dr unsoy telecom trends 2010

8/9/2019 Dr Unsoy Telecom Trends 2010

1/14

Telecom Industr Trends

Dr.MehmetUnsoyManagingPartner


2/14

NetworkCapacity

&Economics

RoleofFemtocells

ContentDeliverySmarterDevices

YearofGoogle?NewServices,

Apps&AppStoresVideoExplosion

Globalization&

Consolidation

CloudComputing

& ServicesInnovation!

2/7/2010 MUNSOYLTD 2


3/14

Notjustnetworkconvergencebutalsoaccessconvergence,device

,

Roleof

IP

Telephony,

VoIP,

Video

over

IP,

anything

over

IP

Variousregulatoryissues/challenges

Wireless/mobileisthehugegrowthmarket

Butalsobroadband,cable,satellitegrowthopportunities

Homeisamajorbattleground

Homegateways,Femtocells,homeautomation

Variousverticals:entertainment,healthcare.energy,etc

Personal Communicationisamajorbattleground

Mobilehandsets,

Smartphones

Consumers,prosumers,andenterprises

InternetofThings NextFrontier!

MajoropportunitiesfortelecomoperatorsinM2Mmarketgrowth,e.g.SmartGrid



4/14

Bandwidthdemandisgrowingalmostexponentially

eo s ema orcon r u or, mpac ng o w re essan roa an

networks

Morespectrumwillbeneededformobilenetworks;butalsomore

e c en useo espec rum; soneo eanswers

Morenetworkcapacitywillneedtobedeployed,butnetworkeconomics

willbe

very

critical

Networkoptimizationandbackhaul/accessoptimizationwillbeamajor

areaoffocus

CloudComputingwillbepartoftheanswer moreonthislater!

Alsoneed

better

distribution

of

content

,better

allocation

of

processing

betweennetworkanddevices

Needbettertoolsforpolicymanagement,and

NeedregulatoryflexibilityreNetNeutrality,etc.



5/14

NextphaseofInternet,ubiquitouslyavailable,fromanydevice,anywhere

andanytime

HSPA,LTEtechnologiesforwirelessnetworks,Smartphones,browsers,

Apps,andServices

ContentisKing,butcontentdeliveryisandwillcontinuetobeverycritical

aswell; ContentDeliverywillbetheKingMaker

Advertisin willbever im ortantelementofthenewbusinessmodels

BattlesbetweenAppsandBrowsers

BattlesforSmartphoneOperatingSystems

,

virtualizedinfrastructures

Lotsofroomforinnovationonboththetechnologyandthebusiness



6/14

TherearevariousrationalesforFemtocells;butmostcriticaloneisnot

coverage,butratherbandwidthexplosionandnetworkeconomics

CostofFemtocellshasbeenamajorbottleneckforwidescale

deployment; butexpectthecost/pricepointstocomedown

ShouldbeakeyelementoffutureMobileInternetandconvergence

strategy

Partofthebattleforthehomeandtheoffice

Roomforlotsofinnovationinmerging/integratingFemtocells

Intohomeandofficeenvironment,butalso

Into thetelecomnetworks

Majoropportunities

might

be

on

new

apps

/services

offered

through

Femtocells,

Remotehealthcare,SmartGrid,ContentDeliverytoHome



7/14

TheysayContentisKing,buttimely,costeffectiveandhighquality

deliveryofthiscontentisequallyasimportant. Otherwise,contentisnot

worthanything!

Telecomoperatorsareinanidealpositiontooffer

timely,costeffectiveandhighqualitydeliveryofcontent,

tousersathome,atworkandonmobile

Alreadystarted

with

services

like

IPTV,

home

entertainment,

etc.

PartnershipsandJVs,especiallywithcontentownersanddistributors

M&As,especiallyforcontentdeliveryplatforms/networks

Business model challen es but re uires business innovation!

Advertisingwillbeanimportantcomponentofnewbusinessmodels



8/14

Smartphonesaregrowing;500Million SmartphonesbyYE2009;most

MobileInternet

is

the

key

driver

for

Smartphones;

Internet

Access

in

developingmarketwillbeprimarilythroughmobiles&Smartphoneswill

Apple,iPhoneandiTunesrevolutionizedthemobileworldinthelast2

years u oog ean n ro scom ngs rong;po en a yma orc a enger o

iPhone;givingmorechoicestousers/operators;

