jan 19Jan 13 to Jan 19
Jan 20 to Jan 26Jan 20 to Jan 26Jan 20 to Jan 26Jan 20 to Jan 26Jan 20 to Jan 26Jan 20 to Jan 26 2020Jan 20 to Jan 26Jan 20 to Jan 26
Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2 2020Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2
Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9 2020Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9
Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16 2020Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16
Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23 2020Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23
Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1 2020Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1
Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8 2020Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8
Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15 2020Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15
Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22 2020Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22
Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29 2020Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29
Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5 2020Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5
Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12 2020Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12
Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19 2020Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19
Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26 2020Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26
Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3 2020Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3
May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10 2020May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10
May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17 2020May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17
May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24 2020May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24
May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31 2020May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31
Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7 2020Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7
Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14 2020Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14
Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21 2020Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21
Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28 2020Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28
Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5 2020Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5
Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12 2020Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12
Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19 2020Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19
Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26 2020Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26
Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2 2020Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2
Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9 2020Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9
Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16621Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16
Aug 17 to Aug 23Aug 17 to Aug 23Aug 17 to Aug 23Aug 17 to Aug 23Aug 17 to Aug 23730Aug 17 to Aug 23Aug 17 to Aug 23
Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30875Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30
Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 61048Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6
Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 131525Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13
Sep 14 to Sep 20Sep 14 to Sep 20Sep 14 to Sep 20Sep 14 to Sep 20Sep 14 to Sep 202578Sep 14 to Sep 20Sep 14 to Sep 20
Sep 21 to Sep 27Sep 21 to Sep 27Sep 21 to Sep 27Sep 21 to Sep 27Sep 21 to Sep 273295Sep 21 to Sep 27Sep 21 to Sep 27
Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 44264Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4
Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 115267Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11
Oct 12 to Oct 18Oct 12 to Oct 18Oct 12 to Oct 18Oct 12 to Oct 18Oct 12 to Oct 185303Oct 12 to Oct 18Oct 12 to Oct 18
Oct 19 to Oct 25Oct 19 to Oct 25Oct 19 to Oct 25Oct 19 to Oct 25Oct 19 to Oct 256140Oct 19 to Oct 25Oct 19 to Oct 25
Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 16616Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1
Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 87842Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8
Nov 9 to Nov 15Nov 9 to Nov 15Nov 9 to Nov 15Nov 9 to Nov 15Nov 9 to Nov 1510389Nov 9 to Nov 15Nov 9 to Nov 15
Nov 16 to Nov 22Nov 16 to Nov 22Nov 16 to Nov 22Nov 16 to Nov 22Nov 16 to Nov 229948Nov 16 to Nov 22Nov 16 to Nov 22
Nov 23 to Nov 29Nov 23 to Nov 29Nov 23 to Nov 29Nov 23 to Nov 29Nov 23 to Nov 2911387Nov 23 to Nov 29Nov 23 to Nov 29
Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 612739Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6
Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 1313381Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13
Dec 14 to Dec 202021Dec 14 to Dec 202021Dec 14 to Dec 202021Dec 14 to Dec 20Dec 14 to Dec 2015991Dec 14 to Dec 20Dec 14 to Dec 202021
Dec 21 to Dec 27Dec 21 to Dec 27Dec 21 to Dec 27Dec 21 to Dec 27Dec 21 to Dec 2715405Dec 21 to Dec 27Dec 21 to Dec 27
Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 320931Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3
Diagnostic Imaging (MRI/CT)
Surgery
ALC (Acute)
ER
ER (Projected from triage volumes in eCTAS)
Confirmed COVID Volumes
Occupancy Rate
Directive #2
LTC Action Plan
Surgical Restart
Resume LTC (re)admissions
