1

Die Die FolgenFolgen des des ReaktorunglücksReaktorunglücks in in TschornobylTschornobyl und und eröffneteröffnet die die

OrangeneOrangene Revolution in Revolution in derder Ukraine Ukraine Chancen für eineChancen für eine Alternative in Alternative in der der

EnergiepolitikEnergiepolitik??

Die Die FolgenFolgen des des ReaktorunglücksReaktorunglücks in in TschornobylTschornobyl und und eröffneteröffnet die die

OrangeneOrangene Revolution in Revolution in derder Ukraine Ukraine Chancen für eineChancen für eine Alternative in Alternative in der der

EnergiepolitikEnergiepolitik??

Dr. Boris KosoyDr. Boris Kosoy

Staatlice Akademie für Wärme- und Kältetechnik, Staatlice Akademie für Wärme- und Kältetechnik,

Odessa, UkraineOdessa, Ukraine

Dr. Boris KosoyDr. Boris Kosoy

Staatlice Akademie für Wärme- und Kältetechnik, Staatlice Akademie für Wärme- und Kältetechnik,

Odessa, UkraineOdessa, Ukraine

Deutsch-ukrainisches Symposium: Energie der Zukunftden 13. Oktober 2006

Potsdam, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung

Deutsch-ukrainisches Symposium: Energie der Zukunftden 13. Oktober 2006

Potsdam, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung

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OUTLINEOUTLINEOUTLINEOUTLINE

IntroductionIntroduction

Chornobyl accidentChornobyl accident

Ukraine’s energy situationUkraine’s energy situation

The concept of non-nuclear development of the The concept of non-nuclear development of the power industry of Ukrainepower industry of Ukraine

ConclusionsConclusions

IntroductionIntroduction

Chornobyl accidentChornobyl accident

Ukraine’s energy situationUkraine’s energy situation

The concept of non-nuclear development of the The concept of non-nuclear development of the power industry of Ukrainepower industry of Ukraine

ConclusionsConclusions

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History of nuclear power engineeringHistory of nuclear power engineeringHistory of nuclear power engineeringHistory of nuclear power engineering

The first power-generating unit that was connected to the The first power-generating unit that was connected to the electricity grid appeared on July 27, 1954 in Obninsk, USSR.electricity grid appeared on July 27, 1954 in Obninsk, USSR.

In 1970 there were 116 nuclear power generating units and in In 1970 there were 116 nuclear power generating units and in 1980 the number grew to 135. The next decade witnessed the 1980 the number grew to 135. The next decade witnessed the fastest-ever increase in the number of nuclear reactors: their fastest-ever increase in the number of nuclear reactors: their number reached 328 in 1990. In 2001 there were 438 number reached 328 in 1990. In 2001 there were 438 operational nuclear reactors and 31 reactors were under operational nuclear reactors and 31 reactors were under construction or modernization.construction or modernization.

Within this historically short period of time the nuclear power Within this historically short period of time the nuclear power industry has made spectacular progress: as of today, 440 industry has made spectacular progress: as of today, 440 reactors have been built and 24 are under construction. It has reactors have been built and 24 are under construction. It has become a real alternative to thermoelectric power stations.become a real alternative to thermoelectric power stations.

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How does it work?How does it work?

FissionFission: process where radioactive : process where radioactive Uranium or Plutonium is bombarded Uranium or Plutonium is bombarded with neutrons until the nuclei split with neutrons until the nuclei split into lighter elements, causing a chain into lighter elements, causing a chain reaction of splitting and releasing an reaction of splitting and releasing an incredible amount of heat energy.incredible amount of heat energy.

Like a fossil-fuel plant, nuclearLike a fossil-fuel plant, nuclear plants heat a fluid which makesplants heat a fluid which makes steam that spins turbine bladessteam that spins turbine blades that drive an electrical generator.that drive an electrical generator.

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Chornobyl accident Chornobyl accident On 25 April, prior to a On 25 April, prior to a routine shut-down, the routine shut-down, the reactor crew at Chornobyl-4 reactor crew at Chornobyl-4 began preparing for a test to began preparing for a test to determine how long turbines determine how long turbines would spin and supply would spin and supply power following a loss of power following a loss of main electrical power main electrical power supply. Similar tests had supply. Similar tests had already been carried out at already been carried out at Chornobyl and other plants, Chornobyl and other plants, despite the fact that these despite the fact that these reactors were known to be reactors were known to be very unstable at low power very unstable at low power settings. settings.

A series of operator actions, including the disabling of automatic shutdown A series of operator actions, including the disabling of automatic shutdown mechanisms, preceded the attempted test early on 26 April. As flow of mechanisms, preceded the attempted test early on 26 April. As flow of coolant water diminished, power output increased. When the operator coolant water diminished, power output increased. When the operator moved to shut down the reactor from its unstable condition arising from moved to shut down the reactor from its unstable condition arising from previous errors, a peculiarity of the design caused a dramatic power surge.previous errors, a peculiarity of the design caused a dramatic power surge.

