Peter Cochrane

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

ca-global.org

Why isn’t

my laptop

Intelligent?

cochrane.org.uk

Friday, 16 March 12

It has an abundance of: - processing power

- memory

- RAM

- network access

- WWW information

Friday, 16 March 12

But it acts dumb and doesn’t:

- learn my habits

- anticipate my needs

- correct my errors

- learn from mistakes

- monitor me and my life

Friday, 16 March 12

But why even as the question ?

Friday, 16 March 12

We cannot work any faster or any harder - we have reached the end of the line ?

Friday, 16 March 12

We a r e n o w t h e ultimate limiter and slow down mechanism in a networked world we have created ?

Friday, 16 March 12

38,700,000

14,600,000

Not all that helpful !

Friday, 16 March 12

Muscle amplifier

Brain amplifier

Intellect amplifier

Friday, 16 March 12

We face a tide complexity, non-linearity & chaos... and biologically we are not going to get any smarter...

Friday, 16 March 12

We have no general math or theoretical framework to fall back on...

...that can cope with the problems we face

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And we live at a time of greater achievement and creativity than any other...

...at no time in the past has humanity discovered, understood or created so much...

Friday, 16 March 12

Just a

selection

of things

small

we really

don’t understand

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In order to move on w e n e e d a n e w approach...

...help from new intelligences that see the world from a different perspective...

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Old systems & methods are extremely unlikely to be able to help...or cope with the demands and changes to come...

Friday, 16 March 12

During the reformation ever yth ing became stove-piped... initially t h i s b rough t huge benefit, but it is now a major inhibitor...

...there is only science...

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So what is the state of p lay with Ar t ific ia l Intelligence today...

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And are machines re a l l y c ap ab l e o f creativity...

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IBM - Deep Blue 1972

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NASA Planetary Walker - 2002

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M a c h i n e s that design m a c h i n e s today...

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IBM - Watson 2010

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Life and death decisions are a fact of life...

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But machines are now assuming new levels of responsibility in medicine...

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To say the least this p o s e s s o m e v e r y serious issues...

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So what do we know of Intelligence ?

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Stanley Kubrick &

Arthur C Clarke 1968

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Dave has a bit of a problem with HAL...- “Open the pod bay doors HAL”- “Sorry Dave, I can’t do that”

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Machines do make mistakes, but so do we...and very often they go hand in hand, embedded in the root of software...

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The generic question we keep asking:

Where is HAL 9000 ?

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Where is he ?

1968

2000

2011Friday, 16 March 12

Three big questions

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Three big questions

Will Hal be here in 2025 ?

Friday, 16 March 12

Three big questions

Will Hal be here in 2025 ?

Will I be here in 2025 ?

Friday, 16 March 12

Three big questions

Will Hal be here in 2025 ?

Will I be here in 2025 ?

Will my computer be proud of me before I die ?

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AI plays better games than us !

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AI outsmarts us on knowledge

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AI control a lot of our industrial process to feed, clothe, keep us warm and transport us...

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AI is now bringing a new level of creativity and problem solving to the party...

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BUT aren’t we just talking machines running algorithms ?

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The big problem is that we cannot describe, quantify or measure intelligence?

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>> 150 published definitions ??

AND - IQ Tests are worthless ??

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1960 70 80 90 2000 10

Com

putin

g Po

wer

MIP/s

Inte

llige

nce

Leve

l

PC

Internet SuperComputer

Friday, 16 March 12

The singularity priesthood 2035 !

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I got a call from a defence company

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compare

systems ?

How do we

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P.M Friday, 16 March 12

No P or M !

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No P or M !

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Scanning long term comatose patients of 10 years...considered to be totally vegetative !

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Ask them to think a b o u t p l a y i n g tennis...

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For >60% the brain activity is the same as for you and I...

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They are entombed in meat space...

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Sensors S = 0 no intelligence

Actuators A = 0 no intelligence

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Axiom

Intelligence is Entropic

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compare

systems ?A 30 second tutorial !

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ActuatorA

So starting with a simple model of this form...

ProcessorP1

SystemEnvirons

MemoryM

ProcessorP2

SensorsS

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And building the complexity a layer at a time...

SystemEnvirons

MemoryShortTerm

Processor1

Actuator

Sensors

MemoryLongTerm

Processor2

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Ic ~ k log2[1 + K.A.S ( 1 + P.M )]

S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = Memory

Followed by mathematical juggling and normalisation, liberties, crimes, & of course engineering licence...

Friday, 16 March 12

So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?

Friday, 16 March 12

So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?

How about: - sensors? - adaptability?

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But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!

Friday, 16 March 12

But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!

And our machines will see, hear, smell….…detect and communicate in a way and

at a rate we cannot!

Friday, 16 March 12

1960 70 80 90 2000 10

Com

putin

g Po

wer

MIP/sIntelligence

Level

PC

Estimates of Artificial Intelligence

Internet

Friday, 16 March 12

1960 70 80 90 2000 10

Com

putin

g Po

wer

MIP/sIntelligence

Level

PC

Estimates of Artificial Intelligence

Internet

Friday, 16 March 12

The good news !

Friday, 16 March 12

Mobile Sensors and Actuators by the Bn !

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G o o g l e , I B M a re mov i n g i n to t h i s space!

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And it will arrive on our phones, tablets, pads, laptops via The Cloud...

Friday, 16 March 12

And the day can’t come quick enough!

Thank You

ca-global.orgcochrane.org.uk

COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s

Friday, 16 March 12