Download - Www.sghmartineau.com US COAL EXPORTS Andrew Whitehead SGH Martineau LLP London, Birmingham, Brussels

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Andrew WhiteheadSGH Martineau LLP

London, Birmingham, Brussels

www.sghmartineau.com

What I will cover….

US coal exports to:

• Europe• India• China

including trends and prospects.


The United States

• Total US exports in 2011 c10% of production (up on 2000-2010 which averaged c5%): world’s 4th largest exporter (2/3 of which met coal)

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=3830

China & India

Europe

Chin

a &

India


Europe


Consumption Imports Imports from the US

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

323,7

03,2

50

181,8

81,3

64

28,3

73,5

00334,7

50,0

00

208,3

37,0

00

38,3

34,0

00 2010

2011

Source: European Commission ‘Eurostats’

Short

tons

EU Coal Statistics

AQP

AQP


Prospects For Coal In The EU

Thermal coal• Coal accounts for c30% of power generation• Short term expansion (nuclear and mine closures), but reducing to 15% by 2030?

• 2020 carbon reduction target• 2020 renewables target• Large Combustion Plant Directive – forced plant closures• EU ETS – full auctioning of permits from 2013• Industrial Emissions Directive – removal of NOx from flue gases

• Conversion of coal plant to biomass: fuel supply a key constraint but US/Canada a major supply source!

• Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) – funding for pilot projects• UK policy – no new coal plant without CCS, and market support for CCS • Overall - markets remain weak.

Met coal• Europe is destination for c50% US exports• Demand affected by recession• Steel production will recover, but difficult to predict when and with what vigour. Its

re-emergence will be into a world of tight emissions controls and higher costs


India


Indian Coal Statistics


0

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

700,000,000

800,000,000

900,000,000

721,9

86,0

00

101,5

64,0

00

2,7

22,6

77

788,4

09,0

00

115,7

43,0

00

5,0

00,0

00

20102011

Source: www.eia.gov

Short

tons


Prospects For Coal In India

Thermal coal• Coal accounts for c55% of power generation• World’s 3rd largest producer after China and US• Inefficient production – reliant on imports• Imports increasing – doubled since 2008• Reduction of carbon emission intensity by 20-25% by 2020• ‘India – Perform, Achieve and Trade System’ • National Action Plan on Climate Change

Met coal• Long-term plan to expand steel industry • Vast domestic resource, but quality is poor and supply cannot keep up with

demand• Imports predicted to more than double by 2015• Most imports come from Australia


China


Chinese Coal Statistics


0

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000

3,500,000,000

4,000,000,000

4,500,000,000

3,6

95,3

78,0

00

195,0

63,0

00

5,5

00,0

00

4,0

53,8

29,0

00

209,4

39,1

47

6,0

62,7

12

20102011

Source: www.eia.gov

Short

tons


Prospects For Coal In China

Thermal coal• Coal accounts for c71% of power generation• World’s largest producer• 12th Five Year Plan:

• 17% reduction in carbon intensity by 2012• 9.5% or more of energy from renewable sources by 2015

• Costs of alternative energy sources falling (nuclear/wind/solar)• National carbon trading scheme expected by 2016• Coal will remain dominant fuel source• Domestic supplies often used as a hedge against high international prices

Met coal• Scarce domestic resource compared to thermal coal• 2012: projected 10% increase in imports over 2011


Thank You

Andrew WhiteheadSenior Partner and Head of Energy and

Climate ChangeT: + 44 (0)870 763 1528M: + 44 (0)7831 160 753

E: [email protected]

Download - Www.sghmartineau.com US COAL EXPORTS Andrew Whitehead SGH Martineau LLP London, Birmingham, Brussels

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