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Chornobyl accidentChornobyl accidentThe fuel elements The fuel elements ruptured and the ruptured and the resultant explosive resultant explosive force of steam lifted off force of steam lifted off the cover plate of the the cover plate of the reactor, releasing reactor, releasing fission products to the fission products to the atmosphere. A second atmosphere. A second explosion threw out explosion threw out fragments of burning fragments of burning fuel and graphite from fuel and graphite from the core and allowed air the core and allowed air to rush in, causing the to rush in, causing the graphite moderator to graphite moderator to burst into flames.burst into flames.

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The Chornobyl accident in 1986 was The Chornobyl accident in 1986 was the result of a flawed reactor design the result of a flawed reactor design that was operated with inadequately that was operated with inadequately trained personnel and without proper trained personnel and without proper regard for safety. regard for safety. The resulting steam explosion and fire released at least five percent of the radioactive reactor core into the atmosphere and downwind. 28 people died within four months 28 people died within four months from radiation or thermal burns, 19 from radiation or thermal burns, 19 have subsequently died, and there have subsequently died, and there have been around nine deaths from have been around nine deaths from thyroid cancer apparently due to the thyroid cancer apparently due to the accident.accident.

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Immediate impact Immediate impact

Most of the released material was deposited close by as dust and debris, but the lighter material was carried by wind over the Ukraine, Belarus, Russia and to some extent over Scandinavia and Europe.

In the years following the accident a further 210 000 people were resettled In the years following the accident a further 210 000 people were resettled into less contaminated areas, and the initial 30 km radius exclusion zone into less contaminated areas, and the initial 30 km radius exclusion zone (2800 sq.km) was modified and extended to cover 4300 sq. km.(2800 sq.km) was modified and extended to cover 4300 sq. km.

It is estimated that all of the xenon gas, about half of the iodine and It is estimated that all of the xenon gas, about half of the iodine and cesium, and at least 5% of the remaining radioactive material in the cesium, and at least 5% of the remaining radioactive material in the Chornobyl-4 reactor core was released in the accident.Chornobyl-4 reactor core was released in the accident.

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Chornobyl today Chornobyl today The Chornobyl unit 4 is now enclosed in a large concrete shelter which The Chornobyl unit 4 is now enclosed in a large concrete shelter which was erected quickly to allow continuing operation of the other reactors at was erected quickly to allow continuing operation of the other reactors at the plant. However, the structure is neither strong nor durable and there the plant. However, the structure is neither strong nor durable and there are plans for its reconstruction. The international Shelter Implementation are plans for its reconstruction. The international Shelter Implementation Plan involved raising US$715 million for remedial work including removal Plan involved raising US$715 million for remedial work including removal of the fuel-containing materials. Some work on the roof has already been of the fuel-containing materials. Some work on the roof has already been carried out. carried out. In March 2001 a US$36 million contract was signed for construction of a radioactive waste management facility to treat spent fuel and other operational wastes, as well as material from decommissioning units 1-3. These will be the first RBMK units decommissioned anywhere. Workers and their families now live in a new town, Slavutich, 30 km from Workers and their families now live in a new town, Slavutich, 30 km from the plant. This was built following the evacuation of Pripyat, which was the plant. This was built following the evacuation of Pripyat, which was just 3 km away. just 3 km away.

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Nuclear power in UkraineNuclear power in UkraineUkraine is heavily dependent on Ukraine is heavily dependent on nuclear energy - it has 15 reactors nuclear energy - it has 15 reactors generating half of its electricity. generating half of its electricity. Ukraine receives most of its Ukraine receives most of its nuclear services and nuclear fuel nuclear services and nuclear fuel from Russia.from Russia.

In 2004 Ukraine commissioned two large new reactors. The government In 2004 Ukraine commissioned two large new reactors. The government plans to build up to eleven new reactors by 2030. A large share of plans to build up to eleven new reactors by 2030. A large share of primary energy supply in Ukraine comes from the country's uranium and primary energy supply in Ukraine comes from the country's uranium and substantial coal resources. The remainder is oil and gas, mostly imported substantial coal resources. The remainder is oil and gas, mostly imported from Russia. In 1991, due to breakdown of the Soviet Union, the from Russia. In 1991, due to breakdown of the Soviet Union, the country's economy collapsed and its electricity consumption declined country's economy collapsed and its electricity consumption declined dramatically from 296 billion kWh in 1990 to 170 in 2000, all the dramatically from 296 billion kWh in 1990 to 170 in 2000, all the decrease being from coal and gas plants. Total electricity production in decrease being from coal and gas plants. Total electricity production in 2004 amounted to 181 TWh, and total capacity in 2004 was 52.7 GWe.2004 amounted to 181 TWh, and total capacity in 2004 was 52.7 GWe.

