dr. g. johnson, basic concepts research methods for public administrators dr. gail johnson

Basic ConceptsResearch Methods for Public Administrators

Dr. Gail Johnson

Dr. G. Johnson, www.researchdemystified.org

Social ScienceAt its simplest, the elements of pure science:Chance occurrenceObservant/inquisitive mind: I wonder why? I wonder if?Deduction of the principlesTesting those principlesOf course, it is more complex but this is its essence


Secret Language of ScienceTheoryHypothesisVariableValues


Theory

Used to explain reality or determine why things happen. Developed by using the scientific method: the observation and deducing the underlying principles.Proven theories tell us why people do what they do or organizations act they way they do.The law of supply and demand


Theory

Proven theories enables you to make predictions.If we increase health prevention programs, there will be a reduction in preventable childhood diseasesUntested theories might be considered beliefs.


Theory In the NewsEquilibrium theory: belief an unconstrained market will reach equilibrium because of the balance of various forces. This is the invisible hand that will make everything okay. One fundamental belief is that market values change only in response to new information. Mark Buchanan, This Economy Does Not Compute, New York Times, October 1, 2008.


HypothesisA conjecture put forth as a possible explanation of certain relationships A statement that specifies the relationship between variables.If we fund welfare to work programs, we expect that it will move 75% of the people off welfare.Serves as the basis for experimentation by which to reach the truth.If we give banks $700 billion, then they will extend credit to homeowners and small businesses thus reducing foreclosures and economic collapse in small towns.


HypothesisYour best guess about how various factors are related based on a theory.A testable assumption based on a theory.If X is true, then Y should be true.If we train the chronically unemployed, then they will be more likely to obtain jobs.


Examples of Familiar HypothesisA. If Max Weber is correct, then the more hierarchical and bureaucratic an organization is, then the more efficient and effective it will be.B. If Weber is correct, then the more bureaucratic an organization is, the less personal likes and dislikes will be present.


Hypothesis: ExamplesC. If adult theory is correct, then adults in learning environments that are highly interactive and hands-on will learn more than adults in traditional, passive, lecture classes.D. Other examples??


Equilibrium Theory TestedHypothesis: If there a relationship between financial news stories and market activity, then we should see greater changes in market activity immediately following a major financial story.


Variable and ValuesVariable:Observable characteristicsEg. Race, gender, income, IQ scores, employee satisfactionValues: Categories of the variableEg. Male or Female, dollar amount


Variables and Values

VariableValuesGenderMaleFemaleJob SatisfactionVery Satisfied- to- Very Dissatisfied ScaleAnnual Salary Actual Dollar Amount


What are the Values?VariablesRace:

Education:

Education:ValuesWhite, Black, African-American, Hispanic, Asian, Multi-racial, Other

Number of years completed: 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 154, 16, 17, 18+

Highest degree completedHigh school, Associates, some college, BA/BS, Masters, PhD, MD, JD


Level of MeasurementNominal Data: Values consists of names or categories. There is no order: one is not more or less than the other, better or worse.Gender: (male/female)Religion (Christian, Jewish, Buddhist, Muslim, Other)Country of OriginBranch of the Military


Level of MeasurementOrdinal Data: Values have an OrderIncome categories: low income, middle income, high income)Highest degree completed: less than high school, completed high school, college graduate, advanced degree (MPA, JD, PhD).Opinion scales (Likert Scales): How satisfied or dissatisfied (scale of 1-5); Do you agree or disagree (scale of 1-5). These are not real numbers but conceptually reflect an order from low to high.


Level of MeasurementInterval Data: The values are numbers of equal distance but do not contain a zero. SAT, GRE and IQ scores are interval data.Ratio Data: The values are real numbers with a zero point. Income in dollars, weight, years of education completed, number of inches of rain are ratio data.


Level of MeasurementInterval and Ratio Data are treated the same way when analyzed. I tend to refer to both as real numbers, as compared to ordinal and nominal data. Ordinal and nominal are analyzed differently. You can average real numbers, but you cant average nominal or ordinal data.


