Cisco Visual Networking Index and VNI Service Adoption
Lucas Olocco
June 11, 2014
Global and Latin America (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico) Forecast Update 2013–2018
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Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Service Adoption & IP Traffic Growth
Cisco VNI Forecasts are complementary and statistically aligned.
VNI VNI VNI VNI VNI
Service Adoption Forecast
Fixed & Mobile IP Traffic Forecast
FIXED MOBILE RESIDENTIAL MOBILE BUSINESS
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More Video Viewing 79% of All IP Traffic
Faster Broadband Speeds 2.6-Fold Speed Increase
More Devices 21 Billion Connections
More Internet Users 4 Billion Internet Users
Traffic & Service Adoption Drivers, 2013–2018
Growth Catalysts
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Establishing the Zettabyte Era
1.6 zettabytes is equal to:
• 13X more than all IP traffic generated in 2008 (121 exabytes)
• 1day / 24 hours of ultra-HD video per person of the world population
By 2018, global IP traffic will reach an annual run rate of 1.6 zettabytes per year
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
• One trillion gigabytes
• Approximately 1021 (1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes)
What is a zettabyte?
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VNI Projections and Actuals (Global) Actual Growth Has Been Within 10% of Projected Growth
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Exabytes per Month
50
39
51
36
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
IP Traffic in 2013 Internet Traffic in 2013
Projected in 2010 Actual
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51 62 76 91 110
132
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Global IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global IP Traffic will Increase 3X from 2013 to 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
21% CAGR
Exabytes per Month
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3.5 4.4 5.3 6.4 7.6
8.9
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Latin America IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line LATAM IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.5X from 2013 to 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
21% CAGR
Exabytes per Month
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0.33 0.41 0.49 0.58 0.67 0.78
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Argentina IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Argentina IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.4X from 2013 to 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
19% CAGR
Exabytes per Month
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1.6 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.4 3.9
0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Brazil IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Brazil IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.5X from 2013 to 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
20% CAGR
Exabytes per Month
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0.21 0.26 0.32 0.38 0.45
0.52
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Chile IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Chile IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.5X from 2013 to 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
20% CAGR
Exabytes per Month
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0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5
1.8
0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mexico IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Mexico IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.8X from 2013 to 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
23% CAGR
Exabytes per Month
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0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6
1.9
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Rest of Latin America IP Traffic Growth / Top-Line Rest of LATAM IP Traffic will Increase More Than 2.6X from 2013 to 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
21% CAGR
Exabytes per Month
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Latin America (LATAM) (21% CAGR) Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) (23% CAGR) Middle East and Africa (MEA) (38% CAGR) Western Europe (WE) (18% CAGR) North America (NA) (20% CAGR) Asia Pacific (APAC) (21% CAGR)
Global IP Traffic Growth / Regions MEA has the Highest Growth Rate at 38% CAGR 2013–2018 APAC will Generate 35% of all IP Traffic by 2018
30.8%
35.9%
14.6%
7.8% 6.8%
4.1%
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
21% CAGR
Exabytes per Month
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0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Rest of LATAM (21% CAGR) Chile (20% CAGR) Argentina (19% CAGR) Mexico (23% CAGR) Brazil (20% CAGR)
LATAM IP Traffic Growth / Countries Mexico has the Highest Growth Rate at 23% CAGR 2013–2018 Brazil will Generate 44% of all IP Traffic by 2018
20.4%
43.7%
8.8%
21.2%
5.9%
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
21% CAGR
Exabytes per Month
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Global Internet Users Growth By 2018, There Will Be Nearly 4 Billion Internet Users
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
North America
317 Million by 2018 CAGR 2%
Latin America
371 Million by 2018 CAGR 9.6%
Western Europe
346 Million by 2018 CAGR 1.4%
Middle East & Africa
431 Million by 2018 CAGR 15.1%
Central/Eastern Europe
339 Million by 2018 CAGR 8.6%
Asia Pacific
2.1 Billion by 2018 CAGR 11.2%
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Global Device Growth By 2018, There Will Be ~21 Billion Networked Devices/Connections
North America
3.4 Billion by 2018 CAGR 13%
Latin America
1.7 Billion by 2018 CAGR 9%
Western Europe
2.8 Billion by 2018 CAGR 11%
Middle East & Africa
2 Billion by 2018 CAGR 9%
Central/Eastern Europe
1.6 Billion by 2018 CAGR 10%
Asia Pacific
9.2 Billion by 2018 CAGR 11%
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 16 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
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By 2018, over half of the world’s population (52%) will have Internet access. By 2018, there will be 2.7 device/connections per capita. By 2018, 50% of all device/connections will be mobile-connected.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
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By 2018, over two-third of the population (67%) will have Internet access. By 2018, there will be 3.4 device/connections per capita. By 2018, 55% of all device/connections will be mobile-connected.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Argentina
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By 2018, over two-third of the population (68%) will have Internet access. By 2018, there will be 3.1 device/connections per capita. By 2018, 55% of all device/connections will be mobile-connected.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Brazil
