Download - WAR WITH IRAN? A Geopolitical Backgrounder

WAR WITH IRAN?A Geopolitical Backgrounder

Dr. Zoltán GrossmanMember of the Faculty (Geography & Native American Studies)

The Evergreen State College, Olympia, Washington

http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz

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Iran and IraqIran and IraqEthnicity:Ethnicity:Iran has Persian majority,Iran has Persian majority,Iraq has Arab majorityIraq has Arab majority

Religion:Religion:Iran and Iraq both haveIran and Iraq both haveShi’a Muslim majoritiesShi’a Muslim majorities(past Iraqi rulers were Sunni)(past Iraqi rulers were Sunni)

Interwined histories:Interwined histories: Shi’ism, oil, monarchies, Shi’ism, oil, monarchies, wars, British/U.S. control,wars, British/U.S. control,““Axis of Evil”Axis of Evil”

Water + Oil + Size = IndustryWater + Oil + Size = Industry

“I'm not sure I can tell you the difference in Iraq and Iran.”

--Alan Jackson

Iran more geopolitically pivotalIran more geopolitically pivotal

Iran “may well prove as large a threat to U.S. interests

in the Gulf as Iraq has.”-- Project for the New

American Century

Persian/Iranian EmpiresPersian/Iranian Empires

Crossroads of empires, conquerers, religions, ethnicitiesCrossroads of empires, conquerers, religions, ethnicities

Islamic control in 637-651Islamic control in 637-651

Rule by succession of Rule by succession of ShahShah (king) dynasties (king) dynasties

Political mapPolitical map

Shi’a and Sunni regionsShi’a and Sunni regionsShi’as in dark green. The holiest Shi'ite cities of Karbala and NajafShi’as in dark green. The holiest Shi'ite cities of Karbala and Najaf

are within Iraq; Iraqi Ayatollah Sistani was born in Iran.are within Iraq; Iraqi Ayatollah Sistani was born in Iran.

Ethnic mapEthnic map

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BaluchisBaluchis

ArabsArabs

AzerisAzeris

KurdsKurdsPersiansPersians

PersiansPersians

LurisLuris

LurisLuris

BakhtiarisBakhtiaris

TurkmenTurkmen

QashqaiQashqai

PersiansPersians

Persian (Farsi-speaking) corePersian (Farsi-speaking) core



PersiansPersians51%51%

AzerisAzeris(Turkic)(Turkic)

24%24%

KurdsKurds7%7%

ArabsArabs3%3%

Ethnic minorities Ethnic minorities straddle boundariesstraddle boundaries

BaluchisBaluchis

ArabsArabs

AzerisAzeris

KurdsKurds

Ethnic groups & energy resourcesEthnic groups & energy resources

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Western IranWestern Iran

Persia never a colony?Persia never a colony?



Anglo-Persian War, Anglo-Persian War, 1856-571856-57

Ahvaz (Khuzestan)Ahvaz (Khuzestan)fell tofell to

British, 1857British, 1857

Arabs lived inArabs lived inSW regionSW regionsince 642.since 642.

Anglo-Russian “Great Game” Anglo-Russian “Great Game” spheres of influence, 1907spheres of influence, 1907

Russian EmpireRussian Empire

BritishBritishIndiaIndia

OttomanOttomanEmpireEmpire

KuwaitKuwait

Afgh.Afgh.

British take oil in Arab region, 1908British take oil in Arab region, 1908

British had engineered “protectorate” statusBritish had engineered “protectorate” statusfor “Arabistan” region in SW Persia, 1897for “Arabistan” region in SW Persia, 1897

Oil discovered by British Oil discovered by British in Arabistan, 1908in Arabistan, 1908

Start of Anglo-Persian Oil--Start of Anglo-Persian Oil--the future British Petroleum (BP)the future British Petroleum (BP)

British and Russians occupyBritish and Russians occupyPersia during World War IPersia during World War I

Oil economyOil economy

10% of world reserves10% of world reserves(2nd to Saudi Arabia)(2nd to Saudi Arabia)

Most oil in SW, in ArabMost oil in SW, in Arabminority region of Khuzestanminority region of Khuzestan

