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Water in the Changing North
• Sean Carey (Carleton University)
With contributions from• Laura Chasmer (Wilfrid Laurier University)Laura Chasmer (Wilfrid Laurier University)• Laura Comeau (U of Sask)Laura Comeau (U of Sask)• Mike DemuthMike Demuth (Natural Resources Canada)• Rick Janowicz Rick Janowicz (Yukon Environment)• Alain Pietroniro Alain Pietroniro (Environment Canada, U of Sask),• John Pomeroy (U of Sask)• Bill Quinton Bill Quinton (Wilfrid Laurier University)• Hok Woo (McMaster U)Hok Woo (McMaster U)
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Change is the norm, not the exception
Change has been directly observed
Nowhere is this more notable than “The North”
From Sturm et al. 2001
What is Change?
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Observed 20th Century Temperature Changes
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Regional climate change predictions2080-2089 relative to 1980-1999
IPCC 2007Warmer and Wetter generally; Drier regionally !
Annual Winter - DJF Summer - JJA
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From Pisaric MJF, Carey SK, Kokelj S, Youngblut D, 2007, Geophysical Research Letters
Across northwest NA, certain tree species no longer respond to climate signals as in the past half-millennia
Evidence that ecological thresholds have been reached
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Ecosystem Change
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But what else is changing in the north?
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Typical metal Mine: 500-800ha
5km
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The Global Water (hydrological) Cycle
As found on Wikipedia
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Cold Regions Hydrological Cycle
InterflowInterflow
RunoffRunoff
Snowfall
Sublimation
Blowing SnowEvaporation Evaporation
Rainfall
Snowmelt
Infiltration to Frozen Ground
Groundwater FlowGroundwater Flow
Precipitation
Ice
Lakes
Slide courtesy J. Pomeroy
Permafrost
Energy and Water are closely linked in cold regions
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How will a changing climate and human activity affect the northern water cycle?
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IP3 ...is devoted to understanding water supply and weather systems in cold Regions at high altitudes and high latitudes (Rockies and western Arctic)
• ...will contribute to better predictionof regional and local weather, climate,and water resources in cold regions, including ungauged basin streamflow, changes in snow and water supplies, and calculation of freshwater inputs to the Arctic Ocean
• ...is composed over about 40 investigators and collaborators from Canada, USA, UK, Germany
•…runs from 2006-2010
•…..We are here in Whitehorse! There is a lot of experts here who know more than I.
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Permafrost in Canada
What makes northern regions so sensitive?
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Permafrost is Declining
…. And projected to continue declining
IPCC 4th Assessment
Courtesy L. Hinzman
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Permafrost Hydrology
• Permafrost acts as an aquitard, restricting the vertical movement of of water
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From Smith et al. 2005
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Northern Wetlands
a) Peat Plateaus
b) Channel Fens
c) Flat Bogs
Major Landscape Types:
N e x t L a k e
G o o s e L a k e
F l o w d i r e c t i o n
0 5 km
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Fort Simpson NWT - Permafrost Decrease 30% in 53 Years
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1897 1907 1917 1927 1937 1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997
Years
degrees C
1947 2000
Courtesy Bill Quinton
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Shaded lidar DEM with 2008 peat plateaus (brown) and disconnected sinks (blue). Red areas show retreat of peat plateaus from 2000 to 2008.
2001
2004
2006
2008
40 m
38 m
33 m
26 m
2001
2004
2006
2008
Images courtesy L. Chasmer and B. Quinton
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saturated, frozen saturated, thawed unsaturated, thawed
1
3
2
Images courtesy B. Quinton
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From Petrone et al. 2007, JGR-B
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From Warvoold et al. 2007
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Streamflow chemistry and water quality will also be impacted as the movement of water in the subsurface changes
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Permafrost
Permafrost Dominated Catchments Permafrost-free Catchments
Low SolutesHigh DOC
High SolutesLow DOC
Stream
NorthSouth
Organic Soils
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GB_01
GB_02
GB_03
GB_04
GB_03 1.5 km2
Tundra vegetationGB_04 2.1 km2
Stony soils, some lichen
GB_02 2.9 km2
Birch dominatedGB_01 1.1 km2
Willow dominated
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Changing climate also affects the timing and magnitude of floods, breakup and river freezing
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Yukon River Breakup at Dawson City
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Date of Spring Peak Streamflow in Northern Canada
Hay River at Hay RiverDate of Annual Freshet Peak
90
120
150
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Julia
n D
ay
May
April
Mackenzie River at Fort SimpsonDate of Annual Peak Discharge
120
150
180
210
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Julia
n D
ay
May
June
July
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Snow-covered Period is Decliningin many places
Average change (days/yr) in snow cover duration in the second half (Feb.-Jul.) of the snow year over the period 1972-2000.