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By 2018, over two-third of the population (68%) will have Internet access. By 2018, there will be 4 device/connections per capita. By 2018, 48% of all device/connections will be mobile-connected.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Chile
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By 2018, over two-third of the population (54%) will have Internet access. By 2018, there will be 2.4 device/connections per capita. By 2018, 51% of all device/connections will be mobile-connected.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Mexico
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North America
2.5-fold Growth 18–43 Mbps
Latin America
2.6-fold Growth 6–16 Mbps
Western Europe
2.5-fold Growth 19–49 Mbps
Middle East & Africa
2.6-fold Growth 6–15 Mbps
Central/Eastern Europe
2.6-fold Growth 18–45 Mbps
Asia Pacific
2.7-fold Growth 18–48 Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 22 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Fixed Broadband Speed Acceleration 2.6X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (16 Mbps) to 2018 (42 Mbps)
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In Argentina, fixed broadband speeds will grow 2.6-fold reaching 11 Mbps by 2018, up from 4.1 Mbps in 2013.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018
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In Brazil, fixed broadband speeds will grow 2.5-fold reaching 17 Mbps by 2018, up from 6.8 Mbps in 2013.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018
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In Chile, fixed broadband speeds will grow 2.5-fold reaching 28 Mbps by 2018, up from 11 Mbps in 2013.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018
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In Mexico, fixed broadband speeds will grow 2.7-fold reaching 19 Mbps by 2018, up from 7 Mbps in 2013.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018
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North America
40.5 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 84%
Latin America
8.9 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 81%
Western Europe
19.3 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 79%
Middle East & Africa
5.3 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 79%
Central/Eastern Europe
10.2 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 70%
Asia Pacific
47.3 EB/Month by 2018 Video Share = 77%
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 27 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global IP Traffic - Increasing Video Viewing By 2018, Video Represents 79% of Global IP Traffic
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In Argentina, monthly IP video traffic will grow 4-fold reaching 595 PB by 2018, up from 168 PB in 2013. By 2018, IP video will be 76% of all IP traffic in Argentina.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018
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In Brazil, monthly IP video traffic will grow 3-fold reaching 3.2 EB by 2018, up from 1.0 EB in 2013. By 2018, IP video will be 82% of all IP traffic in Brazil.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018
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In Chile, monthly IP video traffic will grow 4-fold reaching 393 PB by 2018, up from 111 PB in 2013. By 2018, IP video will be 75% of all IP traffic in Chile.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018
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In Mexico, monthly IP video traffic will grow 4-fold reaching 1.6 EB by 2018, up from 428 PB in 2013. By 2018, IP video will be 85% of all IP traffic in Mexico.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018
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Average Global Internet Bandwidth Usage
By 2018
30 GB per month
In 2013
15 GB per month 75 GB per month
Future
By 2018
73 GB per month
In 2013
36 GB per month 150 GB per month
Future Average Traffic per Household
Average Traffic per User
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
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Average LATAM Internet Bandwidth Usage
By 2018
25 GB per month
In 2013
14 GB per month 75 GB per month
Future
By 2018
72 GB per month
In 2013
40 GB per month 150 GB per month
Future Average Traffic per Household
Average Traffic per User
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
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Average Argentina Internet Bandwidth Usage
By 2018
27 GB per month
In 2013
15 GB per month 75 GB per month
Future
By 2018
72 GB per month
In 2013
40 GB per month 150 GB per month
Future Average Traffic per Household
Average Traffic per User
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
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Average Brazil Internet Bandwidth Usage
By 2018
30 GB per month
In 2013
20 GB per month 75 GB per month
Future
By 2018
78 GB per month
In 2013
51 GB per month 150 GB per month
Future Average Traffic per Household
Average Traffic per User
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
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Average Chile Internet Bandwidth Usage
By 2018
48 GB per month
In 2013
26 GB per month 75 GB per month
Future
By 2018
119 GB per month
In 2013
63 GB per month 150 GB per month
Future Average Traffic per Household
Average Traffic per User
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
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Average Mexico Internet Bandwidth Usage
By 2018
22 GB per month
In 2013
11 GB per month 75 GB per month
Future
By 2018
71 GB per month
In 2013
34 GB per month 150 GB per month
Future Average Traffic per Household
Average Traffic per User
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
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VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
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Global Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M More than a Third of the Total Connections
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
11% CAGR
Billions of Devices
0
5
10
15
20
25
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
M2M (18.6%,35.2%)
Smartphones (14.1%,19.1%)
Non-Smartphones (37.6%,16.8%)
TV (10.0%,12.8%)
PCs (12.2%,7.0%)
Tablets (2.3%,5.0%)
Other Portable Devices (5.2%,4.1%)
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Increasing Video Definition By 2018, More than 20% of Global Connected Flat Panel TV Sets will be 4K
1 8 28
63
119
202
0
50
100
150
200
250
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
SD 2 Mbps
HD 7.2 Mbps
UHD 18 Mbps
Connected 4K TV Sets (M)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
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Latin America Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M and Smartphones Over Half of the Total Connections