0% Line (No Change vs Prev Yr)
Change vs Previous Year (%)
Confirmed New COVID-19 Cases
[]
LTC Action Plan
Surgical Restart
Resume LTC (re)admissions
-0.0000880308
-0.1221692491
0.0620849934
0.0261792245
5
0.0152336995
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
0.0384968129
-0.0363764045
0.0466887417
0.0265999964
0
0.0152395869
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
0
0.0399133021
-0.0135299592
0.0170527671
0.0275968125
0
0.0102416784
0
0.0640449176
0.0011534025
0.0256827048
0.0332342585
3
0.0065939004
0
0.0582986038
-0.0108201688
-0.0029277814
0.084345616
1
-0.0028701069
0
0.0332631676
-0.0110701107
-0.0003247808
-0.0245105898
0
-0.0044082828
0
0.0636679029
-0.0152184941
0.0147444299
-0.0188740851
0
0.0041660109
0
0.0213790794
0.0129775178
0.0061171925
-0.0325907735
1
-0.008952977
0
0.0247637139
-0.0311066514
0.0311567783
-0.0324517707
15
-0.0187515369
0
0.0208748415
-0.0065009287
0.0232480903
-0.0322449862
18
-0.0214104481
0
0.0082184882
0.5745681044
0.0255462185
-0.0999477443
178
-0.027795744
0
-0.3452600351
-0.8004894199
-0.0489021956
-0.3547771745
501
-0.1814507463
0
-0.5498114145
-0.8800249083
-0.1576454668
-0.4716898227
1464
-0.2765854952
0
-0.5738730286
-0.9100921394
-0.2743210725
-0.5403616769
2944
-0.3378155664
0
-0.6303250237
-0.9258128638
-0.2989072964
-0.5345216252
3347
-0.3537089514
0
-0.5337917025
-0.9040999472
-0.2735949099
-0.516133548
4316
-0.3237492199
0
-0.4979394938
-0.8859811511
-0.2103092784
-0.4668352444
3423
-0.284940705
0
-0.4828593908
-0.8876771274
-0.1648783977
-0.4000141862
2880
-0.2431386995
0
-0.443872715
-0.87894888
-0.0894511761
-0.3866210937
2304
-0.2263015393
0
-0.4039044861
-0.8632253471
-0.0403669725
-0.3580772634
2354
-0.2046089995
0
-0.3658574541
-0.8352262484
-0.0470588235
-0.3229489842
2543
-0.1899646452
0
-0.3145009853
-0.8155304675
0.0227839089
-0.2605928554
2680
-0.1671921907
0
-0.2539292503
-0.755856785
0.0339528234
-0.2463615671
2105
-0.1633354215
0
-0.2206660297
-0.657606644
0.0653641208
-0.2403706847
1403
-0.1613512094
0
-0.1906741702
-0.5668079411
0.044086774
-0.2248520205
1263
-0.1512644326
0
-0.1580055687
-0.4942422135
0.0708437166
-0.1747745459
1283
-0.1186039644
0
-0.1535814495
-0.3271719039
0.0020311442
-0.183545573
971
-0.1044178827
0
-0.1153981059
-0.3200723327
-0.0065404475
-0.1520079028
888
-0.0924416822
0
-0.1024806454
-0.264801399
-0.0667344173
-0.1377785515
939
-0.0892919922
0
-0.0904997434
-0.180731619
-0.0704507513
-0.1319997921
998
-0.0836367986
0
-0.0876929925
0.0873457537
-0.0683673469
-0.1225328029
736
-0.0763991981
0
-0.0781146564
0.1391154329
-0.0566037736
-0.1435891305
630
-0.0775105304
0
-0.0570513416
-0.1407490507
-0.0561612157
-0.1080003854
-0.0836407497
0
-0.0447443015
-0.1146231625
-0.0979631426
-0.1109362846
-0.0782262327
0
-0.0321361059
-0.0899024519
-0.0605960265
-0.1068343973
-0.0714854004
0
0.0794303218
-0.0224100275
-0.0645056726
-0.1070725603
-0.0949540627
0
-0.1679415073
-0.316398243
-0.0773694391
-0.1489569752
-0.0978427179
0
-0.0353896905
-0.1112416477
-0.0779510022
-0.1680084421
-0.0914051034
0
-0.0299185073
-0.0771528867
-0.0474976092
-0.1288936445
-0.0869541757
0
-0.036253709
-0.0809677894
-0.0359089452
-0.1391990068
-0.0720413455
0
-0.0437635781
-0.0824440871
0.0067159167
-0.1942503842
-0.0799246227
0
-0.0554218089
-0.0416981132
-0.0327225131
-0.2023368708
-0.0836379114
0
-0.0549477539
-0.0552914503
-0.036227154
-0.2213908958
-0.0900860941
0
-0.0599229244
-0.0566078974
-0.0281782438
-0.2376701871
-0.0890748496
0
-0.0394501565
-0.0562091503
-0.0368525896
-0.1828221306
-0.0891257596
0
-0.0059062122
-0.0774867346
-0.0526655897
-0.1528281449
-0.0858191432
0
-0.0397862101
-0.0716838037
-0.0521403283
-0.2471073042
-0.1114002498
0
-0.0254167684
-0.0738138356
-0.0391318645
-0.2386821177
-0.2386821177
-0.1060205927
0
0.0107051483
-0.0909284952
-0.0664919751
-0.2401275475
-0.1066883055
0
0.0003104488
-0.0748613678
-0.070679743
-0.254765228
-0.1118919356
0
-0.0012861011
-0.1046954771
-0.0786056049
-0.2966778749
-0.1120135804
0
0.1391760356
3.1646017699
-0.1163333333
-0.3737307923
-0.1308952108
0
-0.419532809
-0.2393075356
-0.1025320413
-0.3304371213
-0.1530582321
0
Title Page
COVID Weekly Trends Report
Prepared by Access to Care Program
Data as of:Sunday, January 03, 2021
Legal Disclaimer
This data has been prepared to support COVID-19 pandemic planning and should be disseminated only to those individuals who require it. Please do not use this information, either alone or with other information to identify an individual. This includes attempting to decrypt information that is encrypted, attempting to identify an individual based on encrypted information and attempting to identify an individual based on prior knowledge
Overall
Select Province, Region, LHIN or COVID Zone
Overall View
Volume as a % of 2019 Levels
For the most recent week:Current Week (Dec 28 to Jan 3)4 Week Aggregate (Dec 7 to Jan 3)
●Surgery volumes were 23.9% below 2019 levels (same week previous year)Surgery76.1%101.1%
●Diagnositc Imaging (MRI/CT) volumes were 42.0% below 2019 levelsDI58.0%92.9%
●ALC Acute open case volumes were 10.3% below 2019 levelsALC89.7%90.8%
●ER volumes (projected from eCTAS triage volumes) were 33.0% below 2019 levelsER67.0%68.4%
●Occupancy rates (Acute) were 15.3 percentage points below 2019 levels, with a daily average of 3,572 available beds
Notes:
*Please note for the week of December 21 to 27 surgical volumes decreased compared to the previous week due to holidays.
However, surgical activity did not ramp down as significantly as last year; therefore the 2020 vs 2019 % change may appear unusually high.
●COVID zone colour is as of January 03
●Figures for the most current week are likely to change as a result of lags in entering completed cases
●Regional covid case counts may be under-reported due to insufficient information (approx. 1.6% of provincial totals). Case counts for most recent days (~7 days) are
subject to undercounting due to reporting lag. Unless otherwise noted information is based on the reported data in iPHIS.
