dr. george hurtt department of natural resources &
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Dr. George Hurtt Department of Natural Resources & Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Space University of New Hampshire Durham, NH 03824 [email protected]. November 6, 2003. NAST 2001. IPCC 2001. IPCC 2001. Global C Budget (PgC/y). IPCC 2001. IPCC 1994. IPCC 2001. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Dr. George HurttDr. George Hurtt
Department of Natural Resources &Department of Natural Resources &
Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans and Spaceand Space
University of New HampshireUniversity of New Hampshire
Durham, NH 03824Durham, NH 03824
[email protected]@unh.edu
November 6, 2003
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NAST 2001
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IPCC 2001
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IPCC 2001
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Global C Budget (PgC/y)Global C Budget (PgC/y)
1980s1980s 1990s1990s
Atm. IncreaseAtm. Increase 3.3+/-0.13.3+/-0.1 3.2+/-0.13.2+/-0.1
EmissionsEmissions 5.4+/-0.35.4+/-0.3 6.3+/-0.46.3+/-0.4
Ocean-Atm. FluxOcean-Atm. Flux -1.9+/-0.6-1.9+/-0.6 -1.7+/-0.5-1.7+/-0.5
Land-Atm. Flux*Land-Atm. Flux* -0.2+/-0.7-0.2+/-0.7 -1.4+/-0.7-1.4+/-0.7
*partitioned as *partitioned as followsfollows
Land UseLand Use 1.7(0.6-2.5)1.7(0.6-2.5) NANA
Residual Residual Terrestrial SinkTerrestrial Sink
-1.9(-3.8-0.3)-1.9(-3.8-0.3) NANA
IPCC 2001
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IPCC 1994
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IPCC 2001
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Transport Numbers of RegionsModels 7 12 17
TM2
TM3
GCTMM
Pacala et al., 2001, Science, 292:2316-2320
Land-Based Range
}
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
1990-1994
I II III
Consistent land- and atmosphere- based U.S. carbon Consistent land- and atmosphere- based U.S. carbon sink estimates.sink estimates.
Category Low High
Forest Trees 0.11 0.15 Other Forest Organic Matter 0.03 0.15
Cropland Soils 0.00 0.04 Woody Encroachment 0.12* 0.13*
Wood Products 0.03 0.07 Reservoirs 0.01 0.04
Exports Minus Imports 0.04 0.09
Exported by Rivers 0.03 0.04
Apparent Sink Without WoodyEncroachment 0.25 0.58
Apparent Sink 0.37 0.71
Sink 0.30 0.58
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Projecting the Future of the U.S. Carbon SinkProjecting the Future of the U.S. Carbon Sink
Hurtt et al., 2002, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99(3):1389-1394
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Cox et al., 2000, Nature 408:184-187
Coupled Earth System ModelsCoupled Earth System Models
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Context for decision making with uncertainty
Kammen & Hassenzahl, 1999, Should We Risk It?, Princeton.
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Kammen & Hassenzahl, 1999, Should We Risk It?, Princeton.
Context for decision making with uncertainty