dr. james jf forest · counterterrorism strategy will be effec@ve across many instances 4. ......
TRANSCRIPT
DHP P244: Terrorism & Counterterrorism
Dr. James JF Forest
Week 9: Counterterrorism Frameworks & Strategies
4Premises1. Terrorismwillbeapartoftheforeseeablefuture,anditis
likelythatterroristgroupswilldiscoverorcreatenewcapabili+es,astheyhavethroughouthistory
2. Terrorismisacontextualphenomenon,withawiderangeofideologies,grievances,capabili@es,etc.
3. Counteringterrorismrequiresfocusoncontexts(enablers,mo@vators,organiza@onalaFributes);Nosinglecounterterrorismstrategywillbeeffec@veacrossmanyinstances
4. Thenatureofterrorismhaschangedinrecentdecades,withtheriseofdecentralized,“doityourself”modelsofterroraFacks
• Domes@ccounterterrorismrequiresinteragencycoopera@on(federal,stateandlocal),especiallyregardingintelligenceandcriminalinves@ga@ons
• Alsorequiresinvolvementofthegeneralpublic– Communityvigilanceandresilience– Indicatorsofsuspiciousbehavior;“Seesomething,say
something”;lawenforcement–communityrela@ons
CounteringTerrorism
• Interna@onalcounterterrorismrequiresintegra@onofalldimensionsofana@on’spower
DifferentKindsofPower
Domestic CT International CT Monopoly of legal use of force within sovereign territory, but:
- Government accountability - Legal/court systems - Civil liberties, free press
No monopoly; must compel, incentivize other sovereign countries to act in certain ways
- Legal traditions vary widely - Power, leverage, sharing - Intelligence in hostile areas
Constraints on the use of power
• HardPower“Warheadsonforeheads”;Does“toughness”or“coercivepolicy”deterterrorism?
• So3Power(diplomacy,economicleverage,informa@on,andintelligence);-cfJosephNye,(formerDean,HKS)
DifferentKindsofPower
• GrievancesandSourcesofDiscontent– Oppressive,corrupt,incompetentregimes;noruleoflaw– Demographicchanges(popula@ongrowth,urbaniza@on,etc.)– Deepethnicfissures(Sudan,Yemen,Kurdishregions,Chechnya,etc.)– Economictrends(globaliza@on,resourcedistribu@oninequi@es,etc.)
• Facilitators– Porousbordersandzoneswithlimitedgovernmentinfluence– Vibrantglobaltraffickingnetworks–human,drugs,weapons
• Transi@oningStates– Governmentsandpoli@calsystemsintransi@onareoaendistracted
anddisorganized(impactof“ArabSpring”?)– Transi@ontodemocracycanbefragile,difficult,violent@mes
How can various forms of national power help us deal with . . .
ElementsofNa@onalPowerDiplomacy Needlong-terminterna+onalCTcoopera+on
Intelligence Needtolearntheenemy’sstrongandweakpoints
Military Massivemilitaryforma+onsnotuseful;Needpreciseopera+ons(SOF),understandculture,behavior
Economic HelpcountriesaddresseconomicgrievancesImposesanc+onsagainststatesponsors
Financial Iden+fyingandtarge+ngnewfundingstreams
Informa+on Countertheterroristgroupnarra+vesMaintaincredibility,moral/ethicalhighground
Legal Arrest,prosecute,imprisonterrorists;MoralandethicalconstraintsacrossallDIMEFILdimensions
Need strategic framework, national plan to guide tactics, integrate all elements
Diplomacy
• Whatdoweknowaboutstate-sponsoredorstate-facilitatedterrorism?Andwhatisbeingdoneaboutit?
• Who’sresponsiblefordiploma@ceffortsinCT?
• Howcanourac@onsinthediploma@carenahelp(orhurt)ourcounterterrorismefforts?
Intelligence• Anyeffec@vedeterrenceorpreven@onofterrorismrequiresquality
intelligence
• 6basicintelligencesources,or“collec@ondisciplines”:
– SignalsIntelligence(SIGINT)– ImageryIntelligence(IMINT)– MeasurementandSignatureIntelligence(MASINT)– Human-SourceIntelligence(HUMINT)– Open-SourceIntelligence(OSINT)– Geospa@alIntelligence(GEOINT)
Source:U.S.DirectorateofNa@onalIntelligence
Intelligence• InherentUncertainty• DefiningIntelligence
– Derivemeaning&understandingfromallsourcesofinforma@on
• Products,consumers– President’sDailyBrief
• Es@mates(predic9ngthefuture?)– NICGlobalTrends2030
• ThreatAssessment• NCTC,DNI,NIC,FusionCenters• Counterintelligence,covertac@on
• Everyonespiesoneveryone
Source: ISE.Gov (Information Sharing)
Intelligence
• WhatdoesDanielBymandescribeinhis“IntelligenceWaronTerrorism”ar@cle?