●For more details please visit the LOB-specific executive report
Data Source: eCTAS, NACRS, WTIS, iPHIS and Daily Bed Census Summary (queried from MOH SAS VA)
&L&G
Overall
Dec 30 to Jan 52020Dec 30 to Jan 52020Dec 30 to Jan 52020Dec 30 to Jan 5Dec 30 to Jan 5Dec 30 to Jan 5 2020Dec 30 to Jan 512162224Dec 30 to Jan 52020
Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12 2020Jan 6 to Jan 1212162224Jan 6 to Jan 12
Jan 13 to Jan 19Jan 13 to Jan 19Jan 13 to Jan 19Jan 13 to Jan 19Jan 13 to Jan 19Jan 13 to Jan 19 2020Jan 13 to Jan 19Jan 13 to Jan 19
Jan 20 to Jan 26Jan 20 to Jan 26Jan 20 to Jan 26Jan 20 to Jan 26Jan 20 to Jan 26Jan 20 to Jan 26 2020Jan 20 to Jan 26Jan 20 to Jan 26
Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2 2020Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2
Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9 2020Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9
Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16 2020Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16
Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23 2020Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23
Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1 2020Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1
Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8 2020Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8
Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15 2020Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15
Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22 2020Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22
Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29 2020Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29
Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5 2020Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5
Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12 2020Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12
Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19 2020Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19
Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26 2020Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26
Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3 2020Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3
May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10 2020May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10
May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17 2020May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17
May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24 2020May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24
May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31 2020May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31
Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7 2020Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7
Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14 2020Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14
Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21 2020Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21
Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28 2020Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28
Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5 2020Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5
Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12 2020Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12
Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19 2020Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19
Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26 2020Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26
Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2 2020Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2
Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9 2020Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9
Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16621Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16
Aug 17 to Aug 23Aug 17 to Aug 23Aug 17 to Aug 23Aug 17 to Aug 23Aug 17 to Aug 23730Aug 17 to Aug 23Aug 17 to Aug 23
Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30875Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30
Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 61048Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6
Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 131525Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13
Sep 14 to Sep 20Sep 14 to Sep 20Sep 14 to Sep 20Sep 14 to Sep 20Sep 14 to Sep 202578Sep 14 to Sep 20Sep 14 to Sep 20
Sep 21 to Sep 27Sep 21 to Sep 27Sep 21 to Sep 27Sep 21 to Sep 27Sep 21 to Sep 273295Sep 21 to Sep 27Sep 21 to Sep 27
Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 44264Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4
Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 115267Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11
Oct 12 to Oct 18Oct 12 to Oct 18Oct 12 to Oct 18Oct 12 to Oct 18Oct 12 to Oct 185303Oct 12 to Oct 18Oct 12 to Oct 18
Oct 19 to Oct 25Oct 19 to Oct 25Oct 19 to Oct 25Oct 19 to Oct 25Oct 19 to Oct 256140Oct 19 to Oct 25Oct 19 to Oct 25
Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 16616Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1
Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 87842Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8
