dr ariel liebman - memsi
TRANSCRIPT
Australia
0 250 500 750km
0 250 500mi
Java
Sumatra Kalimantan
SulawesiPapua
MalukuIslands
AUSTRALIA
INDONESIA
WesternAustralia
NorthernTerritory
SouthAustralia
Queensland
NewSouthWales
Victoria
Tasmania
AustralianCapitalTerritory
Bali Lombok
Sumbawa
WestTimor TorresStrait
• Energy resource rich
• Highly carbonisedeconomies
• Remote energy access
• Existing energy infrastructure based on old technology trends / assumptions
Australia and Indonesia: common energy issues
$25MCentreestablishedinlate2013tofacilitateresearch-driveninnovationandbuildstrongerrelationshipsbetweenAustraliaandIndonesia.SharedSolutionsforSharedProblemsSupportedbyparticipatinguniversities:Monash,ANU,USyd,Melbourne&the7topIndonesianUniversities withmatchingfundsfromIndonesianGovt5Themes:ENERGY,Infrastructure,Water,Health,Agriculture
Australia Indonesia Centre
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Dr Ariel Liebman
Deputy Director Monash Energy Materials and Systems Institute (MEMSI)
1. Microgrids and remote area networks
This theme will focus on the technical and economic assessment of decentralised electricity provision options configured as microgrids with substantial levels of renewable sources and energy storage. Covering both off-grid and grid connected microgrids, this work is of importance for both Australia and Indonesia. In Indonesia microgrids are being considered as a key solution for remote area and island electrification while in Australia microgrids are being considered for development both within cities, as a cost mitigation mechanism, and in remote area and indigenous communities, islands, and mine sites to provide an affordable alternative to expensive and high CO_2 diesel generation. This theme will focus on development of new and efficient ways of designing microgrids integrating newer technologies such as solar PV, batteries, and smart grid technologies with existing small scale technologies such as biomass and micro-hydro.
2. Energy System Transformation Pathways
This theme will investigate the development of centralised electricity provision including the trade-offs with local area microgrids. The objective of this research theme is to develop an Energy system investment transformation and operation model that can be used to map out the energy future at a system level and inform decisions by investors, policymakers and the community on the best decision strategies in order to ensure an economically optimal mix of technologies under many future scenarios.
3. Technology AssessmentThe decisions, models and system designs that are developed in the first two themes are critically dependent on the characteristics of new technologies for the production, transportation and management of electricity. Particularly important are the cost, ease of integration, and deployments times that can all vary over time and context. Additionally their energy feedstocks or energy resource availabilities are often geographically diverse, and their capital costs will decline significantly over time for the newer technologies. The best ways to understand and model how these characteristics may change for new technologies is a relatively new field of study, as is the use of these models for making investment decisions. A rigorous treatment and enhancement of the application of these methods is fundamental to developing confidence in the results of investment models.
Research Cluster Leads
Energy Cluster Key Themes
Professor Kenneth Baldwin
Director, Energy Change Institute Deputy Director (Research), RSPE
Dr.Ir. Retno Gumilang Dewi, M.Env.Eng.Sc.,
Centre for Research on Energy Policy, Institut Teknologi Bandung
Dr Igor Skryabin
Business Development Manager, ANU Energy Change Institute
Dr. Ir. Ulfah Juniarti Siregar M. Agr
Lecturer at Department of Silviculture, Faculty of Forestry Institut Pertanian Bogor
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Access to affordable, reliable energy transforms communities. For most Australian and Indonesian families and businesses, that energy still comes from national grids – the networks of power lines that connect usersto power suppliers
But about 67 million Indonesians – almost a third of the country’s population – are not on the grid. They either rely on expensive, non-renewable sources of power – often diesel – or they have no access to power at all. That poses a critical challenge for sustainable development of Indonesia – a nation of islands. To meet the Indonesian government’s goal of 90 per cent electricity coverage by 2020 the country’s electricity generation must grow by nine per cent per year.