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
9% CAGR
Billions of Devices
0
1
2
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
M2M (14.7%,26.7%)
Smartphones (14.1%,24.2%)
Non-Smartphones (47.3%,17.5%)
TV (4.4%,13.3%)
PCs (14.9%,9.1%)
Tablets (1.4%,4.8%)
Other Portable Devices (3.1%,4.4%)
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Brazil Connected Devices Growth by Type By 2018, M2M and Smartphones Over Half of the Total Connections
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
9% CAGR
Billions of Devices
0.0
0.5
1.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
M2M (15.6%,29.1%)
Smartphones (17.3%,27.1%)
Non-Smartphones (42.9%,11.1%)
TV (4.3%,13.1%)
PCs (15.7%,10.3%)
Tablets (1.2%,4.7%)
Other Portable Devices (3.1%,4.6%)
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Average Global Traffic per Device (2013)
= Tablet
Ultra High Definition TV
Laptop/PC
Internet Set-Top or Dongle
4.0 GB
= 22.9 GB*
22.7 GB
= 8.0 GB
* Includes IP VoD Traffic Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
=
= Smartphone 1.0 GB
= M2M Module 78 MB
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Global IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 57% of Global IP Traffic
Exabytes per Month
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.1%)
Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.4%)
M2M (0.4%,2.8%)
Tablets (2.2%,14.0%)
Smartphones (3.5%,16.3%)
TV (26.5%,23.6%)
PCs (67.2%,42.8%)
21% CAGR
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
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Latin America IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive Nearly 40% of LATAM IP Traffic
Exabytes per Month
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.1%)
Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.5%)
M2M (0.2%,2.0%)
Tablets (1.0%,9.4%)
Smartphones (2.3%,13.9%)
TV (5.3%,12.7%)
PCs (91.1%,61.4%)
21% CAGR
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
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Brazil IP Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 32% of Brazil IP Traffic
Exabytes per Month
0
1
2
3
4
5
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Non-Smartphones (0.0%,0.0%)
Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.5%)
M2M (0.2%,1.7%)
Tablets (0.6%,6.4%)
Smartphones (2.3%,12.1%)
TV (4.8%,11.5%)
PCs (92.0%,67.8%)
20% CAGR
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
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Global Internet Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 50% of Global Internet Traffic
Exabytes per Month
23% CAGR
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.2%)
Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.5%)
M2M (0.5%,3.7%)
TV (4.7%,6.2%)
Tablets (3.1%,18.0%)
Smartphones (5.0%,21.0%)
PCs (86.4%,50.5%)
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Latin America Internet Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive a Third of LATAM Internet Traffic
Exabytes per Month
20% CAGR
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Non-Smartphones (0.1%,0.1%)
Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.6%)
M2M (0.2%,2.2%)
TV (0.9%,3.6%)
Tablets (1.1%,10.7%)
Smartphones (2.5%,15.9%)
PCs (95.1%,66.8%)
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Brazil Internet Traffic by Device Type By 2018, Non-PC Devices will Drive 27% of Brazil Internet Traffic
Exabytes per Month
19% CAGR
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
0
1
2
3
4
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Non-Smartphones (0.0%,0.0%)
Other Portable Devices (0.1%,0.6%)
M2M (0.2%,1.9%)
TV (0.9%,3.7%)
Tablets (0.7%,7.2%)
Smartphones (2.5%,13.6%)
PCs (95.7%,73.1%)
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VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
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Global M2M Connections / IoE Growth By 2018, Nearly 1 M2M Connection per Capita
M2M Connections
(M)
26% CAGR
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Asia Pacific (26.3% CAGR) Central & Eastern Europe (25.7% CAGR) Latin America (23% CAGR) Middle East & Africa (25.2% CAGR) North America (27% CAGR) Western Europe (24.6% CAGR)
Source: Machina Researc, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
2.3 B 2.9 B
3.7 B
4.7 B
5.9 B
7.3 B
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Global M2M Traffic Growth M2M Traffic Will Grow 21-fold from 2013 to 2018
Petabytes per
Month
84% CAGR
Source: Machina Research, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Asia Pacific (77.4% CAGR) Central & Eastern Europe (92.7% CAGR) Latin America (87.5% CAGR) Middle East & Africa (91.5% CAGR) North America (91.1% CAGR) Western Europe (85.5% CAGR)
0.2 EB 0.3 EB
0.6 EB
1.2 EB
2.1 EB
3.7 EB
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Globally, M2M connections will grow more than 3-fold from 2013 (2.3B) to 2018 (7.3B) Globally, M2M traffic will account for 3% of total IP traffic by 2018, up from 0.4% in 2013
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
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In Brazil, M2M connections will grow nearly 3-fold from 2013 (65M) to 2018 (187M) In Brazil, M2M traffic will account for 1.7% of total IP traffic by 2018, up from 0.2% in 2013
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
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Internet of Everything Smart Cars Will Have Nearly 4 M2M Modules Per Car by 2018 Smart Cars Will Drive 41 Petabytes (PB) of Monthly Traffic by 2018
Smart Cars Traffic (PB/
Month)
Source: Machina Research, Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Smart Cars (M)
35 57
90
136
192
256
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
3 5 8
15
25
41
0 5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
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VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
Cisco Confidential 57 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
North America
2.5-fold Growth 18–43 Mbps
Latin America
2.6-fold Growth 6–16 Mbps
Western Europe
2.5-fold Growth 19–49 Mbps
Middle East & Africa
2.6-fold Growth 6–15 Mbps
Central/Eastern Europe
2.6-fold Growth 18–45 Mbps
Asia Pacific
2.7-fold Growth 18–48 Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 57 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Fixed Broadband Speed Acceleration 2.6X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (16 Mbps) to 2018 (42 Mbps)
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Higher Fixed Speeds Enable Greater Video Consumption Video Behaviors are Consistent Across Multiple Countries
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 Fixed Broadband Speeds (Kbps)
Video Minutes per Viewer
Linear (Video Minutes per Viewer)
Video Minutes
per Viewer
Source: Cisco VNI, 2014
Indonesia India
Argentina Italy
Mexico
Brazil Australia
Chile
Russia Canada
U.K.