Reza Shah, 1921Reza Shah, 1921

Reza Shah emphasizes pre-IslamicReza Shah emphasizes pre-Islamicimperial glories, Persian coreimperial glories, Persian core

Nationalist but also modernizer, Nationalist but also modernizer, Pahlavi dynasty offends clericsPahlavi dynasty offends clerics

Retakes control of Arabistan, Retakes control of Arabistan, renames Khuzestan, 1925renames Khuzestan, 1925

Renames Persia as Iran, 1935Renames Persia as Iran, 1935

World War IIWorld War II

Reza Shah flirts with NazisReza Shah flirts with Nazis

British and Soviets invade, force him into exile, 1941British and Soviets invade, force him into exile, 1941

Install son Mohammad Reza Pahlevi as ShahInstall son Mohammad Reza Pahlevi as Shah

British reoccupy Khuzestan oil fields;British reoccupy Khuzestan oil fields;Soviets occupy Azeri NW IranSoviets occupy Azeri NW Iran

After World War II After World War II

Mahabad Republic in Azeri/Kurdish region, 1945-46 Mahabad Republic in Azeri/Kurdish region, 1945-46

Truman threatened nuclear weapons to forceTruman threatened nuclear weapons to forcewithdrawal of Soviet troops from NW Iran, 1946withdrawal of Soviet troops from NW Iran, 1946

Anglo-Iranian hasAnglo-Iranian hasstranglehold on stranglehold on Khuzestan oil fieldsKhuzestan oil fields

Mossadegh elected, 1951Mossadegh elected, 1951

Premier MohammedPremier MohammedMossadegh, Parliament Mossadegh, Parliament nationalizes British nationalizes British oil holdings, 1952oil holdings, 1952

U.S. portrays U.S. portrays nationalist leadernationalist leaderas a Communistas a Communist

CIA coup, 1953CIA coup, 1953CIA agent Kermit RooseveltCIA agent Kermit Rooseveltdirects military coup, installs Shahdirects military coup, installs Shahas supreme leader in Operation Ajaxas supreme leader in Operation Ajax

Mossadegh ouster was turning pointMossadegh ouster was turning point

U.S. joins British in control of oilU.S. joins British in control of oil

Shah Reza PahlaviShah Reza PahlaviWest sees as bulwark West sees as bulwark vs.vs. Communism, Communism,Arab nationalism, (later)Arab nationalism, (later)Islamist fundamentalismIslamist fundamentalism

Emphasized glorious past, Emphasized glorious past, huge palaces, kleptocracy huge palaces, kleptocracy

Nuclear bombers Nuclear bombers stationed after Iraqis stationed after Iraqis ousted monarchy, 1958ousted monarchy, 1958

U.S. sold nuclear technologyU.S. sold nuclear technologyto Shah, who wanted a Bombto Shah, who wanted a Bomb

Shah under fire, 1970sShah under fire, 1970s

Persian Gulf passes from British to U.S. dominationPersian Gulf passes from British to U.S. domination

Iran-Iraq peace treaty--U.S. sells out Kurdish rebelsIran-Iraq peace treaty--U.S. sells out Kurdish rebels

SAVAK secret police repressionSAVAK secret police repression

Religious turn againstReligious turn againsthim for secularism, tieshim for secularism, tiesto Israel, lavish coronationto Israel, lavish coronation

Increasing street protests,Increasing street protests,rebel attacksrebel attacks

Revolution begins, 1978Revolution begins, 1978Strikes by leftist Arab oil workers in KhuzestanStrikes by leftist Arab oil workers in Khuzestan

Tehran protesters massacredTehran protesters massacred

Call for return of Ayatollah Khomeini fromCall for return of Ayatollah Khomeini fromexile in France (had also been in Iraq)exile in France (had also been in Iraq)

Shah overthrown, 1979Shah overthrown, 1979Shah driven into exile, seeks medical Shah driven into exile, seeks medical treatment in U.S., Panamatreatment in U.S., Panama

Ayatollah Khomeini Ayatollah Khomeini returns as areturns as aunifying figureunifying figurefor revolutionfor revolution

Revolutionary pluralismRevolutionary pluralism

Bani Sadr’s “negative equilibrium” Bani Sadr’s “negative equilibrium” vs.vs. superpowers superpowers

Leftists, ethnic minorities had voice Leftists, ethnic minorities had voice

Revolution against Western cultural imperialism;Revolution against Western cultural imperialism;Secular women wear veil as protest Secular women wear veil as protest vsvs. U.S.. U.S.