Australia also has many remote indigenous communities, island communities and remote mine sites that rely predominantly on electricity generated locally from expensive to deliver, and CO2 emitting diesel.
And the concept of the energy grid is changing. For example, some new Australian suburbs may be going ‘off the grid’. Such suburbs would use renewables such as solar and wind, supported by battery storage and gas to create microgrids that essentially run independently of the national electricity grid.
So what are the best ways to transform energy supply in the two countries? The answers may not be simple.
In communities not yet reliably connected to the grid, there is now
the technological opportunity to ‘leap-frog’ into the “future grid” by tailoring development to suit the nation’s geography and local requirements.
Both countries have also large reserves of coal, natural gas and other fossil fuels but have committed to ‘decarbonising’ the energy system.
The Australia Indonesia Centre has created an “Energy Cluster” of applied research projects to explore
• Local scale solutions by assessing, modelling and triallingmicrogrids
• National scale strategy development by modelling thedeployment of microgrids, assessing future technology options, and identifying the policy and regulatory frameworks needed.
Affordable, sustainable energy for all – transforming electricity supply in Australia and Indonesia
KEY THEMES:- Local area microgrids: rolling out sustainable energy
access for all communities
- Energy system transformation pathways: What is the right balance between centralised electricity transmission and local area microgrids?
- Choosing the right technologies: Energy technology and cost assessment for Indonesia and Australia
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The AIC Partnership
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The Australia-Indonesia Centre was established by the Australian government in October 2013 to focus on creating a multi-stakeholder network between Australia and Indonesia that generates research excellence and high-impact relationships for the mutual benefit of both nations. Hosted at Monash University, the Centre is a $25 million collaboration funded by the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Department of Education and four Australian universities: Monash University, Australian National University, University of Melbourne and University of Sydney.The collaboration also includes the research contributions of seven leading Universities in Indonesia under a relationship with
the Ministry for Research, Technology and Higher Education: Universitas Indonesia, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Universitas Gadjah Mada, Universitas Airlangga, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember and Universitas Hasanuddin.
The Centre brings together these leading research institutions with business, government and communities in both nations to build stronger relationships and cultural understandings, and to create lasting impact from collaborative research.
The Centre has invested in a small number of large, bilateral research clusters, including an Energy Research Cluster, with close links to Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources and associated centres of innovation.
About the Australia Indonesia Centre
Energy Materials
Energy Processing
Energy Systems
Monash Energy Materials and Systems Institute
“Solving Grand Energy Challenges”
w: memsi.monash.edu
Energy Materials• Photovoltaics• Energy Storage• Fuel Cells• Solar Fuels• Alternate Fuels• Energy Saving Coatings• Building Materials• Efficient Manufacturing
Energy Processing• Combustion• Gasification• Geothermal Energy• Shale & Coal Seam Gas• Energy in Mining• CO2 Capture• CO2 Sequestration• CO2 Utilization
Energy Systems• Wind Aerodynamics• Transport Aerodynamics• Data Analytics• Energy Forecasting• Power Engineering• Smart Grids• Energy Efficiency• Energy Strategy & Policy
Monash Energy Research Strengths
More than 80 leading researchers and 200 postgraduate students working within world leading research facilities
A century ago, Sir John Monash set in motion Victoria's first energy
transformation during his tenure as the founding
Chairman and GM of the State Electricity
Commission of Victoria.
Now Monash University is taking on the second transformation, aiming to create campuses that
showcase our energy future, where 100%
renewable powered, dynamic energy
networks are reliable, equitable and
affordable.
