U.S. employment situation: September 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
October records another month of
200,000+ job gains
U.S. employment situation: October 2014 November 7, 2014
October 2014 employment summary
• Total non-farm employment increased by 214,000 jobs in October. Revisions in previous months mean that this was the eighth
consecutive month of monthly additions surpassing 200,000 jobs.
- Growth was once again highly diverse and the top three subsectors in terms of additions were responsible for only slightly more
than two-thirds of new jobs.
- On a year-on-year basis, all subsectors except for information posted net gains. This is in line with previous months and the
decline of employment in print and traditional media, which heavily weighs in on the information subsector.
• Unemployment fell by 10 basis points to 5.8 percent due to a combination of persistently low labor force participation (remaining
around 62.8 percent in recent months) and steady employment gains.
- Total unemployment declined to 11.5 percent, a drop of 30 basis points and falling faster than the official unemployment rate.
- Unemployment for college and high-school grads bucked the trend and increased slightly, but are still both below-average.
• Leisure and hospitality as well as education and health continue to lead and surpassed PBS as the largest drivers of growth in
October. Revisions pushed down PBS gains over the past three months, resulting in office-using subsectors accounting for one-sixth
of total non-farm gains.
• Improving economic conditions have led to rising consumer confidence: in October, the Conference Board recorded a recovery high
of 94.5 points, rebounding from a slight dip into the upper 80-point range in September.
• From a geographic perspective, Texas and the Sunbelt are the definite leaders, with markets consistently reporting 3.5 percent or
greater year-on-year employment growth. While most major markets are now in the 2.0+ percent range (with the notable exceptions
of Chicago and Philadelphia), they have yet to keep up with Austin, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Raleigh-Durham and South Florida in
percentage terms, among other high-growth areas.
October saw 214,000 new jobs added nationally, resulting in the
ninth consecutive month of 200,000+ additions 22
0,00
0
121,
000
120,
000
360,
000
226,
000
243,
000
96,0
00
110,
000
88,0
00
106,
000
122,
000
221,
000
183,
000
164,
000 19
6,00
0
360,
000
226,
000
243,
000
96,0
00
110,
000
88,0
00
160,
000
150,
000
161,
000
225,
000
203,
000
214,
000
197,
000
280,
000
141,
000
203,
000
199,
000
201,
000
149,
000
202,
000
164,
000
237,
000 27
4,00
0
84,0
00
144,
000
222,
000
201,
000
304,
000
202,
000
267,
000
243,
000
203,
000
256,
000
214,
000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Oct
-10
Dec
-11
Feb
-11
Apr
-11
Jun-
11
Aug
-11
Oct
-11
Dec
-11
Feb
-12
Apr
-12
Jun-
12
Aug
-12
Oct
-12
Dec
-12
Feb
-13
Apr
-13
Jun-
13
Aug
-13
Oct
-13
Dec
-13
Feb
-14
Apr
-14
Jun-
14
Aug
-14
Oct
-14
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
3
Unemployment nudges down another 10 basis points to 5.8
percent due to sustained growth
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(%)
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
(tho
usan
ds)
Monthly employment change Unemployment rate
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4
Job openings hit a record 4.8 million in October as corporate
confidence continues to rise
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
5
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Job
open
ings
(th
ousa
nds)
-4.0
0.4
1.0
1.0
2.5
3.0
3.0
5.0
8.5
12.0
13.3
14.0
15.0
15.1
27.1
27.2
37.0
41.0
52.0
-40 -20 0 20 40 60
Information
Utilities
Nondurable goods
Mining and logging
Motor vehicles and parts
Other services
Financial activities
Government
Wholesale trade
Construction
Transportation and warehousing
Durable goods
Manufacturing
Temporary help services
Retail trade
Health care and social assistance
Professional and business services
Education and health services
Leisure and hospitality
1-month net change (thousands)
Leisure and hospitality and education and health surpass PBS
for largest contribution in October; only information posts loss
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
6
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health
PBS
All other subsectors
Top three
subsectors
responsible for
60.7 percent of
monthly
growth.
