dr rui gomes - 2009 presentation on the millenium development goals

8/14/2019 Dr Rui Gomes - 2009 Presentation on the Millenium Development Goals

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The Millennium Development Goals:Approaches to Transformation

By Rui A. Gomes

06 July 2009


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Monitoring the Millennium Development Goals


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The state will be based on the rule of law

Prices will be stable and food suppliessecured. The economy and finances will bemanaged efficiently, transparently, and willbe free from corruption

Living standards and services will improve forall, and income will be fairly distributed

Production and employment will increase inall sectors

They will actively participate in economic,social and political development, promoting

social equality and national unity

People will be literate, knowledgeable andskilled. They will be healthy, and live a longproductive life

East Timor will be a democratic country with aprosperous society with adequate food,shelter and clothing for all people and a

sustainable environment

Timor-Leste: Vision 2020

The Millennium Declaration

The Millennium Declaration

Corresponding M D G


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Human Development Ranking 2008(1-179, 179 is the lowest)

Deve

lopingAsia

Pa

cificIslands

Fuelexporters

Timor-Leste

Sub-SaharanAfrica

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

179

Population growth, 2002-06

(in percent pa)

Tim

or-Leste

Fue

lExporters

Dev

eloping

Countries

Dev

elopingAsia

Sub

-SaharaAfrica

Pac

ificIslands

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Population growth is high but human

development indicators are low


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Human development indicators are low even in

oil-producing countries

Sierra Leone

MozambiqueChad

Papua New GuineaSudan

Myanmar

Sao Tome and Principe

Cape VerdeViet Nam

PhilippinesAzerbaijan

Thailand

Malaysia

Portugal

Timor-Leste

AustraliaNorway Iceland

NigeriaAngola

Cambodia

Indonesia

Singapore

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Oil-producing countries


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One in two Timorese is poor

Poverty is multidimensional

and it is not just about income

Vulnerable groups are the most

affected

Poverty affects men and

women differently

High unemployment rate

amongst youth and

underemployment

Domestic violence and crime

are prevalent

The currentThe current

situation...situation...


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50%

14%

36%

Timor-Leste may miss this target...Timor-Leste may miss this target...


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Food security is key to achieve GoalFood security is key to achieve Goal

1...1...


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In 2001, the children who died before they reached the age of fivewere 144/1000. In 2006, the rate dropped to 125/1000. Thetarget to be reached by 2015 will be 96/1000.


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Services are not down to suco and aldeia levels yet...


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The possibility of an outbreak of HIV/AIDS in near future...


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The incidence of malaria in Timor-Leste remains high...In 2000 thecases detected were 113/1000, and increased to 206/1000 in2006. The targt is to bring the incidence down to 45/1000 by2015...


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Unemployment continues to be a big challenge...It is expectedthat the high growth rate in the domestic economy wouldcreate more job opportunities, particularly to the young...


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Scaling-up for the MDGs

MDG

Target

Scaled-up plans to achieve the

MDGs based on country needs

assessments

YEAR

MDG

TARGET

DEADLINE

1990 2007 2015

MDG BASE

YEAR

Slow/little progress to date

2002


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FROM TECHNOCRATIC TO DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIC CHOICE FOR

ACHIEVING THE MDGs

EXISTING APPROACH

EXPERT DRIVEN

RIGID FRAMEWORK COST ESTIMATES DERIVED

FROM INACCURATEMODELS

ASYMMETRY

PROPOSED APPROACH

COUNTRY DRIVEN

FLEXIBLE PROCESS

EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY

MAKING

EQUITY


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Whats next?

Stimulate the domestic economy through

rural development

Invest in human capital

Invest in infrastructure

Promote peace and stability


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How much it will cost to reduce income poverty?

Table 1: Yearly Investment in US Dollars (million)

Required to Meet Poverty Headcount Ratio Target in

Rural Area

Anti-poor growth Neutral growth Pro-poor growth

2008 75.90 52.06 46.89

2009 66.92 53.18 45.80

2010 62.63 51.74 44.60

2011 63.56 51.97 43.63

2012 63.11 52.27 42.88

2013 64.23 50.31 42.20

2014 65.91 49.00 41.16

2015 64.19 48.35 40.31


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dr rui gomes - 2009 presentation on the millenium development goals

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