Hostage crisis, 1979-81Hostage crisis, 1979-81Students take embassy “spy den,” demand Shah’s returnStudents take embassy “spy den,” demand Shah’s return

Carter’s helicopter/bombing raid fails to free hostages;Carter’s helicopter/bombing raid fails to free hostages;they are released the moment Reagan is inauguratedthey are released the moment Reagan is inaugurated

Turning point:Turning point: Crisis strengthened Iran & U.S. hardliners Crisis strengthened Iran & U.S. hardliners

Islamic RepublicIslamic RepublicKhomeini crushes pluralism, Khomeini crushes pluralism, consolidates control, using U.S & consolidates control, using U.S & Iraqi threats as pretextIraqi threats as pretext

Executes leftists, Kurds, Azeris, andExecutes leftists, Kurds, Azeris, andPeople’s Mujahedin of Iran (PMOI)People’s Mujahedin of Iran (PMOI)

Women’s rights restricted Women’s rights restricted by religious militiaby religious militia

Difficult for 1980s U.S. peace Difficult for 1980s U.S. peace movement:movement: no “good guys,” no “good guys,”no Christian or leftist leadershipno Christian or leftist leadership

Carter DoctrineCarter Doctrine

““Carter Doctrine” formalizes U.S. access to oil fields;Carter Doctrine” formalizes U.S. access to oil fields;threatens nuclear attack if Soviets invade Iran threatens nuclear attack if Soviets invade Iran

Start of “energy war,” Central Command, draft registration,Start of “energy war,” Central Command, draft registration,psychological conditioning of Americans for Mideast warpsychological conditioning of Americans for Mideast war

““American vital interests in the American vital interests in the Central Region are long-standing. Central Region are long-standing. With over 65% of the world’s oil With over 65% of the world’s oil reserves located in the Gulf states reserves located in the Gulf states of the region— from which the of the region— from which the United States imports nearly 20% United States imports nearly 20% of its needs; Western Europe 43%; of its needs; Western Europe 43%; and Japan, 68%--the international and Japan, 68%--the international community must have free and community must have free and unfettered access to the region’s unfettered access to the region’s resources.”resources.”

--General J. H. Binford Peay III, --General J. H. Binford Peay III,

Central Command (1997)Central Command (1997)Cited in Cited in Blood and OilBlood and Oil by Michael Klare by Michael Klare

(Metropolitan Books, 2004)(Metropolitan Books, 2004)

U.S. Central CommandU.S. Central Command

Iraq seized Khuzestan oil fields after Iranian Revolution, backedsecessionist Arab rebels (who also occupied London embassy)

Fought to bloody stalemate:Use of trenches, human wavetactics, chemical weapons.

Iraqi Shi’as fought for Iraq;Iranian Arabs fought for Iran

Iran-Iraq War,Iran-Iraq War, 1980-881980-88

Iranians

Iraqis

U.S. supported Iraq withintelligence, naval escorts

Reagan also later supplied Hawk missiles to Iran in“Iran-Contra Scandal”(to illegally raise funds to fight Sandinista Nicaragua)

Kissinger: “bleed both sides”

Iran-Iraq War,Iran-Iraq War, 1980-881980-88

U.S. naval war, U.S. naval war, 1987-881987-88

U.S. Navy escorts reflagged U.S. Navy escorts reflagged Iraqi (Kuwaiti) oil tankersIraqi (Kuwaiti) oil tankersunder Iranian missile threatunder Iranian missile threat

U.S. battles with Iranian gunboats;U.S. battles with Iranian gunboats;attacks oil platformsattacks oil platforms

““Accidentally” shot down Accidentally” shot down Iranian civilian jetlinerIranian civilian jetliner

Fear of Strait of Hormuz closure;Fear of Strait of Hormuz closure;island disputes with Gulf statesisland disputes with Gulf states

