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UVAC ConferenceWhat might happen in 2015?
York
Andy Westwood
November 2014
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Six challenges for HE institutions 2015-2020
• Political decisions about undergraduate fees and numbers
• Immigration and student visas• Research funding and the REF results• Capital funding• Specialist, ‘high cost’ and WP funds • Increasing competition (and demographic
squeeze)
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Six big political themes for 2015 onwards?
• Political and policy instability – both sides of May 2015…
• Continued public spending squeeze – especially for unprotected departments
• Likelihood of system and funding change in all four nations in 2015-2020
• Cost and homogeneity of HE• Productivity and growth (the real ‘long term’
economic plan’…)• The ‘Global Race’...
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2014 cycle… record numbers?
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Overall numbers dropping(but increasing in FT)…
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The Rise of the ‘Gringo’…?
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Declining numbers of young people (in UK) until 2021...
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What is happening to ‘other’ HE?
• 28% fall in Postgraduate study• 50% fall in part time study• Big falls in non honours degree provision• Big falls in employer (public and private)
funded provision
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Is there a Higher Education bubble?
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Whoever gets in – there isn’t much money…
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Permanent system or sliding off a cliff…
• RAB charge of 45% (and rising…)• 60% of students will never fully pay back their loans• Continuing cuts - HEFCE grant letter and more to come• But other indicators of dissatisfaction?• YouGov 60% of parents dissatisfied with fee levels• Top pay and continuing industrial action
• So there is a market for HE ideas and policies and prospect of very different propositions at election...
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What might policy/politics offer?
• Labour committing to £6k (+ HEFCE grant?),
technical degrees & apprenticeships, industrial policy• Conservatives: £9k plus expansion, but further cuts to
HEFCE (and BIS) and loan book sell offs (including to universities)
• Lib Dems to endorse current fee regime and commit to free tuition when it's affordable... National Colleges (a future for FE & HE), cut out the ‘dross’…
• UKIP reduce numbers but
remove students from migration stats• Differentiation across UK?
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Coalitions or minority Governments will look to common ground…
• Shared thinking on science and research?• Industrial Policy?• Devolution (skills, innovation etc)?• Higher level skills and apprenticeships• Regulation?
• But less agreement on undergraduate fees (within England or UK)?
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Reimagining higher education?
• End or beginning of ‘one size fits all’?• Crosland and Robbins? Or expansion but in more
than one dimension?• Return of the Polytechnic or the College of
Advanced Technology?• Diverse – institutions, modes, qualifications, age?• More locally/regionally focused with more
devolution in system?• More industrial strategy – applied research in key
sectors, co-investment and co-creation?
• More thoughtful institutional strategy?
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Challenges?
• The ‘identikit’ strategic plan? - increase market share, rise up league tables, internationalise, invest in student experience (build…)
• Risk (managing and taking)• Efficiencies (making more)• Differentiating & diversifying (doing different things well)• Real partnerships with employers, places and other
institutions• Confidence (being comfortable in own skin…)