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Climate Change
and
the
Climate
Change
and
the
HinduHindu ‐‐Kush Himalayas:Kush Himalayas:
David Molden David Molden
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
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A regional mountain knowledge and learningcentre devoted to sustainable mountain
www.icimod.or
.
210 million
HKH
1.3 billion
Regional Member Countries : Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan
people
downstream
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Climate Change in the HimalayaClimate Change in the Himalaya
Climate
CreatingCreatingChange
ery gery gDemandDemand
onon
WaterWater
BiodiversityBiodiversityPopulationDynamics
SystemSystem ForestForest
Cultural heritageCultural heritage……
Globalization
NaturalResources
UseIncrease adaptive capacity and resilienceIncrease adaptive capacity and resilience
of mountain communitiesof mountain communitiesand those dependent on mountain servicesand those dependent on mountain services
Land UseChange
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Hotspot for climate change: vital
- an area of extraordinarybeauty and a world heritage
Himalayan glaciers are
sources o res wa erreserves providingheadwaters for 10 major
the Tibetan Plateau andSouth Asia
–lifeline for almost onethird of humanity
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Climate Change Impacts
• Warmin : “ the rate of warmin in the re ion is more than
five times faster than warming globally," (Lau et al, NASA,2006);• ac er an snow me acce era e• Changing habitat for high-elevation plants and animals•• Changing availability of water for irrigation, drinking and
ecosystems• Potential impacts on agriculture and ecosystems
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Reducing scientific uncertainty
blank spot inIPCC AR4
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Regional Status of Glaciers in the HinduRegional Status of Glaciers in the Hindu
--
Number of Glaciers – 54,820 – 2
CountryGlacierNumber
Area (km 2)Avg. Area/
Glacier Ice Reserve(km 3)
Afghanistan 3622 2677.34 0.739 167.662Bhutan 787 680.25 0.864 47.935China/TAR 26347 29528.6 1.121 2648.7India 12830 12295.58 0.958 1131.26Myanmar 87 23.99 0.276 0.929Nepal 3808 4212.03 1.106 346.70Pakistan 7339 10,991.63 1.497 1758.45Total 54,820 60411.42 1.102 6101.64
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ElevationElevation--Temperature TrendTemperature Trende a ons pe a ons p e an a eaue an a eau
Liu and Chen, 2000
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Glaciers several thousands of years oldare rapidly disappearing
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Impact of Climate Change ‐Imja G acier, Nepa
1956
(Photo: Fritz Muller;courtesy of Jack Ives)
photograph of Imja glacier(Photo: Giovanni
Kappenbergercourtesy of Alton C Byers)
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Changing Glacier EnvironmentChanging Glacier Environment“ISRO:75% of Himalayan glaciers retreating” (“ISRO:75% of Himalayan glaciers retreating” (ToI ToI, 16 May 2011), 16 May 2011)
Gangapurna glacier atthe northern slope ofAnnapurna Range,
Manang Village, Nepal1957 Tony Hagen1957 Tony Hagen 2010 Nabin Baral, ICIMOD2010 Nabin Baral, ICIMOD
RothlishbergerRothlishberger, 1980, 1980
Nabin Baral, 2007Nabin Baral, 2007
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Glacial hazards:Glacial hazards:
Tso Rolpa
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Water resources & glaciers
River Area sqkm
Meandischarge
m 3/s
% of glaciermelt in river
flow
Populationx1000
Populationdensity
Water perpersonm 3/ ear
Indus 1,081,718 5533 44.8 178,483 165 830Ganges 1,016,124 18691 9.1 407,466 401 ~2500
Brahmaputra 651,335 19824 12.3 118,543 182 ~2500
Irrawaddy 413,710 13565 unknown 33,097 80 18,614
Salween 271,914 1494 8.8 5,982 22 23,796
Mekong 805,604 11048 6.6 57,198 71 8934
Yangtze 1,722,193 34000 18.5 368,549 214 2265
e ow , . ,
Tarim 1,152,448 40.2 8,067 7 754
Total 1,324,800
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Regional Monitoring scheme – Snow
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2000-2010 Decadal Snow CoverChange Map
Trend Analysis
-16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16
Percent
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Extreme rainfallExtreme rainfall eventsevents- -NepalNepal
Number of rainy days y = -0.0576x + 103.76R2 = 0.0072
120
•• Less rainy daysLess rainy days90
95
100
105
110
115
D a y s
70
75
80
85
1 9 7 1
1 9 7 3
1 9 7 5
1 9 7 7
1 9 7 9
1 9 8 1
1 9 8 3
1 9 8 5
1 9 8 7
1 9 8 9
1 9 9 1
1 9 9 3
1 9 9 5
1 9 9 7
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 3
Number of days with rain >= 100 mm
1987, 106 19981975
y = 0.5997x + 61.417R2 = 0.0984