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12

The most serious societal concerns The most serious societal concerns

The Chornobyl problems

14.1%

The construction of new nuclear

facilities 7.4%

low living standards

66.6%

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Opinions on different sources of electric

power Opinions on different sources of electric

power

unable to give a definite answer

31,4%

nuclear power 27,7%

Renewable sources of energy

14,7%

14

Nuclear power industry and energy

dependence Nuclear power industry and energy

dependence

39,3%

30,7%

30%

regard the nuclear industry as a positive factor

do not regard

unable to give a definite answer

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Safety of Ukrainian nuclear power plants Safety of Ukrainian nuclear power plants

undecided7.5%

absolutely safe3.5% substantially

dangerous40.3%

relatively safe24.1%

extremely dangerous

24.6%

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The life extension of operational nuclear

reactors The life extension of operational nuclear

reactors

undecided9%

have not heard of such plans

17%

not concerned19%

worries 55%

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Prospects for construction of 11 new

reactors and public awareness Prospects for construction of 11 new

reactors and public awareness

19,9%

13,3%

9,6%

57,2%

supported

negative about it

indifferent

undecided

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Ukraine’s energy situation and trajectory since independence

Ukraine’s energy situation and trajectory since independence

Ukraine’s energy situation since independence has Ukraine’s energy situation since independence has been characterized first and foremost by two elements:been characterized first and foremost by two elements:

1)1) the country’s dependency on imported energy sources the country’s dependency on imported energy sources – especially on Russian ones;– especially on Russian ones;

2)2) its low levels of energy efficiency.its low levels of energy efficiency.

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High levels of dependency on imported energy

High levels of dependency on imported energy

Ukraine’s total energy Ukraine’s total energy dependency is one of the dependency is one of the highest in the Central-highest in the Central-East European (CEE) East European (CEE) region (see Table).region (see Table).This is the result of This is the result of declining domestic declining domestic production and inefficient production and inefficient energy use, among other energy use, among other factors. factors. According to a study by According to a study by the Ukrainian Centre for the Ukrainian Centre for Economic and Political Economic and Political Studies, should current Studies, should current trends continue, trends continue, Ukraine’s total energy Ukraine’s total energy import dependency could import dependency could rise to 65-70% by 2020.rise to 65-70% by 2020.

1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001

Ukraine 47.4 49.9 N/A 45.9 43.7 43.7 41

Czech Republic

11.9 N/A 22.5 24 25.7 23.3 25.77

Estonia 41.8 N/A 36.0a 31.2 41 37.3 36.1

Hungary 49.8 N/A 52.7 51.8 56 56 54.4

Poland 2.0 N/A 5.2 7.8 9.6 10.7 10.5

Slovakia 77.0 N/A 73.8 72.9 70.3 66.1 61.6

Belarus N/A 87 N/A N/A 86 86.1 85.4

Moldova N/A 99 N/A N/A 95.8 97.9 98

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Changes in Ukraine’s energy import dependency as compared to decreases

in energy consumption

Changes in Ukraine’s energy import dependency as compared to decreases

in energy consumption 1990-1995 1990-1995 1995-2001 1995-2001 1990-2001 1990-2001

Decrease/Increase in Energy Decrease/Increase in Energy Consumption Consumption

(TPES) (in %) (TPES) (in %)

--334.48% 4.48% -14.46% -14.46% -43.95% -43.95%

Decrease/Increase in Energy Decrease/Increase in Energy Import Dependency (in % of Import Dependency (in % of earlier level) earlier level)

+5.27% +5.27% -17.83% -17.83%

-13.5 -13.5

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Inefficient energy production system and high energy intensity

Inefficient energy production system and high energy intensity

Both Ukraine’s energy production system and its economy as a Both Ukraine’s energy production system and its economy as a whole are sorely outdated. Fifty-four percent of Ukraine’s pipelines whole are sorely outdated. Fifty-four percent of Ukraine’s pipelines – built for a normal exploitation period of 25 years – are twenty-– built for a normal exploitation period of 25 years – are twenty-one years old or older, and their state of disrepair increases the one years old or older, and their state of disrepair increases the possibility of accidents. Moreover, pipe-line gas pumping units are possibility of accidents. Moreover, pipe-line gas pumping units are in particularly bad condition, which means increasing amounts of in particularly bad condition, which means increasing amounts of gas are needed to pump gas through the pipelines. gas are needed to pump gas through the pipelines. In addition, Ukraine exhibits very low levels of energy efficiency. Not only does Ukraine have one of the highest levels of energy intensity (energy consumption per unit of GDP) in the world, but it actually increased by almost 50% from 1991 to 2004.Low energy efficiency also affects Ukraine’s exports, lowering their Low energy efficiency also affects Ukraine’s exports, lowering their competitiveness in the long term.competitiveness in the long term.