Rafsanjani presidency, 1989-97Rafsanjani presidency, 1989-97Neutral in Gulf War, 1991; Neutral in Gulf War, 1991; feared both U.S. & Saddamfeared both U.S. & Saddam

U.S. lets Saddam slaughter Iraqi Shi’a, U.S. lets Saddam slaughter Iraqi Shi’a, falsely assuming they would back Iranfalsely assuming they would back Iran

Neutral in war between Christian Armenia,Neutral in war between Christian Armenia,Shi’ite Azerbaijan Shi’ite Azerbaijan (ethnic over religious ideology)(ethnic over religious ideology)

Rafsanjani hardline at home, but notRafsanjani hardline at home, but notconfrontational to Westconfrontational to West

Accelerated nuclear energy programAccelerated nuclear energy program

Khatami presidency, 1997-2005Khatami presidency, 1997-2005

Youth supported “moderate” Youth supported “moderate” President Mohammad Khatami;President Mohammad Khatami;but faced police crackdownbut faced police crackdown

Some secular youth identify Some secular youth identify Islam with hardline regimeIslam with hardline regime

Yet even anti-regime Yet even anti-regime youth stand by regime youth stand by regime on nuclear issues, on nuclear issues, standing up to Weststanding up to West

PipelinePipelinePoliticsPolitics

In a new “Great Game, ” In a new “Great Game, ” Caspian Basin oil & gas Caspian Basin oil & gas

routes contested by:routes contested by:

Turkey (U.S.)Turkey (U.S.)

Afghanistan / Afghanistan /Pakistan (U.S.) Pakistan (U.S.)

Russia Russia

IranIran(most direct)(most direct)

Bases for wars, or wars for bases?Bases for wars, or wars for bases?

1. Gulf War, 1991

2. Yugoslav Wars, 1995-99

3. Afghan War, 2001

4. Iraq War, 2003

“Their function may be morepolitical than military. Theysend a message to everyone.” --Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, NYT 2002

Iraq War strategy:Iraq War strategy:Encircling Iran?Encircling Iran?

“The whole reason for the waris to get American troops into theregion to put pressure on othergovernments. This is going to be the main American military basein the region”

George Friedman/Strategic Forecasting

Tallil air base, Iraq

U.S. & Iranian strategies in IraqU.S. & Iranian strategies in Iraq

Military strategy: U.S. invaded Iraq, lost 1000s of soldiers,stuck in unpopular quagmire, saw its influence (and its favored exile candidates) rejected by Iraqis.

Political strategy: Iran watched its 2nd-greatest enemy eliminate its 1st enemy, advised its Iraqi allies to play along so their candidates could run in elections, then saw the Shi'ite parties come to power--all without firing a shot.

Iraqi Shi’ites not wanting to emulate Iran’sIraqi Shi’ites not wanting to emulate Iran’stheocratic rule, turn youth against religiontheocratic rule, turn youth against religion

Ahmadinejad victory, 2005Ahmadinejad victory, 2005

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was populist mayor of TehranMahmoud Ahmadinejad was populist mayor of Tehran

Built alliance of poor with religious conservativesBuilt alliance of poor with religious conservatives

Bush placing Iran in “Axis of Evil”Bush placing Iran in “Axis of Evil”strengthened conservatives in Iran strengthened conservatives in Iran

The regimes of most “demonized” leaders have stayed in power longer than any others. They can blame U.S.for internal economic problems & dissent.

““Search for Enemies”Search for Enemies”EEx-CIA official John Stockwell analysis:

U.S. government creates Third World enemiesto distract attention from domestic problems

Castro (Cuba)

Ho (N. Vietnam)

Ayatollahs (Iran)

Qaddafi (Libya)

Noriega (Panama)

Saddam (Iraq)Kims (N. Korea)

2000s: Chávez or

Ahmadinejad?