• WhatdoesJenniferSimspointtoasthechallengesofcounterterrorismintelligence?
• Whataresomekeyintelligence-relatedchallengesinEurope,inrela@ontorecentincidentsinParis,Brussels,etc.?
• WhataresomecommonintelligencemistakesinCT?
Military
• Whatshouldmilitaryforcesdoaspartofaneffec@vecounterterrorismstrategy?
• Whatshouldmilitaryforcesabsolutelynotdowhenimplemen@ngacounterterrorismstrategy?
• Whatcanyourcountryreasonablyexpectfrommilitaryforcesinothercountries?Howcanyourforceshelpthem,ifnecessary?
• DowerelytoomuchonmilitaryforcesforCT?
Economic
• Roleofshadoweconomy,blackmarkets
• WhatdoesJobyWarricksayaboutthe“economicwar”againsttheIslamicState?
• Inwhatwaysarepoverty,economiccondi@onsrelatedtoterrorism?
EconomicContexts
• Ourworldisrarelythewaywewantitbe
• Sense of crisis, intense grievances is particularly acute for young people searching for jobs
Aspirations & Desires
Opportunities
Source of frustration and anger
• Government or society unable or unwilling to provide enough opportunities
• Perceived illegitimacy
EconomicResponses
• HowdoestheWorldTradeOrganiza@on,theU.S.DepartmentofCommerce,orothersuchorganiza@oncontributetoacounterterrorismstrategy?
• Developmentassistance?Jobs?Whatelse?
• Howcantheprivatesectorcontributetoaneffec@vecounterterrorismstrategy?
Finance
• [email protected].?Europe?
• Whatdoweknowaboutterroristsearn,move.store,anddistributefinances?Whatdoweneedtoknowanddo?
• Whataretheresponsibili@esoftheprivatesectorincomba@ngterrorismfinance?
• Whataretheresponsibili@esofindividualconsumersincomba@ngterrorismfinance?
Goodreading:PaulJ.Smith,“TerrorismFinance:GlobalResponsestotheTerrorismMoneyTrail,”inEssen%alsofCounterterrorism,p.105-127.
Informa@on
• Whoisinchargeoftheinforma@ondimensionofCT?
• Whatkindsofthingsaresome@mesdoneintermsofpublicdiscoursethatcouldbecounterproduc@vetoCTobjec@ves?
• Whatismeantbytheterm“BaFleofIdeasagainstISIS”?– Whoisfigh@ngthisbaFle?
Informa@on
• WhatdoesStephenWaltsayabout“OurOwnImagining”?
• Howareterroristsportrayedbypoli@calleaders,mainstreammedia,others?
• Whatarewedoingaboutcounteringterroristideologiesandnarra@ves?
• WhatdoesEricRosandsuggestshouldbedonetopromoteaglobaleffortto“counterviolentextremism”?
LawEnforcement
• Courts,legalframework• Whatkindsoflegisla@oncouldhavethegreatestposi@ve(or
nega@ve)impactoncounteringterrorismeffec@vely?• Note:Emergencylegisla@on,powers,havealmostneverled
directlytodeclineinterrorism(HewiF,1984)
• Lawenforcement&communitypolicing
• Intersec@onwithorganizedcriminalnetworks,drugtrafficking,moneylaundering,etc.
• Counterterrorismeffortsmustbeviewedasconsistentlyappliedwithintheruleoflaw
Summary
• Diplomacy
• Intelligence
• Military
• Economic
• Financial
• Informa@on
• Legal
Massive military formations not useful; Need precise operations (SOF), understand culture, behavior
Identifying and targeting new funding streams
Need to learn the enemy’s strong and weak points
Need long-term international CT cooperation
Help countries address economic grievances Impose sanctions against state sponsors
Counter the terrorist group narratives Maintain credibility, moral/ethical high ground
Arrest, prosecute, imprison terrorists; Moral and ethical constraints across all DIMEFIL dimensions
Need integrative strategic framework, national plan to guide tactics
Break
Wearedoomed...?
• “Thebestlaiddiploma@c,economic,legal,andevenmilitaryplanswillonlycontainterrorism,notdefeatit.”
-Mar9nandWalcoD,1988
• Terrorismcanneitherbestoppednorabsolutelyprevented,onlycontained.