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Ukraine’s GDP energy intensity trends by international comparison (1989 =100) Ukraine’s GDP energy intensity trends

by international comparison (1989 =100)

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Ukraine’s lack of progress in energy diversification

Ukraine’s lack of progress in energy diversification

Ukraine’s high levels of energy import dependency are made Ukraine’s high levels of energy import dependency are made worse by its problems in energy supply diversification. It is worse by its problems in energy supply diversification. It is generally accepted that energy diversification is guaranteed generally accepted that energy diversification is guaranteed by receiving significant energy supplies from at least three by receiving significant energy supplies from at least three different geographical sources. Ukraine is far from this different geographical sources. Ukraine is far from this situation, as an overwhelming share of its energy imports situation, as an overwhelming share of its energy imports comes from Russia. comes from Russia.

Lack of a proactive energy policy Lack of a proactive energy policy The track record since independence is also one of a lack of a clear, proactive The track record since independence is also one of a lack of a clear, proactive and widely accepted energy policy. This refers to both rules for the day-to-day and widely accepted energy policy. This refers to both rules for the day-to-day organization of the sector, and to a more long-term energy policy. organization of the sector, and to a more long-term energy policy. Unpredictable and often-changing rules for the organization of the energy Unpredictable and often-changing rules for the organization of the energy market (and the gas market in particular) have made it difficult for medium- or market (and the gas market in particular) have made it difficult for medium- or long-term planning to take place, for the system to work smoothly or for serious long-term planning to take place, for the system to work smoothly or for serious

investors to take an interest in the market.investors to take an interest in the market.

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Domestic consequences Domestic consequences

• As a result of the way Ukraine’s energy policy-making As a result of the way Ukraine’s energy policy-making system has worked, many costs are shifted, in a non-system has worked, many costs are shifted, in a non-transparent manner, to the state. This has been the transparent manner, to the state. This has been the case, for example, when the state has assumed the case, for example, when the state has assumed the debts of energy traders, or when it absorbs losses debts of energy traders, or when it absorbs losses related to energy waste. As a result, the state is robbed related to energy waste. As a result, the state is robbed of valuable resources it could use in other areas.of valuable resources it could use in other areas.

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Consequences in terms of the relationship with Russia

Consequences in terms of the relationship with Russia

Ukraine’s blatant energy dependency on Russia, together with Ukraine’s blatant energy dependency on Russia, together with the government’s inability to take a strong policy stance on the government’s inability to take a strong policy stance on energy issues, makes the country especially vulnerable to energy issues, makes the country especially vulnerable to price fluctuations and dependency on Russia and further price fluctuations and dependency on Russia and further complicates both countries’ already difficult relationship.complicates both countries’ already difficult relationship.Energy remains both a bottleneck in the country’s economic development and Ukraine’s Achilles’ heel in its relationship with Russia, a relationship which, in a reflection of Ukraine’s own foreign policy wavering between Russia and the West, remains a highly ambiguous one at the political, military and economic levels. In the context of Ukraine’s currently strained relationships with In the context of Ukraine’s currently strained relationships with other foreign partners, such dependency leads to increased other foreign partners, such dependency leads to increased pressure for closer economic and political integration with pressure for closer economic and political integration with Russia.Russia.

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Transparency Transparency

Lack of transparency in the Ukrainian energy markets not only Lack of transparency in the Ukrainian energy markets not only creates opportunities for corruption and abuse of power, but creates opportunities for corruption and abuse of power, but actually invites corruption by creating opportunities for quick actually invites corruption by creating opportunities for quick enrichment through shady energy deals. enrichment through shady energy deals. Non-transparent systems also offer fertile ground for the appropriation of significant “rents of dependency” at the expense of the state as a whole. Because of the centrality of the energy sector for Ukraine’s economy as a whole, such trends, once started in the energy sector, spread easily to the rest of the economy.Corruption and the general lack of transparency in the system Corruption and the general lack of transparency in the system also keep Western investors away, creating a situation that also keep Western investors away, creating a situation that makes Ukraine more open to Russian economic penetration makes Ukraine more open to Russian economic penetration and influence. and influence.

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Clear and consistent energy policies Clear and consistent energy policies

Whether the system in place allows for the development of Whether the system in place allows for the development of consistent, long-term energy policies will affect diversification consistent, long-term energy policies will affect diversification issues because, given the high cost of and other difficulties issues because, given the high cost of and other difficulties involved in following an energy diversification policy (given the involved in following an energy diversification policy (given the strength of Soviet legacies and of structural factors such as strength of Soviet legacies and of structural factors such as Russian-centered oil and gas pipeline systems), such Russian-centered oil and gas pipeline systems), such diversification only has a chance if it is part of a long-term, diversification only has a chance if it is part of a long-term, consistent energy policy.consistent energy policy. The general system of power in Ukraine has affected the system’s ability to pursue clear and consistent energy policies through two elements:1) through the widespread “capture” of state companies and 1) through the widespread “capture” of state companies and institutions by particularistic interests;institutions by particularistic interests;2) through the constant “balancing” needed to keep the 2) through the constant “balancing” needed to keep the system in place from the president’s perspective, which gets system in place from the president’s perspective, which gets in the way of the development of clear and consistent national in the way of the development of clear and consistent national policies. policies.

