Download - Wind Energy: Status and Future
Wind Energy: Status and FutureTom Williams
NREL
FLC Mid-Continent Regional MeetingSeptember 2005
Topics
• NREL
• Market Drivers for Renewable Energy
• Wind Energy Markets Today
• R&D and Future Prospects for Wind
National Renewable Energy Laboratory Only national laboratory dedicated to
renewable energy and energy efficiency R&D Research spans fundamental science to
technology solutions Collaboration with industry and university
partners is a hallmark Research programs linked to market
opportunities
Major NREL Program Areas
Supply Side
Wind Energy
Solar Energy
Biomass/Biofuels Energy Systems
Geothermal Technology
Hydrogen Research
Electric Energy Systems and Storage
Demand Side
Transportation
Buildings Technology
Industry
Federal Energy Management
Cross Cutting Office of Science
Analytical Studies
International
Resource Assessment
National Wind Technology Center
Built in 1981 as the Small Wind TestCenter on 280 acres
Dedicated as the National WindTechnology Center in 1994
Today the NWTC is a world class state-of-the-art research facility on 305 acres testing advanced wind turbine technologies
Topics
• NRELNREL
• Market Drivers for Renewable EnergyMarket Drivers for Renewable Energy
• Wind Energy Markets TodayWind Energy Markets Today
• R&D and Future Prospects for WindR&D and Future Prospects for Wind
Atmospheric Concentration of CO2
Source: Adapted from W.M. Post, T.H. Peng, W.R. Emanuel, A.W. King, V.H. Dale, and D. DeAngelis. American Scientist, 1990. “The Global Carbon Cycle.”
Year
Atm
osp
her
ic C
O2
Co
nce
ntr
atio
n (
PP
MV
)
U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil
Saudi Arabia 26%Iraq 11%Kuwait 10%Iran 9%UAE 8%Venezuela 6%Russia 5%Mexico 3%Libya 3%China 3%Nigeria 2%U.S. 2%
U.S. 26%Japan 7%China 6%Germany 4%Russia 3%S. Korea 3%France 3%Italy 3%Mexico 3%Brazil 3%Canada 3%India 3%
Updated August 2002Source: International Energy Annual 1999 (EIA), Tables 1.2 and 8.1.
Have OilHave Oil Use OilUse Oil
The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highestconsuming nations combined.
The U.S. uses more than the next 5 highestconsuming nations combined.
World Population Growth, 1750-2100
Source: Population Reference Bureau
10
8
6
4
2
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Bill
ions
Developing Countries
Industrial Countries
The World Needs Clean, Low-Cost Energy
0.1
1
10
100
0.1 1 10 100 1000
Energy Consumption Per Capita (MMBTU/person)
GD
P P
er C
apit
a ($
000/
per
son
)
Poverty
Affluence
Ethiopia
United Kingdom
Mexico
Bangladesh
China
Poland
South Korea
United StatesFranceJapan
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 1998 Tables E1, B1, B2; Mike Grillot, 5/17/00Gross Domestic Product per capita is for 1997 in 1990 dollars. Energy Consumption per capita is 1997.
El Salvador Russia
Long-Term Drivers for Renewable Energy
• Environmental– Greenhouse gas emissions– Other environmental impacts (air quality, acid rain, land use, water
use)
• National Energy Security– Reduce dependency on imported oil (political and economic risk)
• Social and Political – Energy necessary to reduce gap between developed and developing
world– World political pressure
• Economic– Least-cost energy solution– Reduced price uncertainty– Grid optimization
Topics
• NREL
• Market Drivers for Renewable EnergyMarket Drivers for Renewable Energy
• Wind Energy Markets Today
• R&D and Future Prospects for Wind
U.S. Energy Consumption by source - 1850-1999
Source: 1850-1949, Energy Perspectives: A Presentation of Major Energy and Energy-Related Data, U.S. Department of the Interior, 1975; 1950-1996, Annual Energy Review 1996, Table 1.3. Note: Between 1950 and 1990, there was no reporting of non-utility use of renewables. 1997-1999, Annual Energy Review 1999, Table F1b.