Derived from the NOAA weekly satellite snow cover dataset
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IPCC 4th Assessment
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We have a poor scientific capacity to predict flow (and floods!) in small and medium sized northern streams
River crossings of roads (and pipelines) routinely fail because we have insufficient understanding of hydrology, runoff generation processes and permafrost or frozen ground in our designs.
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Glaciers and their influence on streamflow
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Global Distribution of Glacial Area (excluding ice-caps)
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Worldwide, there is a broad trend towards glacial decline
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Recent Glacier Diminution
Demuth et al. 2008 Terra Glacialis
Storage EffectModerate Flows
HydropowerGroundwater recharge
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What influence do declining glaciers have on streamflow?
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Slide courtesy M. Demuth
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High Elevation Snow Accumulation
Upper Bow Valley, 1 April
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
SW
E m
m
Snow survey @ 1580 mUpper Bow Valley
Regime shift
Snow drought
Slide courtesy M. Demuth
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Glacier Wastage and Melt
Wastage:
Annual volume of glacier ice melt that exceeds the annual volume of snow accumulation into the glacier system, causing an annual net loss of glacier volume
Melt:
Annual volume of glacier ice melt that is equal to, or less than, the annual volume of snow that does not melt from the glacier and instead accumulates into the glacier system
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Percent of Basin GlacierizedM
ayJu
neJu
lyA
ugus
t
Timing of Peak Runoff
Percent of Basin Glacierized
Coe
ffici
ent o
f Var
iabi
lity
Variability of Runoff
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Results: Wastage (1975-1998)Wastage contribution to streamflow: Ranges from 1 – 22% July-Sept, 1 – 8% annually Percentage basin glacier cover ranges from 0.02% - 58%
• Snowmelt is the most significant contributor
• Annual glacier contribution is relatively small
• Seasonal contribution is more significant:
Slide courtesy L. Comeau
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Declining August flows in BC
Stahl and Moore 2006 Water Resources Research
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• Some regions are already experiencing reduced streamflows predicted by the IPCC – increased flow phase already past:
Rocky Mountain eastern slopesDemuth and Pietroniro 2003 CCAF-PARCDemuth et al. 2008 Terra Glacialis
South-central British ColumbiaMoore and Demuth 2001 Hydrological ProcessesStahl and Moore 2006 Water Resources Research
• Glacier cover contraction over the last Century has been fuelled by regional warming and reduced nourishment – there is simply much less glacier cover, resulting in reduced contribution when other sources may be absent or are know to be in decline
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Ecosystem change has a profound influence on water cycling
Sturm et al. 2001
Hinzman et al. 2005
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Snow Interception
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
North South East West
Sno
w W
ater
Equ
ival
ent m
m
Forest
Clearing
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Effect of Forest Removal on Snow Accumulation
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0 1 2 3 4 5Leaf Area Index
Sn
ow
in
Fo
rest
/ S
no
w i
n C
lear
ing
Measured
Parametric Model
Sparsely Wooded
Medium Density, Young
Dense Mature Canopy
Courtesy J. Pomeroy
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Snowmelt Runoff Decreases with Increasing Forest Cover - infiltration to frozen soils –
Courtesy J. Pomeroy
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Forest Density Impacts Snowmelt Energy
Clearing Mature Forest
Net radiation = solar + thermal radiationCourtesy Ellis & Pomeroy
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Development
There are strong practical implications for improved understanding of hydrology based on rapid expansion of development in the west and north.
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IP3 ...is devoted to understanding water supply and weather systems in cold Regions at high altitudes and high latitudes (Rockies and western Arctic)
• ...will contribute to better predictionof regional and local weather, climate,and water resources in cold regions, including ungauged basin streamflow, changes in snow and water supplies, and calculation of freshwater inputs to the Arctic Ocean
• ...is composed over about 40 investigators and collaborators from Canada, USA, UK, Germany
•…runs from 2006-2010
•…..We are here in Whitehorse! There is a lot of experts here who know more than I.
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IP3 Research BasinsIP3 Research Basins
Marmot Creek, AB
subalpine forest
Lake O'Hara, BC
wet alpine
Peyto Glacier, AB
glacierized alpine
Baker Creek, NTsubarctic shield
lakes
Wolf Creek, YTsubarctic tundra
cordillera
Trail Valley Creek, NT
arctic tundra
Havikpak Creek, NT
taiga woodland
Reynolds Creek, Idahomountain rangeland
Polar Bear Pass, NU
arctic wetlands
Scotty Creek, NTpermafrost wetlands
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Physically Based Hydrological Modelling can answer water management questions
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Environment Canada Environmental Prediction Framework
Surface scheme(EC version of Watflood CLASS or ISBA)and routing model
“On-line”mode
“Off-line”mode
“On-line”mode
“Off-line”mode
Surfaceobservations
Upper airobservations
CaLDAS:Canadianland data
assimilation
CaPA:Canadian
precipitationanalysis
MESHModélisation environnementale
communautaire (MEC)de la surface et de l’hydrologie
GEM atmosphericmodel
4DVardata assimilation
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Thank You - Merci