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Democratically controlled energy policies

Democratically controlled energy policies

The general system of power in Ukraine has affected the The general system of power in Ukraine has affected the issue of democratic control over energy policy through the fact issue of democratic control over energy policy through the fact that de facto policy decisions are often made not through that de facto policy decisions are often made not through elected representative institutions, but through informal elected representative institutions, but through informal networks.networks. What are some of the effects of this on energy policy?This lack of a democratically controlled energy policy process This lack of a democratically controlled energy policy process makes actual energy policies easy prey for political and social makes actual energy policies easy prey for political and social contestation. It also creates important hurdles on the way to contestation. It also creates important hurdles on the way to energy diversification, because only a democratic and energy diversification, because only a democratic and generally accepted energy diversification policy has the generally accepted energy diversification policy has the chance to be followed despite the hardship involved in its chance to be followed despite the hardship involved in its implementation, as is often the case in the former Soviet area.implementation, as is often the case in the former Soviet area.

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The Concept of Non-nuclear Development of the Power

Industry of Ukraine

The Concept of Non-nuclear Development of the Power

Industry of Ukraine

30

Main indicators of predicted development of the economy and power industry,

according to the Energy Strategy

Main indicators of predicted development of the economy and power industry,

according to the Energy Strategy

The Energy Strategy of Ukraine up to 2030 defines three periods The Energy Strategy of Ukraine up to 2030 defines three periods of economic development up to 2030:of economic development up to 2030:

up to 2010 — the period of innovations-based restructuring;up to 2010 — the period of innovations-based restructuring;

2011—2020 — the period of outpace development of the 2011—2020 — the period of outpace development of the traditional services sector of the Ukrainian economy. These traditional services sector of the Ukrainian economy. These periods of development should result in establishment of periods of development should result in establishment of foundations of a post-industrial economy.foundations of a post-industrial economy.

In the period from 2021 to 2030, the country is expected to In the period from 2021 to 2030, the country is expected to complete its transition to a post-industrial society with relevant complete its transition to a post-industrial society with relevant structural changes in the economy.structural changes in the economy.

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The Energy Strategy of Ukraine up to 2030: Expected GDP growth (UAH

billion)

The Energy Strategy of Ukraine up to 2030: Expected GDP growth (UAH

billion)

32

The Energy Strategy of Ukraine up to 2030: Expected The Energy Strategy of Ukraine up to 2030: Expected dynamics of consumption of primary energy resources, dynamics of consumption of primary energy resources,

accounting for levels of structural and technological accounting for levels of structural and technological

energy conservation by 2030 (million tons EF)energy conservation by 2030 (million tons EF)

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The Energy Strategy: the structure of The Energy Strategy: the structure of consumption of primary energy resources in consumption of primary energy resources in

UkraineUkraine

The Energy Strategy: the structure of The Energy Strategy: the structure of consumption of primary energy resources in consumption of primary energy resources in

UkraineUkraine

Resources

2005 2030

million tons EF

%million tons

EF%

Natural gas 87.9 41 56.7 19.8

Coal 50.2 23.4 101.0 35.3

Oil 25.7 12 34.1 11.9

Other fuel (coalbed methane, biomass, biogas, peat, etc.)

11 5.1 14.4 5.0

Electric energy generation without use of fossil fuels, total

Including: HEPs and HESPsNPPs

39.1 3.91 35.19

18.4 2 16.4

79.1 6.1 72.3

27.9 2.1 25.3

Heat production by NPPs 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.1

Total 214.3 100 285.7 100

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Risks of the “nuclear” scenario of development of the power industry of

Ukraine

Risks of the “nuclear” scenario of development of the power industry of

Ukraine

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Ukrainian NPPs as future exporters of Ukrainian NPPs as future exporters of electric energy to Russia?electric energy to Russia?

Technological and economic risks of the Technological and economic risks of the “nuclear renaissance”“nuclear renaissance”

Dependence of the “nuclear” scenario of Dependence of the “nuclear” scenario of development of the power industry of development of the power industry of Ukraine on RussiaUkraine on Russia

Security of NPPs operations: old and new Security of NPPs operations: old and new risksrisks

36

The Energy Strategy of Ukraine stipulates huge investments into The Energy Strategy of Ukraine stipulates huge investments into development of nuclear power sector by 2030 (UAH 198.3 billion development of nuclear power sector by 2030 (UAH 198.3 billion plus UAH 21.7 billion for development of the nuclear fuel cycle).plus UAH 21.7 billion for development of the nuclear fuel cycle).