Coal
Crude Oil
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Non-hydro Renewables
Wood
Growth of Wind Energy Capacity Worldwide
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
Rest of World
Actual Projected
Rest of World
North America North America
Europe Europe
Jan 2005 Cumulative MW =46,048
Rest of World = 5,147
North America = 7,241
Europe = 33,660
MW
In
stal
led
Sources: BTM Consult Aps, March 2003
Windpower Monthly, January 2005
*NREL Estimate for 2005
Sizes and Applications
Small (10 kW)• Homes (Grid connected)• Farms• Remote Applications
(e.g. battery changing, water pumping, telecom sites, icemaking)
Intermediate (10-500 kW)• Village Power• Hybrid Systems• Distributed Power
Large (500 kW – 6 MW)• Central Station Wind Farms
• Distributed Power• Offshore Wind Generation
Stations
United States Wind Power Capacity (MW)
6,770 MW as of 12/31/04
Alaska1
California2,096
Colorado229
Hawaii9
Iowa632
Kansas114
Massachusetts1
Michigan2
Minnesota615
Nebraska20
New Mexico267
New York48
North Dakota
66Oregon259
Pennsylvania129
Tennessee29
Texas1,293
Vermont6
Wisconsin53
Wyoming285
Washington244
South Dakota
44
West Virginia66
Arkansas0.1
Idaho0.2
Maine0.1
Montana2
New Hampshire0.1
Oklahoma176
Utah0.2
Illinois81
Ohio7
Topics
• NREL
• Market Drivers for Renewable Energy
• Wind Energy Markets Today
• R&D and Future Prospects for Wind
Reducing the Cost of Energy
DOE Goal for Utility Scale Wind Systems
• Develop wind turbines capable of 3 cents/kWh on land and 5 cents offshore in Class 4 (13 mph) wind sites by 2012:
• Making more wind sites available close to load centers
• Increases the area for wind development by a factor of 20+
• Developing advanced wind technology for opening the U.S. offshore regions for wind development
Trent Mesa, Texas
•Offshore GE 3.6 MW 104 meter rotor diameter
•Offshore design requirementsconsidered from the outset:
–Crane system for all components
–Simplified installation
–Helicopter platform
Offshore GE Wind Energy 3.6 MW Prototype
Boeing 747-400
Clipper LWST Prototype 2.5 MW with 93 m Rotor
Offshore Wind Potential for New England
Preliminary Data
Evolution To Deep Water Wind Turbines
Avian Interactions Research Data suggest the most significant avian
wind-turbine interaction problem in the U.S. is in the Altamont WRA.
There is no reason that avian issues should be a concern for future wind farm development; any potential problem should be identified and dealt with before micrositing occurs.
Two guidance documents have been adopted by the NWCC: (1) Permitting of Wind Energy Facilities, and (2) Metrics and Methods for Avian Studies. These two documents serve as guidance for siting and development of new wind farms in the U.S.
Facilities developed following these guidelines have not experienced significant avian impact issues.
NREL Avian Library Available at: www.nrel.gov/wind/avian_lit.html
Infrared Image of a Bat Flying Through a Wind Turbine Rotor Taken by Jason Horn, Boston University
Collaborative Wildlife Research
• National Wind Coordinating Committee• Bat & Wind Energy Collaborative
LWST Turbines:• 3¢/kWh at 13mph• Electricity Market
2012
Offshore LWST Turbine:• 5 cents/kWh• Shallow/Deep water• Electricity Market• Higher wind Sites
2012 and Beyond
Custom Turbines:• Electricity• H2 production• Desalinate water• Storage• Multi-Market
2030 and Beyond
A Future Vision for Wind Energy
2004
Bulk Power Generator
4-6¢ at 15mph
• Land Based
• Bulk Electricity
• Wind Farms
Potential 20% of Electricity Market
Land Based Electricity Path Transmission Barriers
Cost & Regulatory Barriers
Land or Sea Based:• Hydrogen• Clean Water
Cost & Infrastructure Barriers
Land Based LWSTLarge-Scale
2–5 MW
Offshore Turbines5 MW and Larger
Future
Offshore Electricity Path
Advanced Applications Path