Nov 9 to Nov 15Nov 9 to Nov 15Nov 9 to Nov 15Nov 9 to Nov 15Nov 9 to Nov 1510389Nov 9 to Nov 15Nov 9 to Nov 15
Nov 16 to Nov 22Nov 16 to Nov 22Nov 16 to Nov 22Nov 16 to Nov 22Nov 16 to Nov 229948Nov 16 to Nov 22Nov 16 to Nov 22
Nov 23 to Nov 29Nov 23 to Nov 29Nov 23 to Nov 29Nov 23 to Nov 29Nov 23 to Nov 2911387Nov 23 to Nov 29Nov 23 to Nov 29
Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 612739Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6
Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 1313381Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13
Dec 14 to Dec 202021Dec 14 to Dec 202021Dec 14 to Dec 202021Dec 14 to Dec 20Dec 14 to Dec 2015991Dec 14 to Dec 20Dec 14 to Dec 202021
Dec 21 to Dec 27Dec 21 to Dec 27Dec 21 to Dec 27Dec 21 to Dec 27Dec 21 to Dec 2715405Dec 21 to Dec 27Dec 21 to Dec 27
Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 320931Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3
Diagnostic Imaging (MRI/CT)
Surgery
ALC (Acute)
ER
ER (Projected from triage volumes in eCTAS)
Confirmed COVID Volumes
Occupancy Rate
Directive #2
LTC Action Plan
Surgical Restart
Resume LTC (re)admissions
0% Line (No Change vs Prev Yr)
Change vs Previous Year (%)
Confirmed COVID-19 Volumes
[]
LTC Action Plan
Surgical Restart
Resume LTC (re)admissions
-0.0000880308
-0.1221692491
0.0620849934
0.0261792245
5
0.0152336995
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
0.0384968129
-0.0363764045
0.0466887417
0.0265999964
0
0.0152395869
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
0
0.0399133021
-0.0135299592
0.0170527671
0.0275968125
0
0.0102416784
0
0.0640449176
0.0011534025
0.0256827048
0.0332342585
3
0.0065939004
0
0.0582986038
-0.0108201688
-0.0029277814
0.084345616
1
-0.0028701069
0
0.0332631676
-0.0110701107
-0.0003247808
-0.0245105898
0
-0.0044082828
0
0.0636679029
-0.0152184941
0.0147444299
-0.0188740851
0
0.0041660109
0
0.0213790794
0.0129775178
0.0061171925
-0.0325907735
1
-0.008952977
0
0.0247637139
-0.0311066514
0.0311567783
-0.0324517707
15
-0.0187515369
0
0.0208748415
-0.0065009287
0.0232480903
-0.0322449862
18
-0.0214104481
0
0.0082184882
0.5745681044
0.0255462185
-0.0999477443
178
-0.027795744
0
-0.3452600351
-0.8004894199
-0.0489021956
-0.3547771745
501
-0.1814507463
0
-0.5498114145
-0.8800249083
-0.1576454668
-0.4716898227
1464
-0.2765854952
0
-0.5738730286
-0.9100921394
-0.2743210725
-0.5403616769
2944
-0.3378155664
0
-0.6303250237
-0.9258128638
-0.2989072964
-0.5345216252
3347
-0.3537089514
0
-0.5337917025
-0.9040999472
-0.2735949099
-0.516133548
4316
-0.3237492199
0
-0.4979394938
-0.8859811511
-0.2103092784
-0.4668352444
3423
-0.284940705
0
-0.4828593908
-0.8876771274
-0.1648783977
-0.4000141862
2880
-0.2431386995
0
-0.443872715
-0.87894888
-0.0894511761
-0.3866210937
2304
-0.2263015393
0
-0.4039044861
-0.8632253471
-0.0403669725
-0.3580772634
2354
-0.2046089995
0
-0.3658574541
-0.8352262484
-0.0470588235
-0.3229489842
2543
-0.1899646452
0
-0.3145009853
-0.8155304675
0.0227839089
-0.2605928554
2680
-0.1671921907
0
-0.2539292503
-0.755856785
0.0339528234
-0.2463615671
2105
-0.1633354215
0
-0.2206660297
-0.657606644
0.0653641208
-0.2403706847
1403
-0.1613512094
0
-0.1906741702
-0.5668079411
0.044086774
-0.2248520205
1263
-0.1512644326
0
-0.1580055687
-0.4942422135
0.0708437166
-0.1747745459
1283
-0.1186039644
0
-0.1535814495
-0.3271719039
0.0020311442
-0.183545573
971
-0.1044178827
0
-0.1153981059
-0.3200723327
-0.0065404475
-0.1520079028
888
-0.0924416822
0
-0.1024806454
-0.264801399
-0.0667344173
-0.1377785515
939
-0.0892919922
0
-0.0904997434
-0.180731619
-0.0704507513
-0.1319997921
998
-0.0836367986
0
-0.0876929925
0.0873457537
-0.0683673469
-0.1225328029
736
-0.0763991981
0
-0.0781146564
0.1391154329
-0.0566037736
-0.1435891305
630
-0.0775105304
0
-0.0570513416
-0.1407490507
-0.0561612157
-0.1080003854
-0.0836407497
0
-0.0447443015
-0.1146231625
-0.0979631426
-0.1109362846
-0.0782262327
0
-0.0321361059
-0.0899024519
-0.0605960265
-0.1068343973
-0.0714854004
0
0.0794303218
-0.0224100275
-0.0645056726
-0.1070725603
-0.0949540627
0
-0.1679415073
-0.316398243
-0.0773694391
-0.1489569752
-0.0978427179
0
-0.0353896905
-0.1112416477
-0.0779510022
-0.1680084421
-0.0914051034
0
-0.0299185073
-0.0771528867
-0.0474976092
-0.1288936445
-0.0869541757
0
-0.036253709
-0.0809677894
-0.0359089452
-0.1391990068
-0.0720413455
0
-0.0437635781
-0.0824440871
0.0067159167
-0.1942503842
-0.0799246227
0
-0.0554218089
-0.0416981132
-0.0327225131
-0.2023368708
-0.0836379114
0
-0.0549477539
-0.0552914503
-0.036227154
-0.2213908958
-0.0900860941
0
-0.0599229244
-0.0566078974
-0.0281782438
-0.2376701871
-0.0890748496
0
-0.0394501565
-0.0562091503
-0.0368525896
-0.1828221306
-0.0891257596
0
-0.0059062122
-0.0774867346
-0.0526655897
-0.1528281449
-0.0858191432
0
-0.0397862101
-0.0716838037
-0.0521403283
-0.2471073042
-0.1114002498
0
-0.0254167684
-0.0738138356
-0.0391318645
-0.2386821177
-0.2386821177
-0.1060205927
0
0.0107051483
-0.0909284952
-0.0664919751
-0.2401275475
-0.1066883055
0
0.0003104488
-0.0748613678
-0.070679743
-0.254765228
-0.1118919356
0
-0.0012861011
-0.1046954771
-0.0786056049
-0.2966778749
-0.1120135804
0
0.1391760356
3.1646017699
-0.1163333333
-0.3737307923
-0.1308952108
0
-0.419532809
-0.2393075356
-0.1025320413
-0.3304371213
-0.1530582321
0
Alternate Overall
Surgery and DI data in most recent week likely to change due to reporting lag
* Volume change >150%Please see notes below for more details