Nuclear programNuclear programIsrael has had nuclear Israel has had nuclear weapons since 1970s;weapons since 1970s;Pakistan since 1998 Pakistan since 1998

All Iranian presidents say nuclear All Iranian presidents say nuclear technology only for energytechnology only for energy

Ayatollah Ali Khameini issued Ayatollah Ali Khameini issued fatwafatwa vs. nuclear weapons, 2005 vs. nuclear weapons, 2005

U.S., Israel, EU do not believe Iran;U.S., Israel, EU do not believe Iran;IAEA critical of Iranian programIAEA critical of Iranian program





Uranium EnrichmentUranium Enrichment

Aug. 2005: Iran rejects EU proposal to provide enriched Aug. 2005: Iran rejects EU proposal to provide enriched uranium fuel for reactorsuranium fuel for reactors

March 2006: IAEA “has not seen indications of March 2006: IAEA “has not seen indications of diversion of nuclear material to nuclear weapons.”diversion of nuclear material to nuclear weapons.” April 2006: Iran successfully enriches April 2006: Iran successfully enriches uranium to 3.5% uranium to 3.5% (energy-grade)(energy-grade)

(3.5% for energy; (3.5% for energy; 90%+ for weapons-grade)90%+ for weapons-grade)





Nov. 2004: Iran voluntarily Nov. 2004: Iran voluntarily suspends enrichmentsuspends enrichment



Bush could bomb underground Iranian nuclear facilitiesBush could bomb underground Iranian nuclear facilities

Or Israel may strike, like it bombed Iraq nuclear plant, 1981Or Israel may strike, like it bombed Iraq nuclear plant, 1981

Possible attack on nuclear programPossible attack on nuclear program

Ideological preparation Ideological preparation Threat of “Iranian nuke” deeply embedded in HollywoodThreat of “Iranian nuke” deeply embedded in Hollywood

Justifying use of U.S. nukes to counter Iranian nuke?Justifying use of U.S. nukes to counter Iranian nuke?

Seymour Hersh exposing White House discussionSeymour Hersh exposing White House discussionof use of nuclear “bunker busters” of use of nuclear “bunker busters” vsvs. Iran. Iran





Staging grounds for invasion?Staging grounds for invasion?Iraqi Shi’a leaders would not allow military assault on Iran.

But U.S. can launch strikes from aircraft carriers,or Kuwait, Afghanistan, Turkey, Azerbaijan.

Ex-weapons inspector Scott Ritter: U.S. building up capabilities in Azerbaijan (Iran's NW border),sponsoring PMOI rebel bombings.

Pentagon does not think strikesalone will destroy Iran’s facilities, opposes nuclear option



Difficulties in invading IranDifficulties in invading Iran“Invading Iran would likely make the bloody quagmire in Iraq look like a picnic. Iran has nearly four times the territory and three times the population of Iraq. Also, Iran's terrain is much more mountainous than Iraq's and even more ideal for guerrilla warfare.” --Ivan Eland

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tensionstensions

Azeri protests,May 2006

Arab protests,April, Nov. 2005

Kurdish rebelattacks, 2006-07

Baluchi Sunni rebelattacks, 2006-07

Stimulating ethnic revolt?Stimulating ethnic revolt?

U.S. Marine intelligence teams hooking up with ethnic rebel groups in Iran in Iran ((Financial TimesFinancial Times 2/26/06) 2/26/06)

American Enterprise Institute hosts conference, 2005American Enterprise Institute hosts conference, 2005

Timing of Western interest in ethnic grievances Timing of Western interest in ethnic grievances coincides with larger desire to pressure & isolate Iran. coincides with larger desire to pressure & isolate Iran.

U.S. & U.K. have a long history of championing the U.S. & U.K. have a long history of championing the rights of an ethnic minority against an “enemy,” then rights of an ethnic minority against an “enemy,” then abandoning the minority when it is no longer useful.abandoning the minority when it is no longer useful.




U.S. combat units are "on the ground" in Iran, marking targets for any future air attack, "working with minority groups in Iran, including the Azeris, in the north, the Baluchis, in the southeast, and the Kurds, in the northeast. The troops are studying the terrain, and giving away walking-around money to ethnic tribes, and recruiting scouts from local tribes and shepherds,' the consultant said. One goal is to get eyes on the ground' ... The broader aim, the consultant said, is to ‘encourage ethnic tensions' and undermine the regime.”