These funds are allocated as follows: modernization, reconstruction and improvement of safety modernization, reconstruction and improvement of safety

standards of operational NPPs, management of RW and INF — standards of operational NPPs, management of RW and INF — UAH 5.5 billion;UAH 5.5 billion;

extension of service life of NPPs — UAH 6.4 billion; decommissioning of NPPs reactor units — UAH 7.0 billion;decommissioning of NPPs reactor units — UAH 7.0 billion; commissioning of new reactor units and decommissioning of

reactor units that exceeded their design service life and the extended service life terms — UAH 179.4 billion;

development of uranium and zirconium production facilities, development of uranium and zirconium production facilities, ensuring production of uranium concentrate at the level of full ensuring production of uranium concentrate at the level of full demand of NPPs — UAH 20.4 billion;demand of NPPs — UAH 20.4 billion;

construction of a plant for production of nuclear fuel — UAH 1.3 billion.

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Energy strategies of European countries

Energy strategies of European countries

Development of renewable energy in EU counties is facilitated by “White paper” program and a series of EC Directives on:doubling the share of renewable energy in the overall energy doubling the share of renewable energy in the overall energy consumption of EU countries (from 5.4% in 1997 to 12% in consumption of EU countries (from 5.4% in 1997 to 12% in 2010);2010);facilitation of growing shares of electric energy generation from renewables, from 14% in 1997 to 21% in 2010 in 25 EU countries (Directive 2001/77/EC);facilitation of growing shares of transport bio-fuels to 5.75% facilitation of growing shares of transport bio-fuels to 5.75% by 2010 to 20% by 2020 due to replacement of mineral diesel by 2010 to 20% by 2020 due to replacement of mineral diesel oil and petrol (Directive 2003/30/EC) and by granting tax oil and petrol (Directive 2003/30/EC) and by granting tax exempt status to bio-fuel producers (amended Directive on exempt status to bio-fuel producers (amended Directive on taxation in the sphere of power industry and electric power taxation in the sphere of power industry and electric power generation (Directive 2003/96/EC)).generation (Directive 2003/96/EC)).

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Electric energy generation in GermanyElectric energy generation in Germany

Components 2001 2004

Nuclear power 29% 17.1%

Coal 52% 40.3%

Gas 10% 15.6%

Oil 6%

Cogeneration 3%

Renewable energy 6% 21%*

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Main energy conservation measures Main energy conservation measures application of renewable energy sources;application of renewable energy sources; introduction of cogeneration technologies; reduction of heat and electric energy losses in the course of reduction of heat and electric energy losses in the course of

energy generation, transportation and consumption;energy generation, transportation and consumption; utilization of discharge heat of boilers; utilization of industrial gases;utilization of industrial gases; utilization of coalbed methane; reconstruction of gas transportation systems;reconstruction of gas transportation systems; utilization of pressure of natural gas.

Implementation of all these measures would result in direct reduction of natural gas Implementation of all these measures would result in direct reduction of natural gas consumption for more than 21 billion m3/year, or in replacement of planned consumption for more than 21 billion m3/year, or in replacement of planned NPPNPPs s generation capacity. Overall, these measures would allow replacing about 71 generation capacity. Overall, these measures would allow replacing about 71 million tons EF. Necessary associated investments would reach about million tons EF. Necessary associated investments would reach about UAHUAH 302 302 billion (including about billion (including about UAHUAH 176.5 billion, already stipulated by the Energy 176.5 billion, already stipulated by the Energy Strategy). Therefore, the additional costs reach only Strategy). Therefore, the additional costs reach only UAHUAH 125.5 billion or much 125.5 billion or much lower that the amount of necessary investments, allocated in the Strategy for lower that the amount of necessary investments, allocated in the Strategy for development of nuclear power and the nuclear fuel cycle (UAH 220 billion in total).development of nuclear power and the nuclear fuel cycle (UAH 220 billion in total).

40

Renewable energy sources Renewable energy sources

Expected utilization of renewables in Ukraine up to 2050

41

Expected replacement of fossil fuel and nuclear power by renewable energy in

Ukraine up to 2050

Expected replacement of fossil fuel and nuclear power by renewable energy in

Ukraine up to 2050

42

Bio-energy Bio-energy Fuel types Energy capacity (million tons EF/year)

Straw of cereals (excluding corn) 5.6

Cornstalls, corn cobs and grain 2.4

Sunflower sterns and husk 2.3

Biogas from manure 1.6

Biogas from wastewater 0.2

Wood waste 2.0

Landfill biogas 0.3

Fuel bricks made of solid municipal waste 1.9

Liquid bio fuel (bio-diesel oil, bio-ethanol)

2.2

Fuel trees (willows, poplars, sword grass) 5.1

Peat 0.6

TOTAL 24.2

Potential energy capacity of biomass and peat in Ukraine corn cobs and Potential energy capacity of biomass and peat in Ukraine corn cobs and cornstalls, sunflower stems and huskcornstalls, sunflower stems and husk

43

Wind power Wind power Conditions for development of wind power at the territory of Conditions for development of wind power at the territory of Ukraine are rather favorable. In many regions annual average Ukraine are rather favorable. In many regions annual average wind velocities reach 5—5.5 m/sec at the standard height of wind velocities reach 5—5.5 m/sec at the standard height of 10 m over the surface.10 m over the surface.The range of the most promising regions for construction of large wind power plants incorporates Crimea, Carpathian region, coastal areas of the Black sea and the Sea of Azov, Donbass.