Sweden
Japan
Germany
China New Zealand
France
Spain U.S.
Cisco Confidential 59 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Faster Networks Enable Better Experiences
Online Video (HD movie download)
22 minutes Online Video
(HD movie download)
4 minutes Online Video
(HD movie download)
2 minutes
55% of all broadband connections by 2018
10 Mbps
22% of all broadband connections by 2018
50 Mbps 100 Mbps
3% of all broadband connections by 2018
(UHD movie download)
2 hours
(UHD movie download)
23 minutes
(UHD movie download)
12 minutes
Cisco Confidential 60 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
North America
2-fold Growth 12–23 Mbps
Latin America
2-fold Growth 5–10 Mbps
Western Europe
2-fold Growth 11–21 Mbps
Middle East & Africa
2.1-fold Growth 4–8.4 Mbps
Central/Eastern Europe
2.4-fold Growth 9–21 Mbps
Asia Pacific
2.1-fold Growth 10–22 Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 60 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Wi-Fi Speed Acceleration 2.2X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (10 Mbps) to 2018 (21 Mbps)
Cisco Confidential 61 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
In Brazil, Wi-Fi speeds will grow 2.0-fold reaching 10 Mbps by 2018, up from 4.8 Mbps in 2013.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018
Cisco Confidential 62 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Surge of Hotspots
Globally, there will be 53 million hotspots by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Plans to have 8 million US hotspots by end of 2014
Supports approx. 7 million hotspots in UK today
Offers more than 620K hotspots in Asia today
Offers more than 500K hotspots in LATAM today
Cisco Confidential 63 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Future of Wi-Fi as Wired Complement
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
802.11 2 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Basic internet
802.11b 11 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Email
802.11b 11 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Rich Media Web
802.11ac 3.6 Gbps Max
Applications Enabled
High Resolution Video Wired Complement
802.11n 600 Mbps Max Applications Enabled Medium Resolution Video
Number of 802.11ac Home CPE to Increase 13-fold from 2013 to 2018
Cisco Confidential 64 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
North America
2.6-fold Growth 1.7 to 4.5 Mbps
Latin America
1.5-fold Growth 0.7 to 1 Mbps
Western Europe
1.9-fold Growth 1.6 to 3.0 Mbps
Middle East & Africa
1.7-fold Growth 0.5 to 0.9 Mbps
Central/Eastern Europe
1.7-fold Growth 1.4 to 2.3 Mbps
Asia Pacific
1.5-fold Growth 1.3 to 2.0 Mbps
Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 64 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Mobile Speed Growth Nearly 2X Average Speed Increase from 2013 (1.4 Mbps) to 2018 (2.5 Mbps)
Cisco Confidential 65 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
In Brazil, mobile speeds will grow 2.0-fold reaching 1.2 Mbps by 2018, up from 657 kbps in 2013.
