q Prepared by

q The Center for Business and Economic Research

q Lee Business School

q University of Nevada, Las Vegas

q May 30, 2012

1

Dr. Stephen M. Miller, DirectorLee Business SchoolUniversity of Nevada, Las VegasDecember 6, 2017

Wisdom on Forecasting

2

? ???

National Outlook

3

4

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

Billion

sof200

9Do

llars

U.S.RealandPotentialGDP

U.S.Recessions RealGDP Forecast +/-2xSE PotentialGDP

5

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

AnnualizedPercentChange

GrowthRateofU.S.RealandPotentialGDP

RealGDPGrowth Forecast PotentialRealGDPGrowth

Forecast

Indicators of Economic Activity and Confidence

ú No Signal of Recession?

ú Ninth Year of Expansion

6

Nevada Outlook

7

8

0

50

100

150

200

250

Index

CBERNevadaCoincidentIndex

NevadaRecessions NevadaCoincidentIndex

9

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Index

CBERNevadaLeadingIndex

NevadaRecessions NevadaLeadingIndex

10

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

ThousandsofJobs

NevadaEmployment

NevadaRecessions NevadaEmployment(SA)

11

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

Index(100=1990)

Non-farmEmployment- SelectedWesternStates(SA)

U.S.Recessions Nevada Arizona California Colorado NewMexico Utah

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

PercentUnemployed

NevadaUnemploymentRate

NevadaRecessions NevadaUnemploymentRate(SA)

13

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Percent

UnemploymentRate- SelectedStates(SA)

U.S.Recessions Nevada Arizona California Colorado NewMexico Utah

14

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Nevada Florida Illinois NewJersey Maryland Connecticut RhodeIsland Ohio Aizona U.S.Average

Percen

tPercentNegativeEquityMortgagesbyState

NegativeEquity

15

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Pe

rcen

tPercentNegativeEquityMortgagesinNevada

NegativeEquity

16

1.9%

3.9%

0.0%

1.0%

8.5%

1.6%

0.5%

1.9%

3.9%

0.1%

1.7%

9.4%

2.7%

1.9%

1.9%

5.6%

-0.1%

2.8%

4.3%

3.6%

-0.2%

1.9%

1.5%

-1.2%

3.4%

25.8%

1.3%

2.4%

1.9%

6.3%

-1.0%

3.4%

5.1%

0.9%

2.9%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

NevadaEconomicOutlook

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

VisitorVolume

GrossGaming Revenue

SF+MF Housing Permits

Employment

Unemployment

Total PersonalIncome

Population

Southern Nevada Outlook

17

18

40

90

140

190

240

290

Index

CBERSouthernNevadaCoincidentIndex

SouthernNevadaRecessions SouthernNevadaCoincidentIndex

19

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Index

CBERSouthernNevadaLeadingIndex

SouthernNevadaRecessions SouthernNevadaLeadingIndex

20

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

ThousandsofJobs

LasVegasEmployment

SouthernNevadaRecessions LasVegasEmployment(SA)

21

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

Index(100=1990)

Non-farmEmployment- SelectedWesternMetropolitanAreas(SA)

U.S.Recessions LasVegas Phoenix LosAngeles Denver SaltLakeCity Albuquerque

22

23

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Percent

UnemploymentRate- SelectedMetropolitanAreas(SA)

U.S.Recessions LasVegas Phoenix LosAngeles Denver SaltLakeCity Albuquerque

24

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Index

ClarkCountyTourismIndex

SouthernNevadaRecessions ClarkCountyTourismIndex

25

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

Number

ClarkCountyVisitorVolume

SouthernNevadaRecessions ClarkCountyVistorVolume(SA)

26

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Index

ClarkCountyConstructionIndex

SouthernNevadaRecessions SouthernNevadaConstructionIndex

27

0

20

40

60

80

100

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Percen

tofH

ousin

gSo

ldTha

tIsA

ffordab

leatM

edianIncome

NAHB/WellsFargoHousingOpportunityIndex:MountainWest

SouthernNevadaRecessions LasVegas-Paradise,NVPhoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale,AZ LosAngeles-LongBeach-Glendale,CADenver-Aurora-Lakewood,CO Albuquerque,NMSaltLakeCity,UT UnitedStates

28

0

5

10

15

20

25

30Pe

rcen

tLasVegasCommercialVacancyRates

SouthernNevadaRecessions IndustrialMarketVacancyRate OfficeMarketVacancyRate

RetailMarketVacancyRate ApartmentMarketVacancyRate

29

30

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

RecessionProbability:SouthernNevada

SouternNevadaRecessions RecessionProbability Forecast

Risks to the Outlook ú Changes in International Growth  China and emerging market economies  Euro area

ú Monetary Policy  Schedule of interest rate changes

ú Fiscal Policy  Infrastructure and defense spending  Corporate and individual tax cuts

31

32

Thank You

Knowledge within Reach

http://cber.unlv.edu

CBER

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