Causation/CausalityFour elements are needed:Logical Theory (to explain why the variables should be related)Time order (the causal variable must come first)Co-variation (as the causal variable increases or decreases, the other variable should also changeNo Rival Explanations: All other possible explanations must be eliminated


Independent and Dependent VariablesTime Order:Independent Variable (IV): the ChangerHas to Happen BeforeDependent Variable (DV): the ChangedHas to Happen After


Independent and Dependent VariablesIndependent Variable (IV):Explains the changesThe variable that causes change (the changer)Dependent Variable (DV):The variable being explained or changed May also be called outcome or effectPerceived Salary EquityEmployee Satisfaction


Pay Equity Satisfaction?Of those who feel they are paid equitably, 85% report being satisfied with their job.In contrast, of those who feel they are not paid equitably, 35% report being satisfied with their job.


ExampleHypothesis: As Age Increases, Health problems IncreasesAgeHealth ProblemsIVDV


ExampleDo high GRE scores predict academic success as measured by GPA? It would be depicted like this:GRE ScoresGPAIVDV


ExampleDo women earn less than men? Hypothesis: If you are a woman, you are more likely to earn less than a man doing similar work. Gender explains differences in Income.GenderIncomeIVDV


Is it always that simple? NoCould there be something else that affects earnings besides gender? Maybe it is level of education. We could control for education, by looking at the income of men and women and at different education levels, and then see if there is a still a difference based on gender.


Control VariableA third variable that affects or even changes the initial relationship between the independent and dependent variablesEg. Does gender make a difference in the initial relationship between perceived salary equity and employee satisfaction?Put another way: Are men more likely to be dissatisfied with pay inequity then women?Gender is a control variable in this example.


Control VariableFor men, of those who feel they are paid equitably, 70 percent report they are satisfied with their job. Of those men who feel they are not paid equitably, 20 percent report being satisfied. For women, of those who feel they are paid equitably, 90% report they are satisfied with their job. Of those women who do not feel they are paid equitably, 55% report being satisfied.


Control VariableConclusion? Pay equity is less a factor in job satisfaction for women as compared to men.This is one way a control variable might work to reveal deeper insights.


Control VariableVariables might initially appear to be related but there is another variable that actually is the real explanation..


Uncovering Bogus RelationshipsAs ice cream sales increase, the number of downings also increase.Does ice cream cause drownings?Maybe something elselike warm temperturesexplains increases in ice cream sales and drownings.Controlling for a third variable:When temperature is controlled for (this is the control variable), the initial relationship disappears. The initial relationship is called spurious (or bogus).


Uncovering New RelationshipsTwo variables may appear not to be related by when a control variable is added, a relationship emerges.For example, there may be no discernable music preferences among people based on income but when education is used as a control variable, it may turn out that there are noticeable differences in music preferences.


Direction of RelationshipsDirect Inverse Non-linear


Direct RelationshipsBoth variables change in the same directionAs age increases, health problems increasesAs GRE increases, GPA increasesAs calorie intake decreases, weight decreases


Inverse RelationshipsVariables change in the opposite directionAs age increases, memory decreasesAs skills increase, errors decreaseAs family income decreases, the incidence of teen births increases


Non-linear relationshipsChanges in the dependent variable goes both up and down. As age increases, income increases, until age 60; After age 60, income decreasesDrug use is higher among youth from low income families and high income families, but lower among middle income families.


Independent and Dependent Variables Can SwitchHypothesis: as poverty increases, teen birth rates increase.Independent variable: poverty in a community.

Dependent variable:teen birth rates.


Independent and Dependent Variables Can SwitchHypothesis: As teen birth rates in a community increase, the poverty in a community increases.Independent variable: teen birth rates.

Dependent variable: poverty in a community.


RelationshipsKey Point: Independent and dependent variables are related to the context.Determining which variable is causal in the context is often a judgment call.


RelationshipsDeath rates in car accidents are higher in less densely populated areas.Independent: Population densitymeasured as number of people/sq. mile or as high, medium, lowDependent: Death rates in car accidents as measured by the number/1000 miles drivenDirection of the relationship: inverse.


Takeaway LessonResearch methods is like learning a foreign language.The concepts will really will become clearer as we work our way through this material.Remember, you have mastered difficult material before; this is no different.As in life, patience and perseverance help.


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research demystified ch 2

dr. g. johnson, basic concepts research methods for public administrators dr. gail johnson

Documents

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newsequilibrium theory

adult theory

theory testedhypothesis

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proven theories

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