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Forecast, 2013–2018
Cisco Confidential 66 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
Cisco Confidential 67 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi-Fi Will Surpass Fixed/Wired With 49% IP Traffic Share by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mobile Data (61% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (12% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (71% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR)
39%
36%
12%
21% CAGR 2013–2018
13%
Cisco Confidential 68 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
LATAM IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi-Fi Will Surpass Fixed/Wired With 58% IP Traffic Share by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
10,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mobile Data (66% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (12% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (84% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (18% CAGR)
29%
49%
13%
21% CAGR 2013–2018
9%
Cisco Confidential 69 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Brazil IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi-Fi Will Surpass Fixed/Wired With 57% IP Traffic Share by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0 500
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mobile Data (63% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (12% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (77% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR)
31%
50%
11%
20% CAGR 2013–2018
7%
Cisco Confidential 70 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Internet Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi-Fi Dominates With 61% of Internet Traffic Share by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mobile Data (61% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (10% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (71% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR)
24%
44%
15%
23% CAGR 2013–2018
17%
Cisco Confidential 71 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
LATAM Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi-Fi Dominates With 64% of Internet Traffic Share by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mobile Data (66% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (6% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (84% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (18% CAGR)
21%
54%
15%
20% CAGR 2013–2018
10%
Cisco Confidential 72 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Brazil Traffic by Local Access Technology Fixed/Wi-Fi Dominates With 63% of Internet Traffic Share by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0 500
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Mobile Data (63% CAGR) Fixed/Wired (7% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Mobile Devices (77% CAGR) Fixed/Wi-Fi from Wi-Fi Only Devices (19% CAGR)
25%
55%
13%
19% CAGR 2013–2018
8%
Cisco Confidential 73 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
Cisco Confidential 74 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Metro vs. Long-Haul Traffic by Topology, 2013 and 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Cisco Confidential 75 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
LATAM Metro versus Long-Haul Traffic Topology
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Cisco Confidential 76 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Brazil Metro versus Long-Haul Traffic Topology
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Cisco Confidential 77 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Content Delivery Network Internet Traffic
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Non-CDN Internet Traffic (63.8%, 44.7%) CDN Internet Traffic (36.2%, 55.3%)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Exabytes per Month
Cisco Confidential 78 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
LATAM Content Delivery Network Internet Traffic
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Non-CDN Internet Traffic (84.8%, 75.2%) CDN Internet Traffic (15.2%, 24.8%)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Exabytes per Month
Cisco Confidential 79 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
Cisco Confidential 80 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global IP Video Traffic Growth IP Video Will Account for 79% of Global IP Traffic by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gaming (0.05%, 0.09%) File Sharing (13%, 6%) Web/Data (21%, 15%) IP VOD (23%, 19%)
21% CAGR 2013–2018
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share
Cisco Confidential 81 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Latin America IP Video Traffic Growth IP Video Will Account for 81% of Global IP Traffic by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
10,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gaming (0.03%, 0.06%) File Sharing (18%, 7%) Web/Data (23%, 12%) IP VOD (4%, 10%)
21% CAGR 2013–2018
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share
Cisco Confidential 82 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Brazil IP Video Traffic Growth IP Video Will Account for 82% of Global IP Traffic by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0 500
1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Gaming (0.02%, 0.05%) File Sharing (12%, 6%) Web/Data (24%, 12%) IP VOD (4%, 8%)
20% CAGR 2013–2018
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share
Cisco Confidential 83 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Higher Definition Content Impacts Global IP Video Growth Ultra-HD IP Video Will Account for 11% of Global IP Video Traffic by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.1%, 11%)
25% CAGR 2013–2018
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share
Cisco Confidential 84 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Higher Definition Content Impacts LATAM IP Video Growth Ultra-HD Will Account for 2.5% of LATAM IP Video Traffic by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.1%, 2.5%)
28% CAGR 2013–2018
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share
Cisco Confidential 85 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Higher Definition Content Impacts Brazil IP Video Growth Ultra-HD Will Account for 2.8% of Brazil IP Video Traffic by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.1%, 2.8%)
26% CAGR 2013–2018
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share
Cisco Confidential 86 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0
100
200
300
1 6 11 16
Long Tail Video Top 10* Sites Account for 41% of Videos Viewed (and >39% of Video Minutes)
Video Minutes
(B)
Top Video Sites
Cisco Confidential 87 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1 6 11 16
Long Tail Video (Traffic) Top 10* Sites Account for 60% of Video Traffic
Exabytes per month
(EB)
Top Video Sites
Cisco Confidential 88 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Top Global Internet Video Sites by Traffic Volume (PC-Based Viewing)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Site PB per Month
1 Google / YouTube 1,977
2 FC2 539
3 Youku & Tudou 524
4 Dwango 476
5 LETV.COM 398
6 IQIYI.COM 358
7 Sohu.com Inc. 288
8 NETFLIX.COM 194
9 TENCENT Inc. 162
10 Facebook 146
Site PB per Month
11 Xunlei Networking 136
12 VEVO 86
13 Vimeo 72
14 Mail.ru Group 70
15 Dailymotion 68
16 Ustream 67
17 ALLMYVIDEOS.NET 60
18 BIGCINEMA.TV 60
19 NOWVIDEO.SX 58
20 Yahoo Sites 56
Cisco Confidential 89 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Internet Video Consumption Short Form Most Popular
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Video Minute (B)
55%
39%
4% 1% 0
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Short Form Video Site
Long Form Video Site
Extra-Long Form Video Site
Micro-Video Site
Cisco Confidential 90 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Growing Length of Global Internet Video Long Form Video Will Account for 72% of Internet Traffic by 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Long Form Video (64%, 72%)
Short Form and Micro Video (34%, 28%)
30% CAGR 2013–2018
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share
Cisco Confidential 91 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
Cisco Confidential 92 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Residential Market, by 2018:
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
63% (2.5 billion) of Internet users will have fixed residential internet access. 86% (1.5 billion) TV households will be digital TV households. There will be 8 billion fixed residential devices and connections (up from 3.8 billion in 2013). Average household will have 3.7 fixed devices and connections (up from 1.9 in 2013).