GooglesnewNexusOnehasseveralrevolutionaryelements

AppStores

are

avery

critical

element

for

Smartphone

business

Smartedge dumbpipedichotomy;networksneedtofightback

NetworkasaService(NaaS)concepthelpingoperatorstoregain/

maintainservices andfightbackonthevaluechainbattle



9/14

ItisnotjustYouTube,IPTV,orMobileTV,

VideowillbeveryprominentinalmostallaspectsofTMTsector

ExpecttoseevideoaspartofdatastreamstriggeredbymostSmartphones,

ExpecttoseevideoaspartofthefabricofalloralmostallfutureApps

MajorverticalssuchasEntertainment(inc.,Games),SocialNetworking,

Healthcare,Education,Security,Military

ThreeScreen

Strategies

for

TV,

PC

and

Handset

numerous

new

business

opportunities

Morecapacity,moreoptimization,moreservicebundling,butalsoneed

newbusinessmodels

Continuoustechnology

innovation

around

Video

(3D

TV

was

the

hot

item

at2010CESshowinLasVegas)

Wealsoneedinnovationaroundbusinessmodels,includingnew

advertisingparadigms



10/14

Hugecommitmenttotelecom,fromvoicetovideo,search,advertising,

mo e, , rowser,apps,serv ces, ocat on,aswe asnewareas Energy

Targetingconsumers,

prosumers,

and

all

sizes

of

enterprises

Pushingforopen &netneutralitybutalsoworkingverticals,with&

withoutoperators

RecentlaunchofNexusOneisagoodexample

Lotsof

technology

innovations,

e.g.

speech,

touch

screen,

processing,

storage,

etc

Soldwithoperators,butunlockedversiontobeusedwithanyoperator(newforUSA)

WillcontinuetohavefarmoreinfluencethanMicrosoftontelecomsector

Telecomoperatorsneedto

Collaborate(not

confront

Google),

e.g.

potential

partnerships

Butalsostandtheirgroundinthevaluechainwiththeirownstrategy,

ca abilities servicesandbusinessmodels



11/14

NetworkasaService(NaaS)concepthybridservices/apps;mayopenup

newopportunities

CloudComputingservices nextpage

A Stores thereare34differentt es ursuedb different la ers

operatorsneedtofindtheirnichemarkettosucceedinAppStorebusiness

LBSserviceswillbeveryimportant,andcriticalfortelecomoperatorsto

leveragetheir

assets

UnifiedCommunication(UC)servicesarethecurrentfocusforEnterprise

Securityservices/appswillbeveryrelevantfortelecomoperatorstoplay

NaaS andCloudComputingcancometogetherandenableoperatorsto

maintaintheirpositioninthevaluechain,i.e.avoidbeingadumbpipe!



12/14

Availabilityofsoftware,processingpower&storageonaasneededbasis

ReducesCAPEX,providesagility,reducedcost,deviceindependence,

reliability,scalability,

security,

reduced

maintenance

Includes InfrastructureasaService(IaaS)+Platformasa Service(PaaS),+

SoftwareasaService(SaaS);Highstrategicfitwithtelecomindustryassets

Already$16Bbusinessin2009,andwillgrowto$43Bbusinessby2012

Earlyexamples

of

Operators:

Orange

=flexible

computing;

Verizon=

ComputingasaService; Vodafone=servicessuchasPCbackup;O2=

O2Bluebook;BT=globalhostedUCservices

Willbetransformativeforthetelecomindustryforthenext35years

Keyquestions

for

telecom

operators

are

HowtoestablishstrongroleandnotlettheInternetcompaniestosteeltheshow

HowtoleveragekeyassetstoleverageCloudcomputing&servicesandbecomeaSmart

Pipe



13/14

Innovationisthelifebloodofanygrowthindustry,includingTelecom

sector

Technicalinnovationisverycritical;howeverbusinessinnovationinthe

telecomsectorislaggingbehind;itisslowanddifficulttoachieve!

Howtostimulateinnovation,howtocoach/steerinnovation,andhowto

commercializeinnovation?Thesearesomeofthekeyquestions!

Si nificantdro inVentureCa ital VC investmentsrecentl es eciall telecomisloosingappealfast;alsodevelopingmarketslikeTurkeyis

lackingVCinfrastructure

Weneed:

Angelinvesting,

VCs

and

Private

Equity

firms

re

engaged

and

interested

in

the

sector

Telecomecosystemplayers mayneedmoreemphasisonR&Daswellasworkingwith

entrepreneursatpromisingstartups

Operatorsneedtoexploreandinnovateatnewbusinessmodels



14/14

Globalization

Notanewtrend,butincreasedemphasisnow,duetoliberalizationandeconomiesof

scale

Noartificialboundaries;operatorsareexpandingtheirreachgeographically,whereverit

Thistrendwillcontinue,especiallyintothedevelopingcountries/markets

Organizationscouldbegeographical,segmentbased,functionalorproductbased

Groupfunctions

and

collaborations

with

regional

organizations,

etc.

Consolidations

Relatedtoglobalizationoftelecomcompanies

Significantconsolidationalreadyatthetelecomequipmentsupplierslevel

Economiesof

scale

will

also

trigger

further

consolidation

of

telecom

operators

Thiswillmostlikelyaccelerateinthenext35years


dr unsoy telecom trends 2010

Documents