44

Solar heaters Solar heaters Use of solar energy is often Use of solar energy is often considered mainly appropriate considered mainly appropriate for local hot water supply in for local hot water supply in summer seasons. The heat summer seasons. The heat energy generation capacity of energy generation capacity of solar energy is estimated at the solar energy is estimated at the level of 32 TWh*hours/ day. level of 32 TWh*hours/ day. However, in climate conditions of Ukraine, solar energy may be used for residential heating and for year-round district heating systems. Similar technical solutions have been already introduced in many countries, located further north from Ukraine.

Solar-thermal methods utilize panels or Solar-thermal methods utilize panels or “collectors” that heat a fluid, which is in “collectors” that heat a fluid, which is in turn used for heating (solar-thermal)(1) turn used for heating (solar-thermal)(1) or for generating electricity (solar-or for generating electricity (solar-power)(2).power)(2).

45

46

47

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Photovoltaics Photovoltaics From the technical point of view, there are fairly favorable conditions for From the technical point of view, there are fairly favorable conditions for application of photovoltaics in Ukraine. Ukraine inherited main silicon application of photovoltaics in Ukraine. Ukraine inherited main silicon production facilities (about 80%) of the former USSR. Ukraine controls production facilities (about 80%) of the former USSR. Ukraine controls 8% of the global silicon production capacity, but it is poorly utilized now.8% of the global silicon production capacity, but it is poorly utilized now.The technical capacity of photovoltaic energy generation is estimated at the level of 16 TWh*hours/year, or about 3.3 m2 of photovoltaic panels per resident with annual generation of 100 kWh*hours/m2/year. In the case of use of modern and energy efficient appliances, the above generation capacity might meet main household demands.The technically feasible capacity would allow to generate 2 The technically feasible capacity would allow to generate 2 TWh*hours/year by photovoltaic panels in 2030, in 2050 this figure may TWh*hours/year by photovoltaic panels in 2030, in 2050 this figure may raise to 9 TWh*hours/year.raise to 9 TWh*hours/year.

Geothermal energy Geothermal energy Ukraine has a substantial geothermal capacity. The most promising regions include Trans-Carpathia, Crimea, Prikaprattya, Kharkiv, Poltava, Donetsk, Lugansk and Chernigiv oblasts, as well as some other regions.The Ministry of Environment officially estimates reserves of geothermal water at the level of 27.3 million m3/day.

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Hydropower Hydropower • In comparison to other renewables, In comparison to other renewables,

hydropower is a well known and hydropower is a well known and technologically advanced method of electric technologically advanced method of electric energy generation. At the Dnieper, seven energy generation. At the Dnieper, seven high-capacity HEPs and 1 HESP operate high-capacity HEPs and 1 HESP operate with the overall generating capacity of 3907 with the overall generating capacity of 3907 MWh and annual electric energy generation MWh and annual electric energy generation of 10—12 TWh*hours/ year. of 10—12 TWh*hours/ year. In 1983, Dniester HES was commissioned at the Dniester river with generating capacity of 702 Wh and with annual generation of electric energy at the level of about 1 TWh*hours/year. In addition, 50 minor In addition, 50 minor HEPs are operational, with the overall HEPs are operational, with the overall generating capacity of about 100 MWh and generating capacity of about 100 MWh and annual generation of electric power of about annual generation of electric power of about 0.25 TWh*hours/year.0.25 TWh*hours/year.

Falling water, our largest renewable resource next to wood, has been used as an energy source for thousands of years.First used in early 1900’s, todayit provides a fourth of the world’selectricity.Very inexpensive. Cheapestsource of power.