Cisco Confidential 93 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Residential Services By 2018, Online Video Will Grow the Fastest; Digital TV Will Have Highest Adoption
Online Music
Social Networking
Online Video
Online Gaming
VoIP
Digital TV
Video on Demand
Time Delayed TV
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2018 % Adop+on
Note: By 2018, the global residential fixed internet population will be 2.5 billion; the number of global TV households will be 1.8 billion.
CAGR 2013–2018
Cisco Confidential 94 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Latin America Residential Market, by 2018:
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
63% (235 million) of Internet users will have fixed residential internet access. 71% (122 million) TV households will be digital TV households. There will be 562 million fixed residential devices and connections (up from 245 million in 2013). Average household will have 3.1 fixed devices and connections (up from 1.5 in 2013).
Cisco Confidential 95 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Latin America Residential Services By 2018, Online Video Will Grow the Fastest; Social Networking Will Have Highest Adoption
Note: By 2018, Latin America residential fixed internet population will be 235 million; the number of Latin America TV households will be 171 million.
CAGR 2013–2018
Online Music
Social Networking
Online Video
Online Gaming
VoIP
Digital TV
Video on Demand
Time Delayed TV
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2018 % Adoption
Cisco Confidential 96 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Residential Services Implications / Opportunities
Residential Market Dynamics Residential Opportunities for Service Providers
• More / new connections
• Preference for mobility
• Need to monetize increased network demand
• Extend content / service reach across new devices and connections
• Partner and form new eco-systems with OTTPs
• Develop Wi-Fi / mobility plans
• Bolster service portfolio with value-added IoE / M2M applications
Cisco Confidential 97 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Consumer Mobile Market, by 2018:
Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2013–2018
There will be 4.8 billion consumer mobile users (64% of population). There will be 8.9 billion consumer mobile devices and connections. Average consumer mobile user will have 1.8 mobile devices and connections (up from 1.5 in 2013).
Cisco Confidential 98 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Consumer Mobile Services By 2018, Consumer LBS Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile Social Networking Will Have the Highest Adoption
CAGR 2013–2018
Note: By 2018, the global consumer mobile population will be 4.8 billion.
MMS
Mobile Social Networking
Mobile Email Consumer
LBS Mobile Gaming
Mobile Banking & Commerce
Mobile Video
Mobile Music
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0%
20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%
2018 % Adop+on
Cisco Confidential 99 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Latin America Consumer Mobile Market, by 2018:
Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2013–2018
There will be 450 million consumer mobile users (69% of population). There will be 813 million consumer mobile devices and connections. Average consumer mobile user will have 1.8 mobile devices and connections (up from 1.5 in 2013).
Cisco Confidential 100 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Latin America Consumer Mobile Services By 2018, Consumer LBS Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile Social Networking Will Have the Highest Adoption
CAGR 2013–2018
Note: By 2018, Latin America consumer mobile population will be 450 million.
MMS Mobile Social Networking
Mobile Email
Consumer LBS
Mobile Gaming
Mobile Banking & Commerce
Mobile Video Mobile
Music
0% 5%
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60%
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2018 % Adoption
Cisco Confidential 101 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Consumer Mobile Implications / Opportunities
Consumer Mobile Market Dynamics Consumer Mobile Opportunities for Service Providers
• More / new devices and connections
• Demand for seamless transition / experience between fixed and mobile
• Demand for Wi-Fi offload and faster speeds
• Need to monetize increased network demand
• Extend reach of traditional / brick and mortar services
• Shared data plans
• Blend service offers with online services / content
• Developing / monetizing Wi-Fi offers
• Partner with device manufacturers / content creators (consider busy /peak demands)
Cisco Confidential 102 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Business Market, by 2018:
Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2013–2018
There will be 2.1 billion business Internet users (62% of global work force). There will be 582 million business mobile users (17% of global work force). There will be 3.9 billion business devices and connections (up from 2.5 billion in 2013). Average business internet user will have
1.8 devices and connections There will be 1.4 billion business mobile device and connections (up from 878 million in 2013).
Average business mobile user will have 2.4 mobile devices and connections
Cisco Confidential 103 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Global Business Services By 2018 Personal Video Conferencing Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile SMS Will Have the Highest Adoption
CAGR 2013–2018
Note: By 2018, the global business Internet population will be 2.1 billion; the number of business mobile users will be 582 million.
SMS
Mobile Email Room Based Video
Conferencing
IP Telephony
Business LBS
Audio Conferencing
Desktop Video Conferencing
Web Conferencing w/o Video
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90%
2018 % Adoption
Cisco Confidential 104 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Latin America Business Market, by 2018:
Source: Cisco VNI Service Adoption Forecast, 2013–2018
There will be 205 million business Internet users (68% of global work force). There will be 59 million business mobile users (19% of global work force). There will be 296 million business devices and connections (up from 205 million in 2013). Average business internet user will have
1.4 devices and connections There will be 134 million business mobile device and connections (up from 90 million in 2013).