Monash Energy Transformation Initiative
• Energyresourceexportindustry
• Highlycarbonisedeconomies
• Remoteenergyaccesschallenges
• Existingenergyinfrastructurebasedonoldtechnologytrendsandassumptions
Australia and Indonesia: common energy challenges and opportunities
0 250 500 750km
0 250 500mi
Java
Sumatra Kalimantan
SulawesiPapua
MalukuIslands
AUSTRALIA
INDONESIA
WesternAustralia
NorthernTerritory
SouthAustralia
Queensland
NewSouthWales
Victoria
Tasmania
AustralianCapitalTerritory
Bali Lombok
Sumbawa
WestTimor TorresStrait
ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES
2-12 National investment outlook © AEMO 2012
Figure 2-4 — Comparison of the NEM-wide energy projections (low, medium, and high scenarios)
2.3.2 Small-scale generation uptake Installations of small-scale rooftop PV systems have increased rapidly over the last five years. After analysing this increase in 2012, AEMO produced a range of projections involving the potential future contribution of rooftop PV to annual energy and maximum demand.17 These estimates have been included in AEMO’s latest projections as reductions (or offsets) in annual energy and maximum demand (for more information about rooftop PV’s contribution to maximum demand, see Section 2.2.3).
Figure 2-5 shows the projected annual energy contribution from rooftop PV from 2012–13 to 2021–22 for each region under the medium scenario. The total annual energy contribution from rooftop PV is predicted to exceed 7,500 GWh in 2021–22.
17 AEMO. Available http://www.aemo.com.au/en/Electricity/~/media/Files/Other/forecasting/Rooftop_PV_Information_Paper.ashx. Viewed 4 July
2012.
150,000
170,000
190,000
210,000
230,000
250,000
270,000
290,000
Ann
ual e
nerg
y (G
Wh)
Year
2012 low scenario 2012 medium scenario 2012 high scenario Actual2011 low scenario 2011 medium scenario 2011 high scenario
Energy Trends in Indonesia and Australia
IndonesiaJockowi’s (+)35GWExpansion(by2019)• 12GWbyPLN• 23GWbyIndependentPowerProducers• 23%Renewableby2024Supportedby• NewProcurementprocesses,Feed-intariffsAustralia• Demanddrop(reversing?),strandedassets?• WeakClimateTargets,PolicyUncertainty• 100%increaseinelectricitypricessince2005
Indonesia’s 35 GW PlanADDITIONAL
CAPACITY FOR ELECTRICITY
GENERATION
FOSSIL
69.987 MW
NRE
16.993 MW
+ 35.000
MW
NRE
11.306 MW
PLN
51.981 MW
FOSSIL
40.675 MW
PLN
86.981 MW
2014 2019
+ 5.687
+ 29.312
80%
20%
78%
22%
84%
16%
COAL ?*)
GEOTHERMAL 1.791 HYDRO 2.507 BIOENERGY 1.155 OTHER NRE 233
INVESTMENT: 20 Mbillion US$ atau sekitar Rp. 260 Triliun (for NRE power plant.
FOSSIL = OIL, NATURAL GAS, COAL
*) To generate 1 MW coal power plant will consume 3000 Ton/year, and 1 million US$/MW investment, and need 3.0-3.5 years from FCÆCOD.
11 Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources| Energi Untuk Kesejahteraan Rakyat
Ministerial Engagement
MinisterSudirman SaidMinistryofEnergyandMineralResources(ESDM)MeetingApril2015SponsorofIETA/IERA
PakWilliamSabandarHeadofNewandRenewableEnergyTaskforce
PakNur PamudjiHeadof35GWProgramOffice,PLNFormerCEO
BaliCleanEnergyCOE
IndonesiaTerang(VillageElectrification)
AustraliaIndonesiaCentre
MOU Feb 2016
Australian Energy Resource Assessment – AETA ➔ IERA
Australiahasanabundanceofenergyofalltypes(exceptoil)
Extra 35GW by 2025
23% to come from renewables
Sulawesi – low res. map3km resolution
Sulawesi – high res. map100m resolution
Australian Energy Technology Assessment: AETA ➔ IETA
Thank You – Terima Kasih!
Contacts:Dr Ariel Liebman, Monash – [email protected] Igor Skryabin, ANU – [email protected]