"[W]e have been deeply involved with Azeris and Baluchis and Iranian Kurds in terror activities inside the country .”

--Seymour Hersh, The New Yorker (1/17/05)




Bush has signed Finding allocating $400 million for CIA and Special Ops destabilization of Iran, including

• Nuclear interlligence and currency destabilization

• Kidnapping Revolutionary Guards for interrogation in Iraq

• Killing “high value targets”

• Aid to Ahwazi separatists, Mujahedin e-Khalq (MEK),

Jundallah (Baluchi Sunni fundamantalists based in Pakistan),

Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan (PJAK) in Iraq

--Seymour Hersh, The New Yorker (7/7/08)



Stimulating ethnic revolt?Stimulating ethnic revolt? “CIA officials are understood to be helping opposition militias among the numerous ethnic minority groups clustered in Iran's border regions.The operations are controversial because they involve dealing with movements that resort to terrorist methods in pursuit of their grievances against the Iranian regime. In the past year there has been a wave of unrest in ethnic minority border areas of Iran, with bombing and assassination campaigns against soldiers and government officials.Such incidents have been carried out by the Kurds in the west, the Azeris in the north-west, the Ahwazi Arabs in the south-west, and the Baluchis in the south-east. ….Funding for their separatist causes comes directly from the CIA's classified budget but is now ‘no great secret,’ according to one former high-ranking CIA official in Washington.”

--Sunday Telegraph (London, 2/25/07)

Risks of stimulating Risks of stimulating ethnic revoltsethnic revolts

Azeri revolt could draw in Azerbaijan, Turkey

Kurdish revolt could inspire separatists in Iraq & Turkey.

But an Arab revolt could put Iran’smain oil province of Khuzestan under Western control.

The prospects of a limited intervention may loom larger, simply because Bush thinks it can be a “MissionAccomplished” with less than an all-out conquest of Iran.

Ralph PetersRalph Peters

Khuzestani (“Ahwazi”) grievancesKhuzestani (“Ahwazi”) grievancesDevastated in Iran-Iraq War; Arab cities still shatteredDevastated in Iran-Iraq War; Arab cities still shattered

Poverty, unemployment-- few benefits from local oilPoverty, unemployment-- few benefits from local oil

““Persianization” in place names; allegedly in schoolsPersianization” in place names; allegedly in schools

Coerced removals of farmers Coerced removals of farmers for development project for development project along strategic borderalong strategic border(Arvand Free Zone)(Arvand Free Zone)

British-Ahwazi Friendship SocietyBritish-Ahwazi Friendship Societyrally in Londonrally in London



Khuzestani (“Ahwazi”) secession?Khuzestani (“Ahwazi”) secession?

A few groups favor secession of “Al Ahwaz,”A few groups favor secession of “Al Ahwaz,”(including Khuzestan & eastern Gulf coast)(including Khuzestan & eastern Gulf coast)

Most Arab exile groups instead favor ethnic autonomy Most Arab exile groups instead favor ethnic autonomy of the Arab province within a new federal stateof the Arab province within a new federal state



Khuzestan:Khuzestan:Iran’s Achilles HeelIran’s Achilles Heel

SW province has oil fields, a shared Arab Shi’a identity with Iraq, and flat plains bordering Iraq(cities of Ahvaz, Abadan, Khorramshahr, etc.)

“The first step taken by an invading force would be to occupy Iran's oil-rich Khuzestan Province, securing the sensitive Straits of Hormuz and cutting off the Iranian military's oil supply, forcingit to depend on its limited stocks.”

-- -- Beirut Daily Star

The “Khuzestan Gambit”The “Khuzestan Gambit”Khuzestan “is the one large piece of flat Iranian terrain to the west of the Zagros Mountains. American heavy forces could swiftly occupy Khuzestan, and in doing so seize control of most of Iran's oil resources, and non-trivial portions of the country's water supply and electrical generating capacity.” --GlobalSecurity.org

Are the firstmoves alreadybeing made?

Repeat of pastBritish colonialand Saddamstrategies.