Average business mobile user will have 2.3 mobile devices and connections
Cisco Confidential 105 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Latin America Business Services By 2018 Personal Video Conferencing Will Grow the Fastest; Mobile SMS Will Have the Highest Adoption
CAGR 2013–2018
Note: By 2018, Latin America business Internet population will be 205 million; the number of business mobile users will be 59 million.
SMS
Mobile Email Room Based
Video Conferencing
IP Telephony
Business LBS
Audio Conferencing
Desktop Video Conferencing
Web Conferencing w/o Video
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
-10% 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% 110%
2018 % Adoption
Cisco Confidential 106 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Business Services Implications / Opportunities
Business Market Dynamics Business Segment Opportunities for Service Providers
• More / new devices and connections—growing demand for BYOD
• Low penetration of mobile devices
• Growing demand for service transition from fixed to mobile
• Premium security
• Enhance productivity, customer support
• Cloud services and storage— network, computing, infrastructure
• Offer vertical specific IoE / M2M services
• Blending and bundling with other services
Cisco Confidential 107 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
Cisco Confidential 108 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour
Traffic (Gbps)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Average Hour
Busy Hour
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
28% CAGR
23% CAGR
Cisco Confidential 109 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic (LATAM) Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour
Traffic (Gbps)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Average Hour
Busy Hour
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
26% CAGR
20% CAGR
Cisco Confidential 110 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Busy Hour vs. Average Hour Internet Traffic (Brazil) Driven by Video, Busy Hour Grows Faster Than Average Hour
Traffic (Gbps)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Average Hour
Busy Hour
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
24% CAGR
19% CAGR
Cisco Confidential 111 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Busy Hour versus Average Hour Busy Hour Will Be 3.3x Higher Than Average Hour by 2018
Ratio of Busy Hour to Average Hour Traffic
2.7 2.5 2.5
3.0 2.7
2.3 2.6
3.3 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.4
2.9 3.2
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Glo
bal
APA
C
LATA
M
NA
WE
CEE
MEA
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Cisco Confidential 112 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
Cisco Confidential 113 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
1.3B
4.7B
0.7B
5B
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices
Globally, By 2018, Nearly 50% (10B) of all fixed and mobile devices/connections will be IPv6-capable, up from 16% (2B) in 2013
37% CAGR
Number of Devices
(B)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IPV6 Forecast, 2013–2018
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0.05B
0.3B
0.1B
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices
0.5B
In LATAM: By 2018, Nearly 49% (0.8B) of all fixed and mobile devices/connections will be IPv6-capable, up from 15% (0.1B) in 2013
39% CAGR
Number of Devices
(B)
Source: Cisco VNI Global IPV6 Forecast, 2013–2018
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Central/Eastern Europe
794 Million by 2018 142 Million in 2013
41% CAGR
North America
2 Billion by 2018 367 Million in 2013
40% CAGR
Source: Cisco VNI Global IPV6 Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 115 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
IPv6-Capable Fixed/Mobile Devices Forecast, 2013-2018
Western Europe
2 Billion by 2018 445 Million in 2013
31% CAGR
Asia Pacific
4 Billion by 2018 760 Million in 2013
37% CAGR
Latin America
821 Million by 2018 160 Million in 2013
39% CAGR
Middle East & Africa
702 Million by 2018 151 Million in 2013
36% CAGR
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VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
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Usage Limits: Fixed vs. Mobile Globally, More Mobile than Fixed Users Are Impacted by Usage Limits
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Country % Broadband HH > 250 GB
% Mobile Users > 2 GB
Global 2.1% 3.8%
North America 4.7% 21.6%
Western Europe 1.6% 9.5%
Asia Pacific 1.8% 2.3%
Central and Eastern Europe 1.3% 0.9%
Latin America 2.4% 1.0%
Middle East and Africa 0.1% 1.0%
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Cisco VNI Web Sites
• Press Release • White Papers / FAQs • Cisco VNI Web-based Tools / Free Apps
IP Traffic Forecast inquiries: [email protected] Service Adoption Forecast inquiries: [email protected]
IP Traffic Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vni Service Adoption Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vnisa
Source: Cisco VNI Global IPV6 Forecast, 2013–2018
Thank you.
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World Cup Traffic Estimate: Nearly 70 TB
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
30,000 passengers on daily commuter trains for one hour
would generate over 30 terabytes of Internet traffic.
30,000 passengers on multiple 7-hour flights round-trip
would generate over 12 terabytes of Internet traffic.
60,000 spectators in Itaquerão Stadium
for 120 hours would generate over
25 terabytes of Internet traffic.