2.8
10.0
16.0
43.0
47.0
59.4
60.0
85.0
125.7
154.0
154.4
170.0
231.0
237.7
249.1
347.6
380.0
428.0
657.0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Utilities
Information
Nondurable goods
Other services
Mining and logging
Motor vehicles and parts
Government
Financial activities
Wholesale trade
Durable goods
Transportation and warehousing
Manufacturing
Construction
Temporary help services
Retail trade
Health care and social assistance
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health services
Professional and business services
12-month net change (thousands)
PBS
Education and health
Leisure and hospitality
Retail trade
Manufacturing
Financial activities
All other jobs
Annually, PBS remains the leader, representing one-quarter of
the 2.6 million jobs added over the past 12 months
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
7
Core subsectors added 75.8 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Change in '000s jobs
Growth in the private sector results in second consecutive 24-
month growth of more than 5.0 million jobs
Private sector hiring up 5.0
million since October 2012
Public sector hiring up 17,000
workers since October 2012
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Une
mpl
oym
ent (
%)
Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college
Bucking the overall trend, unemployment for bachelor’s degree
holders and high school graduates inched up slightly
3.1%
5.7%
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
9
Labor force participation in both segments has remained
largely flat and at record lows
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
10
54.0%
55.0%
56.0%
57.0%
58.0%
59.0%
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
70.0%
71.0%
72.0%
73.0%
74.0%
75.0%
76.0%
77.0%
78.0%
79.0%
80.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Hig
h sc
hool
gra
duat
e la
bor
forc
e pa
rtic
ipat
ion
rate
(%
)
Col
lege
gra
duat
e la
bor
forc
e pa
rtic
ipat
ion
rate
(%
)
Bachelor's degree High school, no college
Both goods-producing and service-providing employment are
growing faster, posting notable increases in job creation
-1,000.0
-800.0
-600.0
-400.0
-200.0
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1-m
onth
net
cha
nge
(tho
usan
ds)
Goods-producing Service-providing
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
11
Total non-farm, energy, tech and office-using are all seeing
growth in rate of job gains; tech still leads
-11.0
-9.0
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm
Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through September 2014.
12
12-m
onth
% c
hang
e (jo
bs)
Tech still leading but slightly slower in line with national
trends, while energy remains up-and-down
Year-on-year percent employment growth
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
13
Initial unemployment claims continue to fall and have been
below 300,000 for eight consecutive weeks
Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
14
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
Cla
ims
Initial claims 4-week moving average
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Une
mpl
oym
ent r
ate
(%)
Con
sum
er c
onfid
ence
inde
x
Consumer confidence index
Unemployment rate
Consumer confidence rebounded from its dip in September to a
recovery high in October of 94.5 points
Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
Quits are slowly rising as worker sentiment about the job
market bounces back, while hires are also on the up
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Qui
ts (
thou
sand
s)
Quits Hires
Both private and public employees have seen compensation
growth slower than previous cycles
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
12-m
onth
% c
hang
e in
EC
I
Private Public
2.0% Private
1.8% Public
5-year
average growth
17
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Information, leisure and mining lead wage growth; all
subsectors post increases in line with macroeconomic
recovery
0.0%
1.2%
1.3%
1.4%
1.4%
1.7%
2.0%
2.5%
2.7%
2.8%
4.0%
4.4%
5.0%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
Utilities
Transportation and warehousing
Manufacturing
Wholesale trade
Education and health
Construction
Retail trade
Other services
Financial activities
PBS
Mining and logging
Leisure and hospitality
Information
12-month % change in average weekly wages
18
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Houston regains title as fastest-growing employment market
among major metros; Sunbelt still reigns supreme in job creation
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
19
Dallas
3.2%
Houston
4.3%
Austin
3.6%
Jacksonville
3.3%
Raleigh-
Durham
3.2%
Silicon Valley
3.5%
Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still posting
job growth below 0.5 percent year-on-year, however
20
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Detroit
0.3%
Washington,
DC
0.3%
New Jersey
0.1%
Kansas City
0.5%
Columbus
-0.7%
Hampton
Roads
0.5%
The labor force participation rate stayed flat a near-recovery
low of 62.8 percent, contributing to declines in unemployment
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
21
60.0%
61.0%
62.0%
63.0%
64.0%
65.0%
66.0%
67.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Labo
r fo
rce
part
icip
atio
n ra
te (
%)
Total unemployment is falling faster than the official
unemployment rate, now at 11.5 percent
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
Total unemployment U-6 10-year average
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
22
Diverse gains and strong performance by leisure, hospitality
and health result in only one-sixth of new jobs as office-using
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
23
Revisions push down PBS and, in turn, office-using job growth
in October
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Information Professional and business services Financial activities
PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.
In October 2014, it represented all net new office jobs.
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
24
Temporary help services is still on its way to 3.0 million jobs,
but rate of growth slightly slower and more stable
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mon
thly
net
cha
nge
in jo
bs (
ths)
Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment
Temporary em
ployment (ths)
Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
25
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