100
120
•• ore n enseore n enserainfall eventsrainfall events1977
1992, 35
1982
40
60
80
D a y s
0
1
9 7 1
1
9 7 3
1
9 7 5
1
9 7 7
1
9 7 9
1
9 8 1
1
9 8 3
1
9 8 5
1
9 8 7
1
9 8 9
1
9 9 1
1
9 9 3
1
9 9 5
1
9 9 7
1
9 9 9
2
0 0 1
2
0 0 3
Year (Adopted from(Adopted from BaidyaBaidya andand RegmiRegmi, 2007), 2007)
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Kos arrage
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Pakistan Floods
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Hydrological significance of River basins in the HKH region
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Changes in runoff over time:Changes in runoff over time:
(redrawn from Kaser, unpublished)(redrawn from Kaser, unpublished)High Uncertainty, Limited Baseline Information
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Climate Change impact on
• All scenarios su est a lar e chan e in
natural vegetation• Change in species composition with probablencrease occurrence o nvas ve spec es
• Change in wetland condition•
and evapotraspiration, adverse impact onproductivity of agriculture and livestock
sec ors
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Climate Change Impacts
5Responses
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1. Fill Knowledge Gaps
•• Role of different cryospheric components
• Role of black carbon aerosol on glacierme ng• Condition and role of wetlands• Downstream impacts and responses
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UnderUnder--representation ofrepresentation ofmeteorological observation in the high Himalayasmeteorological observation in the high Himalayas
600521
300
400
500
S t a t i o n s
9864
352 0 1
0
100
200 N o o
f
<1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8Elevation, km
952 met. stations
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2. Adaptation and Resilience Building
•policy/practice
• Local solutions for global problems (eg
• Improved value chains for high valued
products
resilient agriculture and ecosystems
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Strategies?
• ar y warn ng sys ems• Integrated watershed development• Water storage
• Landsca e a roach for biodiversitconservation ecosystem management
• New livelihood o tions• Regional cooperation•
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Past GLOF events inPast GLOF events in HKH regionHKH region
About 56 past GLOF events in the HKHAbout 56 past GLOF events in the HKH
Region (BhutanRegion (Bhutan -- 4, China4, China - - 29, Nepal29, Nepal - - 14,14,
PakistanPakistan - - 9) recorded with about 10 of them9) recorded with about 10 of them
--
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DRR: Risk mapping, capacity development
Dingboche
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3. Foster Collaboration across or ers
Indus Basin Kosi Basin
Abu Dabi Dialogue and South Asia Water Initiative
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Transboundary cooperation:The Koshi basin
Imja
About 54% of thecatchment area lies
,
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River Basin & Transect Approaches
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Intervention Levels in Transect and River Basin ApproachesREGIONAL ENABLING FRAMEWORKS FOR
SCIENTIFIC / TECHNICAL COOPERATION– 1st LevelTransboundary Broker and Facilitator / Regional PlatformResearch Institutions, Academia
STRATEGIC/POLICY ENABLING– 2nd Level
A lied Research / Policies /Stakeholder Priorities Government Agencies, Planners, Policy Makers, Localgovernment, Community organizations
PRACTICAL ACTION / IMPLEMENTATION– 3rd LevelDirectl Related to Develo ment ActivitiesPlanners/Policy Makers/ Practitioners Developmentprojects, NGOs, Resilient Communities
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4. Capacity Building and
• Trainin to meet new needs: lacier massbalance, flood risk management, datamanagement, forecasting
• ommon pro oco or a a co ec on antelemetry
• Institutional stren thenin for more ada tive capacity
• Data dissemination, public awareness,
sens z ng
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5. Global exchange of
• :
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ICIMOD as aregional knowledge organisation
• ,
perspective• -
regionally accessible
• Promoting the extension from local to transboundaryapproaches
• Customising international knowledge
• Capacity development, common methodologies,regionally accessible data, monitoring, quality control
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Thank ou
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Thank ou
1. Fill Knowledge Gaps2. Build Adaptive Capacity
3. Foster Collaboration acrossBorders
4. Build Capacity
5. Global Exchange of Mountain