Cisco Confidential 121 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
Cisco Confidential 122 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
North America
1.7-fold Growth 12%
Latin America
6.7-fold Growth 5%
Western Europe
1.7-fold Growth 7%
Middle East & Africa
2.1-fold Growth 1%
Central/Eastern Europe
2-fold Growth 40%
Asia Pacific
1.8-fold Growth 42%
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 Cisco Confidential 122 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Fiber to the Home (FTTH) Connection Penetration Japan and South Korea to Have 82% and 71% FTTH/B by 2018
Cisco Confidential 123 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
VNI Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top 10 Broadband Networking Trends
1 Device Transitions Alter Network Demand/Use
2 M2M Growth Drives the Reality of IoE
3 Broadband Speeds: Fixed versus Wi-Fi
4 Wi-Fi Dominates Access Technology
5 Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) & Traffic Topology
6 IP Video Traffic Analysis (SD, HD & UHD Trends)
7 Residential, Business & Consumer Mobile Service Adoption
8 Peak versus Average IP Traffic Growth
9 IPv6 Shows Continued Global Adoption
10 Tiered Pricing: Comparing Mobile & Fixed Data Caps
Cisco Confidential 124 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Growing Definition of Global Internet Video Ultra-HD Internet Video Will Account for 8% of Traffic in 2018
Source: Cisco VNI Global IP Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018
Petabytes per Month
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ultra-High Def (UHD) Video (0.05%, 8%)
High Def (HD) Video (24%, 46%)
Standard Def (SD) Video (76%, 46%)
30% CAGR 2013–2018
* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 traffic share
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Internet Video Micro Video Making an Impact; Asia Leads Long Form Video Viewing
0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 2% 1%
85% 83%
23% 21%
51%
75% 75%
11% 7%
77% 78% 36%
18% 22% 4% 7% 0% 1%
13% 6% 2%
0%
100%
3% 13% 6% 1% 5% 13% 9%
95% 84%
37% 40%
82% 79% 85%
2% 3%
58% 59%
12% 7% 6% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0%
0%
100%
Share of Video Minutes Share of Videos Viewed
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Netflix — U.S. and Global Long Form Video Subscription Site Generates 22 PB per Day
Netflix is video subscription service featuring long-form, professionally produced content.
Netflix users view almost 13 billion minutes of video per month on PCs alone, with additional viewing on other platforms, resulting in over 22 petabytes per day of Internet traffic.
The bulk of Netflix viewing is TV-based. 22 Petabytes per Day
SERVICE
TRAFFIC
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FC2 — Japan Video Sharing Site Generates 18 PB per Day
FC2 is a video-sharing site in Japan. Historically it has been known to allow “controversial” content, including pirated videos.
FC2 users view almost 36 billion minutes of video per month, resulting in over 18 petabytes per day of Internet traffic.
FC2 ranks #2 globally for overall traffic. 18 Petabytes per Day
SERVICE
TRAFFIC
Cisco Confidential 128 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Youku Tudou — China Online Video Site Generates 17 PB per Day
Youku Tudou is China’s largest online video site, the result of a merger of Youku and Tudou in 2012. Content on Youku was initally user-generated, but the company is now focused on professionally produced videos, licensed from over 1,500 content partners.
Youku Tudou users view almost 35 billion minutes of video per month, resulting in over 17 petabytes per day of Internet traffic.
Youku Tudou ranks #3 globally for overall traffic.
17 Petabytes per Day
SERVICE
TRAFFIC
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Niconico (Dwango) — Japan Social Video Sharing Site Generates 15 PB per Day
Niconico is a video-sharing site with strong social viewing features. Video tags are crowd-sourced and overlaid onto the video.
Niconico has 25 million users who view almost 32 billion minutes of video per month, resulting in over 15 petabytes per day of Internet traffic.
Niconico ranks #2 in Japan and #4 globally for overall video minutes, as well as traffic.
15 Petabytes per Day
SERVICE
TRAFFIC
Cisco Confidential 130 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
QQLive (Tencent)—China Live Social Television Application Generates 5 PB per Day
Tencent’s QQLive is a live video streaming application. QQLive provides two modes to view, community mode and player mode. Community mode integrates chat room and forum.
QQLive has 200 million users who view almost 20 billion minutes of video per month, resulting in over 5 petabytes per day of Internet traffic.
Tencent/QQLive ranks #5 in China and #9 globally for overall traffic.
5 Petabytes per Day
SERVICE
TRAFFIC
Cisco Confidential 131 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.
Ustream – U.S. Live and Ambient Video Site Generates 2 PB per Day
Ustream is a live video-sharing site. Contributors can use Ustream to broadcast events, games, and other content, live.
SERVICE
Ustream has 15 million users who view 2 billion minutes of video per month, resulting in over 2 petabytes per day of Internet traffic.
Ustream ranks #16 globally for overall traffic.
TRAFFIC
2 Petabytes per Day
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Twitch Media—U.S. Online Spectator Gaming Site Generates 1 PB per Day
Twitch is a live video-sharing site for gamers. Spectators can tune in to watch contributors playing games in real time.
Twitch has 45 million users who view almost 5 billion minutes of video per month, resulting in over 1 petabyte per day of Internet traffic.
Twitch ranks #10 in the US, #11 in the UK for overall video minutes, and #18 globally.
Twitch ranks #16 globally for number of videos viewed, and #30 for total traffic generated.
1 Petabyte per Day
SERVICE
TRAFFIC