Basra IncidentBasra IncidentIn Sept. 2005, British troops clashed with Iraqi In Sept. 2005, British troops clashed with Iraqi police and Shi'ite militia in Basra (Iraq), near the police and Shi'ite militia in Basra (Iraq), near the border with Khuzestan. The police had arrested border with Khuzestan. The police had arrested two British undercover commandos who two British undercover commandos who possessed suspicious bomb-making materials. possessed suspicious bomb-making materials.

Basra IncidentBasra IncidentBritish troops launched an armored raid on the jail to free British troops launched an armored raid on the jail to free their agents (fighting Iraqi police they had earlier trained). their agents (fighting Iraqi police they had earlier trained).

Iraqis thought it strange that British agents would be caught Iraqis thought it strange that British agents would be caught with insurgent-style bombs in Iraq.with insurgent-style bombs in Iraq.

Khuzestan BombingsKhuzestan Bombings

Yet at the same time, Yet at the same time, bombs began going off bombs began going off across the Iranian border across the Iranian border in Khuzestan. in Khuzestan.

A series of June 2005 car A series of June 2005 car bombings in Ahvaz bombings in Ahvaz (75 miles from Basra) (75 miles from Basra) killed 6 people. killed 6 people.

Attacks in Sept.-Oct. 2005 hurt Attacks in Sept.-Oct. 2005 hurt dozens, halted oil transfers.dozens, halted oil transfers.

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In August 2005, Iran arrested a In August 2005, Iran arrested a group of Arab separatists and group of Arab separatists and accused them of links to Britishaccused them of links to Britishintelligence in Basra, Iraq,intelligence in Basra, Iraq,tying the bombings to thetying the bombings to thecommando incident. Four Arabscommando incident. Four Arabsexecuted in Feb. 2007executed in Feb. 2007

Khuzestan BombingsKhuzestan Bombings

Anglo-Iranian Anglo-Iranian tensiontension

Iranian officials Iranian officials “point to Western collusion in the sudden “point to Western collusion in the sudden spike this year in ethnic unrest in the strategic, oil-spike this year in ethnic unrest in the strategic, oil-producing province of Khuzestan and describe it as proof of producing province of Khuzestan and describe it as proof of a shadowy war that is receiving far less coverage in the a shadowy war that is receiving far less coverage in the international press than events in Iraq. Since the beginning international press than events in Iraq. Since the beginning of 2005, riots and a bombing campaign timed to coincide of 2005, riots and a bombing campaign timed to coincide with the June presidential elections rocked Khuzestan's with the June presidential elections rocked Khuzestan's major citiesmajor cities.”.”

-- Daily Star of Beirut (10/17/05)-- Daily Star of Beirut (10/17/05)

Tony Blair and his Foreign SecretaryTony Blair and his Foreign SecretaryJack Straw denied the charges, and Jack Straw denied the charges, and accuse Iran of sending agents to stir accuse Iran of sending agents to stir up trouble in Basra and other Iraqiup trouble in Basra and other Iraqicities, by supporting Shi'ite militias cities, by supporting Shi'ite militias attacking “Coalition” troops. attacking “Coalition” troops.

Exiles accuse Iran’s Revolutionary Exiles accuse Iran’s Revolutionary Guards of training to quell Arab protests, Guards of training to quell Arab protests, and using Lebanese Hezbollah (from and using Lebanese Hezbollah (from local training camps) against protesters.local training camps) against protesters.(U.S. accuses Hezbollah of training(U.S. accuses Hezbollah of trainingIraqi Shi’as in Khuzestan, May 2008).Iraqi Shi’as in Khuzestan, May 2008).

Anglo-Iranian tensionAnglo-Iranian tension

Anglo-Iranian tensionAnglo-Iranian tension

In March 2005, Straw had met with In March 2005, Straw had met with London-based Iranian Arab exilesLondon-based Iranian Arab exiles(Khuzestan Front leader visited (Khuzestan Front leader visited White House in April 2005.)White House in April 2005.)

U.K. sailors captured in KhuzestanU.K. sailors captured in Khuzestanwaters, released, March 2007.waters, released, March 2007.

