dr. robbert biesbroek€¦ · ford, j., berrang -ford, l. (2016). the 4cs of adaptation tracking:...
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Tracking adaptation to climate change
Dr. Robbert Biesbroek Wageningen University & Research, Public Administration and Policy Group , the Netherlands
TRAC3 (TRacking Adaptation to Climate Change Collaboration @McGill University,
Wageningen University & Research)
What is tracking adaptation to climate change?
What is tracking adaptation? Systematic collection, processing and analysis of data
and information to describe, assess and explain adaptation (policy) stability and change over time and/or across contexts
Why tracking adaptation? Policy performance (e.g. goal attainment) Accountability (e.g. climate investments) Policy orientated learning (e.g. share lessons learned)
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Earlier work: Observed change among high-income countries (NC5-NC6)
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I/VA CT AR IIT REG PA/O OD S/M CCS FIN SN EVAL
NC5NC6
87%
I/VA= Impact & vulnerability assessment OD= Organizational development CT= Conceptual tool S/M= Surveillance & monitoring AR= Adaptation research CCS= Climate change scenario IIT= Infrastructure/innovation/technology FIN= Financial support REG= Regulation SN= Stakeholder networking PA/O= Public awareness & outreach EVAL= Evaluation
Lesnikowski, A., Ford, J.D., Biesbroek, G.R., Berrang-Ford, L. and J. Heymann (2016) National-level progress on adaptation Nature Climate Change 6, 261–264
Earlier work: Tracking city level adaptation (>1milion)
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Map by Malcolm Araos Egan
Araos, M. Berrang-Ford, L., Ford, J., Austin, S.E., and G.R. Biesbroek (2016) Climate change adaptation planning in large cities: a systematic global assessment, Environmental Science and Policy
1. Conceptual challenges for tracking
Problem framing: adaptation has different meanings in different contexts/regions
Symbolic policy: not all policy is substantively reducing climate risks (rhetoric vs reality)
Measurement of outcome: What is successful adaptation policy? What is the ‘target’? Quantify?
Attribution: how to causally connect output – outcome
Measure of integration: how to track mainstreaming when no longer labelled as adaptation?
5 Ford, J.D., Berrang-Ford, L., Biesbroek, R., Araos, M., Austin, S.E., and Lesnikowski L. (2015) Adaptation tracking for a post-2015 climate agreement. Nature Climate Change. 5, 967-969.
2. Methodological challenges for tracking
Meaningful tracking requires 4C’s:
Consistent definition of adaptation
Comprehensive data for all countries (missing data,
time series availability)
Comparable units of analysis and measurement
(different risk profiles; reporting bias)
Coherent measurements of substantive adaptation
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Ford, J., Berrang-Ford, L. (2016). The 4Cs of adaptation tracking: consistency, comparability, comprehensiveness, coherency. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 21(6), 839-859.
ATC: Adaptation tracking framework
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National baseline COUNTRY RISK PROFILE
(2001)
National baseline ADAPTATION
(2001)
Is there substantive progress in
adaptation policy?
Adapting to what? Climate risk metrics
How to adapt? Adaptation policy metrics
National adaptation planning/ priorities
(TARGETS)
(moment x in time)
Are adaptation goals and targets aligned with baseline risks?
Do policy goals and targets reflect substantive progress from baseline?
PROXIMITY TO TARGETS (Are we doing right things right?)
(moment x in time)
Have (intermediary)
targets been met?
ALIGNMENT WITH RISK (Are we doing the right things?)
(moment x in time)
CURRENT National adaptation policy & practice
Have the right targets been
met?
Is there evidence that adaptation policy has
contributed to decreased vulnerability? Are there
alternative explanations?
CURRENT climate risks and vulnerability
(moment x in time)
Have risks changed over
time?
Are targets still aligned with risks?
ATC: Metrics for adaptation tracking
Climate risk metrics Indicators for current and projected
climate impacts on vulnerable sectors and groups
● E.g. food systems; water; health;
ecosystem service; human habitat;
infrastructure;....
EXISTING DATA: UNISDR/GAR, World bank, Environmental Performance Index; ND-GAIN
Adaptation policy metrics Policy framing of climate risks
Policy goals and targets to reduce climate risks (also sectoral)
Instruments (substantive and procedural) to implement policy
● E.g. Financial schemes; organizational
and legislative reforms; knowledge
programs; adaptation investments;
M&E systems;...
NEW DATA NEEDED: portfolio assessment
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ATC: Metrics for adaptation tracking
Climate risk metrics Indicators for current and projected
climate impacts on vulnerable sectors and groups
● E.g. food systems; water; health;
ecosystem service; human habitat;
infrastructure;....
EXISTING DATA: UNISDR/GAR, World bank, Environmental Performance Index; ND-GAIN
Adaptation policy metrics Policy framing of climate risks
Policy goals and targets to reduce climate risks (also sectoral)
Instruments (substantive and procedural) to implement policy
● E.g. Financial schemes; organizational
and legislative reforms; knowledge
programs; adaptation investments;
M&E systems;...
NEW DATA NEEDED: portfolio assessment
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Needs and next steps for tracking
Set baseline for climate risk and adaptation policy
Shared goal of what is adaptation to climate change
Stricter guidelines on adaptation policy reporting under UNFCCC
New data on policy metrics for tracking adaptation performance, accountability and policy learning
Why are we tracking? For whom? Needs assessment
Key challenges still open: e.g. symbolic policy making; attribution problem
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Thank you!
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nl.linkedin.com/in/robbertbiesbroek
researchgate.net/profile/Robbert_Biesbroek
@R_Biesbroek
www.TRAC3.ca
https://scholar.google.nl/citations?user=cnX27xUAAAAJ&hl=nl
The ATC project is conducting a stakeholder needs assessment on Adaptation Metrics. Please contact Frances Wang ([email protected]) or visit www.TRAC3.ca to contribute