dr. armi susandi, mt. head of meteorology department, itb
DESCRIPTION
POTENTIAL AREA FOR SOLAR ENERGY GENERATOR AND ITS BENEFIT TO CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM (CDM) IN INDONESIA. Dr. Armi Susandi, MT. Head of Meteorology Department, ITB. OUTLINE. Introduction: Global Climate & Indonesia Projection of Temperature Change in Indonesia - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
POTENTIAL AREA FOR SOLAR ENERGY GENERATOR AND ITS BENEFIT TO
CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM (CDM) IN INDONESIA
Dr. Armi Susandi, MT.Head of Meteorology Department, ITB
OUTLINE
• Introduction: Global Climate & Indonesia• Projection of Temperature Change in Indonesia• Projection of Global CO2 Emission • Projection of CO2 Emission in Indonesia• Map of Potential Area for Renewable Energy in
Indonesia• Projection of Solar Energy Development in
Indonesia• East Java for Potential Area of Solar Energy• Projection of CDM value from Solar Energy
Development
Global Climate
Human activities have affect global climate change.
Climate change increases mean temperature in eart surface caused of greenhouse gas, including: CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCS, PFCS, dan SF6.
Greenhouse gas are usually result of fossil energy, forest fire, and agricultural activities.
Indonesia
This country is the forth biggest population, with amount of people about 215 million (2003), tropical and maritim area.
Indonesia has reserve of coal, natural gas, and oil that is very significant.
As main contibutor for greenhouse emission from energy sector.
Indonesia has ratified Kyoto Protocol, 19th October 2004.
PROJECTION OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE
IN INDONESIA
Year = 2000
Source: Susandi, 2006
oC
Year = 2010 oC
Source: Susandi, 2006
Year = 2020 oC
Source: Susandi, 2006
Year = 2040 oC
Source: Susandi, 2006
Year = 2050 oC
Source: Susandi, 2006
Year = 2060 oC
Source: Susandi, 2006
Year = 2070 oC
Source: Susandi, 2006
Year = 2080 oC
Source: Susandi, 2006
Year = 2090 oC
Source: Susandi, 2006
Year = 2100 oC
Source: Susandi, 2006
Year = 2100 oC
Source: Susandi, 2006
Change of Mean TemperatureYear = 2100
Forest FireoC
LandslideStorm
El-Nino & La-NinaSource: Susandi, 2006
(Source : Brasseur et al., 1999)
CO2 Emission as Result of Fossil Energy and Landuse Change
PROJECTION OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSION
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Tahun
Em
isi C
O2
(Gt/t
ah
un
)
Source: Susandi, 2007
Year
CO
2 E
mis
sion
(G
t/ye
ar)
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Tahun
Em
isi C
O2
(M
t/ta
hu
n)
dasar
Year
CO
2 E
mis
sion
(G
t/ye
ar)
Base
PROJECTION OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSION IN INDONESIA
Source: Susandi, 2007
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Tahun
Em
isi C
O2
(M
t/ta
hu
n)
dasar
Annex I
Year
CO
2 E
mis
sion
(G
t/ye
ar)
Base
PROJECTION OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSION IN INDONESIA
Source: Susandi, 2007
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Tahun
Em
isi C
O2
(M
t/ta
hu
n)
dasar
mitigasi
Annex I
Year
CO
2 E
mis
sion
(G
t/ye
ar)
Base
Mitigation
PROJECTION OF GLOBAL CO2 EMISSION IN INDONESIA
Source: Susandi, 2007
SOLAR ENERGY
Potency of Solar Energy in Indonesia
Intensity of Solar Radiation in Indonesia reach to 4.8 kWh/m2/day
Energy Planted = 8 MW
Flux of Mean Solar Radiation in 1976 to 2005 (W/m2)
Source: Susandi et al., 2008
W/m2
= Wind Energy
= Solar Energy
= Biofull Energy
= Geothermal Energy
= Coal Energy
Map of Potential Area for Renewable Energy in Indonesia
Source: Susandi, 2008
Projection of Solar Energy Development in Indonesia
Source: Susandi, 2008
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Tahun
MW
Year
SMARTS MODEL FOR ESTIMATING SOLAR RADIATION
Model SMARTS
Integration of Solar Radiation
Climate Parameters
Solar Radiation in Wavelength Spectrum
Spatial Map of Solar Radiation
Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2
112 112.5 113 113.5 114
-8
-7.5
-7
Tretes
Pasuruan
Kedaw ung
JatirotoW ringin anom
Banyuw angi
LONGITUDE
January
Source: Susandi et al., 2008
440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2
112 112.5 113 113.5 114
-8
-7.5
-7
Tretes
Pasuruan
Kedawung
JatirotoW ringin anom
Banyuwangi
LONGITUDE
February
Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
Source: Susandi et al., 2008
440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2
112 112.5 113 113.5 114
-8
-7.5
-7
Tretes
Pasuruan
Kedawung
JatirotoW ringin anom
Banyuwangi
LONGITUDE
March
Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
Source: Susandi et al., 2008
440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2
112 112.5 113 113.5 114
-8
-7.5
-7
Tretes
Pasuruan
Kedawung
JatirotoW ringin anom
Banyuwangi
LONGITUDE
April
Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
Source: Susandi et al., 2008
440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2
112 112.5 113 113.5 114
-8
-7.5
-7
Tretes
Pasuruan
Kedawung
JatirotoW ringin anom
Banyuwangi
LONGITUDE
May
Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
Source: Susandi et al., 2008
440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2
112 112.5 113 113.5 114
-8
-7.5
-7
Tretes
Pasuruan
Kedawung
JatirotoW ringin anom
Banyuwangi
LONGITUDE
June
Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
Source: Susandi et al., 2008
440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2
112 112.5 113 113.5 114
-8
-7.5
-7
Tretes
Pasuruan
Kedawung
JatirotoW ringin anom
Banyuwangi
LONGITUDE
July
Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
Source: Susandi et al., 2008
440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2
112 112.5 113 113.5 114
-8
-7.5
-7
Tretes
Pasuruan
Kedaw ung
JatirotoW ringin anom
Banyuw angi
LONGITUDE
August
Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
Source: Susandi et al., 2008
440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2
112 112.5 113 113.5 114
-8
-7.5
-7
Tretes
Pasuruan
Kedawung
JatirotoW ringin anom
Banyuwangi
LONGITUDE
September
Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
Source: Susandi et al., 2008
440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2
112 112.5 113 113.5 114
-8
-7.5
-7
Tretes
Pasuruan
Kedawung
JatirotoW ringin anom
Banyuwangi
LONGITUDE
October
Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
Source: Susandi et al., 2008
440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2
112 112.5 113 113.5 114
-8
-7.5
-7
Tretes
Pasuruan
Kedawung
JatirotoW ringin anom
Banyuwangi
LONGITUDE
November
Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
Source: Susandi et al., 2008
440 455 470 485 500 515 530 545 560 575 590 605 620 635 650 665 680 695 710 725 740 W/m2
112 112.5 113 113.5 114
-8
-7.5
-7
Tretes
Pasuruan
Kedawung
JatirotoW ringin anom
Banyuwangi
LONGITUDE
December
Spatial Map of Monthly Solar Radiation in Year 1988 to 2002
Source: Susandi et al., 2008
MERGE: an Integrated Assessment Model(Model for Evaluating the Regional and Global Effects of Greenhouse Gas Reduction Policies)
http://www.stanford.edu/group/MERGE/
(Manne et al., Susandi, 2004)
Region di MERGE 4.3
Negara Non-Annex I
1. United States 6. China2. Western Europe 7. India3. Japan 8. MOPEC
(Mexico+OPEC)4. CANZ (Canada,
Australia, New Zealand)9. ROW (rest of the
world)5. EEFSU (Eastern Europe,
Former Soviet Union)10. Indonesia
Negara Annex I
CO2 Reduction from Fossil Substituted by Solar Energy
0
0.03
0.06
0.09
0.12
0.15
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
MtC
O2
pe
r ye
ar
Substitution of Gas
Substitution of Oil
Substitution of Coal
Source: Susandi, 2008
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Pric
e of
CO2
($/to
n)
Projection of CO2 Price
Source: Susandi, 2008
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Year
$U
S p
er
yea
r
*10
6
from Gas
from Oil
from Coal
Incoming from CO2 Substitution by Solar Energy
Source: Susandi, 2008