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Cogeneration Cogeneration CogenerationCogeneration means combined generation means combined generation of heat and electric energy. Main benefits of of heat and electric energy. Main benefits of cogeneration include substantial (in 4 times) cogeneration include substantial (in 4 times) decrease of fuel consumption, decrease of fuel consumption, comparatively to separate generation of the comparatively to separate generation of the same amount of heat and electric energy.same amount of heat and electric energy.The overall capacity of construction of a The overall capacity of construction of a distributed network of cogeneration power distributed network of cogeneration power plants is assessed to reach 16,000 MWh. At plants is assessed to reach 16,000 MWh. At the first stage it is appropriate to utilise 5000 the first stage it is appropriate to utilise 5000 MWh (inc. 3000 MWh in the housing and MWh (inc. 3000 MWh in the housing and utilities sector and 2000 MWh in industry.) utilities sector and 2000 MWh in industry.) Implementation of a distributed network of cogeneration plants would ensure:

high energy efficiency and low costs of heat and electric energy;high energy efficiency and low costs of heat and electric energy;substantial reduction of environmental releases of greenhouse gases and other pollutants;energy independence and security of individual facilities and regions;energy independence and security of individual facilities and regions;reduction of energy transmission losses;ability to operate in reactive and peak load modes;ability to operate in reactive and peak load modes;opportunities to use local fuel and alternative energy sources in the framework of an integrated highly efficient technological process.

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ConsumptionConsumption application of modern efficient system of resource consumption metering;application of modern efficient system of resource consumption metering; introduction of automatic systems for regulation of energy consumption; application of energy efficient appliances and lighting devices;application of energy efficient appliances and lighting devices; introduction of modern power electronics systems and equipment; construction/reconstruction of housing in compliance with rational energy construction/reconstruction of housing in compliance with rational energy

use requirements.use requirements. External insulation of walls and archways. Restoration of damaged panel joints and waterproofing of walls.Restoration of damaged panel joints and waterproofing of walls. Insulation of constructive elements of attics, technical floors and basements. Insulation of heating pipes and hot water supply pipes.Insulation of heating pipes and hot water supply pipes. Cleaning (washing) of heating appliances and pipes to remove internal

sediments and restore their initial performance. Installation of reflectors. A large share of IR radiation of a heater heats the Installation of reflectors. A large share of IR radiation of a heater heats the

wall, where the heater is installed. A reflector at the wall allows returning a wall, where the heater is installed. A reflector at the wall allows returning a large part of heat energy to a flat.large part of heat energy to a flat.

Installation of heat-reflecting films and low-emission windows allows reflecting IR radiation (emitted by heating appliances and residents, as well as sunlight, reflected from walls and furniture). As a result, heat losses through windows may be substantially reduced.

Insulation and sealing of doors and windows.Insulation and sealing of doors and windows. Reconstruction of external entrance doors. Replacement of old balcony doors and windows by modern window blocks Replacement of old balcony doors and windows by modern window blocks

allows to reduce heat losses substantively and excessive infiltration.allows to reduce heat losses substantively and excessive infiltration.

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Utilization of coalbed methane Utilization of coalbed methane

Ukraine has substantial and almost unexplored Ukraine has substantial and almost unexplored resources of coalbed methane. A large-scale extraction resources of coalbed methane. A large-scale extraction and utilization of coalbed methane would allow making a and utilization of coalbed methane would allow making a serious contribution into meeting energy needs of serious contribution into meeting energy needs of Ukraine. In addition to the above considerations, Ukraine. In addition to the above considerations, extraction of coalbed methane in Ukraine should improve extraction of coalbed methane in Ukraine should improve

safety of coal mining operations.safety of coal mining operations.

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The non-nuclear scenario of development of the power industry of

Ukraine up to 2030

The non-nuclear scenario of development of the power industry of

Ukraine up to 2030

“non-nuclear” scenario

“nuclear” scenario

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Financing of development of the power industry of Ukraine in the period from

2005 to 2030

Financing of development of the power industry of Ukraine in the period from

2005 to 2030 Allocations by

sectorsThe Energy Strategy,

UAH billion

The Alternative Concept, UAH

billion

Heat power industryHeat power industry 183.4 183.4

HydropowerHydropower 19.7 19.7

Development of power Development of power distribution distribution networksnetworks

82.8 82.8

Nuclear powerNuclear power 198.3* 50*

Development of A&RsDevelopment of A&Rs 7.1 117.6

Nuclear fuel cycleNuclear fuel cycle 21.7 —

Coal industryCoal industry 221.7 221.7

Oil and gas complexOil and gas complex 282.3 332.3**

Total 1017.0 1007.5

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ConclusionsConclusionsConclusionsConclusions

• Analysis of capacity and opportunities Analysis of capacity and opportunities for application of energy conservation for application of energy conservation

technologies, alternative and renewable technologies, alternative and renewable energy sources suggests that there is a energy sources suggests that there is a real alternative to the nuclear option of real alternative to the nuclear option of development of the power industry of development of the power industry of

Ukraine!Ukraine!

• Analysis of capacity and opportunities Analysis of capacity and opportunities for application of energy conservation for application of energy conservation

technologies, alternative and renewable technologies, alternative and renewable energy sources suggests that there is a energy sources suggests that there is a real alternative to the nuclear option of real alternative to the nuclear option of development of the power industry of development of the power industry of

Ukraine!Ukraine!

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