- IanO.Lesser,BruceHoffman,JohnArquilla,DavidRonfeldt,andMicheleZanini,CounteringtheNewTerrorism(SantaMonica,CA:Rand,1999),
• “Wemustlearntocontainandregulatetheanarchythatfomentsboth
thedestruc@venessofterroristsandtheinjus@cesofglobalcapital.” -BenjaminBarber,2005
• “TheUnitedStatesmustadoptastrategyofcontainmentandaddress
theunderlyingcausesofdiscontent.”-StevenSimon,2003
Next week’s class: Containment & Deterrence
CTLessons
What lessons do Andrew Liepman and Philip Mudd suggest the U.S. should learn from the last 15 years of fighting terrorism?
CTBaFlefields
Battlefield Counterterrorism Terrorist Groups
Kinetic aspects
Military, law enforcement
Bombings, violence against civilians
Endurance of society
Managing expectations
Use fear to compel behavior, policies
Narrative (Influence Warfare)
Must counter and discredit the narrative of terrorists
Convince population that the CT effort is repression, unjust
Legitimacy Must be perceived as legitimate, credible
Must be perceived as legitimate, credible
Challenge for either side: Be successful in all battlegrounds
Legi@macy
“The provision of governance and institutions that serve the people, not just the elites . . . “
As legitimacy declines, likelihood for political violence
increases - Ted Robert Gurr, 1960 - Max Manwaring, 1992
• Legitimacy is a perception-based phenomenon
• Perceptions of legitimacy, justice are central to success • Perceived lack of legitimacy undermines all other efforts
Legi@macy
• WhatdoesJenniferHolmesdescribeasthekeychallengestodevelopingandimplemen@ngcounterterrorismpolicyinaliberaldemocracy?
• WhatdoCrenshawandLaFreesayabout“over-responding”toterrorism?
HowLegi@mate?• Must pursue counterterrism objectives within ethical
and legal frameworks; avoid exacerbating grievances
• Just War Theory: Morality of the use of force • jus ad bellum – when is it justified to use armed force? • jus in bello – What constraints should be placed on how
force is used
• Must not over-react; terrorist strategy may be to provoke over-reaction
• Must not under-react, as this creates space for the possible emergence of militants, vigilantes
Miller:ContextsareCri@cal
• Terroristgroupshavedifferentgoals
• GovernmentCTpoliciesthushavedifferenteffectsondifferentgroups– Somepoliciesaremoreeffec@vethanothersagainstaspecificgroup
• Responsescaninclude:– Donothing:ignoreit– Concilia@on:nego@ate,addressgrievances– Legalreform:newlaws,ins@tu@ons,policepowers,– Restric@on:mar@allaw,sanc@ons,targethardening– Violence:killorinjureterroristsandsupporters
• Combina@onsofresponsesworkbeFerthanasingletype
• Groupideologyandenablingenvironmentsimpacthoweffec9veapar@cularkindofgovernmentresponsecanbe
Mul@pleLevelsofEffort
• Evaluatepoten@alcapabili@esandinten@ons,trends,andprovideanopera@onalnetassessmentofthegroup(localHUMINTiscri@cal)
• Iden@fyandinterdictfinancingstreams,assets
• Developacredibleideologicalcounter-narra@ve:makefundraising,recruitmentmoredifficult
• Mustbeethically&legallydefensibleinallac@ons
Mul@pleLevelsofEffort
• Needtoconstrainaterroristgroup’sabilitytoinfluenceothers(affiliates,individuals)tocommitterroristactsonbehalfoftheirideology
• Needtounderstandandcurtailradicaliza@onprocesses
• Underminetheresonanceofthemo@va@ngideology
• Discredittheideologicalentrepreneurs,influencers
Summary
• Comba@ngterrorismisacomplex,mul@facetedchallenge
• Legi@macyisessen@alforbothdomes@candinterna@onalcounterterrorism
• U@lizeallDIMEFILassets:Wholeofgovernmentapproachneededto:
1. Diminishthecapabili@esoftoday’sterroristgroups2. Diminishtheenvironmentalenablersthatfacilitatethedaily
opera@onsandideologicalresonanceoftheterroristgroups
ExamplesofFinalQues@ons
• Howandwhendoesacountryknowifterrorismhasbeendefeated?Whataretheappropriateassessmentmetrics?Whatdoessuccesslooklikeandisitpossible?
• Whatarethelimitsofcounterterrorism,especiallyinaliberaldemocracy?
• Whatac@onscouldagovernmenttakeinresponsetoterrorismthatmightactuallymakethingsworseinsteadofbeFer?
• Doesaneffec@vecounterterrorismpolicynecessarilyrequireareduc@oninci@zens’civilliber@es?Whyorwhynot?
Ques@ons?