Alternate Overall
Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Dec 30 to Jan 5 20208121820Jan 27 to Feb 2
Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Jan 6 to Jan 12 20208121820Feb 3 to Feb 9
Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16Jan 13 to Jan 19 2020Feb 10 to Feb 16
Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23Jan 20 to Jan 26 2020Feb 17 to Feb 23
Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Jan 27 to Feb 2 2020Feb 24 to Mar 1
Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Feb 3 to Feb 9 2020Mar 2 to Mar 8
Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15Feb 10 to Feb 16 2020Mar 9 to Mar 15
Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22Feb 17 to Feb 23 2020Mar 16 to Mar 22
Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29Feb 24 to Mar 1 2020Mar 23 to Mar 29
Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 2 to Mar 8 2020Mar 30 to Apr 5
Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Mar 9 to Mar 15 2020Apr 6 to Apr 12
Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19Mar 16 to Mar 22 2020Apr 13 to Apr 19
Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26Mar 23 to Mar 29 2020Apr 20 to Apr 26
Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Mar 30 to Apr 5 2020Apr 27 to May 3
May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10Apr 6 to Apr 12 2020May 4 to May 10
May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17Apr 13 to Apr 19 2020May 11 to May 17
May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24Apr 20 to Apr 26 2020May 18 to May 24
May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31Apr 27 to May 3 2020May 25 to May 31
Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7May 4 to May 10 2020Jun 1 to Jun 7
Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14May 11 to May 17 2020Jun 8 to Jun 14
Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21May 18 to May 24 2020Jun 15 to Jun 21
Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28May 25 to May 31 2020Jun 22 to Jun 28
Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 1 to Jun 7 2020Jun 29 to Jul 5
Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jun 8 to Jun 14 2020Jul 6 to Jul 12
Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19Jun 15 to Jun 21 2020Jul 13 to Jul 19
Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26Jun 22 to Jun 28 2020Jul 20 to Jul 26
Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jun 29 to Jul 5 2020Jul 27 to Aug 2
Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Jul 6 to Jul 12 2020Aug 3 to Aug 9
Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16Jul 13 to Jul 19 2020Aug 10 to Aug 16
Aug 17 to Aug 23Aug 17 to Aug 23Aug 17 to Aug 23Aug 17 to Aug 23Jul 20 to Jul 26 2020Aug 17 to Aug 23
Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30Jul 27 to Aug 2 2020Aug 24 to Aug 30
Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 3 to Aug 9 2020Aug 31 to Sep 6
Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 131525Sep 7 to Sep 13
Sep 14 to Sep 20Sep 14 to Sep 20Sep 14 to Sep 20Sep 14 to Sep 202578Sep 14 to Sep 20
Sep 21 to Sep 27Sep 21 to Sep 27Sep 21 to Sep 27Sep 21 to Sep 273295Sep 21 to Sep 27
Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 44264Sep 28 to Oct 4
Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 115267Oct 5 to Oct 11
Oct 12 to Oct 18Oct 12 to Oct 18Oct 12 to Oct 18Oct 12 to Oct 185303Oct 12 to Oct 18
Oct 19 to Oct 25Oct 19 to Oct 25Oct 19 to Oct 25Oct 19 to Oct 256140Oct 19 to Oct 25
Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 16616Oct 26 to Nov 1
Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 87842Nov 2 to Nov 8
Nov 9 to Nov 15Nov 9 to Nov 15Nov 9 to Nov 15Nov 9 to Nov 1510389Nov 9 to Nov 15
Nov 16 to Nov 22Nov 16 to Nov 22Nov 16 to Nov 22Nov 16 to Nov 229948Nov 16 to Nov 22
Nov 23 to Nov 29Nov 23 to Nov 29Nov 23 to Nov 29Nov 23 to Nov 2911387Nov 23 to Nov 29
Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 612739Nov 30 to Dec 6
Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 1313381Dec 7 to Dec 13
Dec 14 to Dec 20Dec 14 to Dec 20Dec 14 to Dec 20Dec 14 to Dec 2015991Dec 14 to Dec 20
Dec 21 to Dec 27Dec 21 to Dec 27Dec 21 to Dec 27Dec 21 to Dec 2715405Dec 21 to Dec 27
Diagnostic Imaging (MRI/CT)
Surgery
ER
ER (Projected from triage volumes in eCTAS)
Confirmed COVID Volumes
Directive #2
LTC Action Plan
Surgical Restart
Resume LTC (re)admissions
0% Line (No Change vs Prev Yr)
2020 vs 2019 (%)
COVID Volumes
Weekly Volume Comparison - % Change 2020 vs 2019
[]
LTC Action Plan
Surgical Restart
Resume LTC (re)admissions
0.0582986038
-0.0108201688
0.084345616
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
0.0332631676
-0.0110701107
-0.0245105898
0
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
0
0.0636679029
-0.0152184941
-0.0188740851
0
0
0.0213790794
0.0129775178
-0.0325907735
1
0
0.0247637139
-0.0311066514
-0.0324517707
15
0
0.0208748415
-0.0065009287
-0.0322449862
18
0
0.0082184882
0.5745681044
-0.0999477443
178
0
-0.3452600351
-0.8004894199
-0.3547771745
501
0
-0.5498114145
-0.8800249083
-0.4716898227
1464
0
-0.5738730286
-0.9100921394
-0.5403616769
2944
0
-0.6303250237
-0.9258128638
-0.5345216252
3347
0
-0.5337917025
-0.9040999472
-0.516133548
4316
0
-0.4979394938
-0.8859811511
-0.4668352444
3423
0
-0.4828593908
-0.8876771274
-0.4000141862
2880
0
-0.443872715
-0.87894888
-0.3866210937
2304
0
-0.4039044861
