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Validate - A Nationwide Dynamic Travel
Demand Model for Germany Peter Vortisch, Volker Waßmuth, PTV AG, Germany
2© PTV AG 2007
VALIDATE – A Transport Model for Germany
> A nationwide model for Germany(82 million residents)
> Hourly volumes on roads
> Should use as many public (or commercial) digital data as possible
> Should be easy to update
> Applications
> Regional and nationwide forecasts
> Traffic volumes for the set up of billboards
> Travel time estimation for navigation systems
3© PTV AG 2007
> Representing Germany and the surrounding European countries
> 1.4 million links
> About 7.000 traffic zones
> 9 trip purposes
> 21 person groups
> auto and truck traffic
> quasi-dynamic assignment(time-of-day volumes)
VALIDATE at a glance
4© PTV AG 2007
Road Network Processing
> Initial German Navteq network consists of ca. 6 million links
> Removing minor roads
> Generalization: removing two-leg node
> Automated, reversible and repeatable process
> Mapping of Navteq attributes to assignment relevant attributes
> Adding a reduced European network
> Finally 1.4 million links
5© PTV AG 2007
Traffic Zones
> ca. 10,000 residents per zone
> 5 to 12 connectors per zone
> Finally 7,000 zones(refinement to 10,000 ongoing)
6© PTV AG 2007
Land Use Data
> National and regional population statistics
> 85,000 market analysis zones
> commercially available
> Inhabitants
> Employment by industry
> Buying power
> Additionally
> schools, universities
> special attractors(fun parks etc.)
7© PTV AG 2007
Survey data
German nationwide travel behavior surveys
> MiD 2002 (“Mobility in Germany”)
> 62,000 persons
> 183,000 trips
> SrV (2003)
> 34,000 personsMobility of all and of mobile person
2,98 2,93
3,24 3,25 3,243,04
3,47 3,453,62 3,65 3,69 3,62
84,0
88,989,189,4
84,985,8
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
1982 1987 1991 1994 1998 2003
trip
s p
er p
erso
n a
nd
day
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
90,0
100,0
per
cen
tag
e o
f m
ob
ile
per
son
en
Trips all person Trips mobile person Percentage mobile pers.
Modal Split absolute (without walk < 5 min)
1,29 1,15 1,20 1,10 1,010,84
0,290,28 0,30
0,330,34
0,39
0,800,78 0,60
0,510,52
0,48
0,590,72
1,10 1,32 1,43
1,34
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
1982 1987 1991 1994 1998 2003
Tri
ps
pe
r p
ers
on
an
d d
ay
walk bike PuT PrT
8© PTV AG 2007
No. of car trips for different purposes
Home - Work 18.1 million
Home - Business 6.5 million
Home - Shopping 12.0 million
Home - Other 20.5 million
Work - Home 13.1 million
Business - Home 8.9 million
Shopping - Home 13.9 million
Other - Home 21.7 million
Other - Other 27.6 million
Total: 142.2 million
> trip generation by the EVA-Model (Prof. Lohse, University of Dresden)
> simultaneous destination and mode choice
9© PTV AG 2007
Regional distribution of trips
No of trips / km²
10© PTV AG 2007
Road Traffic Assignment (24 h, static)
RGap = 0.005 after 12 h computing time
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Calibration of the model
> 2000 permanent counting points from BAST (Federal institute for roads)
> additional survey points from different sources
> % RMSE = 23%
12© PTV AG 2007
Validation: Mean Trip distances
Trip purpose mean trip distance mean trip distanceofficial statistics Validate
work 15,3 km 15.3 kmbusiness trip 32,9 km 31.8 kmshopping 10,6 km 10.7 kmother 20,8 km 20.3 kmtotal 16,9 km 17,0 km
13© PTV AG 2007
Time-of-Day Trip Demand
Monday
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00
other - otherother - homehome - othershopping - homehome - shoppingwork - homehome - workbusiness - homehome - business
14© PTV AG 2007
Time-of-day (quasi-dynamic) assignment
ADT assignment peak hour (7 a.m. – 8 a.m.)
> method similar to the Duration based static assignment presented by David Pickworth
15© PTV AG 2007
Result: Time-of-day traffic volumes
(video)
16© PTV AG 2007
Validation: Comparision of volume time profiles
(video sequence of 100 count locations)
17© PTV AG 2007
Application: Traffic volumes in Germany 2020
ACATECH forecast 2020:
> Mileage (private cars)
+ 20 % (+30% on highways)
> Mileage (HGV)
+ 34% (+45% on highways)
> Mileage (all vehicles)
+ 21% (+33% on highways)
compared to 2002
increasedecrease
18© PTV AG 2007
Application: Impact Studies
Example:Effect of Toll on the A4 (Eisenach)
19© PTV AG 2007
Application: Accessibility depending on day and time
Access
Mon 10 a.m.
green: < 1:00 h
red: >3:00 h
20© PTV AG 2007
Validate Network UK 11/2006
Directional Links 630708 Zones 8105Connectors 29531
21© PTV AG 2007
Thank you for your attention !
PTV Planung Transport Verkehr AG, 76131 Karlsruhe
WWW.PTV.DE
Contact infomation:[email protected]@ptv.de