Ahwazi separatists assassinateAhwazi separatists assassinateRevolutionary Guard colonel, 2008Revolutionary Guard colonel, 2008

Arab protests in KhuzestanArab protests in KhuzestanIn April 2005, a letter allegedly from the Iranian Vice-In April 2005, a letter allegedly from the Iranian Vice-President was read on Al-Ahwaz television (broadcast from President was read on Al-Ahwaz television (broadcast from U.S. via satellite) supposedly advocating forced Arab U.S. via satellite) supposedly advocating forced Arab removal from Khuzestan & importation of Persian settlers.removal from Khuzestan & importation of Persian settlers.

Though Tehran denounced Though Tehran denounced the letter as a forgery, Arab the letter as a forgery, Arab youths took the streets of youths took the streets of Ahvaz and clashed with police, Ahvaz and clashed with police, with 5 killed, 400 arrested. with 5 killed, 400 arrested. November Eid protests left November Eid protests left 2 Arabs dead & 200 arrested.2 Arabs dead & 200 arrested.



First front in a War on Iran?First front in a War on Iran?1. Western propaganda that Iran plans “ethnic cleansing”of Arabs (like in Kosovo or Darfur), to gain U.S. public support for assistance to rebels or military action.



First front in a War on Iran?First front in a War on Iran?2. U.S. & British forces protect an Arab uprising from, crackdown, and turn Khuzestan into a de facto autonomous protectorate of “Arabistan” or “Ahwaz” (Kosovo precedent)

3. West takes control of Iran’s oil-dependent economy, by holding Khuzestan as an economic “hostage,” and dictates terms to Tehran government.

4. Pentagon fantasizes that ruling clerics would be undermined and Iranian reformers would overthrow them.

New tensionsNew tensionsSkirmishes between U.S. Navy and Iranian speedboats in PersianGulf, Jan. 2008

Ahwazi exiles denounce Iranian nuclear power plant construction at Darkhovin,Feb. 2008



Israeli strike?Israeli strike?Israel bombs Syrian plant as warning, Sept. 2007 Air war games over Mediterranean and Iraq,with U.S. approval, Summer 2008

Bush gives “amber light” for Israeli strikeLondon Times / Jerusalem Post (7/13/08)

Kadima split; Olmert weakMofaz vs. Livni conflict over Iran strike

Iran not reprocessing uranium for weapons;air strikes would “turn Middle East into aball of fire” (Mohammad El Baradei, IAEA)

U.S. Road to WarU.S. Road to WarNational Intelligence Estimate (NIE) asserts Iran ended A-bomb program in 2003; but Bush and Cheney dispute(“knowledge” is enough), Dec. 2007

Admiral Fallon resigns, Sec. Gates criticisms dismissed

HR 362 / SR 580 (Dodd/Shelby) calls for economic sanctions on Iran, divestment of oil equipment companies(would lead to oil deindustrization)

Possible naval blockade of Strait of Hormuz ??? Sanctions are popular and war unpopular,but sanctions can lead to an Act of War

What can backfireWhat can backfire

Destroying any chance of reform in Iran, and rallying even Destroying any chance of reform in Iran, and rallying even “moderate” Iranians around their government. “moderate” Iranians around their government.

Arab secession sets into motion the “Balkanization” of Iran, Arab secession sets into motion the “Balkanization” of Iran, which would inevitably tear apart neighboring countries.which would inevitably tear apart neighboring countries. Military & Revolutionary Guards could counterattack, block Military & Revolutionary Guards could counterattack, block oil lanes, or melt into an Iraq-style insurgency. oil lanes, or melt into an Iraq-style insurgency.

Self-fulfilling prophecy:Self-fulfilling prophecy: Iran War could stimulate more Iran War could stimulate more reactive terrorism and nuclear weapons programs.reactive terrorism and nuclear weapons programs.

Dr. Zoltán GrossmanMember of the Faculty(Geography & Native American Studies)The Evergreen State CollegeLab 1, 2700 Evergreen Pkwy. NWOlympia, WA 98505 USA

Tel.: (360) 867-6153E-mail: [email protected]: http://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz

This presentation available athttp://academic.evergreen.edu/g/grossmaz/IranWar.ppt

Article in Z magazine (January 2006) at http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=67&ItemID=9073

mailto:[email protected]



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