-0.8632253471
-0.3580772634
2354
0
-0.3658574541
-0.8352262484
-0.3229489842
2543
0
-0.3145009853
-0.8155304675
-0.2605928554
2680
0
-0.2539292503
-0.755856785
-0.2463615671
2105
0
-0.2206660297
-0.657606644
-0.2403706847
1403
0
-0.1906741702
-0.5668079411
-0.2248520205
1263
0
-0.1580055687
-0.4942422135
-0.1747745459
1283
0
-0.1535814495
-0.3271719039
-0.183545573
971
0
-0.1153981059
-0.3200723327
-0.1520079028
888
0
-0.1024806454
-0.264801399
-0.1377785515
939
0
-0.0904997434
-0.180731619
-0.1319997921
998
0
-0.0876929925
0.0873457537
-0.1225328029
736
0
-0.0781146564
0.1391154329
-0.1435891305
630
0
-0.0570513416
-0.1407490507
-0.1080003854
621
0
-0.0447443015
-0.1146231625
-0.1109362846
730
0
-0.0321361059
-0.0899024519
-0.1068343973
875
0
0.0794303218
-0.0224100275
-0.1070725603
1048
0
-0.1679415073
-0.316398243
-0.1489569752
0
-0.0353896905
-0.1112416477
-0.1680084421
0
-0.0299185073
-0.0771528867
-0.1288936445
0
-0.036253709
-0.0809677894
0
-0.0437635781
-0.0824440871
0
-0.0554218089
-0.0416981132
0
-0.0549477539
-0.0552914503
0
-0.0599229244
-0.0566078974
0
-0.0394501565
-0.0562091503
0
-0.0059062122
-0.0774867346
0
-0.0397862101
-0.0716838037
0
-0.0254167684
-0.0738138356
-0.2386821177
0
0.0107051483
-0.0909284952
-0.2401275475
0
0.0003104488
-0.0748613678
-0.254765228
0
-0.0012861011
-0.1046954771
-0.2966778749
0
0.1391760356
3.1646017699
-0.3737307923
0
Surgery
Select Province, Region, LHIN or COVID Zone
Surgery
Select Surgical Specialty
1170190170190
2166168166168
3169173169173
4164163164163
5156168156168
6162165162165
7162163162163
8156162156162
9161165161165
10153160153160
11162164162164
12157128157128
131615816158
141555315553
151614816148
161565215652
171706817068
181667316673
191608416084
201709717097
21164105164105
22165125165125
23169149169149
24156188156188
25162197162197
26157209157209
27163214163214
28162227162227
29154237154237
30148239148239
31161246161246
32160261160261
33167260167260
34165261165261
35166265166265
36174270174270
37170268170268
38171275171275
39175279175279
40174288174288
41172271172271
42176276176276
43177281177281
Data Source: Wait Time Information System cut as of January 444171290171290
Notes:45171281171281
●Surgery volumes were 23.9% below 2019 levels (same week previous year)46177290177290
●Overall surgical volume trends may not reflect variations in subgroups (e.g. oncology volumes did not decrease to the same extent as non-oncology volumes)47172285172285
●Figures for the most current week are likely to change as a result of lags in entering completed cases48174290174290
●Gaps in wait times indicate suppression due to low or no volumes49167273167273
●Click here for 4 week regional comparison50169274169274
●COVID zone colour is as of January 0351164278164278
52161280161280
*Please note for the week of Dec 21 to 27th surgical volumes decreased compared to the previous week due to holidays.53190228190228
However, surgical activity did not ramp down as significantly as last year; therefore the 2020 vs 2019 % change may appear unusually high.541680168
551730173
Surgical case volumes by surgical specialty for 5 Ontario Health Regions and Province561630163
December 7 to January 3, FY2020 case volumes as a proportion of FY2019 case volumes during same period571680168
581650165
591630163
601620162
611650165
621600160
631640164
641280128
6558058
6653053
6748048
6852052
6968068
7073073
7184084
7297097
731050105
741250125
751490149
761880188
771970197
782090209
* Angiography and Cardiac surgery volumes are for the previous rolling 4-week period (November 30 to December 27) due to reporting lag
Back to TopData Source: Wait Time Information System cut as of January 4, Angiography and Cardiac data from MOH SAS VA Surgical Dashboard
2019 comparison period: December 9 to January 5
All other surgeries percent change:100.5%
Surgery
Dec 30 to Jan 52020Dec 30 to Jan 52020Dec 30 to Jan 5Dec 30 to Jan 512162224
Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 12Jan 6 to Jan 1212162224
Jan 13 to Jan 19Jan 13 to Jan 19Jan 13 to Jan 19Jan 13 to Jan 19
Jan 20 to Jan 26Jan 20 to Jan 26Jan 20 to Jan 26Jan 20 to Jan 26
Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2Jan 27 to Feb 2
Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9Feb 3 to Feb 9
Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16Feb 10 to Feb 16
Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23Feb 17 to Feb 23
Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1Feb 24 to Mar 1
Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8Mar 2 to Mar 8
Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15Mar 9 to Mar 15
Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22Mar 16 to Mar 22
Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29Mar 23 to Mar 29
Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5Mar 30 to Apr 5
Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12Apr 6 to Apr 12
Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19Apr 13 to Apr 19
Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26Apr 20 to Apr 26
Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3Apr 27 to May 3
May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10May 4 to May 10
May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17May 11 to May 17
May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24May 18 to May 24
May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31May 25 to May 31
Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7Jun 1 to Jun 7
Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14Jun 8 to Jun 14
Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21Jun 15 to Jun 21
Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28Jun 22 to Jun 28
Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5Jun 29 to Jul 5
Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12Jul 6 to Jul 12
Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19Jul 13 to Jul 19
Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26Jul 20 to Jul 26
Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2Jul 27 to Aug 2
Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9Aug 3 to Aug 9
Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16Aug 10 to Aug 16
Aug 17 to Aug 23Aug 17 to Aug 23Aug 17 to Aug 23Aug 17 to Aug 23
Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30Aug 24 to Aug 30
Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6Aug 31 to Sep 6
Sep 7 to Sep 13Sep 7 to Sep 13
Sep 14 to Sep 20Sep 14 to Sep 20
Sep 21 to Sep 27Sep 21 to Sep 27
Sep 28 to Oct 4Sep 28 to Oct 4
Oct 5 to Oct 11Oct 5 to Oct 11
Oct 12 to Oct 18Oct 12 to Oct 18
Oct 19 to Oct 25Oct 19 to Oct 25
Oct 26 to Nov 1Oct 26 to Nov 1
Nov 2 to Nov 8Nov 2 to Nov 8
Nov 9 to Nov 15Nov 9 to Nov 15
Nov 16 to Nov 22Nov 16 to Nov 22
Nov 23 to Nov 29Nov 23 to Nov 29
Nov 30 to Dec 6Nov 30 to Dec 6
Dec 7 to Dec 13Dec 7 to Dec 13
Dec 14 to Dec 202021Dec 14 to Dec 202021
Dec 21 to Dec 27Dec 21 to Dec 27
Dec 28 to Jan 3Dec 28 to Jan 3
Prev Yr Volumes
2020/21 Volumes
Prev Yr Surgery Wait Time (Overall)
2020/21 Surgery Wait Time (Overall)
Directive #2
LTC Action Plan
Surgical Restart
Resume LTC (re)admissions
Volumes
90th Percentile Wait Time - Wait 2 (days)
Weekly Volume and Wait Time Comparison - 2020/21 vs Previous Year (Surgery)
Directive #2
LTC Action Plan
Surgical Restart
Resume LTC (re)admissions
3356
2946
0
0
0
0
14240
13722
15900
15900
15900
15900
13969
13780
13872
13888
13863
13713
13821
13668
13799
13589
10942
11084
13952
13518
13998
13907
8509
13398
13894
2772
14453
1734
13892
1249
14086
1045
11366
1090
11884
1355
13479
1514
13928
1686
14045
1921
11094
1828
13818
2549
13574
3314
13245
4535
13449
5826
12939
6544
8656
5824
12166
8272
12009
8829
11044
9048
8266
8988
6376
7263
11588
9957
11769
10420
11379
10356
10531
10295
13660
9338
13619
12104
13389
12356
13598
12497
13682
12554
10600
10158
13673
12917
13726
12949
13770
12996
11873
10953
13713
12730
13805
12786
14055
12777
14066
13013
13907
12451
1130
4706
2946
2241
Sx Regional
Angiography (incl. SS PCI)*Angiography (incl. SS PCI)*Angiography (incl. SS PCI)*Angiography (incl. SS PCI)*Angiography (incl. SS PCI)*Angiography (incl. SS PCI)*Angiography (incl. SS PCI)*
Cancer SurgeryCancer SurgeryCancer SurgeryCancer SurgeryCancer SurgeryCancer SurgeryCancer Surgery
Cardiac Surgery*Cardiac Surgery*Cardiac Surgery*Cardiac Surgery*Cardiac Surgery*Cardiac Surgery*Cardiac Surgery*
General SurgeryGeneral SurgeryGeneral SurgeryGeneral SurgeryGeneral SurgeryGeneral SurgeryGeneral Surgery
GynecologicGynecologicGynecologicGynecologicGynecologicGynecologicGynecologic
NeurosurgeryNeurosurgeryNeurosurgeryNeurosurgeryNeurosurgeryNeurosurgeryNeurosurgery
OMF Surgery/DentistryOMF Surgery/DentistryOMF Surgery/DentistryOMF Surgery/DentistryOMF Surgery/DentistryOMF Surgery/DentistryOMF Surgery/Dentistry
OphthalmicOphthalmicOphthalmicOphthalmicOphthalmicOphthalmicOphthalmic
OrthopaedicOrthopaedicOrthopaedicOrthopaedicOrthopaedicOrthopaedicOrthopaedic
OtalaryngicOtalaryngicOtalaryngicOtalaryngicOtalaryngicOtalaryngicOtalaryngic
PediatricPediatricPediatricPediatricPediatricPediatricPediatric
Plastic / ReconstructivePlastic / ReconstructivePlastic / ReconstructivePlastic / ReconstructivePlastic / ReconstructivePlastic / ReconstructivePlastic / Reconstructive
ThoracicThoracicThoracicThoracicThoracicThoracicThoracic
UrologicUrologicUrologicUrologicUrologicUrologicUrologic
VascularVascularVascularVascularVascularVascularVascular
West
Central
Toronto
East
North
Province
Line
0.8885672938
0.6605284227
0.7793017456
0.8854166667
1.0733752621
0.8306484092
1
0.9875311721
1.1428571429
0.92
0.9276923077
1.1812080537
1
1
0.7272727273
0.8097826087
1.0182648402
0.9612903226
1.2121212121
0.8787528868
1
0.9899856938
0.9193697868
0.7035830619
1.0702970297
0.9931740614
0.9699045755
1
0.899408284
0.8181818182
0.909375
0.9795597484
0.9222222222
0.8978553253
1
0.5915492958
1.0196078431
1
0.8548387097
1.5
0.8737373737
1
0.8571428571
0.7532467532
0.5
0.7727272727
1
0.8014527845
1
1.2839264763
1.327027027
0.9610182975
1.3067788224
1.3715277778
1.2483230304
1
0.9859375
0.9964714185
0.9415041783
1.1677953348
1.2805555556
1.0435236769
1
0.8134715026
0.9544235925
0.7448979592
1.024137931
0.9545454545
0.8970251716
1
0.7552356021
0.6341853035
0.9580712788
0.7954173486
0.581920904
0.7608286252
1
0.7508896797
0.8638888889
0.7452830189
0.8409785933
0.649122807
0.7952086553
1
0.5806451613
0.3333333333
0.2105263158
0.44
3
0.5384615385
1
0.9272030651
0.8524590164
0.7823834197
1.1125703565
0.9802631579
0.9395368782
1
1.152173913
0.8214285714
0.7192982456
1.0247933884
0.976744186
0.9720767888
1
DI
20192020
Start Week50102COVID!C:C,COVID!D:D,">="&$AK24,COVID!D:D,"
-
Daily mortality is increasing under current restrictions, doubling from 50 to 100 deaths per day between now and end of February
20Forecasting: McMasterU. Data (Observed Deaths): CCM+
Assumption: continue current restrictions.
