Download - Wildfire Management Tool WWEC - 20120919
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Bruce Schubert, Emxsys
WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT TOOLWhat It Can Do & How to Make It Do More
NASA World Wind Europa Challenge
September 19-22, 2012, Como Italy
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Bruce Schubert• Software Architect, Designer, Developer
• Emxsys Open Source Developer• Emergency Management Geomatics• Wildfire Management Tool
• AeroComputers Mission Management System• Software Architect and Developer
• UltiChart Mission Management System for Police and Fire Helicopters
• Cartographer• Nationwide Street Level Maps
• Georeferenced Video Synchronized with Maps• Fire Mapping with Aircraft and EO/IR Sensors
• Ventura County Fire Department• Software Development Manager• ICS
• Situation Unit Leader• Field Observer
• Volunteer • Firefighter/Battalion Chief• Search, Rescue and First Aid• CPR Instructor• Sound Technician (FOH and Recording)
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Wildfire Management Tool
The Art of the Campbell Prediction
System
The Science of BEHAVE
http://emxsys.com
POTENTIAL FIRE BEHAVIORAND THRESHOLDS OF CONTROL
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Doug Campbell’s Wildland Fire Prediction and Communication System (CPS)
Doug Campbell
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Rothermel’s Fire Spread Model
Richard C. Rothermel
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WMT: A Simplified Display of Complex Data
Inputs Location Outputs
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Vision Statement
• For wildland firefighters
• Who need tactical decision support tools
• The Wildfire Management Tool (WMT)
• Is a decision support system
• That predicts the potential fire behavior
• Unlike BehavePlus and FARSITE
• This product uses on-scene fire behavior observations
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Fire Behavior 101Fire behavior is the manner in which a fire reacts to the influences of:
• Fuel• Weather• Topography
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Basic Fire Behavior NomenclatureHEAD
RIGHTFLANK
LEFTFLANK
REAR or HEAL
Directio
n of Spread
Origin
Spot fire
Rate of Spread
Flame Length
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Slope and Aspect Derived from Terrain
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Fuel Model Data from Web Map Servers
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Determine Fire Behavior at Any LocationDirection of Maximum Spread and Flame Length
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Show Fire Behavior in Familiar Terms
Haul Chart
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Firefighters Can Predict Fire Behavior
Fire Behavior is greater when force vectors are aligned.
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Fire Behavior
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Campbell Prediction System
Learn from the Past—Predict the FutureWhat Does the Fire Tell You?
• Alignment of Forces Concept• In-alignment tracks
• Trigger Points• Geographic/Temporal
• Fuel Flammability Curves• Replications
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Case Study: South Canyon
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Case Study: Dillon
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How to Make It Do More
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The Problem With Models1. The model is inaccurate.
2. The model is too complex.
Solving one problem exacerbates the other.
Drawing Hands, M.C Escher
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Develop A Model Based on Ground Truths
Learn from the Past—Predict the Future• Build a Fire Behavior Observation Database
• Local• Regional• International
• Data collected by Field Observers via Georeferenced Photos• Photos must display horizontal and vertical references• Observations codified by Fire Behavior Analysts• Photo queries viewed by Incident Commanders
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Add a Wind Field Model• Incorporate terrain effects into the surface winds• Incorporate a diurnal slope flow model• Need for modeling lee winds
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Determine Trigger Points
A trigger point is a place on the terrain where a change in the alignment of forces will change the fire behavior, creating either an opportunity for suppression or a danger to firefighters. • Analyze fire behavior predictions over the spatial and
temporal domains to determine when and where fire behavior may change.
• Render trigger points on the terrain viewer and on a timeline.
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Show Thresholds of Control• Drape a Threshold Of Control color overlay on the terrain.
1. LOW 0-1’ Fire will burn and will spread however it presents very little resistance to control and direct attack with firefighters is possible
2. MODERATE 1-3’ Fire spreads rapidly presenting moderate resistance to control but can be countered with direct attack by firefighters
3. ACTIVE 3-7’ Fire spreads very rapidly presenting substantial resistance to control. Direct attack with firefighters must be supplemented with equipment and/or air support.
4. VERY ACTIVE 7-15’ Fire spreads very rapidly presenting extreme resistance to control. Indirect attack may be effective. Safety of firefighters in the area becomes a concern.
5. EXTREME >15’ Fire spreads very rapidly presenting extreme resistance to control. Any form of attack will probably not be effective. Safety of firefighters in the area is of critical concern.
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Simulate Short Term Fire Behavior• Create a 3D Fire Simulation display
• Not a fire progression model• Render Head, Flanking and Backing fire behavior
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Software Architecture
NetBeans Platform WorldWind SDKLibs: VisAD, JFreeChart
WorldWind NetBeans ModuleEmxsys APIs
CPS Plugin
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Software Design Fundementals
CHEAP
GREAT
FAST
FREE
IMPOSSIBLEUTOPIA
JUST INTIME TO BETOO LATE
CODE SMELLS
YOU GET WHAT YOU PAY FOR
LimitedUse
Write ItYourself
Pick Two:
World Wind
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Who Uses It?• United States Forest Service• CALFIRE• Catalonia GRAF