-
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2-1-20 3-1-20 4-1-20 5-1-20 6-1-20 7-1-20 8-1-20 9-1-20 10-1-20 11-1-20 12-1-20 1-1-21
Daily New Cases per 1 Million People (7-Day Average)
France Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Ontario
The Novel SARS-CoV-2 variant: B.1.1.7 appears to be much more easily transmitted
• Novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, B.1.1.7, emerged in southeast England in November
• Transmissibility: 56% ↑ (95% credible interval 50-74%)
• No increase in disease severity, vaccines likely still effective
21
800 Cases/1M Pop ~ 12,000 cases/Day for ON Population
Sources: https://ourworldindata.org; CCM+Sources: Public Health England Technical Reports; Davies NG et al (LSHTM)
UK
NLD
GERFRAON
https://ourworldindata.org/
-
If the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 spreads in the community, doubling time for cases could drop to 10 days in March
Predictions: QueensU
Assumptions: 1 case infected with B.1.1.7. from the UK entering Ontario mid-Oct, transmissibility of variant 56% ↑ than other circulating variants (based on UK data), continue current restrictions. 22
-
Key components of hard lockdowns in peer jurisdictions
Victoria, Australia
France (Fall) UK* Germany* Netherlands*
Strict stay-at-home order / movement restrictions
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Non-essential retail closed ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Bars, restaurants , gyms etc. closed ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Most workplaces closed ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Schools closed ✓ ✕ ✓ ✓ ✓
Mandatory masking outdoors ✓ ✓ ✕ ✕ ✕
Testing blitz in high risk areas ✓ ✕ ✕ ✕ ✕
Curfew ✓ ✓ ✕ ✓ ✕
Enforcement ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
23✓ = fully imposed, ✓ = partially imposed, ✕ = not imposed, *Currently in lockdown
-
Key Findings
• Growth in cases has accelerated and is over 7% on the worst days.• Almost 40% of long-term care homes have active COVID-19 outbreaks. Since January 1st
198 LTC residents and 2 LTC staff have died of COVID-19. Forecasts suggest more deaths in wave 2 in long-term care than in wave 1.
• COVID-19 ICU occupancy is now over 400 beds. Surgeries are being cancelled and the access to care deficit will continue to increase with real consequences for health.
• Mobility, and contacts between people have not decreased with the current restrictions. Survey data show that the majority of Ontarians are helping limit spread by following them. However, case numbers will not decline until more of the population follows their example.
• A new variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 (B117) could drive much higher case counts, ICU occupancy and mortality if community transmission occurs. The doubling time for cases could drop by more than 2/3. This new variant is now in Ontario.
• Without significant reductions in contacts, the health system will be overwhelmed and mortality will exceed the first wave totals before a vaccine has time to take effect.
24
-
Content provided by Modelling Consensus and Scientific Advisory Table members and secretariatBeate Sander,* Peter Juni, Brian Schwartz,* Kumar Murty,* Upton Allen, Vanessa Allen, Nicholas Bodmer, Isaac Bogoch, Kevin Brown, Sarah Buchan, Yoojin Choi, Troy Day, David Earn, Gerald Evans, David Fisman, Jennifer Gibson, Anna Greenberg, Anne Hayes, Michael Hillmer, Jessica Hopkins, Jeff Kwong, Audrey Laporte, John Lavis, Gerald Lebovic, Brian Lewis, Linda Mah, Kamil Malikov, Antonina Maltsev, Doug Manuel, Allison McGeer, David McKeown, John McLaughlin, Sharmistha Mishra, Justin Morgenstern, Samira Mubareka, Laveena Munshi, Christopher Mushquash, Ayodele Odutayo, Shahla Oskooei, Samir Patel, Bill Praamsma, Justin Presseau, Fahad Razak, Paula Rochon, Laura Rosella, Arjumand Siddiqi, Chris Simpson, Arthur Slutsky, Janet Smylie, Nathan Stall, Ashleigh Tuite, Jennifer Walker, Tania Watts, Ashini Weerasinghe, Scott Weese, Xiaolin Wei, Jianhong Wu, Diana Yan, Emre Yurga
* Chairs of Scientific Advisory or Modelling Consensus Tables
25
Update on COVID-19 ProjectionsKey FindingsSlide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Weekly % positivity by age groupSlide Number 7Projections: second wave cumulative LTC resident COVID-19 deaths >2,600 by Feb 14 in worst case scenarioSlide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Despite some reduced mobility from “Grey Zone” restrictions, there was a pre-holiday spike“Grey Zone” restrictions did not affect the proportion of people working from home; holiday decreases are not likely to persistWith current restrictions, almost 2/3 of the population are acting in a way that will decrease COVID-19 spreadAs happened in other jurisdictions, case growth continues under current levels of restrictionsProjections: COVID-19 ICU occupancy around 500 beds in mid-January, potentially over 1,000 beds in February in more severe, but realistic scenariosSlide Number 17One quarter of hospitals have no ICU beds free, another quarter have only 1 or 2 beds freeSlide Number 19Daily mortality is increasing under current restrictions, doubling from 50 to 100 deaths per day between now and end of FebruaryThe Novel SARS-CoV-2 variant: B.1.1.7 appears to be much more easily transmittedIf the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 spreads in the community, doubling time for cases could drop to 10 days in MarchKey components of hard lockdowns in peer jurisdictionsKey FindingsContent provided by Modelling Consensus and Scientific Advisory Table members and secretariat